Could Obama Lose California?
Could Obama lose California? The answer to any political question is almost always, "Well, it's possible." Obama could lose California if the economy really tanks and we drop into a true depression. (Yes, I'm depressed already, but it's not the same) Yes, he could lose if we are attacked significantly by either Al Qaeda or Iranian terrorists. He could lose California if either a true left or even a credible centrist candidate draws votes away. The level of passion for Obama is almost completely gone and his support is based on fear of the eventual Republican candidate. This is a very different dynamic from four years ago.
But much more likely than not, he will easily carry California. Our crazy electoral system is set up to disenfranchise a lot of people from having a meaningful voice in the presidential election. If you are a Republican in California, essentially your presidential vote doesn't count, and you might as well stay home. On the other hand to be fair--or rather to be equally unfair--if you are a Democrat in Texas your presidential voice will not be heard.
Since the two major candidates will not generate a lot of positive passion, we can look forward to a hugely negative campaign from both parties. In the absence of love for the nominees, it will be all attack all the time. Of course, there is that possibility, however slim, of a third party in the center. That would change everything!
©2011 Jonathan Dobrer
www.Dobrer.com
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