<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<feed version="0.3" xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xml:lang="en">
<title>The Bottom Line by Greg Wilcox</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/" />
<modified>2008-05-01T22:49:19Z</modified>
<tagline></tagline>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2009:/bottomline//56</id>
<generator url="http://www.movabletype.org/" version="4.25">Movable Type</generator>
<copyright>Copyright (c) 2008, Steven Rosenberg</copyright>

<entry>
<title>United Online picks FTD</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2008/05/united-online-p.html" />
<modified>2008-05-01T22:49:19Z</modified>
<issued>2008-05-01T22:42:03Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2008:/bottomline//56.58080</id>
<created>2008-05-01T22:42:03Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Valley-based United Online, which previously gobbled up Classmates.com, has plucked another well-known company for its portfolio, FTD, the floral network. United Online/FTD will probably be a good combo because 1-800-flowers.com has a lot of stickiness in the online space, and...</summary>
<author>
<name>Steven Rosenberg</name>
<url>http://insidesocal.com/click</url>
<email>steven.rosenberg@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>Valley-based United Online, which previously gobbled up Classmates.com, has plucked another well-known company for its portfolio, <a href="http://www.dailynews.com/ci_9114256">FTD, the floral network</a>.</p>

<p>United Online/FTD will probably be a good combo because <a href="http://1800flowers.com">1-800-flowers.com</a> has a lot of stickiness in the online space, and United can only help FTD expand in that area.</p>

<p>At least that's the theory.</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>DONE DEALS</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/08/done-deals.html" />
<modified>2008-03-25T23:29:43Z</modified>
<issued>2006-08-30T23:20:51Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.3034</id>
<created>2006-08-30T23:20:51Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Van Nuys-based Cherokee Inc. (CHKE) said its client Camp Beverly Hills LLC, has entered into an exclusive international license agreement with Ruppert BV of The Netherlands. The territory covers Belgium, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Germany and The United Kingdom. Detailed terms...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>Van Nuys-based Cherokee Inc. (CHKE) said its client Camp Beverly Hills LLC, has <br />
entered into an exclusive international license agreement with Ruppert  BV of The Netherlands. The territory covers Belgium, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Germany and The United Kingdom. Detailed terms of the multi-year agreement were not disclosed, but it includes a wide range of men's, women's and children's apparel categories.</p>

<p><strong>NEW STORE</strong><br />
Calabasas-based The Cheesecake Factory Inc. (CAKE) said today announced it opened its 109th store at the Colonie Center Mall in Albany, New York on August 29, 2006. The restaurant contains approximately 10,800 square feet and 300 seats.</p>

<p><strong>DISNEY PROMOTION</strong><br />
Burbank-based The Walt Disney Co. has named Joe Schott  Vice President and <br />
Executive Managing Director, Walt Disney Attractions Japan and <br />
Disneyland International. He's a 25-year veteran of the company.</p>

<p><br />
<strong>DIGITAL DEAL</strong><br />
El Segundo-based DIRECTV Inc. boasts its achieved universal dominance <br />
in live music television with a series of recently added international <br />
distribution deals for its original weekly concert series, CD USA. The original program has featured performances by Kelly Clarkson, The Goo Goo Dolls, Jewel, Ashlee Simpson and the Pussycat Dolls, among other top acts, since its January debut.<br />
DIRECTV, in association with Blaze Television, will expand the CD USA <br />
brand through News Corp.'s international offerings.</p>

<p><strong>MORE HOUSING SLUMBER</strong><br />
Home buying activity continues to weaken, according to the latest survey released Wednesday  by the Washington, D.C.-based Mortgage Bankers Association.</p>

<p>For the week ending Aug. 25 it's index that tracks loan application volume fell 2.3 percent from the prior week and off 22.4 percent from the year-ago period.</p>

<p>The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 1.6 percent from the previous week and the Refinance Index increased slightly to 1609.2 from 1608.5.</p>

<p>The PI is now at its lowest level since November 2003.</p>

<p>The association said that the refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 41.5 percent of total applications from 40.6 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 26.8 percent of total applications from 26.4 percent the previous week.</p>

<p>The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.39 percent from 6.38 percent, with points increasing to 1.03 from 0.98 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.</p>

<p>And the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.06 percent from 6.04 percent, with points decreasing to 1.06 from 1.12 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.</p>

<p>The average one-year ARM rate increased to 5.97 percent from 5.91 percent, with points increasing to 0.91 from 0.82 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.</p>

<p>The MBA survey covers about 50 percent of all the nation's retail residential mortgage originations.<br />
</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>HOME BUILDING COOLDOWN</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/08/home-building-c.html" />
<modified>2006-08-28T19:00:39Z</modified>
<issued>2006-08-28T18:59:49Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.2964</id>
<created>2006-08-28T18:59:49Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Home construction activity plunged 35.1 percent in July from June and condominium and apartment activity cratered 56.8 percent, said the California Building Industry Association. The overall market is down 43 percent from June. The news is not all grim though,...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>Home construction activity plunged 35.1 percent in July from June and condominium and apartment activity  cratered 56.8 percent, said the California Building Industry Association. The overall market is down 43 percent from June.<br />
The news is not all grim though, noted the Sacramento-based association.<br />
It's release about last month's activity, as measured by the number of building permits pulled started this way.<br />
â€œAlthough overall housing starts fell nearly 43 percent since June of this year, residential construction is still on target for production of 180,000 units...â€?<br />
CBIA Chief Economist Alan Nevin said that new-home construction in California is expected to continue cooling off for the remainder of 2006 as the housing market adjusts from a superheated state to more normal conditions.<br />
During the year's first seven months single-family activity is down 22.6 percent from a year ago. Multi-family activity is up 4.5 percent.<br />
Total activity between January and July is off 15.9 percent from the year ago period.<br />
Nevin said that builders will continue to reduce their standing inventory of unsold homes that are under construction or completed, and are now using aggressive marketing techniques to reduce their inventory.<br />
â€œAt the present rate, we anticipate that the inventory will be nearly depleted by the end of the third quarter.â€? Nevin said. â€œFrom that point on, builders will only build what they can pre-sell.â€?<br />
In the Los Angeles area activity fell 39 percent from June and but is up 9 percent year-to-date.<br />
</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>LONG BEACH TAKES A HIT</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/08/long-beach-take.html" />
<modified>2006-08-18T18:01:18Z</modified>
<issued>2006-08-18T17:59:03Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.2726</id>
<created>2006-08-18T17:59:03Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">It&apos;s a black Friday at the big Boeing Co. plant in Long Beach where workers received word this morning that production on the C-17 military cargo plane will end, a decision likely to eliminate 11,500 jobs, many of them in...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>It's a black Friday at the big Boeing Co. plant in Long Beach where workers received word this morning that production on the C-17 military cargo plane will end, a decision likely to eliminate 11,500 jobs, many of them in Southern California.<br />
 Workers got the news via a videotaped statement from Jim Albaugh, president and chief executive officer of the company's Integrated Defense Systems unit. Dave Bowman, Boeing's vice president and C-17 program director, weighed in live.<br />
The company's terse news release follows.<br />
Due to the lack of U.S. government orders for the C-17 military cargo aircraft, The Boeing Company is directing program suppliers to stop work on uncommitted airplanes. This move will be the first step in an orderly shut down of the production supply chain should no further orders be received from the U.S. government. <br />
For over a year, Boeing spent its own money protecting the C-17 supplier base. This investment was intended to keep the production line viable while the U.S. Government and Boeing pursued international orders, and to allow time for the U.S. Government to update its post-9/11 mobility requirements, if they chose to do so. During that time Boeing received international orders and commitments for more than a dozen of the advanced air lifters. Congress has added funding for up to three more as part of its recent 2007 budget deliberations. However, when the orders are totaled, there are not enough to sustain continued production beyond mid-2009. <br />
Since late 2005, Boeing has stressed the need for a commitment from the U.S. Government for continued C-17 procurement or the company would be forced to make the difficult decision to begin winding down the production line. <br />
This action will ultimately affect the 5,500 Boeing jobs in California, Missouri, Georgia, and Arizona, directly tied to the C-17, and the program's nationwide supplier workforce that totals more than 25,000 people. Nearly 700 companies in 42 states provide parts and services that go into each C-17. <br />
â€œThe C-17 is one of the Defense Department's most successful acquisition programs ever,â€? Ron Marcotte, vice president and general manager of Boeing Global Mobility Systems, said in the release. â€œNo one questions its operational value. But we can't continue carrying the program without additional orders from the U.S. Government.â€? <br />
The stop-work orders affect long-lead items from suppliers that, in many cases, are built 34 months before a C-17 is delivered. Boeing is re-evaluating the financial impact should the U.S. government not order additional C-17s, and may incur costs aside from any recovered from the U.S. government. <br />
Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., said that he learned of the decision Thursday afternoon.<br />
â€œIt's a tragedy for Long Beach, it's a tragedy California and a tragedy for the nation. You are losing jobs in a very unique capacity that are going to be hard to replicate in the future.â€?<br />
In addition to the jobs at the plant Kyser said that about 6,000 others are spread among suppliers in the region.<br />
In Los Angeles County the average average aircraft manufacturing wage is $$73,200. And each job at the plan creates 3.4 other elsewhere in the economy.<br />
Kyser also wonders why the government has five fighter programs in production or development.<br />
â€œThere are a lot of people concerned about the future airlift capacity for the U.S. military <br />
Kyser said. <br />
Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a <br />
Republican,  and Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald, D-Long Beach, are among the elected  leaders who have urged the Bush Administration to keep the program alive.<br />
The bottom line: The local aerospace sector is taking a big hit at the same time the housing market is cooling. Sort of feels like the early 1990s all over again.     </p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>HOUSING MARKET SLUMBER</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/08/housing-market.html" />
<modified>2006-08-14T23:57:35Z</modified>
<issued>2006-08-14T23:46:54Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.2613</id>
<created>2006-08-14T23:46:54Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">With August winding down we&apos;ll get a better grasp on just how broad and deep is this malaise that&apos;s settled over the residential real estate market. We already know that in the San Fernando Valley it&apos;s reached Betty Grable status,...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>With August winding down we'll get a better grasp on just how broad and deep is this malaise that's settled over the residential real estate market.<br />
We already know that in the San Fernando Valley it's reached Betty Grable status, meaning its got legs.<br />
DataQuick Information Systems' monthly report, which usually comes out on the the15th (Tuesday) focuses on Southern California.<br />
Past reports show that the broad Los Angeles County market is still chugging along in terms or price increases, although those gains now look tepid compared to the past several years. And San Diego County's median price has already fallen under the year-ago level one month before bouncing back up above it the next.<br />
San Diego was the first market to take off and the first to retreat.<br />
Others in the region are expected to follow suit.<br />
The California Association of Realtors July tally follows the final week of the month.<br />
And this market turn has been so strong that the association's economists made a big downward revision to this year's sales forecast a couple of months ago.<br />
The bottom line: There are winners and losers in both bull and bear markets. <br />
AFFORDABILITY<br />
It wasn't that long ago that CAR  rolled out its Housing Affordability Index every month. It tracked how many households in the state and major metro areas could afford to buy a median priced home two months ago. <br />
Notice you haven't seen that index for a very long while. The association published its last one on Jan. 12.<br />
Turns out there was a problem. Even though rising prices continued to drive down afford ability sales continued to rise.<br />
Something had to be wrong.<br />
There was. The index had a couple of problems.<br />
It was not capturing who was buying. One component assumed that no more than 30 percent of a household's gross income could go toward the house payment and that a 20 percent down payment was required.<br />
Lenders made loans on higher income limits and lower down payment requirements.<br />
About a year ago the Los Angeles-based association quit issuing the index and said it was going to be reworked.<br />
Now it appears that was a tougher job that initially thought. The original plan called for the re-jiggered index to be rolled out in the first quarter. The it was pushed back to the middle of this month, which is now.<br />
Association spokesman Mark Giberson said that the new and better index comes out on Thursday. Actually, it will be two indexes.<br />
One tracking first time buyers and the second repeat buyers.<br />
Affordability will now be tracked on a quarterly, rather than monthly, basis.<br />
The first one will cover this year's first and second quarters and compare them with the like period a year ago.<br />
"Both have different assessments on down payments, loan products and that type of thing," Giberson said.<br />
Here's a recap of the last index in its old form, which tracked affordability in November, 2005.<br />
It fell an annual 5 percentage points and slipped to record lows in seven areas, including Los Angeles County. Rising interest were partly to blame them.'<br />
They will be partly to blame now, I suppose.<br />
As the year wound down just 14 percent of the state's households could afford a home priced at the then median of $548,770.<br />
The record low for the state was 13 percent and that came twice in 1989.<br />
In Los Angeles County the median priced home cost $575,310 last November, within reach of just 11 percent of households.<br />
The biggest drop then, 16 percent, cane in the High Desert region, which includes the Antelope Valley. There 24 percent of households could afford a house priced at the median $320,860.<br />
The bottom line: The index may be new but I suspect somethings will remain unchanged.<br />
Affordability will lower this year than last year for both first timers and repeat buyers.<br />
And the High Desert will be one of the most affordable regions in the state.<br />
.</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>THE BIG BANG</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/08/the-big-bang.html" />
<modified>2006-08-01T23:19:46Z</modified>
<issued>2006-08-01T23:18:14Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.2362</id>
<created>2006-08-01T23:18:14Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">They are going to have a blast by the Los Angeles Harbor in San Pedro on Sunday. Get up before the sun if you want to see it live. Explosives experts plan to implode the former Pacific Trade Center to...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>They are going to have a blast by the Los Angeles Harbor in San Pedro on Sunday.<br />
Get up before the sun if you want to see it live.<br />
Explosives experts plan to implode the former Pacific Trade Center to make way for the Vue, which will be the seaside city's largest high rise condo complex.<br />
Also its first high rise residence.<br />
And it  will be the first implosion in the City of Angeles in 10 years (if you don't count the administration of former Mayor James Hahn. His sister, Janice, represents San Pedro on the City Council).<br />
The 12-story center has been vacant for 10 years.<br />
The 121,966 square foot center was built in 1964.<br />
According to a news release touting the event, â€œfive pounds of explosives strategically placed in selected supporting areasâ€? will bring down the building.<br />
â€œWhen discharged, the explosives will allow gravity to pull down the building in a controlled manner.â€?<br />
Maybe.<br />
In any event, this Galaxy Commercial Holdings LLC can start construction once the rubble is cleared. The Vue is a $175 million project with 318 units.<br />
It's the largest development on the waterfront in Old Town San Pedro and the building had the second most successful sales launch in Southern California history, hitting more than $100 million in sales in two days, according to the developer.<br />
The Bottom Line: An implosion to herald a new housing project is interesting timing since the housing market seems to be imploding.</p>

<p>THE BIG DEAL<br />
Broadreach Capital Partners, a Palo Alto-based private equity firm that invests in commercial real estate, made a big play today, paying $209 million for an 18-building portfolio in Southern California.<br />
It was sold by The Shidler Group, in partnership with Angelo, Gordon & Co.<br />
Shidler acquired the portfolio in late 2004 for $138.5 million and invested more than $6 million in improvements.<br />
The buildings have 165 tenets and are 82 percent occupied.<br />
"There is a tremendous amount of demand for well-located, high-quality office properties. With the continuous flow of capital into the commercial real estate sector, we felt the timing to be opportune to sell into a very strong investment market and to prune our portfolio of select assets as part of our capital recycling program," said Matt Root, a partner in The Shidler Group.<br />
Tenets include Catellus Development, the City of Los Angeles, California Department of Motor Vehicles, USA Today and Verizon.<br />
The buildings are in nine projects.<br />
Ten of the buildings are in the Los Angeles area.<br />
One is Glendale Corporate Center, a 111,072 square foot building at 425 Corporate Street in Glendale.<br />
The Shidler Group is a national real estate organization that actively acquires commercial real estate for its own account. It currently owns and operates over 8 million square feet of commercial property throughout Texas, Arizona, Hawaii and Southern California. Since its founding in 1972, The Shidler Group and its affiliates have facilitated the acquisition of over 145 million square feet of commercial property.</p>

<p>THE BIG PICTURE<br />
Susquehanna Financial Group homebuilding analyst Stephen East offers the following take on The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index released this morning (Monday). <br />
The PHSI was up versus last month and better than consensus expectations.<br />
â€œ Net, the flattening picture of the slowdown continued in June for the PHSI - a big positive in our mind. As far as future reports go, August looks to have the toughest comparisons to last year, consequently that report should go a long way toward telling us where this housing market is in its transition,â€? East wrote in an e-mail.<br />
He believes a decline of 9.6 percent is a very manageable drop and all else being equal, investors should feel relieved by this latest data point.<br />
Here's what caught his eye. <br />
The South region was up 2.5 percent monthly and is now only down 4.8 percent annually.<br />
The West region fell an annual 14.2 percent and it was flat monthly.<br />
â€œStabilization in the West will be key for the builders and it looks like we are seeing that occur. However, the upcoming August to October time frame will be difficult for the West region given strong activity there in '05.â€?<br />
 While that is not necessarily the case for the South, as Y/Y comps generally look reasonable with only August being more difficult. <br />
The PHSI measures contracts signed for existing single family and multi-family homes, but there is no breakout between the two types.</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>BY THE NUMBERS</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/07/by-the-numbers.html" />
<modified>2006-07-25T23:40:17Z</modified>
<issued>2006-07-25T23:21:29Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.2263</id>
<created>2006-07-25T23:21:29Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">BY THE NUMBERS Home sales numbers for the state and the nation always come out at the tail end of every month. The National Association of Realtors releases its release and so does the California Association of Realtors. And different...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>BY THE NUMBERS</p>

<p>Home sales numbers for the state and the nation always come out at the tail end of every month.<br />
The National Association of Realtors releases its release and so does the California Association of Realtors.<br />
And different reporters have a different take.<br />
Two dispatches I saw on the wire reported that sales nationally fell 1.3 percent in June.<br />
Only one included the year-over-year decline of 8.9 percent.<br />
That's not surprising, since the NAR put the monthly decline at the front their releases second paragraph and the annual number at the back.<br />
Here's the headline. â€œExisting-Home Sales Flattening, Prices Cooling.â€?<br />
CAR, on the other hand, cast its weight with the year-ago. Here's their headline. â€œCAR reports median price of a home in California at $575,800 in June, up 6.2 percent from a year ago; sales decreased 26.3 percent.<br />
Which one offers a better sense of the market.<br />
Robert Kleinhenz, the deputy chief economist at the state association, said that the monthly market moves get a lot of national attention.<br />
That might not be a good thing.<br />
Real estate markets are lethargic beasts.<br />
â€œThe housing market is being viewed and treated a lot more like financial markets which turn on a dime. This moves at a somewhat slower pace,â€? he said.<br />
Market analyst Nima Nattagh agrees.<br />
â€œMonth-to-month trends tend to be influenced by seasonal factors where on a yearly basis there is a much more long term view of the changes in the markets.â€?<br />
That's why publicly traded companies earnings reports are compared to the year-ago period, a former editor once told me.<br />
The bottom line: To get a sense of where this market is headed, look back a while in time.<br />
</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>NEWS ALERT</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/07/news-alert.html" />
<modified>2006-07-24T23:40:21Z</modified>
<issued>2006-07-24T21:09:11Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.2246</id>
<created>2006-07-24T21:09:11Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">NEWS ALERT The California Association of Realtors will issue its June market report on Tuesday (7/25) and I expect it will be similar in tone to last week&apos;s assessments from DataQuick Information Systems and the Southland Regional Association of Realtors....</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>NEWS ALERT<br />
The California Association of Realtors will issue its June market report on Tuesday (7/25) and I expect it will be similar in tone to last week's assessments from DataQuick Information Systems and the Southland Regional Association of Realtors.<br />
Median price increases will mostly be in single digits and a few areas could fall below levels. <br />
Sales will be well under June 2005. Inventory will be well above a year- ago.<br />
The bottom line: The good news for potential buyers continues.<br />
RATE WATCH<br />
Two big rate trackers crunched last weeks numbers and here's their take.<br />
First the Web suite bankrate.com<br />
MORTGAGES<br />
 Rate: 6.89 percent (30-year fixed)Â Average Points: 0.3Â ... <br />
HOME EQUITY PRODUCTS<br />
 Rates: 8.23 percent (line of credit); 7.87 percent (loan)Â ... <br />
AUTO LOANS <br />
Rates: 7.96 percent (60-month, new car); 8.91 percent (36-month, used car)... <br />
CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT <br />
Yields: 3.80 percent (1-year CD yield); 4.28 percent (5-year CD yield)...<br />
CREDIT CARDS<br />
Rates: 13.08 percent (standard fixed); 14.64 percent (standard variable)...</p>

<p>And here is HSH Associates Market Trends snapshot.<br />
The biggest tracker of mortgage information found that rates eased back a bit last week averaging 6.88 percent, down .03 points from the prior week, for the a 30-year fixed rate home loan. The rate for a 15-year loan averaged 6.53 percent and the one-year adjustable was 6.15 percent.<br />
Average rates were slightly higher in  California: 6.93 percent for the 30-year, 6.58 for the 15-year and  6.18  for the one-year adjustable.<br />
The company notes that the Fed has been on a rate hike warpath with 17 consecutive increases, in its battle with inflation.<br />
But inflation is still powering ahead. The next Fed meeting is Aug. 8 and it was thought another rate hike is likely. But last Wednesday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress the Fed is not convinced another rate hike is warranted. And some of those earlier rate hikes are starting to slow economic growth in some sectors, like housing construction, HSH noted.<br />
Here's their take.<br />
Two related but time-gapped arcs are at play.<br />
The first is growth. Ultra-low interest rates goosed it to life several  years ago and then it was propelled by cheap money. It climbed the first third of a rainbow arc over a couple of years, and powered through the second portion in a hot streak over the past year or two, and is now entering the third stage, one with rather a more downward trajectory (and hopefully slowing its momentum as it does).<br />
Inflation is the second arc. It had a later beginning, when in trying to stave off deflation and boost growth, the Fed (and other central banks) flooded the economy with cash and low interest rates. After starting sluggishly, this arc too -- now probably well into its second stage -- seems to still be on an upward trend, with higher inflation readings now and more still likely to come for a time.<br />
The question is: When will this arc hit its third section, where inflation has peaked and begun to dwindle? The answer will depend upon how quickly and how far the first arc travels, the company reasons.<br />
â€œIn order to get the inflation arc to reach and pass its apex, we'll need the growth arc to move past - maybe well past - its own. Growth will likely need to be substandard for a while, perhaps well below the Fed's forecast of 3.25% GDP for 2006 in order to exert meaningful influence on the inflation arc. As well, this will require patience by investors in the face of what could be at times unpleasant inflation news, and a steady hand on the part of the Federal Reserve to not overdo monetary tightening,â€? the company said in it's analysis.<br />
The bottom line: It will all play out in the months ahead.</p>

<p></p>

<p></p>

<p><br />
 </p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>Coming Up</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/07/coming-up.html" />
<modified>2006-07-17T20:35:43Z</modified>
<issued>2006-07-17T20:33:47Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.2146</id>
<created>2006-07-17T20:33:47Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Home sales reports on the San Fernando Vallery and Southern California are due out on Tuesday (7/18/06). The Bottom Line: This market is continuing to back-slide into the 1990s. Someone who bought a median-priced home ($578,500) last June saw a...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>Home sales reports on the San Fernando Vallery and Southern California are due out on Tuesday (7/18/06).<br />
The Bottom Line: This market is continuing to back-slide into the 1990s.<br />
Someone who bought a median-priced home ($578,500) last June saw a 3.7 percent return on their investment investment in the ensuing 12 months.<br />
Those who bought at the median in June 2004 reaped a 14.6 percent gain.</p>

<p>Transaction:<br />
 Madison Partners has arranged the $12.2 million sale of Toluca Lake Medical Center in Burbank to Lexham Private Investors, LLC.<br />
 Built in 1964, the property consists of a 5-story plus-penthouse building of  41,388 square feet of medica and office space.<br />
It's on a 43,579 square foot at the southwest corner of Riverside and Screenland drives. The property also has a  31,080 square foot parking lot.<br />
This is  part of a portfolio of 12 properties. The owner Blue Real Estate hired Bob Safai, principal with Madison Partners, to sell it off.  The medical center is the second sale and five are pending..<br />
 â€œThe brisk pace and volume of investment sales in the market has not yet let up,â€? Safai said in a statement.  â€œThe Tri-Cities area is a supply constrained market with an extremely strong medical office market â€?. <br />
Madison Partners is a Los Angeles-based commercial real estate firm.</p>

<p>Foreclosure Update<br />
Also on Tuesday Realty RealtyTrac _ an online marketplace for foreclosure properties _  will release its June 2006 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. Here's a peak. It will show that 88,195 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure during the month, a decrease of 5 percent from the previous month, but still a 17 percent increase from June 2005.<br />
 The report also shows a national foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 1,311 U.S. households during the month.<br />
The Bottom Line" Activity is moving up from historic lows.<br />
</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>PRICE RETREAT?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/07/price-retreat.html" />
<modified>2006-07-03T19:00:57Z</modified>
<issued>2006-07-03T18:36:33Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.1962</id>
<created>2006-07-03T18:36:33Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Reader John Hess sent the following note regarding my Sunday column headlined &quot;Housing future uncertain, but certainly not good.&quot; Hello Greg, I just wanted to comment on the article. I thought that it was more inline with whatÂ’s going on...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p>Reader John Hess sent the following note regarding my Sunday column headlined "Housing future uncertain, but certainly not good."</p>

<p>Hello Greg,<br />
I just wanted to comment on the article.  I thought that it was more inline with whatÂ’s going on than the spin normally generated by Realtors and people within the RE industry.  On another note, there are places that are already affected negatively on real estate and cannot get back their 2004 prices that they paid on their home even though we are supposed to be in the strongest selling period and with much of their equity gained from 2005.  I created this within a day and found these listings very easily. Here is the link: <a href="http://forsakencraft.com/proof.htm">http://forsakencraft.com/proof.htm</a> At the moment there are 70 bank owned homes and 1416 total for sale in the city of Temecula.  ThatÂ’s 1 in 20 homes for sale that have been foreclosed on.  South Riverside County is not looking great for now.</p>

<p>I followed up his note with a phone call Monday morning.<br />
Hess is a roofer and his wife is a teacher. They live in San Bernardino and he has good reason for interest in the Temecula market.<br />
His wife has applied for a teaching job there.<br />
Follow the link above to check out his research.<br />
The results are giving him pause about buying right now,  though he has the cash for a downpayment.<br />
Hess sold a quarter-acre lot in Califrnia City and netted $85,000.<br />
And he's content to sit on the sidelines and watch the market.<br />
It's the peak buying season but the market he's interested in is soft.<br />
It should soften more in fall and winter and that might be the time to make a move.<br />
And he's not worried about interest rates moving up.<br />
"From my view interest have no impact on what I'm going to buy. The price does. I don't care about the bottom line (not this blog) in the future I care about paying off the home.. Rates have no impact on what I'm going to buy. The price does."<br />
We'll see where he is in the fall.</p>

<p>FORECLOSURE CHECK<br />
Sunday's column also carried the opinion of Inland Empire investor Bruce Norris that foreclosure activity will soar 1,500 percent by 2010, which could be a good buying opportunity if folks like Hess are inclinded to wait that long.<br />
DataQuick Information Systems analyst did a quick check on foreclosure active this year for the Woodland Hills zip code 91367.<br />
He reported that four homes have were foreclosed on and that 32 owners received default notices, the first step in the process.<br />
As for Norris' prediction it might not be out of lince since activity is still close to record low levels, Karevoll said.<br />
So maybe that might not work out to such a great buying opportunity after all,  just a more normal market.<br />
Karevoll also knows Norris, saying he's interesting even when he's wrong.<br />
And Norris has been right in the past, sort of.<br />
"Back in 1997 he was the only one who though prices would double in five years. And he was more than right."</p>

<p>I'll be on vacation until next Monday.</p>

<p></p>

<p>I caught up with DataQuick Informatioin Systems analyst John Karevoll on Monday and had his check the foreand went over some of Hess' concerrns.<br />
</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>TRANSPARENT DEVELOPMENT</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/2006/06/transparent-dev.html" />
<modified>2006-06-30T03:14:54Z</modified>
<issued>2006-06-30T00:11:46Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.insidesocal.com,2006:/bottomline//56.1919</id>
<created>2006-06-30T00:11:46Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain"> SEE HOW THEY WORK Last June I wrote about a building going up in a rather peculiar place â€” next to the sidewalk in parking lot on the north side of Erwin Street across from the Westfield Promenade. (I...</summary>
<author>
<name>Greg Wilcox</name>

<email>greg.wilcox@dailynews.com</email>
</author>

<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/">
<![CDATA[<p><img alt="clearblgg1.jpg" src="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/clearblgg1.jpg" width="300" height="168" /></p>

<p><br />
<img align="right" alt="clearbldg2.jpg" src="http://www.insidesocal.com/bottomline/archives/clearbldg2.jpg" width="150" height="262" /></p>

<p></p>

<p>SEE HOW THEY WORK<br />
Last June I wrote about a building going up in a rather peculiar place â€” next to the sidewalk in parking lot on the north side of Erwin Street across from the Westfield Promenade. (I think thatâ€™s a better frame of reference than the exact address.)<br />
Then it was just a hole a hole in the ground 28 parking spaces long and 24 paces wide.<br />
To the rear is the Dilbeck Realtors GMAC building, long a West Valley landmark. A Plummers and Cost Plus are on the flanks.<br />
Well the building is finished now.<br />
The the peculiarity persists.<br />
You can still see the Dilbeck building if youâ€™re standing on the sidewalk right in front of the new building.<br />
And you can still see the Promenade parking lot if you are standing in the Dilbeck parking lot looking at the back of the new building.<br />
Turns out that the two-story, 8,000 square foot building is see-through, at least on the first floor. Itâ€™s got floor to ceiling windows.<br />
Itâ€™s also got at least one tenant, a Financial Partners Credit Union branch.<br />
Thatâ€™s going to make the Downey-based company one of the most visible financial institutions in the West Valley.<br />
Of course the first thing theyâ€™ll do is probably put up blinds.</p>

<p>HOPING FOR A HOME<br />
It happens every time I write an article on about an affordable housing project. People call seeking more information, even though the phone number of group sponsoring the project is usually included in the story.<br />
One of those recent stories was about the Ceicle Younger Gardens project in Van Nuys.<br />
It's 30-unit affordable housing complex at 14649 Saticoy St. in Van Nuys developed by L.A. Family Housing, a nonprofit agency that operates a variety of programs in the county.<br />
The calls came this time, too.<br />
And one call was different from the rest.<br />
It was from Dorothy.<br />
â€œI need one of those apartments,â€? she said, the unmistakable notes of hope, despair and determination in her voice. â€œIâ€™ve lived in a nursing home for 10 years and Iâ€™m not very happy at the way things are going.â€?<br />
A one or two bedroom unit would be fine, she explained.<br />
I explained that the families for that project had already been selected and gave her the phone number of L.A. Family Housing.<br />
She said she didn't usually have access to a phone.<br />
Then I told her the waiting list for that kind of assistance is typically five years or longer.<br />
â€œOK, thanks,â€? she said.<br />
And the tone of her voice changed. It conveyed the realization that that kind of an event horizon might just be an eternity.</p>

<p>FROM THE EMAIL FILE<br />
Gone Over the Hill<br />
The venerable Weberâ€™s Place on Vanowen St. in Tarzana, a long-time Valley watering hole, is shuttered.<br />
The joint had changed hands several times and the last owners apparently came on board as the joint was running out of steam.<br />
Loyal patrons might be pleased to know that the former owner, Annie, and staffers Nat and Gun are still in the food service business.<br />
Last weekend they opened Busaba Thai Vegetarian Kitchen at 7168 Melrose Avenue.<br />
The email from webersplace@yahoo.com said: â€œThere's a nice lounge next door, for those of you enjoy a few libations before or after your meal (and we know a few of you do).<br />
There will be specials and entertainment. Please visit our new website linked below. No RSVP is required. We look forward to seeing you again!â€?<br />
The site indicates that now MSG is allowed on the premisis.<br />
And the food is â€œmostly organic.â€?<br />
The phone number is (323)857-1882 and Web site is http://busabathai.com.<br />
</p>]]>

</content>
</entry>

</feed>