The Tunisian Model Egyptian Style
The Arab revolt, begun in Tunisia, is now in Cairo and may be succeeding. In Tunisia it became viable when the army decided not to kill its own people and not to stick with Zine El-Abadine Ben Ali, the old and tired tyrant. They cast their lot with the revolution, and so far have worked for stability, not personal power. The hero is their leader General Rachid Ammar.
In Cairo, we have yet to see what the military will do. So far they have fought the demonstrators but not with the kind of overwhelming force that would make them hated if Hosni Mubarak falls. They have to make a life/death choice, both for themselves and Egypt, whether to throw in with the octogenarian dictator or the next government.
While we can't know what is going on, we have some indication of what the Egyptian government believes. Gamal Mubarak, Hosni's son and heir apparent, has fled with his family to Great Britain!
The Egyptian change of government will be far messier than Tunisia's. It is a larger, poorer and angrier nation. There are many political and religious factions that will roil their troubled waters even further.
We have known that Mubarak's time was running out. We have wanted a more democratic Egypt, but we have understood--both Bush and Obama--that one election does not make a democracy. Three or four elections and the peaceful transfer of power are evidence of democracy. Too often there is only one election and that elects the president for life. Life could be ten minutes or 30 years. Egypt's future is likely to be chaotic.
©2011 Jonathan Dobrer
www.Dobrer.com
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