February 2008 Archives

The Sacramento Bee is reporting that Karen Bass of Los Angeles has put together enough votes to win the Assembly speakership, beating out a crowded field that included top candidates Anthony Portantino of Pasadena and Kevin De Leon of L.A.

The deal was apparently reached last night, with exiting speaker Fabian Nunez helping Bass, his top lieutenant, secure the votes. Assembly Democrats will caucus in closed session this morning before officially voting for Bass as speaker in once the regular session starts at 9:30 a.m. She will be the first African American woman to lead the chamber.

Portantino gave it a good run, raising lots of money and generating a fair amount of buzz, with the Sac Bee's Dan Walters saying as late as last week that he was the top candidate for the spot. But he apparently could not beat the strong, L.A.-centric coalition put together by Bass and Nunez, or come up with a Willie Brown-style, bi-partisan coup despite his deftness at coordinating with Republicans (he was the only Democratic member of La Canada Flintridge's City Council and did just fine there).

What San Gabriel Valley residents have to consider is whether this will actually hurt the area's already poor prospects at securing state funds. According to Brown's book, "Basic Brown," the Assembly has always been a harsh place, with the losers always suffering for their perceived impertinence by the winners. Brown was crammed into the smallest office in the Assembly after voting against then-anointed Speaker Jesse Unruh and was marginalized after losing a speaker fight to Leo McCarthy before he himself meted out justice to Charles Calderon and the Gang of Five, stripping them of their committee chairmanships when they tried to force him out of the speaker's seat.

Just as Portantino might have steered more money to the Valley as speaker, will he have a harder time providing for his constituents for having challenged Bass? It doesn't seem that this was a particularly nasty fight, with most Dems falling in line behind Bass and Portantino praising the L.A. assemblywoman in an L.A. Times article, saying she will do a "great job."

Hopefully things have changed from the rough and tumble Capitol days of the 70s and 80s and any backlash is minimal.

Hillary Clinton's slide in the race for superdelegates continues, with the defection of civil rights icon Rep. John Lewis of Atlanta earlier today.

Lewis, who has campaign for months on behalf of Clinton, said in a statement that he changed sides in order to "express the will of the people" after Obama won the Feb. 5 Georgia primary with 90 percent of the black vote, a scenario that was also repeated in Lewis' own Atlanta district.

Lewis' switch-a-roo also comes on the heels of the decision by another black Georgia congressman, David Scott, to jump from Clinton's bandwagon to Obama's.

The nature of superdelegates' commitment to candidates is fickle and historically follows the front-runner. With Obama's 11 straight primary wins, that pattern seems to be repeating itself, with Clinton's lead in the superdelegate count now at 241 to 183, according to the independent blog Democratic Convention Watch. In January, before Obama's momentum-shifting Super Tuesday performance, Clinton's superdelegate lead was 160 to 60. That means Obama has eaten into Clinton's superdelegate lead by 16 percentage points.

Obama's total delegate count is 1,371 to Clinton's 1,274, according to Democratic Convention Watch. 2,025 delegates are needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

Former Star-News Star reporters Todd Ruiz and Gary Scott have some sound takes on last night's debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Ruiz nicely sums up the likely frustration most Democrats must feel at watching their two top candidates, so closely matched in ideology and skill level, go at each other like rabid dogs.

Scott, now a producer for Warren Olney's radio show, dissects the debate in a play-by-play style, cutting through the candidates' veiled and indirect responses and helping to make sense of what exactly they were saying to each other.

The accusations of plagiarism (with permission), combined with the alleged circulating by her staffers of a photo of Obama in Somali garb (even though her camp is denying they had anything to do with it), show that Hillary Clinton is really starting to feel the heat.

And she should. The latest polls show Obama leading in Texas for the first time, and eating into Clinton's lead in Ohio. That combined with her loss of superdelegates (and Obama's additions) make for an ominous prelude to the big three primaries in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I’ve been told he’s a long shot. That he is not Latino. That he’s not from L.A. That there are closer associates to Nunez that have a much better shot at the speakership.

But that hasn’t stopped Pasadena Democrat Anthony Portantino from positioning himself at the forefront of the race to succeed Fabian Nunez as leader of the California Assembly, according to the SacBee’s Dan Walters.

When we last wrote about this, we noted that Portantino was a prolific fund-raiser with ties to labor unions and in his first term in office, all apparent prerequisites for a successful speaker candidate. But at the time it seemed that while the former La Canada Flintridge mayor had a better chance at the post than his other colleagues in the San Gabriel Valley Caucus, he was likely a long shot compared to LA-centric, Nunez proteges such as Karen Bass or Kevin De Leon.

Since then Portantino has raised even more money ($535,000 in 2007) and according to Walters, could soon up his union clout by securing support from the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor.

My girlfriend, born and raised in Maui, weighs in on Obama's Hawaii victory

"So Obama took Hawaii in a landslide.  That Clinton love can never trump local boy love. Hawaii will always vote for their own, we’re just very loyal in that way.  We also think we are so different from others, that the only one who can really represent us is one of our own. This is Hawaii making a run for the white house, even though he is now a Chicagoan."

Incidentally, she still is a Hawaii citizen, somehow still holding on to an HI driver's license and refusing to covert to California citizenship. 

A Wisconsin win (according to CNN) further cements John McCain as heir apparent to George W. Bush's seat at the head of the Republican party.

On the other end, Obama will likely take most of Hawaii's 20 delegates, since he was born and educated on Oahu. A friend of mine who sells commercial real estate on the islands, says the social strata there is mostly based on where folks went to high school, and Obama's pedigree traces back to Punahoe, Hawaii's most exclusive prep school, which gives him more cache on the islands than even a former first lady and current senator.

Wisconsin will likely go to Obama as well, though by what margin is unclear at this point. AP is reporting that about a quarter of votes cast in the Wisconsin primary were by independents, who have generally gravitated toward the Illinois junior senator. And Latinos -- Clinton's strongest voting block -- make up only 4.7 percent of Wisconsin's population, according to the U.S. Census.

Utter bafflement about the electoral process swept over me once more today as I noticed on CNN that there is a presidential primary scheduled for Washington state on Tuesday. Wait a minute, I thought, wasn't there already a caucus there two weeks ago?

Yes, I was remembering correctly.... but apparently with the goal of sowing more electoral confusion, the state Democratic party also holds a primary. I read an article in the New York Times on the subject, and it was missing one of the key Six W questions: WHY? Frankly, I am not sure the author of the article had any idea what the answer to the question was.

So I went straight to the source, the Washington secretary of state, and my question was first on the list of Election FAQs:

Q: Why does Washington have a Presidential Primary?

In 1988, more than 200,000 Washington voters signed an Initiative to the Legislature proposing that a Presidential Primary be held. The Legislature adopted the initiative in 1989. The law states:

The…presidential nominating caucus system in Washington State is unnecessarily restrictive of voter participation in that it discriminates against the elderly, the infirm, women, the disabled, evening workers, and others who are unable to attend caucuses and therefore unable to fully participate in this most important quadrennial event that occurs in our democratic system of government.

So the state adopted a primary because the caucus is undemocratic and discriminates against many residents of the state. So I guess question #2 should be: Why on earth does the state still have a caucus?

No answer on that one available.

Meanwhile, the primary appears to be largely pointless: according to the secretary of state, the Democratic party gets to choose whether to seat delegates based on the results of the caucus or the primary or a combination of both, and according to the New York Times, they've already decided:

“We’ve chosen our delegates,” said Kelly Steele, a spokesman for the state Democratic Party.

Chosen them in a manner a majority of voters in 1988 believed was "unnecessarily restrictive" and "discriminatory." But, hey, this is 2008..... after the Florida debacle maybe the caucus doesn't look so bad.

Colleague Alison Hewitt pointed us to this hilarious widget from Slate which pokes fun at the exaggerated enthusiasm the Illinois junior senator has generated in the press, otherwise known as "Obamania." The encyclopedia is a collection of Barack-inspired neologisms invented by Slate's writers such as a "baracktogenarian" (any Obama supporter over age 21) or "barackronism" (An Obama statement that is not in its correct historical or chronological time).

... After all, it didn't hurt Darrell Steinberg's run for the state Senate presidency.

The L.A. Times is reporting that within hours of Steinberg's unofficial selection as Senate President Pro Tempore in a closed session meeting of Senate Democrats, controversial lobbyist Richie Ross began sending out e-mails ostensibly bragging about his long term relationship with his "friend and client," Steinberg. He also goes on to urge his lobbying contacts to "keep that relationship in mind" if they need any help in the future.

In past posts, we have mentioned how Chuck Calderon's relationship with Ross may be a handicap in the Industry legislator's quest to succeed Fabian Nunez as Assembly Speaker. Ross has been much maligned in the past as one of the only political consultants in Sacramento to also work as a registered lobbyist, with government watchdogs making the seemingly obvious argument that people who get paid by special interests to promote their agendas should not at the same time get paid by politicians to counsel them and run their campaigns.

Because of the controversy surrounding Ross -- whose activities have prompted lobbying reform efforts in Sacramento -- GOP strategist Allan Hoffenblum told the Tribune in an earlier story that the next speaker of the Assembly "should not have been a client of Richie Ross." And both Calderon and Ross' ties to Indian gaming have been criticized in the past.

Ross is registered to lobby for two Indian gaming tribes, though neither of them is the Morongo tribe, which would have been allowed to expand its casino under the Calderon-sponsored Assembly Bill 266. The bill died on the governor's desk, but the tribe got its expansion wish granted anyways with the passage of Prop. 95 earlier this month.

Apparently, Steinberg's ties to Ross did not affect his chances for Senate president. Perhaps the lobbyist/consultant should not be considered that much of a liability for Calderon either. Maybe he should even be looked at as an asset. 

After all, it's impossible to say that Ross's deep Sacramento connections (going back to his days as chief of staff for the indomitable Speaker Willie Brown) didn't actually help Steinberg win the Senate presidency.    

As if we didn't know he had the nomination already. But Mitt Romney's plea to his delegates to switch their allegiance to John McCain at the Republican convention would nearly earn the Arizona senator the 1,191 delegate votes needed to clinch the GOP nomination.

McCain is almost automatically assured of the nomination, and Romney's gift would take "almost" out of the equation. According to RealClearPolitics.com, McCain already leads remaining rival Mike Huckabee, 825 to 240. If all of Romney's 291 delegates switch over to McCain, he will only be about 70 votes shy of the nomination.

It is doubtful that Romney's delegates will refuse his request. It makes no sense for Republican delegates to prolong a viable challenge from Huckabee, an ordained baptist minister who enjoys little popularity with the GOP establishment -- he is too far to the right on moral issues and too far left on fiscal ones. They will likely turn over the votes and get the race over with, letting McCain concentrate his ammunition on the Democrats and begin his fight for the White House in earnest.

 

Hillary Clinton earned a razor-sharp, 1 percent win over Barack Obama in Thursday's New Mexico Democratic caucus. It was her first victory, however narrow, since Super Tuesday nearly two weeks ago. Unfortunately for her, Obama's sweep of the intervening primaries in Washington, Lousiana, Nebraska, Maryland, Virginia and D.C. still has him ahead in delegates, 1,276 to 1,220 according to the Associated Press.

If a 1,700 vote advantage is all Clinton can muster in a heavily Latino state such as New Mexico, she has a lot to worry about. Her win there gave her only 2 more delegates (14-12) than Obama, hardly the kind of margins she needs to catch up. Even if she wins the biggest prize remaining -- Texas, with its sizable Latino population and nearly 200 delegates -- she better win it by a larger margin in order to really eat into Obama's lead. It seems Texas' complicated "primacaucus," as The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder calls it, allocates most delegates proportionally (by senate district), with about 70 more delegates divided by caucus through some wierd mathematical formula. And unlike California, the overall winner in Texas does not automatically get a chunk of delegates, which means that unless Hillary wins by considerably more than she did in New Mexico, she will end up pretty much in the same place as she is now.

So a Texas loss (or a razor-thin win) by Hillary would pretty much make Ohio and Pennsylvania do-or-die country.

 

Various news outlets are citing anonymous sources as saying that failed GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney is going to endorse John McCain for the Republican nomination.

Observers of this blog may have noticed that many of our recent posts have focused on the Clinton-Obama race. This is not, I repeat, NOT, due to blatant partisanship by us minions in the "liberal, left-leaning mainstream media," as our critics are fond of calling us. The bottom line is, the Democratic nomination is still a race. The GOP contest, on the other hand, was over on Super Tuesday. And people would rather follow an ongoing fight than an extended victory speech.

Romney's pending endorsement, following on the heels of McCain's newfound support among the GOP leadership including House Minority Leader John Boehner and Minority Whip Roy Blount -- both of whom have clashed with him in the past -- further cement the obvious: John McCain is the Republican nominee for the 2008 presidential election.   He's got almost 820 delegates. Mike Huckabee has 240. You only need 1,191 to clinch the GOP nomination.

Game over.

 

 

Our former politics editor Gary Scott (who now works as a producer for Warren Olney on KCRW) breaks down the Assembly Speaker's race in his sharp, direct and bitingly sarcastic style.

Also check out Scott's analysis of the Clinton-Obama battle for the Democratic nomination. His use of the cuddly-puppy-versus-loyal-old-dog analogy is precious. 

Assemblyman Charles Calderon, D-Industry, is pining for the speaker's seat with all the earnestness of an awkward romantic suitor.

Calderon went so far as to send each of his Democratic female colleagues in the Assembly a dozen yellow roses Wednesday, an apparent attempt to garner support in his quest to replace outgoing Speaker Fabian Nunez.

According to the Sacramento Bee's Capitol Alert blog, the flowers were accompanied with a note that read, “If I can’t have your heart, I’ll settle for your vote. Please be mine, Chuck Calderon.”

Calderon is one of several local legislators vying to succeed Nunez as leader of the Assembly, including Anthony Portantino, D-Pasadena and Ed Hernandez, D-West Covina. But his chances have been hindered by several factors, including his ties to lobbyists such as political consultant Richie Ross and his conservative reputation (for a Democrat). California Minority Report considers him a long-shot for the position, giving him 20 to 1 odds in the race for the speaker's seat. 

Rep. Hilda Solis, D-El Monte, has just appeared on CNN's "Situation Room," ostensibly to help hold the lead Sen. Hillary Clinton has among Latino voters. She appeared opposite Federico Pena, who served in the transportation and energy secretary posts in Bill Clinton's administration. Despite his history with the Clintons, Pena has endorsed Obama for the presidential nomination.

Defections by Pena and other former Clinton loyalists (ex-Clinton campaign manager David Wilhelm announced today that he too was backing Obama), following Obama's sweep of the Potomac primaries Tuesday, give Clinton plenty of reasons to try to secure her lead among Latinos, whom are quickly turning out to be her last major bastion of support.

That lead appeared to have eroded slightly in Virginia, where most Latino voters supported Obama (54 to 46 percent according to exit polls, though they made up only 5 percent of the sample). So it was no surprise to see Solis, one of Clinton's staunchest Southern California Latina supporters, hawking the New York senator to Wolf Blitzer. Solis made the same case on CNN as she made in a rally she organized just before the Super Tuesday primary in El Monte alongside Latino veterans, touting Clinton's efforts in the Senate to pass legislation improving benefits to returning service members. She also promoted Clinton's universal health plan, a concept popular with working-class Latinos.

Pena, on the other hand, expressed his belief that Obama presents the best opportunity to unite Democrats, independents and even Republicans come November. That belief is supported by polls that show Obama with a slight lead in a hypothetical matchup with John McCain.

The Latino vote will prove crucial in heavily Hispanic Texas, the largest primary left, on March 4. With the latest primary victories having given Obama a 1,271 to 1,232 lead in overall delegates according to Real Clear Politics, Clinton can't afford to lose in the Lone Star State.

 

The network predicts the Arizona senator will win the state, giving him a key win in a traditionally conservative southern state against rival (and southern conservative) Mike Huckabee.

CNN is reporting that Barack Obama has won the Democratic primary in Virginia, based on early exit polls. The network is also reporting that the race between Sen. John McCain and Mike Huckabee for the GOP nomination remains "competitive."

CBS News appears to be one of the first mainstream media outlets reporting an overall Barack Obama lead, even after factoring in Hillary Clinton's lead among superdelegates.

According to CBS, Obama has a total of 1,143 delegates versus Clinton's 1,132. A total of 2,025 delegate votes are needed to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination.

This again raises the obvious question: If Obama goes into the covention with a pretty solid lead among state (pledged) delegates, what are the chances that most of those Clinton superdelegates will move to the Obama camp? Bill Kristol at the New York Times believes not only that they will, but that they will do so sooner rather than later. He also predicts that Obama's momentum will carry into today's Beltway primaries and beyond:

"All in all, Clinton seems to be slightly ahead. She won’t be for long.

"On Tuesday Obama is expected to prevail in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. So around 9 p.m. Tuesday night, television networks probably will be announcing, for the first time, that Barack Obama holds an unambiguous delegate lead.

"His lead in votes — which is already in the neighborhood of 200,000 — will probably have widened. And Obama should be able to increase those delegate and popular vote totals on Feb. 19, when Wisconsin and Hawaii go to the polls."

Kristol believes, as I do, that the superdelegates will likely support the popular candidate rather than their original choice, in order to not incur the wrath of voters when they themselves come up for reelection (most superdelegates are Democratic members of Congress and state governors -- in other words, elected officials).

There is a good reason to trust Kristol's instincts on this one. There is a certain clarity that comes from the detached observation of one end of the political spectrum by someone firmly cemented at the opposite end. And Kristol, considered by many as one of the founders of neoconservatism, is about as far away from the left as possible.

 

Reporter Alison Hewitt just called in some numbers from the county's audit of ballots cast by independent voters last Tuesday in what has come to be known as the "Double Bubble Trouble" fiasco. According to Hewitt, most independents from congressional districts in the San Gabriel Valley were able to navigate through the county's confusing and poorly-designed ballots and make their votes count.

The best performing district was the 26th, represented by Rep. David Dreier, R-San Dimas. Nearly 100 percent (97 percent) of non-partisan voters there were able to successfully cast their ballots. Adam Schiff's 29th District, which encompasses much of the western San Gabriel Valley, had an 81 percent success rate, while about 79 percent of decline-to-state voters in the 32nd District (represented by Rep. Hilda Solis, D-El Monte, and including much of the south-central valley) filled out their ballots successfully.

Rounding out the rest of the San Gabriel Valley/Whittier area were the 42nd District (represented by Gary Miller, R-Brea and including east Whittier, Diamond Bar and Chino) with an 88% success rate and the 39th District (belonging to Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Cerritos and including west Whittier) at 79 percent. Figures were not available for Grace Napolitano's 38th District, which includes Santa Fe Springs.

Non-partisan voters in the Valley did very well compared to those in other areas in the county. Worst off were those living in the 37th District, where only 44 percent of decline-to-state voters correctly cast their ballots. The district is represented by Democrat Laura Richardson and includes the cities of Long Beach, Carson and Compton.

 

The county's audit, which was released this afternoon, projects that 49,500 independents may not have had their votes counted. This is a colossal error, which just about everyone is trying to either pontificate on or distance themselves from. Note the reaction of Debra Bowen, California Secretary of State, reported in Monday's Los Angeles Times:

Bowen, who oversees elections in California, said she was "astonished to see a ballot design this poorly thought out" when she first looked at the Los Angeles County ballot.

Maybe Bowen, who is charged with overseeing state elections, should have taken a look at the ballot BEFORE the election... after all these ballots have been used since 2002.

Meanwhile the first three pages of the audit report focus on how much effort the county made to inform citizens of its "confusing" ballot and then try to soften the impact of the 49,500 potentially disenfranchised voters by claiming the number is "much smaller than the number reported in the media."

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't recall seeing anyone claim nearly 50,000 people had not had their votes count.

Look for the audit on the County Registrar's web site... it was not online when I wrote this post, but the media department over there say it will be soon.

Obama's sweep of Saturday primaries in Louisiana, Washington and Nebraska has helped to put him ahead in the pledged delegate count, 918-885, according to CNN.

If Obama can keep that slight edge in the primary vote -- or even extend it -- come convention time, the scenario we described on Friday will become a reality: the superdelegates will be faced with the choice of backing either the popular (Obama?) or establishment (Clinton) candidate. It will be interesting to see if, in that scenario, Hillary's 220-plus superdelegates will stay put.

Let's see what happens in Maine today and Maryland, D.C. and Virginia on Tuesday. 

With the conclusion of Super Tuesday and still no clear winner on the Democratic side, talk of the importance of "superdelegates" is all the rage in the media. The Washington Post, Associated Content, Mother Jones and even Agence France-Presse are examining the role of these "unpledged" Democratic convention voters and whether they will ultimately select the party's nomination to the presidency (The Post's Paul Kane says that they will).

When we decided to examine the superdelegate issue back on Jan. 13, most of the pundits and political observers we interviewed told us that the nomination race would be decided long before the August convention, making the roughly 800 superdelegate votes moot.

But now, with a close Clinton-Obama race likely even into the summer, these votes seem more crucial than ever. Under national Democratic party rules, every Democratic member of Congress, governor and high-ranking party official has a vote in the convention. These "superdelegates," unlike regular delegates, do not have their votes tied to the popular vote in their own states; they can cast a ballot for whomever they choose, or change sides at any time.

By most counts Hillary leads the superdelegate race (CNN says Clinton has 193 to Obama"s 106), which means that the former first lady could be going into the convention with a slight advantage if the race stays neck and neck until then. Then again, superdelegates have been traditionally fickle, with even those in the opposition camp rolling over to the front-runner's column come convention time.

So what happens if there is no clear front-runner by then, or if Clinton remains slightly in the lead as she is now? Most of the superdelegates will likely stay with the establishment candidate (read Clinton, the one with most high-ranking party officials on her side), giving her the nomination. But if Obama takes even a slight lead in the popular vote, will the superdelegates choose to honor the will of the people and switch sides to the leading candidate? It is hard to tell at this point.

To be honest, we can't blame the political observers for thinking this would have been decided by now. I always figured it would be close, but my prediction on Tuesday night that Clinton's California win would leave her with up to 200 delegates ahead of Obama, despite his wins in more states, was way off -- looks like the actual difference in pledged delegates between the candidates is less than 10.

Check out our database of primary results from San Gabriel Valley and Whittier area cities; you can now find out the total number of registered voters in each community, as well as how many of them actually showed up at the polls.

A couple of things stand out: the highest turnout in the area was in the foothill community of Sierra Madre, where nearly 50 percent (48.41, to be exact) of registered voters actuallly cast ballots. In second place was Altadena, (47.58 percent), and third was South Pasadena (45.12 percent). The largest city in the Valley, Pasadena, had a nearly 41 percent turnout, not too shabby compared to a lot of smaller cities that did not do as well despite much smaller voter pools.

Now what do all those cities have in common, besides high turnout? They all went to Obama.

Does it have to do with racial demographics? Well Pasadena and Altadena have large proportions of African American voters, who were solidly in the Obama camp, but Sierra Madre and South Pasadena do not. Does it mean that Obama's strength with independent voters gave him an edge in communities where larger numbers of voters turned out, thereby increasing his chances at garnering more independent votes? We'll try to crunch the independent turnout figures in those cities compared to others to find out if that theory holds water.

But higher turnout did not always help Obama. After those cities, the next-highest turnout rates in the area were in Avocado Heights (43.84 percent), Rio Hondo (43.47 percent) and Bassett (43.44 percent), predominantly Latino areas that voted overwhelmingly for Clinton.

Besides being predominantly Latino, Avocado Heights, Bassett and Rio Hondo are mostly working-class neighborhoods with low to average income levels, a demographic that heavily favored Clinton in part because of her strength on policy issues such as universal health-care and providing social services, according to USC politics professor Kareem Crayton. 

It was an open secret that Assemblyman Anthony Portantino, D-Pasadena, has set his sights on the speaker seat being vacated by Fabian Nunez in December. But the former La Canada Flintridge mayor has made his candidacy for the position official in a press release issued today. He appears to be the first among several serious contenders for the speakership to publicly declare his intentions.

"I intend to meet with my Assembly Democratic colleagues to make my case on how to move California forward. I believe my performance to date and my positive, consensus-building approach to tackling California's challenges shows I have something to offer," said Portantino in the statement.

Portantino is recognized by political experts as a prolific fund-raiser with connections to Nunez and a chairman's seat on the Assembly Committee on Higher Education, a position which also proves he has built good relationships with the powerful teachers' unions. But he faces some stiff competition in Kevin De Leon, a childhood friend of Nunez with a $530,000 warchest who has emerged as an early favorite in the speaker race. Karen Bass of Los Angeles is also considered a strong contender, as is Assemblyman Chuck Calderon, the Industry veteran with strong business connections who can also raise funds with the best of them.

The Sacramento Bee earlier had declared Portantino a "dark horse" candidate, but it has also admitted that his $535,000 raised in 2007 gives him some serious credibility in his quest for the speakership (it is generally accepted that fund-raising acumen is a prerequisite for the position). And now that he has officially thrown his hat in the ring, he may start getting some serious traction.

Assembly Dems also announced today that Nunez would remain in power until December and that his replacement will be selected by March 11. The winner will spearhead fund-raising for this year's Assembly elections, according to the SacBee's Capitol Alert.

 

The day after the Board of Supervisors voted to carry out an investigation, Gloria Romero has weighed in, in a letter to County Clerk Dean Logan, demanding the following.

1. A full review of any Democratic ballots cast by DTS voters in the February 5, 2008 Presidential Primary.

2. Your review should determine if any ballots were voided due to Los Angeles County’s burdensome and unnecessary requirement that at DTS voters mark an additional “Democratic Party” bubble located on their ballot.

3. Your review should determine how many ballots were voided due to Los Angeles County’s burdensome and unnecessary requirement that at DTS voters mark an additional “Democratic Party” bubble located on their ballot.

4. If your office determines that ballots from DTS voters were voided because the "Democratic Party” bubble was not marked, your office should take immediate corrective action to ensure that these votes are accurately counted.

5. In addition to your review and corrective action, I would like a full written explanation as to why you approved such a flawed ballot design that led to widespread confusion and possible disenfranchisement of voters on Election Day.

Most of this fits in with the county's investigation, except for number 5.  The ballot in question has existed since 2002, and the County Supervisors might not be so eager to explain why the county has not seen the problem with the ballot since that time.  During their meeting, in fact, they suggested that the same ballot would likely appear in the June 3 election. 

This question came up today in a conversation with David Menefee-Libey, a politics professor at Pomona College. The media and political observers have pointed out the long, close ties between the Latino political establishment in the state and the Clintons, but the reasons given as to why the two enjoy such a seemingly symbiotic relationship have been scarce.

Menefee-Libey has an interesting theory on this. He points out that term limits in California -- which kicked in between 1992 and 1994 -- were responsible for bringing in a major wave of Latino politicians into state government. This occurred during President Bill Clinton's first term.

"This explosion of Latino legislators, which occurred at the same time as Clinton becoming president," and the subsequent liasing between these state and federal officials during the Clinton administration, were the foundation of the Clinton-California Latino partnership, said Menefee-Libey.

Since then many of those same freshman Latino legislators have risen in the leadership or moved on to higher office. Two glaring examples are also two of the staunchest and valuable Hillary Clinton supporters in the Southland: L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (first elected to the state Assembly in 1994 and later Assembly speaker before becoming mayor) and Rep. Hilda Solis, D-El Monte, who before her congressional days was an assemblywoman from 1992-94 and state senator from 1994-2000.

Menefee-Libey calls his theory "just a hunch," but I think it's a pretty good one.

  Sacramento-area legislator Darrell Steinberg has been selected to replace Sen. Don Perata, D-Oakland, as the next president of the state Senate, according to Douglas Johnson, a fellow with the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College.

Johnson said senate legislators are meeting in caucus right now about a replacement for Perata, who will be termed out in December after the failure of Prop. 93 on Tuesday. The lawmakers will likely make the announcement that Steinberg has beaten out chief rival Alex Padilla, D-Van Nuys, when they get out of caucus this afternoon.

Johnson pointed out that the Democratic majority has "almost always" assigned leadership of one legislative chamber to a Northern Californian and the other to a Southland lawmaker. If that pattern holds, Steinberg's selection should improve local legislators' chances at succeeding Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez when he leaves office in December. Among the top candidates for the job, according to area political experts who spoke to the Sacramento Bee and the Tribune, are assemblymen Charles Calderon, D-Industry, and Anthony Portantino, D-Pasadena. Also on the short list for the speakership are Karen Bass and Kevin De Leon of Los Angeles and Hector De La Torre of South Gate.

Steinberg's selection would seem to hurt the chances of another top candidate, Bay Area Democrat Fiona Ma. 

Bass and De La Torre have lots of money (a major requisite for a speaker run), but are each termed out in 2010. Democrats are said to be eying first-term legislators in order to guarantee long-term continuity in the speaker's chair, which gives De Leon (a childhood friend of Nunez), Calderon and Portantino an advantage. Calderon and Portantino are also prolific fund-raisers, each collecting collecting more than $480,000 and $535,000 respectively in 2007. De Leon has about $530,000.

 

You may have noticed the name change. We're now Election Countdown.

 With Romney making a tearful decision to leave the race today, the buzz seems to be that he is looking at a run in 2012.

Even before his decision to drop out, there were blog rumors that his advisers were telling him to get out for the sake of party unity, bathing himself in GOP good will and giving him a chance in 2012 (assuming, of course, that a Democrat gets elected).

Looks like he took the advice to heart:

“If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Sen. Clinton or Obama would win,” [Romney] said. “And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.”

Meaning if a Democrat is elected, the terrorists "win."  Of course, assuming he does want to run in 2012, he will also be rooting for a Democratic win, and consequently, for the terrorists to "win."

So don't cry for Mitt Romney, America.  He just loves this country too darn much to continue his campaign. 

I have been thinking, though, for several weeks about who could be the GOP candidate in 2012 if the Dems win.  There doesn't seem to be any big name candidate out there, so Romney could come in with an advantage.  I'm sure there are plenty of GOP governors out there who are just as obscure as Romney and Huckabee were four yeras ago, though, who will be looking to give him a fight. 

 

The county Board of Supervisors voted to investigate what happened with the votes.  Though it is unclear when exactly that report will happen, it looks like the county should have the time to get to the bottom of it.  Up to 95,000 ballots could have been affected, though likely the bulk of those were people who voted in the state propositions and decided against voting in the primary.

Look for a story in tomorrow's paper. 

Our voting database has data on how each city in the San Gabriel Valley voted,  both in the primary and for the state and local propositions.  Check it out.  

The word from Joe Trippi, of the 2004 Dean campaign and 2008 Edwards campaign, is that "she's broke." (full story here)

This looks pretty bad, especially in the wake of Obama's $32 million fund raising in January.

Clinton raised only $13 million last month, which is probably why she is loaning herself cash: to keep up with him in advertising.  Some commentators over at Politico.com say she is in trouble.

Obama, meanwhile, is still calling himself the underdog in the campaign.  Time for reporters to call him out on that characterization. 

My vote in the presidential primary won't count. (See back story)

Although I held on to my ballot receipt, it won't do me any good. The person in the Election Planning department said there's no way to match my receipt to my actual ballot. Apparently, the number on the receipt refers to the ballot pad or the ballot box, not to any actual ballot serial number. The county can't and won't be looking up these non-double bubble ballots.

If this is also you, call (562) 462-2113. If you get a different explanation, let me know.

UPDATE: According to the Registrar's office, 189,438 nonpartisan voters participated in yesterday's election. I wonder how many of those votes won't count.

Reporter Dan wants reminds me that the group Courage Campaign is taking this issue very seriously. They're taking names and numbers. The web site, http://www.couragecampaign.org/, is supposed to have a field where you can put your info up sometime this afternoon, and you can also email them at info@couragecampaign.org.

Rick Jacobs, of the Courage Campaign, the group that has been protesting the double bubble problem, tells me that he is attending today's Board of Supervisor's meeting, and is hoping to persuade the county to make sure all the votes are counting, without having to resort to a lawsuit.

A lot of voters could have been affected by the mess, according to the AP:

Los Angeles County is home to more than 784,000 decline-to-state voters. Preliminary results
from the county showed that about half of nonpartisan voters did not vote in a party
primary.

Not sure exactly what this tells us: I assume that of the nearly 400,000 who are shown not voting, a lot didn't show up to the polls, a lot may not have wanted to vote in the primary (for example, if they leaned towards voting Republican, which they were not allowed to do.)  Still, there could be potentially tens of thousands of voters who meant to vote and didn't.

Jacobs says the county should have plenty of time to read the ballots and count them before the 28-day deadline for certifying the vote.  In the mean time, the group is asking people to write in and tell them if you have had a problem, and hopefully if you have your ballot receipt, providing the number listed on it.

The web site, http://www.couragecampaign.org/, is supposed to have a field where you can put your info up sometime this afternoon, and you can also email them at info@couragecampaign.org.  Also, try calling the County Registrar at 1 (800) 815-2666, though if our online editor Esther Chou's experience is any indicator, that may not be that effective.

What a mess!

Yes, I am one of those voters involved in this double bubble fiasco. I didn't know or notice that I had to fill in an extra bubble as a decline-to-state voter voting in the Democratic election.

Following Dan's advice, When I called Courageous Citizens, a woman said the group would be filing a lawsuit, but I had to call the County Registrar's office myself. She gave me the number: 1 (800) 815-2666. Go to Election Information (Option 5).

When I called, I was on hold for several minutes. Finally a man picked up and told me I had to be transferred to "Polls." Their number is (562) 462-2509.

After I am transferred, a woman in that department said she didn't know anything about this "other bubble" that everyone was talking about. She wanted to transfer me back to Election Information, but I told that I already went there.

Transferred again.

Election Planning department. The woman who answered the phone took my name but said this wasn't the right department to call. She wanted to transfer me to Election Information, but I told her I already spoke to someone there. She put me on hold while she talked to her supervisor.

When she got back on the line, she asked for my phone number. She promised me that her supervisor, Maria Alfonso, would call me back.

I'm waiting.

Ace reporter Fred Ortega is at the County Reigstrar-Recorder's office and called in these numbers. We'll should have more city-by-city results later today.

City                    Clinton        Obama        McCain        Romney        Huckabee
Baldwin Park        5164            1299            518            202                  141
Covina                  2930            1472           1320           1148                460
Pasadena             8121           10590           2719           2217                558
West Covina         6843            3262            1886           1520                567

City                    Prop 91 Yes    Prop 91 No    Prop 92 Yes    Prop 92    Prop 93    Prop 93 No
Baldwin Park       3404                4324                4792                3126        4554            3458
Covina                3310                 4631                3651                4532        3374            4926
Pasadena           8797                 15552               11769            13560        12335        13267
West Covina        6480                 8440                7718                7740         7090          8461

As we described in our post yesterday, some independents in the county may not have had their votes count.  A redundant bubble on the ballot for independents selecting either the Democratic ballot or American Indepedent party ballot to fill in an extra bubble.  Say you asked for the Democratic ballot: you would get a ballot with ONLY the Democratic candidates on it... yet if you did not select the bubble saying you were voting Democratic your vote was not counted by the machine.

If you were in this situation call the Courage Campaign and tell them.  I understand they are considering a lawsuit to make sure those votes are counted.  If you have your receipt from voting (the card they hand you when you leave the polls), there is a chance they can help you.  Call: 310.860.1307.  I am expecting a call from the group's leader, so I will update on this issue later.

Next Tuesday is the so-called "Chesapeake Tuesday," the day that the state abutting the Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Virgina, and Washington D.C., all vote.  I never heard the term "Chesapeake Tuesday" (or Potomac Primary, another term being bandied about) before last night, but now all I have heard is how it is the next major nominating contest, and how important it will be.  After hearing it from NPR, CNN, and the Washington Post, I started to scratch my head and wonder if I had read the upcoming primary schedule wrong, or misinterpreted the importance of Lousiana, Washington state, Nebraska, Maine, and the Virgin Islands, which all vote this weekend.

Apparently, I did not.  I looked at the New York Time's election guide this morning, and those contests will count for 238 delegates, while the Chesapeake contests will count for 237.  So why is everyone so focused on next Tuesday?

I will defer to Chris Cilliza who runs The Fix blog at the Washington Post.  He may have unintentionally answered the question in a post from today.

The next major fight on the Democratic side is next Tuesday when voters in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia cast ballots. The so-called Potomac Primary means that Washington-based reporters will get to sleep in their own beds even while covering the vote. And yes, The Fix is selfishly talking about himself.

Could it be that the Beltway reporters are inflating the significance of their home region at the expense of the rest of the country?  Nah, that couldn't be it. 

AP and CNN are declaring Clinton the winner in California, while MSNBC and Fox have called the Golden State for McCain. McCain's win in Cali pretty much puts the last nail in the coffin of Romney's campaign, whether the former Massachusetts governor admits it or not. Clinton's win more than nullifies Obama's current lead among pledged delegates (he has about 181, versus Clinton's 164 without factoring in California, according to CNN). By winning California, Clinton automatically scores 129 delegates, and her wide margin of victory so far (55 to 33 percent) means she will get a chunk more through the state Democratic party's proportional representation process.

So even if Obama wins Missouri (he leads by a mere 1 point there, according to CNN) and Alaska (which CNN projects he just won), Hillary's win in California makes her the clear Super Tuesday winner. She also currently leads in New Mexico, meaning that after today she will likely surpass Obama's total pledged delegate count by more than 200.

But that is still far from a commanding lead. And that makes the March 4 Ohio and Texas primaries (389 total delegates at stake) and the April 22 Pennsylvania primary (188 delegates) the next big prizes. It seems that Obama has to win those three states in order to have a chance at securing the nomination, while Clinton would only have to win one or two of them in order to cement herself as the sole front-runner. Once that is decided, most superdelegates will likely fall toward the leading candidate. 

 

CNN has just projected Obama winner in Idaho, Colorado and Utah, giving him a total of 11 states to Clinton's seven. That said, California's 400-plus delegates are now more important than ever. A Golden State win for Clinton nullifies Obama's current lead in states won; an Obama win can push him over the top, if he keeps up the pace in other state contests.

With that in mind, Obama is giving a speech right now in Chicago, rallying his troops and declaring himself as the only candidate who can unify the country, Democrats and Republicans alike. With his demonstrated strength in traditional Red states, it is an argument that does not seem too far-fetched.

On the GOP side, Romney has just been declared the winner in Montana, giving his campaign a faint hope of continued relevance.

 

with 8 percent of precincts reporting:

 

Democrats:                                                Votes         Percent

Hillary Clinton                                             86,682        57.77

Barack Obama                                           46,056        30.70

 

Republicans:                                               Votes        Percent

John McCain                                              45,209         43.84

Mitt Romney                                              25,701         24.92

 

State Measures:                                          Votes        Percent

91 - Transportation Funds                  Yes     108,449      44.78

                                                        No      133,757      55.22

 92 - Community College Funding       Yes      98,954       39.64

                                                         No    150,648       60.36

93 - Legislators Term Limits               Yes    125,250       49.29

                                                         No    128,879       50.71

 

94-97 - Indian Gaming Referendum:        Yes: 60 percent

                                                             No: 39 percent

 

 

 

 

 

Speaking in Phoenix, McCain has just touted his wins in "some of the biggest states in the country." He adds that while he relished the roll of underdog and his come-from-behind wins, he is happy that Tuesday's returns have made him the clear front-runner of his party.

McCain is projected winner in seven states, including key contests in New York, New Jersey and Illinois. He also is declared winner in Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware and Oklahoma.

Romney and Huckabee are tied in contests won, with each declared winner in four states: Romney in Utah, North Dakota, Minnesota and Massachusetts, and Huckabee dominating in the South by taking Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia and Georgia.

With 2 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton leads Obama 57 to 32 percent, while McCain leads Romney 46 to 23 percent. CNN exit polls show more white voters supporting Obama, but Latinos and Asians trending heavily toward Clinton, 66 and 73 percent, respectively.

Our L.A. Daily News colleague Tony Castro reports that preliminary L.A. County figures show Clinton with a lead among mail-in voters, but Obama leading in votes cast on primary day. That seems to back up what Obama supporter Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Pasadena, told the Tribune yesterday, when he asserted that Clinton would win many of the early votes, which were cast before Obama's late surges in South Carolina.

If he can hold his own in L.A. and California, Obama may be setting himself up for a coup against Clinton, long considered the establishment candidate. So far he is being projected the winner in more states (Alabama, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Connecticut, Georgia, Kansas, North Dakota) than Clinton (Arkansas, Massachusets, New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri). Connecticut and Delaware are particularly important to Obama, being Northeastern, moderate states that should have trended toward Clinton.

Meanwhile McCain is being projected the winner in his home state of Arizona, which according to Castro adds certainty to what already seemed obvious: the end of Mitt Romney's White House run (CNN just gave him North Dakota). The former Mass. governor just gave a speech, however, vowing to fight on for the GOP nomination.

 

The Times held off on granting Clinton New Jersey after MSNBC called the Garden State for the former first lady, but its site now has her winning there, 53 to 44 percent. So does CNN, which has also called Massachusetts for Clinton (56 to 41 percent) after the AP and Fox declared her the winner there earlier in the night. Again, with the ringing Kennedy endorsements, Mass. is turning out to be a bit of a surprise win for Clinton.

Obama's win in North Dakota gives him another rural state in addition to Kansas, Alabama and Georgia. Hillary predictably won Arkansas, where she served as first lady with her husband Bill in his governor days, as well as Oklahoma and Tennessee, but she will likely not take too many more states in the south and Midwest.

McCain's Oklahoma win further cements his widening lead, with the Romney camp quickly receding in the Straight Talk Express's rearview mirrors.

 

These numbers from CNN are perhaps more telling than those on the Democratic side, since most of the Republican primaries are winner take all and there are very few unpledged delegates that could change later on, compared to the Democrats' superdelegate system. Also, keep in mind these numbers do not include delegates from Alabama, which Fox is calling for Mike Huckabee, or Utah, which CNN just called for Romney:

John McCain: 309 total delegates

                     293 pledged

                       16 unpledged party delegates

Mitt Romney: 99 total delegates

                     90 pledged

                      9 unpledged party delegates

Mike Huckabee: 54 total delegates

                         51 pledged

                          3 unpledged party delegates

Ron Paul: 6 total delegates

               6 pledged

               0 unpledged

 

 

 

Kansas was Obama's mother's home state and he was endorsed by the Democratic governor there, so it wasn't that much of a stretch. MSNBC  and CNN is calling New Jersey for Clinton, but the New York Times is holding off on that one, saying Obama still leads in Essex County, which includes Newark. AP is also calling Alabama for Obama.

Once again, according to CNN:

Hillary Clinton: 279 total delegates

                      86 pledged

                      193 unpledged superdelegates

Barack Obama: 210 total delegates

                        104 pledged

                        106 unpledged superdelegates

 

Obama leads so far in pledged delegates from Super Tuesday, 41 to Clinton's 38.

 

As colleague Dan Abendschein points out, these numbers are pretty unimportant this early in the game. Remember, on the Democratic side, the unpledged superdelegates (Democratic governors, members of Congress and high-ranking party officials) are not locked in to their respective states' popular votes and can change at any time. Many of those superdelegates will likely shift sides to a clear front-runner by the time the convention takes place in August. That is, unless the race is still close by then, which most pundits dismiss as a possibility.

 

The AP and Fox News are calling it for Clinton.... bit of a surprise it wasn't closer, with Ted Kennedy's endorsement there.  

CNN projects John McCain as the winner in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois and Delaware. Huckabee has home state Arkansas and West Virginia. Romney still only has Massachusetts.

Clinton -Tennessee, Arkansas
Obama- Delaware

Which gives them

Clinton- New York, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, American Samoa
Obama- Illinois, Georgia, Delaware

CNN is projecting that (gasp!) the former first lady is the winner in her home state, which has a total of 281 delegates at stake. Remember NY splits most of its votes proportionally by Congressional district, so it is too early to tell exactly how many total votes Clinton will get out of the state. But she at least has 81 delegates locked in: that is the number that New York state allocates to the statewide winner.

 

 

Look out for emails that read: "Something to consider before voting tomorrow."

According to the Washington Post, their are a number of these, and similarly-titled emails that are spreading false rumors about candidates, both on the GOP and Democratic sides. 

An elderly voter from Pasadena just called the newsroom complaining about being given Democratic ballots at a polling place in the Crown City (she is a registered Republican). She said she could not see very well and when she finally figured out the mistake, she was told by the poll worker that they were out of Republican ballots.

What's more, when she called the L.A. County Registrar-Recorder to complain, she could not get through on the voter fraud hotline. So we gave it a try (the number is 800-815-2666) and we found we couldn't get through either. Callers are greeted with one of those ubiquitous multiple-choice audio menus, one of which is supposed to send you to the voter fraud line (choice #6). But after selecting number 6, the system just transfers the caller back to the main menu again. I tried it about three times and kept getting sent on the automated merry-go-round.

We are going to call the registrar's media relations office to find out what is going on.

American Samoa might be small, but it moved its caucus from the evening to 11 a.m. just to make the news on the mainland. That gives her three delegates:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sen. John McCain led the Republican delegate race over Mitt Romney in early results on Super Tuesday, while Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton took the first Democratic caucus to report in tiny American Samoa.
Early in the night, McCain had 79 delegates to 0 Romney and 18 for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. A total of 1,023 delegates are up for grabs in 21 states.

Overall, McCain leads with 181 delegates, to 93 for Romney and 61 for Huckabee. It takes 1191 to win the nomination at next summer’s convention in St. Paul.

Clinton wins Oklahoma
Obama wins Illinois
McCain wins Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey
Romney wins Massachusetts

Insert your pithy analysis of what this means for the Super Tuesday as a whole here

Apparently, Arizona is the latest state to report an election debacle: according to the Arizona Republic, voters are enduring long delays at polls, being erroneously told that they have already requested an early ballot, and told they have arrived at the wrong precinct.  Oh, and also, some foolish people believed they could vote as a Democrat or a Republican even if they are not registered in those parties, which is common in many states.

That is the story you read at the Arizona Republic.  But if you tune into the Washington Post, it reads something like this:

The glitch arose because Arizona's independent voters mistakenly believed that because they are allowed to vote for Democrats or Republicans in other elections, they could also do so in presidential primaries like the one today, according to state officials. But by state law, today's primaries are open only to registered party members.

Read the full story and you will not find anything about the delays, early ballot requests, or precinct confusion, except for two word (helpfully highlighted below):

For this and other reasons, [Deputy Secretary of State] Tyne estimates that there will be more than 100,000 provisional ballots cast that will take about a week to process.

When I first read it (and had not yet read anything about the other problems)  I saw an immediately glaring logical flaw: why would anyone bother to count a provisional ballot, or even issue a provisional ballot to someone who is not registered with a political party: them's the rules!  It isn't as if those ballots are going to become valid in a week or so.  Which instantly made me believe that WaPo had missed the real story: the massive poll problems that were the fault of the Arizona state government, not the fault of individual voters who didn't review their voting rules.

Also, I have to imagine that the vast, vast majority of those 100,000 provisional ballots (if that is the right number) were from the other irregularities.  If that isn't true, than the ballots will ultimately be meaningless, because as mentioned above, anyone who was not registered with a party isn't going to suddenly have those votes reversed a week later.

So Arizona is not the only place where confusion is erupting... probably also in the heads of WaPo readers.   

What were we just saying about Obama and the rural vote (and yes, we know Atlanta is a big city, but bear with us)? CNN has just projected Obama as the winner in Georgia. Of the state's 87 pledged delegates, 30 go automatically to the statewide winner according to the NY Times, so that means at least 30 for Obama there. The rest are allocated proportionally by congressional district, so it will be a while before we know how many Hillary Clinton might get in the Peach State.

This is what the exit polls are reporting, according to AP

RACE AND GENDER
Barack Obama leads black voters, white men
Hillary Clinton leads Hispanic voters, white women
MCCain leads among men. He holds a small lead over Romney among women

CONSERVATIVES AND MODERATES
Moderates are going for McCain
Conseravatives are voting for Romney
Independents are supporting McCain

DECISIONS, DECISIONS
About one in 10 voters in each party said they decided whom to vote for on Tuesday. Slightly more said they decided in the last three days. About half of Democratic primary voters and a third of Republicans said they made up their minds more than a month ago.

ECONOMIC WORRIES
Top issues for Democrats: economy, war in Iraq and health care.
Top issues for Republicans: economy, immigration, war in Iraq, terrorism

CANDIDATE QUALITIES
Clinton voters said the most important candidate quality is experience
Obama supporters said the most important quality is "can bring about needed change"
Romney and Huckabee voters want a candidate who “shares my values.”
McCain voters are split among experience, shares values and "says what he believes"

GETTING OUT TO VOTE
Turnout appeared to be considerably higher in Democratic than in Republican primaries.

A good Bloomberg piece is examining how Barack Obama enjoys support in traditional GOP-leaning states such as Kansas (his mother's home state), Nebraska and the Dakotas, where he has been endorsed by either the states' governor or senators. Meanwhile Hillary seems to retain control of the mostly blue megalopolises like New York and L.A.

The comparison provides a glimpse at Obama's divide-and-conquer strategy of trying to take at least some delegates in states where Hillary leads, through proportional representation. Evidence of that was Pasadena Rep. Adam Schiff's response to our question in today's Super Tuesday preview article, where he smartly avoided predicting an Obama victory in California, instead saying his preferred candidate would win a "significant share of delegates" in the Golden State.

Bottom line is, of the big three metropolitan areas, Hillary definitely has hometown New York locked in and likely will win L.A. with her support among Latinos holding steady. Meanwhile, Obama will hold onto his own turf in Chicago. But if his mastery (at least for a Democrat) of the rural vote holds, he could hang on to a good number of California delegates if he wins in agri-counties such as Bakersfield, Fresno and others. Same goes for New York, which also allocates most of its delegates proportionally and where he could make inroads upstate.

But with both states also allocating a big chunk (81 in New York, 129 in Cali) of their delegates to the statewide winner, will that be enough for Obama to keep things close after Super Tuesday? It depends on how truly dominant he can be in the smaller "red" states. Stay tuned.

As for McCain, he seems likely to cement his hold on the eventual Republican nomination. With the Republicans' mostly winner-take-all approach to primaries/caucuses, the above referenced California Field Poll showing him with a solid lead over Romney in the state, and smart strategic moves like the one pulled off earlier today by his supporters in West Virginia, who defected to Romney-spoiler Mike Huckabee's camp when they saw McCain would not win the caucus (thus keeping most of the state's delegates out of the former Massachusetts governor's hands), the Straight Talk Express seems to be on a non-stop route to the GOP ticket.

It looks like candidates siding with President Bush on Iraq policy aren't winning as many hearts and minds among our military folk. According to figures from the Center for Responsive Politics' opensecrets.org Web site, staunch anti-war Republican candidate Ron Paul collected the most contributions from servicemen and women in the fourth quarter of 2007.

In fact Ron Paul's total haul from military contributors during the period -- $212,000 -- was nearly as much as the total $260,000 received by the five other top candidates. According to the site, Paul's top three contributors -- in other words, the company that contributors listed most often as their employer -- Were the U.S. Army ($68,800), U.S. Navy ($57,000) and U.S. Air Force ($52,400).

Barack Obama came in second in number of military contributions during the fourth quarter at 443, with McCain a close third at 438 (Paul received contributions from a whopping 1,160 servicemen and women during the same period). Obama was also second in total cash raised from the military with $94,000, while John McCain came in third with $83,000.

Obama has pledged to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq immediately upon taking office and to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq within 16 months (except for a small strike force contingent). McCain, however, support's President Bush's current "surge" doctrine and favors withdrawing troops only as conditions on the ground warrant.

 

A group of Hollywood celebrities is singing the praises of Barack Obama. A group of 30 glitterati led by the Black Eye Peas' will.i.am have produced a viral video of "Yes We Can," a song inspired by Obama's concession speech in the New Hampshire primaries. The video, which includes appearances by Scarlett Johansson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kate Walsh, Nick Cannon and Tatiana Ali, along with the Black Eye Peas' frontman, has already garnered more than 700,000 hits on Youtube, according to the New York Times. The Obama camp says it had nothing to do with pro  duction of the video, but is already using it liberally during campaign appearances.

From the AP:

"The Democratic and American Independent party ballots given to independent voters who request them include an extra bubble specifying that the ballot is for that party's primary. The bubble appears before the list of presidential candidates.

If voters fail to mark that spot, the county's scanning machines will not read the selection for president.

Lawyers for the Los Angeles-based Courage Campaign said that violates California election law. The group sent a letter to Los Angeles County officials threatening legal action if the issue isn't addressed before Tuesday's election. "

I noticed this on my morning ballot.... basically, it is a totally needless box on the ballot where as an independent, you specify which party you are voting for in the primary. The reason it is needless is because you MUST request which party's ballot you want (you can't get the Republican one though) before you go into the voting box, so it is clear which party you want to vote for.

It is clear what happens if you don't mark the ballot at all, but what I want to know is what happens if you mark "American Independent" and then vote for Barack Obama? Who gets that vote, or does it get tossed out on account of your idiocy (or the idiocy of the county registrar)?

This ballots looks to me to be essentially the equivalent of ordering pizza online, and before selecting what toppings and size you want, being forced to answer a check box on top of the page that says: "I want to order pizza."

Next election they'll probably switch ballots and make us all bring our #2 pencils and write ONLY inside the circle or risk having our votes not count.

We’re hearing that voters assigned to SCS Carpet One, at 17829 Valley Blvd. in Industry, are having a hard time getting to the polls this morning.

That’s because road workers showed up about 7 a.m. to begin the slurry seal process on the Valley Boulevard pavement, essentially blocking off the main route to the polling site.

According to a volunteer at the business, part of the street is blocked off, and at one point, a large pylon was set up in the business’ driveway.
Apparently, the site got a notice that the slurry seal would happen on Friday. But it looks like they decided to postpone it for Super Tuesday.
Smart.

As thousands of politically-hungry voters race to the polls today, we are going to be keeping a running tab of voting “oddities” — those strange, funny or down right unpleasant polling experiences we’ve all faced during one election or another.

The first one of the day comes from a former reporter. His polling place was in the lobby of the Bleu Chateau, a senior center at 1900 Grismer Avenue in Burbank.
Our guy got there promptly at 7 a.m. to cast his vote, but one of the volunteers forgot the ballot box at his house. So voting was delayed about 20 minutes as they waited for the ballot box to arrive.
When voters could finally begin inking their ballots, there was yet another problem. A television in the lounge area where people were voting was on — playing political commercials and all.
And to top it all off, there were no “I Voted!” stickers to hand out at the end of the entire ordeal. So even if you managed to live through the experience, you had no proof.

 

Voter fraud? Voting problems? The County Registrar-Recorder's office has a voter fraud hotline, but the voicemail is currently full.

So if you encounter or hear about any problems at the polls today, leave a message on this blog.

And if you want to call the hotline, here's the number: (800) 815-2666. (Press 6)

Bah to McCain, Romney, Clinton, and Obama. Here is the official list of California write-in candidates.  Don't know anything about them?  Why not give them a call and ask them what their campaign is about... their contact information is listed.  Then let us know who they are, because we have no idea.

Looks like the waterworks are starting up again over at Camp Clinton. According to CNN's Political Ticker, Hillary Clinton's eyes became "misty" when she was introduced by an old colleague during a speech at Yale University Monday, on the eve of the Super Duper Tuesday primaries.

Well if anyone was still wondering whether Clinton's show of emotion on the eve of the New Hampshire primary was genuine, this latest episode may help answer that question. As in New Hampshire on Jan. 7, when Clinton teared up after being asked how she was handling the rigors of campaigning, Clinton is suddenly either tied or trailing chief rival Sen. Barack Obama in polls both nationally and in California on the eve of Super Tuesday. Remember, back on Jan. 7, Clinton suddenly trailed Obama by double digits in New Hampshire -- after leading for months in that state -- following the Illinois senator's big Iowa win.

Fast-forward to today and, after Obama's South Carolina primary win, momentum again seems to be shifting toward him. Clinton's long-time leads in California seem all but erased, and suddenly, on the eve of another key primary, Clinton's emotional side gets the better of her.

Could it be that we are seeing another example of the former first lady's infamously cold and calculating personality? Are these true tears, or are they of the crocodile variety? 

Of course it could be a genuine display of feelings triggered by a heartfelt tribute from an old friend. But considering New Hampshire and Clinton's reputation, I'm leaning toward the crocodile tear hypothesis. We'll see if it works as well this time around.

 

Hillary Clinton's stop at Cal State LA this weekend also drew a bunch of celebrities, including Magic Johnson, Sally Field, Antonio Villaraigosa and America Ferrera. Story here. Photos here.

Also ... Mitt Romney will be in Long Beach tonight.

About 1,000 Obama supporters went to rally at East LA last week. Obama wasn't there, but Ted Kennedy was.

Reading further into Dick Morris' commentary (see previous post) even if Obama does comeback and win California by percentage, he stands little chance of taking all the delegates, since they are being divvied up by congressional district, rather than as a percentage of the whole state.... say Obama took 45 percent of the vote... that might not mean he would get 45 percent of the delegates because he could win big in some districts, and lose by a little in other ones.  See below (from Morris)

Even if Obama were to carry California by, say 53-47, he might win the black districts by 80-20 and lose most or all of the white districts, giving Hillary the vast bulk of the delegates. Obama would have to get his margin of victory up to 8-10 points to be sure of sweeping the delegates in a given state.

Personally, though I think it matters very little if Obama wins the delegate count in California, as long as CNN puts him up on their big Super Tuesday map as the winner of California, which is what it did in Nevada where Obama tied Clinton in delegates.

On the other hand, if Obama wants to win, he will probably have to ultimately out-delegate Clinton... usually this isn't necessary, since at some point voters decide one candidate is the inevitable nominee and all voting goes that way. I could see Clinton doing that to Obama, if she scores a big win next week, but I think Clinton is too strong for Obama to finish off with one big day (unless it is a day so big it defies all polling). In the long run, he may need to count every delegate, and it could come down to a wire.

Btw, the debate between the importance of delegates vs. momentum is all explained in better detail, and by people who know politics much better than me in other places. Try here.

Things are looking good for Barack Obama- in addition to narrowing the gap between him and Sen. Clinton in California to three points (43 percent to 40 percent according to a Rasmussen Reports poll, down from polls showing Clinto up by up to 17 points) he also is polling ahead in Georgia and Alabama, and most surprisingly, has pulled even in Connecticut, matching Clinton with 40 percent of the vote.  The conventional wisdom is that Clinton had Connecticut sewn up, along with New York and New Jersey.

According to Gallup, Obama is only down four points in nationwide polling, and as mentioned yesterday, he rose a whopping $32 million in cash in January. 

Of course, polls have been badly wrong in this race before, so who knows if any of this really means anything or not.  Former political strategist Dick Morris seems to think it does, though, according to this commentary.  He also believes Edwards, leaving the race will help Obama, which to me also seemed to be intuitive, but has been the subject of much debate lately. 

The Student Public Interest Research Groups (Student PIRGs), which has been conducting a campaign to get out the youth vote throughout the country, will be sending text messages to prospective young voters to urge them to vote on Super Tuesday.

According to an e-mail release, the group plans to send out 20,000 text messages in California alone on Tuesday, citing a study it conducted the suggests such efforts can drastically increase turnout.

“From YouTube to Facebook to cell phones, tech-savvy young voters are changing the face of the elections,” said Sujatha Jahagirdar, program director with the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project, in the e-mail release.

The youth vote is shaping up to be a major force in this year's presidential campaign. Studies have shown under-30 voters have been increasingly turning out over the past three elections, and this year's youth turnout for the Iowa caucuses was three times larger than in 2004. In New Hampshire, the under-30 turnout approached the 50 percent mark.

Rep. Gary Miller, R-Brea, who represents Whittier, Diamond Bar, Rowland Heights, La Habra Heights, Chino and Chino Hills, has endorsed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination. Miller, who had supported the campaign of Orange County Rep. Duncan Hunter before he abandoned his run on Jan. 19, cited Romney's business experience as his main reason for endorsing the former governor. “The United States economy is in dangerous waters and on the verge of being shipwrecked by a crippling recession,” Miller said in a statement issued Friday. “With his business savvy and real-world experience, Mitt Romney is the candidate that will steer our economy to calmer seas.” Miller also said he supports what he called Romney's "tough stance" on illegal immigration, which has long been a hot-button issue for the congressman and his district.

Sen. Ted Kennedy is making an appearance for Sen. Barack Obama right now at East Los Angeles City College. Our reporter Amanda Baumfeld is on scene and will file a report later today, stay tuned at sgvtribune.com for details. Chelsea Clinton is also making a surrogate appearance for her mother at Cal State Dominguez Hills today.

In other Obama-related news, the Illinois senator's campaign has announced that it has secured the endorsement of the Service Employees International Union, which had initially supported John Edwards' campaign. With 650,000 members, SEIU is a one of the biggest unions in the state, representing government employees, healthcare workers and custodians, among others. Along with the endorsement of labor icon Maria Elena Durazo the SEIU endorsement is just another glaring example of the inroads Obama is making into labor, which had been solid Clinton territory until recently.

Meanwhile Clinton continued to make inroads into the Latino and African American communities, securing endorsements Thursday from major black newspaper the Oakland Post and Spanish-language publication El Mundo. Clinton has done well with the Latino vote, taking the primary in Nevada and leading in polls in California. Here is a good examination by Time magazine of Clinton's strengths among Latinos, and Obama's efforts to catch up.