What happened to surprise attacks?
See that bored Turkish soldier? He's just hanging out on the border with Iraq, waiting for the word to go in and rout the Kurdistan Workers' Party. It seems that word will come any moment, but there may have been far too many words -- at least public ones:
"...With the Turkish government talking openly for weeks about the likelihood of an attack, the official said intelligence information shows the guerrillas have been evacuating their camps and melting away into cities and other regions....In northern Iraq, Osman Ocalan, brother of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, told AP some fighters had moved toward Iran, and that there were now more PKK fighters there than in northern Iraq."
Well, that's a pain, huh? Is Turkey going to attack Iran?
Therein lies my problem with modern warfare, where plans are hashed out on cable news before the first tank even shifts into gear. If Turkey pulled off that rare thing nowadays known as a surprise attack, the rebels would still be tucked into their little border camps: Wham, bam, bye-bye. But extended, public discussion following Turkey's first statement of intent to attack has given the PKK militants the opportunity to blend into cities, where strikes would ensure civilian casualties. And you'd better believe they'd have safe haven in Iran until Turkey was finished attacking northern Iraq, ready to slip back -- and be poised for more border attacks on the Turks -- as soon as the coast is clear.
Turkey may want to open a can on the PKK, but their delays have just opened up new cans of worms.
Comments
Well Bridget, I've got a different take on this. The leak serves Turkish interests. They have, in fact, gone over the border many times and killed a fair number of PKKs. But they have also suffered disproportionate losses. The PKK are tough, disciplined and good in the mountains. Turkish fire power does not trump PKK stealth and dedication.
Turkey would like to make a dramatic attack and get out alive. They could easily get so bogged down that Northern Iraq becomes their, well, Iraq.
They are happier posturing than dying.
Jonathan
Posted by: jonathan dobrer | November 6, 2007 4:55 PM