Aaaaand, stop. Put down your pencils.
Time to turn in your mock drafts. The real First-Year Player Draft begins with the first round sometime after 4 p.m. this afternoon and picks up tomorrow with the second round. The Dodgers hold the 18th pick.
SportsIllustrated.com broke down what each draft pick has yielded from 1990 to 2010. The 18th pick has yielded, um, not a lot:
… (R.A.) Dickey’s prominence is just further proof that this has been the worst pick among the top 25 over the last two decades. Beyond Dickey, the only No. 18 picks in the majors are Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma (2007) and Mets first baseman Ike Davis (2008). Aside from Dickey and Davis, no other No. 18 pick from 1990 to 2010 has produced as much as two wins above replacement. The only No. 18 pick with a career bWAR greater than Dickey’s is Willie Wilson (CF, Royals, 1974)
The Dodgers have drafted pitchers with their first pick in seven of the last 11 years. Corey Seager, a shortstop-expected-to-be-turned-third-baseman was an exception in 2012. MLB.com thinks the Dodgers will buck the trend again and draft juco shortstop Tim Anderson. ESPN, SBNation.com and BaseballAmerica.com believe the trend will continue with (respectively) University of Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek, prep left-hander Rob Kaminsky or right-hander Hunter Harvey.
Click on those links and there seems to be a consensus of, say, five or six names that will be available to the Dodgers at 18. Remember, unlike most drafts there are no trades in baseball, so the Dodgers have no choice but to make the accursed pick. I’m told that whoever he is might be speaking to the media tonight or tomorrow.
Some bullet points for a Thursday morning: