Oscar predictions, 2011

Earlier this week, Oscar nominations came out, and while once again I’ve seen a paltry number of the films nominated, I’m going to throw my hat in the ring and make some predictions I will likely eat in the end.

But ah well, that’s part of the fun, but we’re going to shake things up a bit this time. For this year’s prognostications, I’m going with two categories, what I believe will happen and what I would like to happen.

Let’s get to it (and good luck to you all playing the home game). See you in February.

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Oscar redux

OK, so not too bad in my picks this year. Of the eight awards I made bold (and sometimes) foolish predictions for, I got five right.


Yeah, I should have known that Jeff Bridges was a lock, but I wasn’t the only one to be thrown off by the screenplay wins.

But forget all that; twelve years after the “Titanic” debacle swept the Oscars, I have my (“L.A. Confidential”-inspired) revenge.  Yes, it’s petty and time to move on, but I can’t help it; I was happy to see “Avatar” (and James Cameron) fail.

I have no idea how good “The Hurt Locker” is, just as I have no idea what I’m going to think when I finally do see “Avatar.” It will be a while before I can really weigh in on that debate, but right now, I’m going to take some pride in the Academy for honoring a small picture over another  blockbuster (and for finally giving a female director an Oscar: Go Bigelow!).

How can this feeling of smug superiority be wrong?

Oscar fallout, 2009 edition

Damn, I suck.

OK, so my predictions weren’t that off, but once again, I let me love of dark horses cloud my more cynical (and accurate) impulses.

Out of my seven “official” predictions, I called Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay, one less right than last year.

For Best Supporting Actress, I picked Viola Davis to win, and if I remember correctly, she was the frontrunner when Oscar season began. I’m not sure what elevated Penelope Cruz ahead of her, but no hard feelings. I know I’ll be renting “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” the earliest chance I get.

For Best Original Screenplay, I went with the wild card of “Frozen River.” I’m not really sure why, but I do love the upsets.

It was that spirit that led me to pick Gus Van Sant over Danny Boyle, the obvious choice in a “Slumdog” year. Oh well, I did the same last year, and odds are high I’ll repeat this next year.

See you then.

One final note: boo to voters for not picking “Waltz with Bashir” for Best Foreign Language Film. It’s a unique moviegoing experience, and while I haven’t seen “Departures,” I feel a bit robbed.

Oscar fallout

Wow, that was fun. I haven’t felt that way about the Oscars in years. True, I watched most of it with the sound off (my day job takes priority), but still, there were some good surprises in the show.

Congratulations, Oscar winners! May your night be merry and drenched in the alcohol of victory. Now that the pleasantries are out of the way, let’s look back at my month-old predictions.

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Oscar Bets

Yeah, it’s awards season, and the granddaddy of award nominations came out on Tuesday; the Oscars are just over a month away, so let’s not waste time in predicting the winners (of the main categories anyway). And since I haven’t seen the majority of the nominated films, most of this is blind speculation, but since that’s half the fun of Oscar night, let’s get started.

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