PRICE RETREAT?

Reader John Hess sent the following note regarding my Sunday column headlined "Housing future uncertain, but certainly not good."

Hello Greg,
I just wanted to comment on the article. I thought that it was more inline with what’s going on than the spin normally generated by Realtors and people within the RE industry. On another note, there are places that are already affected negatively on real estate and cannot get back their 2004 prices that they paid on their home even though we are supposed to be in the strongest selling period and with much of their equity gained from 2005. I created this within a day and found these listings very easily. Here is the link: http://forsakencraft.com/proof.htm At the moment there are 70 bank owned homes and 1416 total for sale in the city of Temecula. That’s 1 in 20 homes for sale that have been foreclosed on. South Riverside County is not looking great for now.

I followed up his note with a phone call Monday morning.
Hess is a roofer and his wife is a teacher. They live in San Bernardino and he has good reason for interest in the Temecula market.
His wife has applied for a teaching job there.
Follow the link above to check out his research.
The results are giving him pause about buying right now, though he has the cash for a downpayment.
Hess sold a quarter-acre lot in Califrnia City and netted $85,000.
And he's content to sit on the sidelines and watch the market.
It's the peak buying season but the market he's interested in is soft.
It should soften more in fall and winter and that might be the time to make a move.
And he's not worried about interest rates moving up.
"From my view interest have no impact on what I'm going to buy. The price does. I don't care about the bottom line (not this blog) in the future I care about paying off the home.. Rates have no impact on what I'm going to buy. The price does."
We'll see where he is in the fall.

FORECLOSURE CHECK
Sunday's column also carried the opinion of Inland Empire investor Bruce Norris that foreclosure activity will soar 1,500 percent by 2010, which could be a good buying opportunity if folks like Hess are inclinded to wait that long.
DataQuick Information Systems analyst did a quick check on foreclosure active this year for the Woodland Hills zip code 91367.
He reported that four homes have were foreclosed on and that 32 owners received default notices, the first step in the process.
As for Norris' prediction it might not be out of lince since activity is still close to record low levels, Karevoll said.
So maybe that might not work out to such a great buying opportunity after all, just a more normal market.
Karevoll also knows Norris, saying he's interesting even when he's wrong.
And Norris has been right in the past, sort of.
"Back in 1997 he was the only one who though prices would double in five years. And he was more than right."

I'll be on vacation until next Monday.

I caught up with DataQuick Informatioin Systems analyst John Karevoll on Monday and had his check the foreand went over some of Hess' concerrns.