Season in review about nothing: Pedro Baez, ‘The Strike.’

Pedro Baez

Pedro Baez was two different pitchers for the Dodgers in 2015. (John McCoy/Staff photographer).

This is Part 3 in a series in which every member of the 2015 Dodgers has his season juxtaposed with an episode of the greatest sitcom of all-time. Don’t take it too seriously.

Pedro Baez, RHP.

Key stats: 3.35 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 11 walks and 60 strikeouts in 51 IP (52 games), followed by two very bad postseason appearances (five batters faced, 3 earned runs, 1 game-winning RBI allowed).

Seinfeld episode: “The Strike” (season 9, episode 10)

Key quote: “So, attractive one day – not attractive the next?”

Seinfeld didn’t really attempt any camera tricks until its final season. In this episode, Jerry dates a woman who appears attractive in certain situations and unattractive in others. Was it a lighting trick? Makeup? Two different actresses? “The Strike” has been in reruns for almost two decades and I’m still not sure how they pulled it off.

I’m still not sure what happened to Pedro Baez in the playoffs, either.

Game 1, seventh inning. The Dodgers are trailing the Mets 1-0. Clayton Kershaw loads the bases on his 113th pitch by walking Curtis Granderson. Baez enters to face David Wright needing one out to escape the jam. Baez falls behind 2­-0, then 3-­1, then serves up a 99-mph fastball down the middle of the plate. Wright punches it back up the middle for a two-run single, and the Dodgers go on to lose 3-1.

Game 3, seventh inning. The Dodgers are trailing 10-4 when Baez starts the inning with zero outs and the bases empty — a very different situation than Game 1. Baez faced three batters, allowed a single and two walks, and left with the bases loaded. All three batters scored with J.P. Howell on the mound.

Baez never touched the ball in Game 4 or 5.

So, what happened to the pitcher whose command was so excellent in the regular season that he was even allowed to relieve Kershaw in Game 1?

For one thing, Baez never looked right in high-leverage situations. Baseball-reference.com has a wonderful stat called “average leverage index.” It’s a numerical approximation of how much each plate appearance can change the outcome of the game. Zero is the lowest number on the scale. As an example, Baez’s three-batter appearance in Game 3 carried an average leverage index (or “aLI”) of 0.3. When Baez faced Wright in Game 1, the leverage index was 2.91. Any aLI above 2 can be considered very high.

So, how did Baez do in high-leverage situations in the regular season? When the aLI was greater than 2, Baez allowed 13 hits and eight earned runs while recording 23 outs (7 ⅔ innings). In one of those situations, Baez wasn’t charged with a run but he blew a save. Take away those 7 ⅔ innings, and Baez had a 2.29 ERA in 43 ⅓ innings (44 games). Knowing that, maybe it wasn’t all that wise to give Baez the ball in Game 1 to begin with. Not with the bases loaded, at least. Maybe that’s the fault of the manager, pitching coach and/or bench coach.

That said, Baez’s performance in 2015 sidetracked any narrative proclaiming him the second coming of Kenley Jansen. Sure, both men are former position players turned hard-throwing relievers (Baez was drafted as a third baseman, Jansen a catcher). But Jansen made 19 regular-season appearances when the aLI was greater than 2, and he allowed exactly one run. Jansen thrives under pressure, which is why he’s one of the best closers in baseball. Baez isn’t there yet and, if you believe that the ability to thrive under pressure can’t be learned, maybe he never will be.

The Dodgers have Baez under team control for at least two more years before he’s eligible for arbitration. There’s no reason he won’t be back in 2016. He recovered nicely from a chest injury early in the season, and that might have kept his arm fresh in August and September. What role he assumes next season will be interesting to watch.

As for Gwen, the alternatively homely and lovely Seinfeld girlfriend, that was an easy call. Jerry abandoned her at a party because of “bad lighting on the porch.”

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About J.P. Hoornstra

J.P. Hoornstra covers the Dodgers, Angels and Major League Baseball for the Orange County Register, Los Angeles Daily News, Long Beach Press-Telegram, Torrance Daily Breeze, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, Pasadena Star-News, San Bernardino Sun, Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, Whittier Daily News and Redlands Daily Facts. Before taking the beat in 2012, J.P. covered the NHL for four years. UCLA gave him a degree once upon a time; when he graduated on schedule, he missed getting Arnold Schwarzenegger's autograph on his diploma by five months.