Romney, Huckabee Mathematically Eliminated
Stumbled upon this useful quote at PoliticalWire.com, in which McCain adviser Charlie Black explains why the GOP nomination is a done deal. The bottom line is delegates: McCain has 775, Romney has 284, and Huckabee has 205. As Black explains:
"It takes 1,191 to clinch the nomination. There are 963 left to be chosen, so Romney or Huckabee would have to have all of them -- all of them -- to get to 1,191. Now you can't do that because a majority of those 963 are chosen in proportional primaries, which means you'd have to get 100% if the vote to get them all."
Which is probably why, as PoliticalWire's Taegan Goddard notes, Romney is glomming on to the far-fetched strategy of trying to pry away other candidates' delegates. At this point, though, if Romney and Huckabee have any chance at all, it's going to depend on a brokered convention.
Comments
That would be truer (though still not completely true, in the Democratic primary system. They are proportional--sometimes by state and sometimes by congressional district. The Republicans are far more winner take all--social darwinist in process. So Romney would not need every vote but would need over 65% of vote win every remaining state.
However you calculate this: He is toast, and he can only humiliate himself, spend his family fortune (So much for sound business judgement.) He can also end any chance of running again in 4 or 8 years. We'll see if he can do the political and financial math.
Jonathan
Posted by: jonathan dobrer | February 6, 2008 2:50 PM
New York Times has a completely different delgeate count. Has McCain with 689, Huckabee in second with 156 and Mitt third with 133.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
Cheers!
Jonathan
Posted by: jonathan dobrer | February 7, 2008 9:12 AM
Yeah, it seems that wherever you look, the total is different. Seemingly calculating the numbers is a lot more complicated than one would think.
Best,
Chris
Posted by: Chris Weinkopf
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February 7, 2008 10:33 AM