The real future of al-Qaida

In the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate, today we begin a special three-part series of columns by your truly on "The Real Future of al-Qaida." Today we go to Pakistan, noted as a key area of concern in the intelligence report:

Pervez Musharraf is like that classic Pearl Jam song: We lie and say we're in love with him, because we can't find a better man.

We know the Pakistani leader advocates a liberalized state, but has generally walked on eggshells around the Islamist element. We don't like guys who stage coups to seize power, but the alternatives to the West-friendly leader aren't pretty.

And we want Musharraf to crack the whip on al-Qaida, the Taliban and militants of all allegiances who have found such a cozy home in Pakistan, but we realize that he could be one slip-up away from igniting the Islamic Revolution Part Deux.

Al-Qaida has been prevented from taking over all of Pakistan by Musharraf. And yet al-Qaida is as strong as ever because of the policies of Musharraf. He's lived by a policy of containment as opposed to one of elimination.

And it's coming back to bite him - and us.

Read the whole thing here! In one part I talk about the Islamist coalition Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal -- the MMA is renowned for scripting anti-Musharraf, anti-American demonstrations with perfect English signs (that they know foreign photographers will snap). Sure enough, on Tuesday supposedly-everyday Pakistani protesters hit the street in opposition to the Pakistani government's ending of the Red Mosque standoff -- the signs branded with MMA:

In next week's installment: What could be the most dangerous new lair for al-Qaida -- and what colossal slip-up let them take root there.