A Different Wager
Veeps don't matter. The exemplar is 1988.
Trailing Michael Dukakis badly, Bush Sr. named a young laughingstock-in-training, Dan Quayle, as his mate, while Dukakis tapped the charismatic, statesmanly Lloyd Bentsen. Dukakis chortled about how Bush flunked his first test of judgment. But Dukakis got Willy-Hortoned to within an inch of his life by November of that year. VP candidates can't help or hurt this race, unless someone picks a minority with a Muslim middle name. Oh. Wait.
Here's a bet I'm up for: I'll bet dinner if one of the candidates actually gets a demonstrable, lasting poll boost through his selection.
Of course, you're right. This is why the first and most import rule is: Do no harm. The only Veep in memory (mine anyway), who brought a state with him was LBJ.
Cheers!
Jonathan