HD radio, the satellite killer

Has your favorite radio station boasted about its "HD radio" capability? Well, since none of us actually has an HD radio -- them costing about $200 when we're conditioned to pay next to nothing for a radio -- to take the stations' word for it.

I am prepared to do just that. HD radio -- with CD-quality sound on FM and FM-quality sound on AM, the ability to broadcast multiple channels in the space previously reserved for a single channel, and the promise of specialized content -- can do what satellite radio can't: NOT CHARGE A MONTHLY FEE ... OR ANY FEE.

See, that's the way to reach the huddled masses, not with $70-a-month cable (30 percent of us still don't get it, and by "don't get it," I mean don't get it), and while Sirius paid Howard Stern a big ol' bonus, you can bet that he's falling off the national radar because his lisnenership is way smaller than it was in the days of "terrestrial radio."

Of course with podcasts, anybody can assemble an audio program -- if ASCAP and BMI don't come and hold a pillow over your face in the dead of night for "stealing" the works of those musical "artists" you're actually promoting, but the audience for podcasts is a niche of a niche.

Radio, whether digital or analog, is always there, in your car, in that little portable, even streamed over the Internet. It offers the promise of discovery, of music, people, points of view.

Podcasting, like blogging, begs the question: Is there anybody out there listening/reading? Or am I just ranting to ... no one?

Anyway, here's my prediction. Sirius and XM, the two competing satellite radio providers, will merge within the next year. The two systems will remain separate technological entities so receivers won't need to be replaced, but programming will be the same across both systems.

The world will then wait for HD radio receivers, especially for in-car use, and if the nation's radio broadcasters know what's good for them, they'll partner with electronics manufacturers and automakers to get those radios into new cars as cheaply and quickly as possible.

Then satellite will be competing with terrestrial radio on a more level digital playing field. It'll all come down to coverage area, programming (familiarity breeds more familiarity), promotion and price. And free just about always wins the tortoise-hare race to the finish.