HIllary's Choice

The tipping point has been reached and Hillary Clinton is faced with the political version of Sophie’s Choice. She must decide between the fate of her party and her political ambition.

Last night, the results were clear. Obama won every category except white women over 60—the first modern generation of feminists who rightly feel both pride and loyalty in Hillary. Obama carried the black vote overwhelmingly, including black women. He carried the male vote by a significant proportion. He carried Democrats somewhat more narrowly, and he attracted a disproportionate number of independents. To be fair, some independents voted for him because the Republican contest was over and they could exercise their animus against Hillary.

To have won by such a percentage in a state not very different from Ohio, bodes ill for the Clinton campaign. Inevitability is gone, and desperation is in its stead. So fast has Obamamania grown that only three things can stop it. A really major gaff, a “Macaca moment” when he flies off the handle or seems mean or demeaning. (His wife Michele saying something as tone deaf and offensive as admitting that “this is the first time she’s been proud of America” was a Macaca moment, but as a spouse she may get one error…but that’s it! Candor is a not positive survival strategy in national elections.) Second, God forbid, a terrorist attack on our soil would move even the Democrats to the more experienced candidate who is tied (at least figuratively) to the former president, Bill.

The third way to stop Obama is the most likely and that is to go strongly and blatantly negative. She cannot catch him in a race, so someone has to trip him, mug him and beat him beyond recognition. They have to drag him through the mud with any and all charges. I have every confidence they will try this. They have to. They must realize however that mugging Obama might get the nomination but lead to a Chicago 68 style convention with the youthful enthusiasts disenchanted, sullen and angry.

This is a terrible calculation to have to make, but now is the moment. Do the Clintons go on an all out attack in order to bring Obama down or do they fade away and accept that she has a career in the Senate, and he can be an international statesman? Their history is to fight but she must know that she cannot win by catching up. The public has met her and prefers him. Charisma is not fair—ask Bob Dole or Gerald Ford or Al Gore. Her winning through the politics of personal destruction is not impossible by any means. But her use of any and all means will leave the party in a shambles. The hardest part of this political calculus is that if she wounds him and he wins, she will be marginalized. So she must either back off or go for the political kill. Not a great choice.