Beckett’s optimism is nothing new. He was so upbeat about his recovery from thoracic outlet surgery last August that one reporter was compelled to ask if Beckett intended to pitch at some point in the postseason.
But Beckett’s optimism is like the cushioned cork at the center of a baseball. It’s surrounded by layers of yarn and cowhide and leather stitching that need to be unwound. By itself, Beckett’s healthy optimism and optimal health are great developments, but they need to put in context.
For one thing, Beckett is 33 years old. His record the past two seasons is 7-19. His early-career track record is stellar: a World Series MVP award at age 23; 80 wins and a 116 ERA+ in the span of his 25-to-29-year-old prime; an all-star appearance with Boston as recently as three years ago. But then you point to Beckett’s age, and his last two seasons, and you wonder what he’s doing in the starting rotation of a team with a $240 million-plus payroll.
Then there’s the nature of thoracic outlet surgery. It hasn’t been in baseball as long as Tommy John surgery, for example. Chris Carpenter had the procedure recently — Beckett told reporters yesterday that Carpenter’s thoracic outlet syndrome was worse than his own — as did Daniel Bard, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Shaun Marcum. That’s a short list. It doesn’t offer nearly large enough a sample size to conclude, with the same degree of certainty, how long Beckett will need to make a full recovery.
So we have Beckett’s word, his medical reports (you and I don’t, but the Dodgers do), and his track record, and not much else. Then we have a locker in the Camelback Ranch clubhouse with Paul Maholm‘s nameplate overhead, and should it really come as a surprise that the Dodgers took out a $1.5 million insurance policy in the form of a sixth starter?
Not really. And that’s not a reflection on Beckett or his health, so much as the Dodgers’ financial wherewithal. As the Dodgers learn what Beckett can do post-surgery, there’s less at stake in the final outcome of the process. Management can sit back, watch, and be happy for Beckett if he makes a full recovery. And hey, maybe you get a fifth starter at the end of camp.
How’s that for some annual start-of-spring-training optimism?
Some bullet points for a Tuesday morning:
• Will Emilio Bonifacio wind up in a Dodgers uniform? Bonifacio clears waivers at 11 a.m. tomorrow. If the Dodgers claim him before then, they would owe him $3.5 million in 2014. (For comparison’s sake, Nick Punto is getting $2.75 million this year from the A’s.)
• Via ThinkBlueLA.com: “Although a time frame has not yet been announced as to how long (Zach) Lee will be shut down, lat injuries tend to take upwards of a month to heal, which means that Lee will most likely miss all of spring training 2014 and will basically have to start his spring training over from scratch when he has fully recovered.”
• SI.com graded the Dodgers’ off-season a B-plus, with only one NL West club grading higher.
• Whatever you want to call the relationship between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks right now, baseball needs new rivalries.
• Executives for seven teams said on the record that their club would welcome a gay player in the clubhouse.
• FanGraphs.com ranks the top 100 prospects in baseball, with this important caveat: “This might be the thinest [sic] compilation of the top 100 players, in terms of future ceilings, since I’ve been writing about prospects (approximately 10 years).” Corey Seager ranks 28th, Joc Pederson is 58th, Zach Lee is 71st and Julio Urias is 73rd. Raul Mondesi (Jr.) is 46th.
• Five players who rejected qualifying offers this past winter remain free agents. ESPN.com explains why.
• Former Dodgers head athletic trainer Sue Falsone is starting her own business. Two of ‘em.
• Every now and then, a young person thinking of going into sports writing will email me with questions about the business. I welcome those and respond to all of them. If you’re a young person thinking of becoming a player agent, read this.
• Here’s “Journal of Ardency” by Class Actress is some good, head-bobbing bubblegum electropop: