Oscar nods and odds

      The Oscar nominations were announced on Tuesday.

Sure, nothing for “Little Fockers.”

No big surprises —- “The King’s Speech” received the most nods with 12.

But this year it should be a foregone conclusion as to what movie will win best picture.

That Facebook movie, also known as “The Social Network.”

Everybody who votes for the Oscars in Hollywood is on Facebook.

And it’s a young year.

Besides, who gives a crumpet about a screenplay concerning King George the 6th’s speech impediment?

Even the Golden Globes — the Hollywood Foreign Press —- picked Facebook over the viddy British entry.

The Globes are called by many an early indicator as to what and who will win Oscars.

But sometimes that award can be a jinx. Last year’s Globe winner for best picture went to “Avatar.” The Oscar ignored that biggest money-maker of all time and went with the box office failure but critically over-praised “The Hurt Locker.”

Moreover, “The King’s Speech” scored an upset over “TSN” at the Producers Guild Award by winning the top prize.

The race is to the swift, but some might start thinking that “TSN” peaked too soon. And like the tortoise and the hare, it could be in for a place not a win at the Oscar Derby.

Speaking of the race for Oscar, 10 films are nominated, but again this year it’s a two-picture contest.

Also-rans nominated include:

“Toy Story 3″: The obvious winner for best animated film. No animated film has ever won the best picture Oscar. This year will be no different.

“Inception”: Mind-bending sci-fi blockbuster won’t win because, well, it’s a mind-bending sci-fi blockbuster. No sci-fi movie has ever won the best picture Oscar — and no, “Lord of the Rings” is not sci-fi. Besides, Christopher Nolan, the visionary director behind “The Dark Knight,” didn’t get an Oscar nomination for “Inception.” That puts the film out of, well, the picture.

“The Kids Are Alright” is another nominee that won’t win best picture because its director is not nominated. And it’s a comedy. Comedies almost never win. The last pure comedy to tickle Oscar’s fancy was Woody Allen’s “Annie Hall” — back in 1977. Young Hollywood’s parents were still in grade school.

Another movie genre with bad luck at the Oscars is the Western. Clint Eastwood’s “Unforgiven” won in 1992, but that Oscar was as much for his illustrious career as for the movie. This year’s best Western nominee is “True Grit” — the Coen Brothers’ adaptation of the gritty novel that was turned into a John Wayne movie and brought the Duke his only Oscar back in the day — 1969. When the parents of the parents of young Hollywood were still in high school.

The Coens won a few years back for a modern day Western “No Country for Old Men.” It’s too soon for them to win again.

Same thing for that movie’s star Jeff Bridges, won best actor last year. The last actor to win back-to-back Oscars was Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994. Too soon for that to happen again.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences doesn’t take too many risks with risky pictures winning the top prize. This year “Black Swan” is that “too dark of a movie to win” nominee.

Oscar does like boxing movies, though. In fact, that sport is the only movie with that as its central theme to win the best picture Oscar. Think “Rocky.”

Still, “The Fighter” won’t go the distance with Oscar at this year’s main event.

The last few years, Oscar has been influenced not by boffo box office but by critical acclaim and an independent streak.

The really lone indy movie in the bunch is one that doesn’t have a shot at winning.

It’s called “Winter’s Bone” —- and within an hour after the nominations were announced, the guys on Dan Patrick’s radio/TV sports show immediately started with their adolescent humor about how the title sounds like a porno film. Wait till Leno sinks his teeth into that.

And think of the field day Robin Williams will have with that movie’s title if he gets to present an award on Oscar night.

Young Hollywood likes adolescent humor — especially when it’s delivered by comics who have made a career talking about their willies.

Other movies from 2010 whose titles can take on other meanings:

“True Grit” —- not the story of Chicago Bears QB Jay Cutler, who continues to take flak for not playing hurt in the NFC Title Game against the Green Bay Packers. Damn, Jay, Jeff Bridges’ character wears an eye-patch. He’d go back out and play. He’d have to be carried off the field in a stretcher by the Coen Brothers before he’d wuss out.

“127 Hours” —- the original running time of President Obama’s State of the Union Address before it had to be edited down for prime time TV.

“The King’s Speech” —- former CNN host Larry King’s comedic idea of what he would call his monologue if the powers that be at “Saturday Night Live” did enough meds to give him the OK to host a show.

“Barney’s Version” — Barney the Dinosaur goes public with what really went on behind-the-scenes of that “Sesame Street” music video with Elmo and Katy Perry. Comedy and a love triangle ensue.

   

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