January 2008 Archives

Just keeping the boxing theme going, though by now it doesn't seem to work as well. It was a much tamer debate than expected, with very little of the sharp confrontation we saw between McCain and Romney last night. Obama hardly allowed his criticisms to come out in the open, using allusion and indirect references to attack his opponent. Clinton, on the other hand, deftly parried most (though not all) of Obama's attacks, and hardly countered with any attacks of her own, instead steering the discussion toward her own main talking point: experience.

As expected issues of importance to Latinos (immigration) were sharply examined, with Clinton seemingly coming out on top with a clearer position. And as expected, Obama subtly hit Clinton on her Iraq record. Between those two issues, it was pretty much a wash: neither candidate seemed to come out the winner in the debate.

The generally cordial nature between the candidates, the regular jokes and even laughter during the debate, was likely the biggest surprise of the evening. What seemed impossible even days ago -- a Clinton-Obama ticket for the presidency -- is now not so far fetched after all. The two candidates' positions were clear well before this last debate: their apparent willingness to work together after the nomination was possibly the only real revelation from this debate.

Despite the contentiousness of the campaign, neither ruled out the possibility of a Clinton-Obama ticket after the nomination. They made it clear that they are each committed to winning the nomination, but Hillary said that come November, the Democratic party will be “unified.” Their friendly hug and banter at the conclusion of the debate (and the relatively cordial nature of the debate) seemed to make the possibility of an Obama-Clinton ticket even more plausible.

Obama says, at the risk of offending some in the star-studded audience (among them Rob Reiner, America Ferrara, Jason Alexander, Stevie Wonder and Topher Grace), that he would work with Hollywood as president to help them "voluntarily" curb sex and violence on movies and television.

Asked about how she would control husband Bill in the White House (referring to his outbursts on the campaign trail, not his indiscretions as president), Hillary said like Obama she has a "strong spouse" who is outspoken in protecting her, but that ultimately she is the one running as president, not William Jefferson Clinton.

Both use the question of how they would handle Iraq to attack John McCain's statement that the U.S. could be in Iraq for "100 years." It's the first time the Republican front-runner comes up in the debate.

Hillary, with her decision to give Bush the authority to go to war looming heavily over her, states unequivocally that she would begin withdrawing troops within "60 days" of taking office, with "most troops" out within a year. Obama, in what are becoming regular indirect attacks on Hillary, says that we need to be "as careful getting out of this war as we were careless going in." Wolf Blitzer again enunciates the attack for Obama, asking Clinton if she "was naive" in voting in favor of the war. Hillary gets slightly defensive, getting into a convoluted explanation of the minutiae of the war authorization.

Obama responds by simplifying the issue, saying the vote was "an authorization to go to war" and repeating another regular anti-Clinton catch-phrase of his: "It is important to be right on day one."

This time it is Clinton who comes out looking a bit sheepish, as Obama did with the immigration question (though she gets a double-dig in by mentioning Rep. Maxine Waters' support for her and pointing her out in the audience. She says Waters was one of the original "Get-out-of-Iraq" caucus members. She also happens to be African American).

Question: After 18 years of Clinton and Bush presidencies, how can she credibly present herself as a harbinger of change? Answer: Well it took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush….

Question: America is like a big corporation. How can two people without experience in the business world qualify to be what is essentially the CEO of the United States? Obama’s answer: Well (former business executive Mitt) Romney hasn’t had a very good return on his investment into his campaign for the Republican nomination.

As expected, Hillary uses the first chance she gets to tout her “35 years” of experience, though she is immediately confronted with the comparisons between Obama and JFK, comparisons made by none other than Ted Kennedy in his endorsement of Obama. Hillary quickly brings up her own endorsement by three of the Kennedy clan, and deftly changes the historical allusions to Kennedy by bringing up the “humbling” and historic experience of being a woman alongside an African American vying for the Democratic nomination to the presidency.

Obama sidesteps a question from Politico.com about African Americans losing jobs to cheap immigrant labor. Obviously here is his cautiousness about scaring off the very voting block he  has been losing to  Clinton. But Clinton steps up the heat, saying the question "deserves an answer."

She goes against the blanket amnesty called for by some in the Latino community and expresses her opposition to granting drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants, a policy Obama has supported in the past (again, another attempt by him to pander to the Latino vote).

 She then snatches the question away from Obama, saying she met an African American man who said he "used to have a lot of construction jobs and now they only go to people without documentation.” She calls for comprehensive immigration reform, listing some of the standard arguments: tightening borders, cracking down on employers of illegals, helping improve the
economy of “our neighbors down south.”

But in a standard balancing act for a politician considered by many as the embodiment of centrist policies, she says that those talking about deporting people, rounding them up are “living in another
universe.”  She then echoes the "path to citizenship" favored by those straddling the middle on the opposite side of the aisle, namely President Bush and John McCain, saying she would have illegal immigrants come out of the shadows,  pay a fine, learn English and get in line for citizenship, while deporting those with criminal records.

"Once this happens, then we won’t have a labor market that cuts into people’s wages," she says to applause.  Her handling of the immigration question is  done forcefully and covers all her bases (both the left and centrist of the party ) in classic Clinton style. Obama clearly loses points in this exchange. All we get out of it is that he supports drivers' licenses for illegals.

 

Both candidates make it clear that they intend to pay for their multi-billion dollar insurance plans by allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire on the wealthiest Americans. In response to Wolf's statement that eliminating the tax cuts would affect millions of Americans, Obama again reiterated that he would only allow the tax cuts to expire for the wealthiest 1 percent, offsetting effects on those making less than $75,000 a year by reducing their payroll taxes. But he said he wasn't shy about who the taxes would affect: "There are a lot of well-dressed people in this hall tonight," he said to laughter.

Besides his indirect "future versus past" jabs, mentioned twice already, he asks for C-SPAN coverage of government negotiations with drug companies for lower prices. But Wolf Blitzer calls him out on the sneak attack, asking him if the statement is a veiled reference to his past suggestions that Clinton is too close to lobbyists. Obama, slightly flustered, merely repeats his call for an open and transparent government.

She predictably touts her involvement in the issue dating to her days as First Lady. Stresses that her plan opens the
congressional health plan to those who cannot afford insurance on their own. She denies Obama’s suggestion that the congressional plan is too expensive for some, saying that her plan would make sure it is affordable by instituting premium caps.Both stay away from the single-payer, government-subsidized insurance regularly attacked as “the beginning of socialism” by GOP candidates, even though when Hillary mentions it in passing, she is met by strong applause from the audience.

L.A. Times Washington bureau chief Doyle McManus asks what their biggest differences in policy are. Obama criticizes Hillary’s health insurance plan of mandating families to purchase insurance, saying it does not provide enough assistance to those who cannot afford it. He also suggests that if Clinton were to become president, it would be "politics as usual" in terms of lobbyists' influence in Washington. And of course he takes a jab at Clinton for her initial support of the war, another of his regular critiques. Hillary does not get a chance to answer, for some odd reason.

....are subdued. Obama is cautious in his expected call for "change," from George W. Bush specifically, not from a Clinton dynasty. But in a subtle jab, he says the race is not about black versus white, young versus old or about gender, but about looking "to the future, and not to the past," his by now-oft repeated mantra that presents him as the future, and the Clintons as the past. Hillary is much more careful, does not overtly or covertly dig at Obama, only says one of the two will take the oath of office in January 2009 and inherit "a stack of problems" from a "failed administration" -- Iraq, the economy, healthcare, etc. She presents herself as the kind of "problem-solver" that can tackle those issues. Not a word about experience, surprisingly.

   Watch the debate on CNN or streamed live online at www.cnn.com/Live. You can also listen live at KFWB News 980AM. 

One more view outside shows the carnival atmosphere of this place, with drums and chants echoing up from the courtyard. Meanwhile the first serious female and African-American contenders to the U.S. presidency already in the building and there is a tinge of history in the air.

A final thought before the debate, to back up that sense of history: A man I met on the subway on the way here (yes, subway in L.A.), Tom, 61 from Temple City, said the enthusiasm he feels when he hears Obama speak reminds him of the same emotions he felt as a high-schooler at San Gabriel High, when John F. Kennedy ran for the presidency.

"He is the closest thing to Kennedy we have had, in my opinion, until now," Tom said as we traveled under Hollywood.

According to The Nation, the latest Rassmussen poll shows Clinton's lead over Obama in the Golden State at just three points, a much tighter margin than the double-digit advantage given to the New York senator by previous polls.

Is it just another statistical glitch like in New Hampshire, where polls showed Obama with a commanding lead going into a primary that he eventually lost? Or is it a sign that Obama's strong showing in South Carolina and his campaign's heavy courting of local Latinos and labor leaders like Maria Elena Durazo is actually working?

That is one of the many signs being waved outside the Kodak Theatre in the Hollywood and Highland courtyard. In fact, it looks like Obama's folks are drowning out Hillary's supporters outside, with signs for the Illinois senator easily outnumbering those for Clinton. And it seems like Obama's supporters are aware of his apparent weakness among Latinos and are openly pandering to that voting bloc: one of the most prominent pro-Obama signs is a dual sided placard that reads "Si Se Puede!" or "Yes We Can!", the famous slogan of the farm workers' movement led by Mexican-American patron saint Cesar Chavez. They have plastered the sign all over the background of Wolf Blitzer's dais in the front lobby, and they are chanting it in both languages in the courtyard.

He wouldn't say. Just another wonderful example of this confluence of strange Hollywood craziness and dead-serious politics.

Inspired by my colleague Dan Abendschein and his insightful coverage of yesterday's GOP debate, here is a photo of the press filing center here at Kodak. We are crammed elbow-to-elbow in the top-floor lounge area, with multiple flat screens providing non-stop CNN coverage of the events going on below us. It's mostly print and foreign broadcast media up here, with the national and domestic TV and radio networks having commandeered the mezzanine downstairs, next to the actual debate hall.

Just as I uploaded my post on Hillary's advantage among Latinos, there was Antonio downstairs, speaking with Wolf about the importance of the Latino vote and his support for Clinton. I wish I could send you an actual photo, but here in the press filing center, we only have access to the actual goings-on via plasma screen. Now excuse me while I go fight the guy from Asahi TV (Tokyo) for the last remaining turkey sandwich box lunch.

 

Let's go to the tale of the tape. What can we expect from these two heavyweights? Why am I blogging like the late Stu Nahan? Because if the rough campaigns so far and last night's bruising rhetorical battle between John McCain and Mitt Romney are a portent of tonight's debate, then we are in for a rumble straight off the mean streets of Chicago (never mind that the Illinois junior senator was actually raised on the sunny streets of Honolulu, or that Hillary's upbringing in suburban Park Ridge was well removed from the windy city's notorious South Side).

But with the close nature of the race so far, the two Democratic front-runners will likely follow the lead of their GOP counterparts by keeping their verbal attacks trained on each other, rather than on their potential November rivals. Look for Hillary to stay on message about her experience -- and opponent's supposed lack of. She will also likely make some statements to appeal to the Latino vote, which she proved adept at attracting in Nevada. That demographic is likely to be a major factor in her dominance so far in the polls here in the Golden State, a lead underscored by Antonio Villaraigosa's relentless campaigning on behalf of the New York senator.

Obama will continue to trumpet his clarion call for change, one which has resounded with the voting community's most progressive bloc: the under-30 crowd. Obama took the majority of the under-30 vote in Iowa and even in the face of Clinton's stepped up campaigning for the youth vote in New Hampshire, was still able to win over most of the under-25 demographic. All one needs to look at are the young faces in the crowd outside the Kodak Theatre in order to figure out Obama's strategy tonight.

 

I've covered my share of events, and I promise this is the last post about how crazy this place is, but I keep being blown away by the aura of entertainment, of spectacle, that surrounds this place. Check out this shot, of Hollywood Boulevard taken over by satellite trucks. Feels like the Oscars are in town early.

This was the scene awaiting anyone trying to get into the Kodak Theatre today for what CNN is calling "the hottest ticket in town." People are actually scalping tickets on Craigslist -- scalping tickets, to a debate! Folks downstairs are saying that that individual tickets are going for hundreds of dollars each. Is the fact that a political debate is generating the kind of interest and buzz usually reserved for Hannah Montana concerts proof that people are more energized for this election than they have been in years, if not decades? The youth vote numbers, which approached 50 percent in the New Hampshire primaries and triple the turn out in Iowa compared to the last election, seem to support this hypothesis.
And if the numbers are not enough to convince you, just stand in the middle of that throng, listening to the shouts of glee by Obama supporters countered by the loud chants of "Hillary" that continually ripple through the crowd.

Just got settled in at the Kodak Theatre's press filing room and, true to form for a debate set in the middle of Hollywood, this place is a circus. Having made it past rabid Clinton and Obama supporters (Even the character from the horror franchise "Scream" was holding a Hillary sign), I had to snake through the throngs surrounding Wolf Blitzer's broadcast dais in front of the theater's main entrance, past FBI agents using bomb dogs to sniff through my laptop case, and all the way past the TV media stand-up locations to the print row. Stay tuned....

From the AP:

LOS ANGELES (AP)— California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed Sen. John McCain
in the Republican presidential race on Thursday, praising him as an “extraordinary leader”
who can reach across the political aisle to get things done.

At a news conference, Schwarzenegger said McCain has the national security credentials to do
the job, and is a “crusader against wasteful spending.”

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani also attended the event, one day after he dropped out of
the race and threw his support behind his longtime friend.

McCain is counting on both men — Schwarzenegger in California and Giuliani in New York — to
help propel him to victory in the two biggest states holding primaries next week. Combined,
they offer 271 delegates, more than a quarter of the 1,023 at stake in a Super Tuesday slew
of primaries and caucuses.

Schwarzenegger delivered his endorsement after a tour of a solar-energy company. he said
it’s the kind of factory that helps protect the environment while helping the economy.
“That’s music to my ears,” he said.

Looks like Obama is flush with cash for the upcoming Super Tuesday contests.  If memory serves, the $32 million he raised in January is equivalent to what he raised in an entire fiscal quarter last summer. 

I think this race is about to get very interesting.  Reporter Fred Ortega will be blogging tonight at the Democratic debate, the first head-to-head match between Obama and Clinton. 

-McCain and Romney did not spar nearly enough as I thought they would.  Their main disagreement seemed to be over Iraq.  McCain did get a few other barbs in.  Romney did not go into attack mode.  It almost felt like Romney was the front runner, and McCain the scrapping insurgent trying to push him aside.

Why would Ronald Reagan endorse you?  Not exactly a challenging question, Anderson Cooper.  I'd prefer: "Why would the New York Times endorse your opponents?"  End with a bloodbath.

The title is pretty self-explanatory.  He was asked about managing the economy, and started talking about leadership, than the war on terror, than his time as a POW, and then about how Reagan supporting him as a POW, and then how Reagan was great for the economy, and how McCain was a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution.  What a dizzying circle.  

Romney and McCain's scuffle is "silly" and a fight over "technicalities."  He then distinguished himself once again as the anti-war candidate.  Big cheers from the crowd.  Anderson Cooper tries to stop him one last time, and he ignores him.  

Kind of a surprising issue to fight about, considering how their views on the issue are pretty much the same.

Romney: Yes, it is worst off.  However, it is wasn't Bush's fault.... it was "Washington."  Sort of like when conspiracy-theorists say that "They" are responsible for something. 

For the second time, Anderson Cooper cut off Ron Paul.  The first time he promised to give him a chance to get back to his speech on the need to reduce overseas commitments.  Didn't happen, at least not with a direct question. Then, as Paul was daring to criticize Ronald Reagan's judicial appointments, he was cut off once more.  No fun being in fourth place in the polls.

McCain refused to answer whether he would vote on the McCain-Kennedy bill that would provide a path from citizenship.  He insisted it would not ever come to the Senate floor but refused to say whether he would support it if it did.    

Sounded like the Arkansas governor was about to declare a war on traffic, expounding on how people spend the equivalent of days in commuting time over the full year.  He went on to declare that parents are missing their children's soccer games, other events, b/c of traffic.  

McCain did not shy away from drawing a clear difference between his views on carbon emissions and President Bush's, saying he clearly disagreed with the White House.  He does sound like he is shooting for independents in the debate so far.  

Early on, the expected roles are reversed.  Asked directly about whether McCain is too liberal or not, Romney very calmly listed the things about McCain that were not conservative, but lost a chance to really blast him on being soft on immigration.  He ended by mentioning McCain's NYTimes endorsement.

Romney: The Governor attempted to deflect the question and answered that Massachusetts is better off than 8 years ago.  Anderson Cooper struck back, asking, "are you running for governor of Massachusetts or president?"

Chris Cilliza, at the Washington Post, who I tune into regularly, says McCain will be focused on acting like he already has the nomination.  From Cilliza:

Expect McCain to act as though he is already the party's nominee, spending most of his rhetorical ammunition on Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. McCain's goal tonight is to not screw anything up; most Republican strategists -- aligned and unaligned -- agree that if McCain makes no big mistakes between now and Super Tuesday he will almost certainly be the GOP nominee.

I'm not certain that is a great strategy.... according to exit polls from Florida, McCain has still not won over a lot of conservatives. I also seem to remember that Obama rested on his laurels after his victory in Iowa and it didn't do him much good.

Of course, there is a world of difference between where Obama was then, and McCain is now.

Read Cilliza's post here

20 minutes until debate time.... and I am still looking at this jet through the clear plastic of the tent. Apparently, elsewhere in this library, which I am not really allowed to wander around, is the Air Force One plane that Reagan flew in during his presidency. I believe it is inside, or at least partially inside one of the buildings around here.

I guess the F-14 is to commemorate Reagan's time in the air force.... he made films for the service during World War II.... they transferred him from the army specifically for that purpose. It makes a good back drop to the hills and mountains here, which are unusually green (the hills) and snowy (the mountains) thanks to recent weather.

Those without cable or Internet access don't have to feel left out of the political discussion tonight. They just have to dust off those ancient radio sets and tune in to KFWB News 980AM for complete, live coverage of both the Republican (5 p.m. Pacific tonight) and Democratic (5 p.m. Pacific tomorrow night) debates sponsored by CNN, the L.A. Times and Politico.com.

A Romney staffer is making the rounds around the press room discussing the Governor's startegy in California: try to attract voters supporting Mike Huckabee.  The move makes sense: most people in Huckabee's corner would have to be unhappy about a McCain presidency: Romney has shown a willingness to pander to social conservatives, who have gravitated towards Huckabee.  With the national media framing this as a two-man race, they might drop Huckabee like a hot potato to avoid a McCain presidency.  

In case anybody thought that the finest political reporters of our age spend their time at these debates schmoozing with politicians, staffers, and other political strategists, they actually sit in a make-shift tent surrounding by televisions, with their trusty lap tops in front of them.

The difference between covering the debates from here and your own living room couch? I'm still trying to figure that out. Especially since we are all pretty fixated on blogging and not discussing politics. Also, as I noticed when Giuliani and McCain held their press conference, those of us who stayed in the filing room and watched it on TV were able to get our blog posts up faster.

Eventually, I'm sure the candidates will also be able to debate from their own living rooms, or at least the comfort of their own personal video/sound stages.

Other notes- the winds have kicked up and this make-shift tent is blowing. The temperature is dropping and irate reporters are complaining to the staff. Sure wish I hadn't left my coat in my car.

Also, Gov. Schwarzenegger, who just held a press conference where he clearly did not endorse anyone, is WAY shorter in real life than I ever imagined.

Giuliani has made it official... in his words, he wants someone who can unite the country and win the war on terror: 

According to CNN, Rudy Giuliani won't be attending tonight's debate in Simi Valley. The cable network said Giuliani is supposed to make an official announcement that he is dropping out of the race for the Republican nomination during a campaign event in California later today. that leaves only four participants for the debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. Check back with Primary Countdown throughout the afternoon as SGVN reporter Dan Abendschein blogs live from Simi Valley.

I'm here and readying for the debate at the latest GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan presidential library.  The biggest story is, of course, Rudy Giuliani's imminent departure from the race, and his plan to endorse John McCain.  That has got to hurt Mitt Romney's chances in California.... it was not so long ago that Giuliani led the California race by a wide margin.  

The Associated Press is reporting that Rudy Giuliani is indeed dropping out of the GOP primary race. The AP quoted New York Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno as saying that Giuliani is planning on officially relinquishing his quest to become the nation's first Italian American president, and that the former New York City mayor plans on endorsing long-time friend and rival presidential candidate Sen. John McCain to carry the GOP's standard in November.

Waiting to hear from local Rep. David Dreier, R-San Dimas, who has staunchly supported Giuliani, about his thoughts on Rudy dropping out and whether he will follow suit in backing McCain.

 

 

Don't forget to check out the Tribune's election section. You'll find stories, information about the candidates, the primary election calendar, etc. There's even a handy polling place locator. Enjoy.

It looks like CNN is keeping a tight lid on live coverage of its Republican and Democratic debates tonight and tomorrow night, deciding to make footage of the event available only after the conclusion of the debate. But the news network has been kind enough to provide a live feed of the debates online at cnn.com/live, for those of us without cable TV. Log on to cnn.com/live to see the GOP candidates spar tonight begining at 5 p.m. Pacific time, and tomorrow at 5 p.m. Pacific to watch the Democrats duke it out.  

John Edwards just officially dropped out of the presidential race, CNN reports. He made the announcement in New Orleans with his wife Elizabeth standing behind him. Edwards said he is not ready to endorse either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama yet, though he may do so in the future. However, he predicted that the White House will go to a Democrat in the November elections, and that he has spoken with both front-runners to urge them to make targeting poverty -- one of his top issues -- a prominent part of their campaigns and a central component of their administration.   

The Manchester (New Hampshire) Union-Leader is calling Hillary Clinton a "liar" in an editorial, reminding the senator of her pledge during campaigning in Iowa and N.H. not to participate in the Michigan or Florida primaries. Both states have been stripped of their delegates by the Democratic National Committee for holding their primaries too early. Well, as everyone knows from looking at the results from Michigan and Florida, Hillary's name is the only Democrat's showing up among a slew of GOP contenders (Republican delegates counted in both states).

And Hillary's participation in Michigan and Florida does not seem to be merely symbolic. The newspaper quotes her as saying that she intends on lobbying the national party to allow the disqualified delegates she earned in the two states to actually count at the nominating convention in August. For that, the Union-Leader says, Hillary's word is "worth nothing."

Also, check out our GOP Candidates Poll by clicking on "Primary Countdown"

FOX News has reported that despite his all-eggs-in-one-basket loss in Florida on Tuesday, Rudy Giuliani is still planning to appear at the California GOP debates in Simi Valley today. So there is a chance that we may get to see the former New York City mayor in action right here in Southern California. This despite a report from the Associated Press that Giuliani is telling supporters that his campaign was "over."

Well it seemed inevitable given his perpetual third-place finishes as of late, but John Edwards looks ready to drop out of the presidential race. Unfortunately, that means we won't be able to get insight from locals on what would have been his performance in Thursday night's CNN/L.A. Times/Politico debate, to be held at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood. Stay tuned right here for coverage of the debates, as well as real-time blogging from the Spin Room as the remaining Democratic candidates take to the floor. And later today, my colleague Dan Abendschein will be blogging live from the Reagan Library in Simi Valley as the GOP candidates battle it out at the Republican debate, also sponsored by CNN, L.A. Times and Politico.

20 states, including California, are holding their primaries on Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5. Check out the Tribune's Election section for more news.