Should Israel Attack Iran?
Iranian nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to Israel. Given the trash talking by the leadership in Iran that is constantly calling for destruction of Israel and threatening to erase it from the map, the question of pre-empting Iran has to be considered.
Strangely, no group wants Israel to attack more than the Sunni Arab nations. They'd be happy for Israel to be their surrogates in the great Persian v. Arab struggle. While Iran raises a serious question, no serious person could doubt that if Al Qaeda had nukes they would use them.
This distinction between Al Qaeda and Iran is important. Al Qaeda is stateless and can act without fear of losing much. Iran, however, is a state with history, culture, great cities, universities, museums and an educated--and often anti-government--middle class.
In the last thirty years, Iranian policy has been brutal, even evil. They've enabled various bad actors to kill Americans, Israelis and Sunni Arabs throughout the Middle East. They've sent arms to their co-religionist Shiites in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. They've armed Sunni radicals in Gaza and on the West Bank. They've shipped rockets to Israel's enemies. There's no reason to believe that their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
But there's also no reason to believe them suicidal or mad. They know that a nuclear attack on Israel would mean their destruction.
Iran, under Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs, talks like Al Qaeda but acts with more caution--knowing they've much to lose. There's nothing in their history to indicate self-destructive fanaticism. Iran's government will likely fall of its own weight if Israel and the US don't push them together with a unifying attack.
©2010 Jonathan Dobrer
www.Dobrer.com
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