Around the globe: January 2011 Archives

We are afraid of what may come after Mubarak. Israel is also afraid--or at least must say so. Most nations are most often most comfortable dancing with the devils they know. We always supported the short-timer gerontocracy that ran the old Soviet Union out of business. No matter how bad, corrupt or brutal, we always feared that the next guy would be worse.

It is true that we have also backed the wrong person when we tried to create regime change. We knocked off a bunch of leaders of South Vietnam who did not please us. We never found the right guy to help us win the wrong war. We have thrown any number of bad guys under the bus of our perceived interests in Latin America. We threw out an elected leader in Iran and replaced him with the Shah. Then we threw the Shah under the bus--much too late for masses of people--and we got Khomeini.

We have backed Mubarak, who took over after Sadat was assassinated, and promised, but never delivered, free fair elections. In three decades he failed to deliver and ruled under a permanent emergency decree. Well, his own personal emergency is here. He will fall. Every day we act as if we support him, we make the very folks we fear more powerful and less likely to forgive us.

Yes, he has been an ally and we have paid dearly in both money and integrity for his friendship. Whoever follows Mubarak whether this week or in a month or a year (unlikely) will not be as friendly but may be more democratic and representative of the people of Egypt.

What does this mean to Israel? Probably not much. The cold peace between Israel and Egypt is unlikely to change dramatically. Egypt needs peace since over 30% of its economy comes from tourism. They need a sense of safety to keep the Suez Canal open. And ultimately, Egyptians know that the great hostage that Israel holds is the high dam at Aswan. Were that to be destroyed and Lake Nasser catastrophically emptied, Egypt would be finished.

The great bus of change is coming to the Arab World. We can be in front welcoming it. We can follow it and still come out okay. But at present, by signaling in both directions, we are likely to be under the bus. Not good for us or Israel or, indeed, Egypt.

©2011 Jonathan Dobrer
www.Dobrer.com