Don't Sell Conventional Wisdom Short!

Jonathan is right that conventional wisdom has a way of proving itself spectacularly wrong more often than not. Politics is far less predictable than we pundits and prognosticators like to imagine. But I think Jonathan is a little too quick to dismiss the conventional wisdom wrong on Rudy Giuliani. Jonathan writes:

By the standards of conventional wisdom in this presidential campaign cycle Rudy should have disappeared. His liberal social positions on abortion, gay rights and gun control, coupled with his super hawk position on the war(s) should reasonably have driven moderates, conservatives and evangelicals away. He’s like the bumblebee that shouldn’t be able to fly, but somehow does.

Or does he? While Giuliani continues to lead the national polls, his numbers have dropped considerably. What's more, he's doing worst in the places that matter most -- the states with early primaries. To quote a CNS News report:

Rudy Giuliani leads the pack of Republican contenders in almost every national poll, but he is running second place in New Hampshire and third place in Iowa, according to Real Clear Politics' polling average.

Winning candidates in those two states, which hold primary contests in early January, traditionally gain momentum in their quest for their party's nomination....

... (S)even states - including Wyoming, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida - will hold their nominating contests in January, with as many as 343 delegates to the Republican National Convention up for grabs....

Yet Giuliani is running ahead in just two states with January primaries ...

What that suggests to me is that Giuliani is doing worst in the states where voters are paying the most attention -- that is, the ones where campaign rallies and TV commercials are already a fact of everyday life. Elsewhere in America, where normal people have better things to do than pay attention to a far-away presidential election, Giuliani is still remembered fondly for his 9-11 glory days. But as in the states that hold the early primaries, it could be that when GOP voters nationwide finally start looking closely at Giuliani, they won't like what they see.

Of course, conventional wisdom could be disproved again: Maybe Giuliani can buck historical trends by winning the nomination without winning the early primaries. Who knows? As Jonathan notes, there are too many variables, which makes picking a presidential race this far out about as foolish as predicting the weather.

But Rudy the bumblebee still hasn't proven he can really fly -- at least not yet, anyway.