Today, we look ahead to next fall because, well, why not?
Josh Beckett, Dan Haren and Chad Billingsley — if the Dodgers decline his option — will become free agents after this season. Do the Dodgers have two pitchers in their system who would be ready to fill the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation by 2015?
Maybe. Zach Lee continues to be ranked as a top-100 prospect with middle-of-the-rotation potential. Ross Stripling could be closer than Lee to reaching the majors, depending on who you talk to in the organization. Julio Urias is 17, so probably not. The jury’s still out on the potential of Matt Magill, Seth Rosin and a few others.
The jury’s still out on all of them, actually, since you simply never know how much time a prospect needs to reach his potential. And if the Dodgers’ transactions log over the past two years indicates nothing else, it’s that they prefer proven performance to potential.
So who’s in the next wave of free-agent starters? The list could include Max Scherzer, James Shields, Justin Masterson, Homer Bailey and Jon Lester. Even if Scherzer gets a big extension from the Detroit Tigers, as expected, that’s still a strong class — stronger than this year’s, certainly. All of the Dodgers’ free-agent decisions this year were made with potential 2015 free agents in mind. (That principle applies every winter.)
In the linked piece, FanGraphs.com’s Dave Cameron concludes that Scherzer, Lester and Bailey are the most likely to re-sign long-term extensions. That potentially leaves Shields and Masterson as the cream of the 2015 crop. Depending on their health and performance in 2014, they would almost certainly be the best fourth starters in baseball if they joined the Dodgers.
Cameron predicts that Shields could command a five- or six-year contract “and probably close to the $25 million AAV that many of the better pitchers have attained recently.” Shields turned 32 in December. Despite his career WAR of 28.0 in eight seasons, that’s still quite a bit of risk to take on.
But so is giving the job to a prospect.
Taken together, who do you like in the group to fill out the 2015 rotation?
Some bullet points for a Tuesday morning:
• If you thought Clayton Kershaw didn’t allow enough baserunners to rank sixth in MLB in throws to first base, you have some seriously random thoughts. Also, think again.
• According to Ben Badler of BaseballAmerica.com,
• Random stat of the day, courtesy of High Heat Stats: In an average game, approximately 80 percent of walks are issued by the losing team. That’s up about 15 percent from the dead-ball era.
• Topps sent out images from its 2014 set of baseball cards. SBNation.com offers a fairly thorough review.
• MLB and the MLBPA could vote to change the severity of penalties under the Joint Drug Agreement.
• Happy 34th birthday, Steve Schmoll.
• Listening to Johnny Hammond’s Big Sur Suite makes me want to rent a 1970 Coupe DeVille and drive up the PCH with the top down.