Obama basically calls it

As has been expected for weeks based on unnamed campaign sources, Sen. Barack Obama has subtly declared that he is now the presumptive Democratic nominee for the presidency. From today's New York Times:

"We have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States in America," Mr. Obama said, standing in front of a moonlit Capitol in Des Moines.

But even as Mr. Obama moved closer to making history as the first black presidential nominee, he stopped short of declaring victory in the Democratic race, part of a calibrated effort in the remaining weeks of the contest to avoid appearing disrespectful to Mrs. Clinton and alienating her supporters. Instead, he offered her lavish praise.

The conventional wisdom is that Clinton will continue to claim she has a chance at the nomination until the end of the month, when a Democratic party committee decides whether to allow the delegates from Michigan and Florida to be seated at the convention. But considering those states were punished by the party itself for holding their primaries early without permission, and that Obama did not actively campaign there and was not even on the ballot in Michigan, those delegates are nearly assured to be forced to stay put and watch the August convention from their living room couches.

Once that decision is made Clinton will likely capitulate. But until then Obama will continue to proceed delicately, avoiding outright declarations of victory while wooing Clinton supporters behind the scenes.

That jibes with what USC professor Kareem Crayton told me on May 7:

Whatever support Obama will get from Clinton superdelegates will not happen in a wholesale fashion, and will be timed so as not to be embarrassing to the Clinton campaign.

I suspect there will be an orchestrated transition in the next few weeks from a hard-fought primary to a transition of support for the nominee.