What Mirthalagate Means for Antonio
Over at the Sacramento Bee, Dan Walters speculates that Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's adulterous affair with Mirthala Salinas could imperil his chances at becoming governor in 2010:
Infidelity per se may no longer be a barrier to higher office, but the situation has generated some sharp criticism of Villaraigosa's judgment -- enough that his gubernatorial ascension is no longer the semi-sure thing it had appeared to be. A figurative question mark has replaced the exclamation point behind his name.
I don't buy it. California voters are not, I suspect, on the whole too troubled with unfaithful politicians. Moreover, Villaraigosa's most likely rival in 2010 -- San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom -- brings the same baggage (he had an affair with the wife of his friend / political aide), so it's not like he could use the Salinas scandal against Antonio. The other potential rivals that Walters suggests -- like John Garamendi, Bill Lockyer, and Jerry Brown -- could never match Villaraigosa in fund-raising. And while Steve Westly has deep pockets, he lacks Villaraigosa's charisma. (Meanwhile the GOP has no viable alternatives.)
So I think Villaraigosa's gubernatorial aspirations are still pretty solid. But that's not to say I think this scandal won't hurt him politically.
When Antonio backed Hillary Clinton for president, many speculated that he might end up becoming her VP choice, or, barring that, a Cabinet pick. I've always tended to doubt that -- mayor-to-White House seems like too big a political leap. But I do think the Democratic Party might have had something else in mind for MAV: a high-profile speaking gig at the 2008 convention.
It would have been a natural choice: The very popular, very charming, Latino mayor of America's second-largest city. His speech would have done wonders for the Democrats -- and for Antonio. Let's not forget that Barack Obama and, before him, Bill Clinton became nationally known political figures through convention keynotes. Villaraigosa would be well primed for a presidential run of his own in 2016 as the governor of California with a DNC keynote on his resume.
But now, in the wake of Mirthalagate, I can't imagine the Dems would want to give Villaraigosa a prime-time spot. The affair would be a great distraction, the only thing the talking heads would talk about before and after his speech. And the last thing a candidate named Clinton wants in her campaign is talk of adultery.
So while I doubt that Antonio's sexcapades will hurt his political future in California, it could affect his national aspirations, at least in the short term. (Of course, Jonathan can tell us how much political predictions are worth ...)
For once I actually agree with you when it comes to MAV: his personal life would become an issue mostly because Billary have spent years trying to get people to forget about theirs.
Plus no one even knows yet if MAV and Mirthala will become a permanent items, but it looks like it, if ERSNews reports that she's been spending time at Getty House are true.
Once he isn't afraid to be in the open with her, look newshounds in the eye and admit it, the issue will start to go away. But that doesn't look like before the DNC.
Adultery is this political season's version of Nanny-Gate. The first couple of pols with nannies working with no social security were axed. Now, we know that almost no one could pass the nanny test.
With family values candidates having multiple marriages and clear evidence of adultery, few are willing to cast the first stone.
I suspect it will not be adultery that hurts the mayor as much as the deadlier problem of disappointment. His moment to shine is gone and when introduced to highly visible state politics, his star quickly lost its luster.
A politician having one affair is one thing. Antonio is a serial adulterer which does not sit well with women voters. (And yes, serial is the operative word here.) I think the political pundits are greatly underestimating how Antonio's behavior will play at the polls.
And while Gavin Newsome is no angel, he was separated at the time of his affair. Yes, what he did to his friend Alex Tourk was crappy but at least he came out and admitted his had a problem that had contributed to his lack of judgment. Antonio is just another Latin lover-boy who can't stay away from the women. Hillary is stupid to keep him around. It just reminds women of the public humiliation she was willing to suffer to advance her career.