Can Obama Lose California

The question "Can Obama Lose California" has been bandied about so much it screams for an answer. The short answer is no. It's a lock down Democratic state. Now the longer answer as to why the question is even posed. True, Democrats have a crushing numerical advantage over the GOP in terms of vote numbers and percentages. The state's two major cities, Los Angeles and San Francisco, are rock solid Democratic, labor, environmental, and minority voter friendly. San Diego, the other major city, is increasingly environmental and multi-ethnic friendly. No GOP presidential candidate has won California since George H.W. Bush did it in 1988.

However, there are short and long term perils for Obama in 2012 and for the Democrats beyond that election. A centrist friendly GOP presidential candidate, that is Mitt Romney, can appeal to independents and conservative Democrats. A continued souring economy, a lackluster turnout by Latino voters, and an equally lackluster get out the vote effort by Democrats in the state can appreciably narrow the vote margin that Obama will get.

A concerted effort by the GOP to get a coherent centrist, immigration friendly line, and an equally concerted effort on their part to appeal to Latino voters on the issues of patriotism, family values, small business support, and even religious values, and cultivate some young Latino and even black potential office holders, and put money behind their campaigns is a future possibility. This could pay some dividends if the GOP chooses to go that route. The point is for the GOP to be competitive again in the state it has to transform itself from a narrowly rigid, ultra conservative white guys party, into a party that preaches and practices diversity. If it can pull off this political magic hat trick it can be a force again in the state. This won't happen in 2012. But the possibilities are there for the future for the GOP. The ball then is in its court, but for now it will stay in Obama and the Democrat's court.