November 2008 Archives

Here we go with the final day of the Turf Festival at Hollywood Park.

I like the 3-year-old filly Visit to give trainer Bobby Frankel his fifth consecutive victory in the $500,000 Grade I Matriarch Stakes. I think she's coming up to her best race, where the others might be tailing off a bit.

In the $500,000 Grade I Hollywood Derby, I think Madeo and Gio Ponti are going to be tough.

Some others to watch:

8th -- I love it when a trainer scratches one half of his entry, as Richard Mandella did in this maiden special weight. I think New Bay, a first-time starter by Cuvee, will come out running and win the start to the late pick three.

10th -- Shelbydell is a major threat to go gate to wire in this maiden claimer for 2-year-old Cal-bred fillies, and Warrensmysterydice can pick up the pieces if the top choice falters late. Catsalot, dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time, is the chalk play.

Good luck today!

How does a speed horse like California Flag get away with early splits of :23.84 and :45.83 in Saturday's Hollywood Turf Express Handicap? Well, to hear trainer Brian Koriner tell it, the riders on Delta Storm (Aaron Gryder) and One Union (Victor Espinoza) decided it was suicide to go out and run with the winner, so they took back and paid the price.

"I think those two riders down inside, they've watched this horse run before," Koriner said. "They know if they go with him, they're going to get in trouble. By doing it that way, they're going to ride to run last. So I think we got lucky and they just left him alone."

Koriner believes the 4-year-old gelding would have run better than 10th in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint on Oct. 25 at Santa Anita if they hadn't elected to send California Flag.

"I really think, possibly, in the Breeders' Cup if we didn't give Joe (jockey Talamo) instructions just to run off and go to the lead, it might have been a whole different ballgame."

Koriner said the son of Avenue of Flags might be freshened and then run back in the next stakes down the hill during the Santa Anita meet, which begins Dec. 26.

If you had a betting interest in Saturday's seventh at Hollywood Park, or even if you didn't, you must have an opinion on the stewards' decision to let the orginal order stand. The 2-1 betting favorite, Taxi Fleet, clearly came out and bumped the Mike Mitchell-trained Hoist the Sail, yet the stewards ruled that both horses were at fault and there was no disqualification. Simply incredible. Taxi Fleet and Rafael Bejarano should have come down and the win should have gone to second-place finisher Street Lights, a 10-1 shot. If you bet Taxi Fleet, you're counting your blessings, and if you had Street Lights, you should be upset. You should have won.
Anyone out there see the race, and more importantly the replays, and have an opinion? C'mon. Sound off about this.

I think the first half of today's Turf Festival doubleheader at Hollywood Park, the $100,000 Grade III Generous Stakes, is a three-horse race between trainer Todd Pletcher's duo -- Bittel Road and Hype -- and the Neil Drysdale-trained Bourbon Bay.

In the $150,000 Grade III Hollywood Turf Express, at six furlongs, I like Delta Storm and California Flag. The latter, with Joe Talamo aboard, finished 10th in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and gets softer today. He'll be on the lead and could go gate to wire, but Delta Storm will be sitting close up under Aaron Gryder and could win if the top one falters in the late stages.

I also like Chimera Star and Carrie With a C in the eighth, and I think the nightcap is a grab bag. The favorite, Threat, has had five chances, the past four as the post-time favorite, and came up short each time. He could win because he's racing cheaper than he ever has, but he's not a lock. Miss Caper, Skim the Pool and Burnt all have big shots.

Good luck today!

Two races stand out today today during Hollywood Park's traditional Thanksgiving Day program, which begins earlier than normal at 11 a.m.

My best bet of the day comes in the fifth race, where trainer James Cassidy sends out 15-1 long shot Mississippian in the 1 1/2-mile event for optional claimers that is off the turf because of the recent rains. Don't be afraid to bet Danny Sorenson, a veteran who doesn't get many live mounts but takes advantage when he does.

In the nightcap, I like Dark Intrigue, 6-1 on the morning line. Jose Valdivia Jr. stays aboard for this 4-year-old Deputy Minister gelding, who raced wide in his last for trainer Mike Puype, who's having a fine meeting with three wins from 18 starters.

Good luck today, and Happy Thanksgiving!

Wow ... there is a winter in Southern California after all. We have rain today at Hollywood Park, witnessed by the fact we had two scratches in the first race Wednesday, leaving us with a three-horse field.

Here are a few horses to check out:

4th -- Ann's Plan and Joe Talamo will be tough here. Turks Rebecca also figures, and Red Lollipop is the long-shot play.

5th -- Cool Haleigh looks strong with Joel Rosario aboard, and Carmel Coffee also looks live in this spot. Held Fast will set the pace and could go gate to wire in a race taken off the turf because of the rain.

6th -- Delaware Doe switches to Garrett Gomez after finishing third at Golden Gate. Trigranaut is the long-shot play.

7th -- Double Dip could give Gomez back-to-back wins, and Street Match also figures to fire in this allowance event.

8th -- This race is also off the turf and I think three horses have good shots here -- Our Man Luke, Lahcotah and Hog's Hollow.

Good luck today!

One of the benefits that the mandated synthetic tracks were supposed to provide were bigger fields. But it's becoming increasingly more difficult for proponents of the artificial surfaces to use that argument after looking at the sizes of fields recently at Hollywood Park.

Last week, there were 42 races run at the Inglewood oval and almost half -- 20 -- included fields of seven or less horses. Six races last week included five-horse fields.

The jury is also still out on whether these synthetic surfaces are safer for the horses. There were two more fatalities on Hollywood Park's Cushion Track on Saturday, and Fil's Regent broke down after Sunday's ninth race shortly after the wire.

We had a tough beat on Fire Wood yesterday. He came flying home at 10-1 in a six-horse field and came up a half-length short to the 4-5 favorite, but that's been the history of his career. He's run second 13 times now in 32 starts.

Here are a few horses we like today:

3rd -- All Saint should get the job done here under jockey Luis Contreras.

7th -- Cayambe likes the 7-furlong distance, having won twice in five starts, and gets the services of Tyler Baze. Absolute Glory, with Chantal Sutherland in the saddle, is the upset special in this optional claimer.

9th -- Fil's Regent is my best bet of the day at 12-1 on the morning line. He gets a five-pound weight break with Michael Martinez riding and I think he'll be moving fastest of all in the stretch.

Good luck today!

I love Hi Flyin Indy in today's second race at Hollypark. The 2-year-old son of A.P. Indy has a race under his belt, is stretching out for the first time and retains the services of Rafael Bejarano. He's my best bet of the day after we clicked with Ransom Captive ($9.60) last night.

Here are a few more horses I like today:

3rd -- Fire Wood's win record is dismal (32-2-12-4), but he's never raced this cheaply. He was wide in his last and trainer Ron Ellis might have found the right spot for this 6-year-old gelding. Bridled Quest also deserves a look.

4th -- Matching Whites is solid in this maiden special weight.

5th -- Swiss Ski, Evaluate and Tactical Talent are all live. Good spot for an exacta box.

8th -- Dusty Trail, Cee Bargara and Funny Me are difficult to separate. Another good spot for exacta box.

9th -- Sweetwaterwind looks live here after a pair of runner-up efforts, and Dollabeeratcoaches is the upsetter.

Good luck today!

Hmmmm ... more purse cuts on the horizon at Hollywood Park, so the TOC and the account-wagering companies get a California deal done in order for out-of-state bettors to wager again. What a coincidence, huh? This deal should have been done at the start of the Hollywood Park meeting, not almost a month into it and at a cost of millions for all concerned.

Still no national agreement, which is what the Thoroughbred Horsemen's Group is seeking. But negotiations on that front continue. No details announced on the settlement, but you can bet that both sides gave a little, which is what should have happened before the mess reached this point.

A good-news announcement this evening from Hollywood Park, which has lost a lot of betting because out-of-state fans haven't been able to bet on-line and by phone on the Inglewood track this season:

Hollywood Park announced that as a result of an agreement between some account wagering companies and the Thoroughbred Owners of California, that account wagering on races conducted at Hollywood Park would be available commencing Friday, November 21, to those residing outside of California. The restoration of interstate wagering through account wagering companies lessens the severity of a necessary purse cut that will now be approximately 5% overall.

Jack Liebau, President of Hollywood Park, said that "the purse cut would have been far greater had account wagering not been restored." Liebau added, that "the initial purse schedule had under estimated the adverse impact that economic conditions would have on handle and that wagering during that past week had been particularly impacted by further announcements regarding the deteriorating economy. It is anticipated that this purse reduction will take effect on Wednesday, November 26.

Break out the cash, there's a huge pick-six carryover at Hollywood Park tonight. The pick six runs on races three through eight, with first post for the third scheduled for approximately 8 p.m.

Here's who I like:

3rd -- Ringmaster. He's strictly a long shot, so don't single this guy, especially with his dismal win record (30-1-4-4). But he's dropping two levels and the rider who rode him to his lone win on Sept. 12 at Fairplex Park -- Octavio Vergara -- stays aboard. He could fire, and at 15-1 on the morning line he's definitely worth using at the back end of trifectas and superfectas.

4th -- Heywatchulookingat is another long shot, 30-1 on the morning line, but he raced wide into the stretch last out at Hollywood Park on Nov. 1 and he'll get a five-pound weight break with the jockey switch to Michael Martinez.

5th -- My best bet of the night is Ransom Captive, who's been racing against graded-stakes horses and drops into this allowance spot. He figures to be rolling late under Mike Smith. Woodland City and Wickednwackyingrid also have shots here.

6th -- Eight Below, with Martin Pedroza up, is another who can pick up the win with a late rally. He raced wide last time and Pedroza sticks with him. Trainer Michael Machowsky has had only 90 starters this year, but he's won with 20 percent of them. Two others to consider in this $25,000 claimer -- Fantasy Free and Red Hot Flame.

7th -- Life At Ten, 7-5 on the morning line, looks like a solid single in this spot. He gets the services of Garrett Gomez.

8th -- I don't have a strong opinion here, but Dave's Delivery looks live, as do Mark of a Star, First Contact, Blame the Wine and Paddlin Mud.

Good luck tonight!

Here in Southern California, harness racing is 400 miles away (at Cal Expo in Sacramento) and big-time harness racing is even more distant, so it's easy to forget about that branch of the sport. Here's some unintended drama surrounding the nation's top standardbred and his bid for history in the harness equivalent of the Breeders' Cup.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) -- Deweycheatumnhowe has developed a throat abscess, jeopardizing his appearance next weekend in the Breeders Crown.

The Hambletonian winner, and a leading contender for Harness Horse of the Year honors, is heavily favored in the 3-year-old Colt Trot, one of eight finals worth a combined $4.9 million at the Meadowlands Racetrack on Nov. 29.

Fortunately, his division did not require an elimination, which would have been held Saturday night. If the problem clears, Deweycheatumnhowe could still attempt to join Mack Lobell (1987) and Malabar Man (1997) as the only trotting colts to win Breeders Crowns at 2 and 3.

"In two years he has never had a thing wrong with him, so I guess it had to happen sometime," said trainer and driver Ray Schnittker. "I'll wait till Monday and see what I'm going to do. We're lucky there was no elimination."

Deweycheatumnhowe has won 22-of-24 starts, earning over $3 million.

Our racetracks' schedules for next year have been set by the California Horse Racing Board.

The Southern California slate:

Santa Anita -- Dec. 26 (2008)-April 19
Hollywood Park -- April 22-July 19
Del Mar -- July 22-Sept. 9
Fairplex Park -- Sept. 10-Sept. 28
Oak Tree at Santa Anita -- Sept. 30-Oct. 8
Hollywood Park -- Nov. 11-Dec. 21
Los Alamitos (quarter horses) -- Jan. 1-Dec. 20

One of the niceties of the Southern California racing season is the annual presentation of the George Woolf Award to a jockey who has impressed his peers on and off the track. Many of the past winners show up at Santa Anita for the ceremony and are applauded by nostalgic fans. Nominees for the 2009 award were named today in the news release below.

Santa Anita Park announced today a list of five finalists for the 60th annual Santa Anita George Woolf Memorial Jockey Award, with the winner to be announced in January. Gary Baze, Calvin Borel, Javier Castellano, David Flores and John Velazquez will face an electorate comprised of their peers and one of the five will be selected the recipient of the 2009 Woolf Award.

I don't like a lot on today's card at Hollywood Park, but the first and last races did catch my eye.

I think Sunset Tijuana (8-5 morning line) and Stormy Racer (4-1) are live in the opener and I'd play both in early doubles, pick threes and the early pick four.

In the nightcap, I like Bonita Birdie, a 20-1 long shot. She's broken slowly in three of her five starts and had a wide trip in the other two. Joel Rosario rides for the first time, and in a wide-open race I think she's got a great shot to at least hit the board.

Good luck today!

This may come as a shock to those who watched Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator run 1-2 in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but there was a better-regarded European horse this year.

LONDON (AP) -- Zarkava, the unbeaten filly who defeated the boys in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, was chosen Europe's Horse of the Year at the Cartier Racing Awards on Monday night.

The brilliant 3-year-old owned by the Aga Khan won all five of her starts this year, capped by a two-length victory in the Arc against Europe's best middle-distance horses.

Zarkava won the award over Breeders' Cup Classic winner Raven's Pass, English Derby winner New Approach, five-time Group 1 winner Duke of Marmalade and four-time Group 1 winner and Classic runner-up Henrythenavigator.

Recently retired from racing, the versatile Zarkava was a perfect 7-for-7 during her career, which included wins ranging in distance from a mile to 1½ miles.

Zarkava also was chosen top 3-year-old filly, ahead of Breeders' Cup Mile winner Goldikova, Lush Lashes, Halfway To Heaven and Natagora. New Approach was the Cartier winner in the 3-year-old colt category.

Other winners were Duke of Marmalade (Older Horse); Yeats (Champion Stayer), Marchand D'or (Sprinter), Mastercraftsman (2-year-old Colt) and Rainbow View (2-year-old Filly).

The awards were determined by a points system, and media and fan voting.

A filly whose name starts with Z wins Horse of the Year. Could this be a good omen for Zenyatta in the North American Horse of the Year contest? The difference, of course, might be that Zarkava beat males, Zenyatta didn't face them.

In a statement distributed to the media late Saturday night, Jess Jackson, majority owner of reigning Horse of the Year Curlin, announced that the 4-year-old colt will be retired to stud in 2009 but could race one more time if the conditions were right. He then goes on to make a case for Curlin's record being the best ever.

"Curlin has proven himself across two continents with 16 starts, the honor of 2007 Horse of the Year and the greatest North American money-earner in racing history," Jackson said in the release. "He always gave it his all and has done everything we have asked of him. I am proud to announce that he will start a new career in 2009 and contribute his soundness, stamina, durability and athleticism to the breed. I am looking forward to seeing his foals compete and possibly exceed his unequaled racing record."

Unequaled racing record? Don't get me wrong, Mr. Jackson deserves kudos for racing Curlin as a 4-year-old at a time when many owners of valuable racehorses retire their stars after their 3-year-old seasons. That's good for their wallets, but bad for a sport that needs more equine heroes like Curlin, Big Brown and Zenyatta. Curlin was a very, very good colt, good enough to win the Preakness Stakes when he was still relatively inexperienced, good enough to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup in consecutive years and good enough to travel to Dubai and win the world's richest race last March.

But unequaled racing record? Yes, he's North America's all-time leading money-winner, but is there anyone out there who would argue that horses the likes of Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, Forego and others who raced beyond their 3-year-old years could not have won the Dubai World Cup if the race had been around then and would not have earned much more money than they did if the purses had been as large then as they are now? I mean, how much money would the great gelding Forego have won if they had the size purses back in the 1970's that they have now?

Let's hear from some of you readers ... is Curlin one of the all-time greats, does he deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew and other great horses of the past? Or is he just a very good horse whose legacy may or may not be enhanced because he set the all-time earnings record in an age where $500,000 and million-dollar purses are now the norm rather than the exception for some of these prestigious Grade I races like the Santa Anita Handicap, Hollywood Gold Cup, Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup?

Sorry, but Curlin doesn't even crack my top-five list of all-time horses, which includes Spectacular Bid, Secretariat, Affirmed, Ruffian and Forego.

Let's update our ratings for the local jockeys after three weeks at Hollywood Park. As I explained recently, I give a rider a point for each win, award a bonus point for each long-shot win (10-1 or higher) and each photo-finish win (neck or less), and deduct a point for each loss on a post-time favorite.

Here are the leaders:

Overall: Rafael Bejarano (+15 points), Michael Baze (+11), Jose Valdivia (+8) and Pedro Arambula (+8).
Main-track sprints: M. Baze (+8), Arambula (+6), Martin Pedroza (+6).
Main-track routes: Bejarano (+6), M. Baze (+2), Arambula (+2), Garrett Gomez (+2), Tyler Baze (+2).
Turf: Bejarano (+9), Victor Espinoza (+5), Valdivia (+4).
Speed: Arambula has four wire-to-wire wins, Pedroza and T. Baze three each.
Closers: Bejarano has eight wins on horses who rallied from the back half of the field (and has no wire-to-wire wins). Gomez has eight back-of-the-pack wins (and one wire-to-wire).
Long shots: Valdivia has three wins paying 10-1 or more, M. Baze and Jon Court two each.

Good handicappers don't bet on jockeys, they bet on horses. But good handicappers do pay attention to whether a particular jockey "fits" a particular horse in a certain race. Hope these numbers help you to do that.

Great to see the Daily Racing Form's Marty McGee's glowing account of Michael Wrona's audition for the Churchill Downs announcer job. I think Wrona, formerly of Hollywood Park, is the best in the business.

McGee begins:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- No one can reasonably argue that Michael Wrona is not an immensely talented race-caller. Wrona is the entire package -- uncannily accurate while laugh-out-loud entertaining at once.

During his six-day race-calling stint that ended Sunday at Churchill Downs, Wrona reaffirmed his reputation as one of the best callers in North America. With his clipped and distinct Australian accent, Wrona, 42, had the good fortune of calling a major milestone on his first day, Nov. 11, when Julien Leparoux rode a Churchill record-tying seven winners.

Such an extraordinary feat fit perfectly into Wrona's wheelhouse. Wrona long has been known for races such as the 1990 Hollywood Turf Cup, a marathon turf race in which he said about Itsallgreektome, "Can he stay the distance? He stays like a mother-in-law!!" His quips about Leparoux were numerous, timely, and clever, so much so that fans not only were talking about Leparoux, but Wrona, too. ...

Wrona was the third of five callers to audition this fall at Churchill, where officials say they will decide before the end of the year who will replace Luke Kruytbosch, who died unexpectedly in July. Wrona followed Bobby Neuman (Oct. 26 to Nov. 2) and Travis Stone (Nov. 5-9). Larry Collmus will take his turn Wednesday through Sunday, followed by Mark Johnson (Nov. 26-29).

As Marty goes on to note, some wonder if Churchill Downs would hire an Australian to serve as voice of the Kentucky Derby. If Churchill believes the Derby is the greatest race in the world, not just the greatest in America, it will hire the best regardless of accent.

Fan feedback is being taken at announcer@kyderby.com. I assume that means fans from all over, so if you're a Wrona fan, give him your support.

There are only a few horses I like today. Here they are:

2nd -- Ramsgate should have his way with this group and there's a good chance trainer Bobby Frankel will sweep the early double, also winning with Ksar Ghilane in the opener. Ballistic Heat is a live long shot in the second. He should be closing strongly in the stretch and gets a five-pound weight break with apprentice Pedro Arambula.

3rd -- Abstract Fact is going up in class, from $25,000 to $40,000 maidens, but she raced wide into the stretch in her last and I think she's a good long-shot play here under Chantal Sutherland.

Good luck today!

Here are a few horses I like on today's nine-race card, highlighted by the $65,000 Audrey Kenis Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on the turf for 3-year-old fillies:

3rd -- Medjool was 5-wide into the stretch on Oct. 24 at Oak Tree, switches to Rafael Bejarano and is trained by the ever-capable Julio Canani. He's a solid play. Beresford is a live long shot.

5th -- Tahoe Kid is my best bet of the day. Trained by the white-hot John Sadler, the 2-year-old gelding goes from Luis Contreras to Tyler Baze, who wins at a 22 percent clip for Sadler.

6th -- Unusually Hot has won 3 of 10 lifetime and retains the services of Joel Rosario, who appears to be breaking out of a brief slump. Trainer Kathy Walsh has won with 24 percent of her 84 starters.

7th -- Hold Fast comes out of a maiden special weight where the winner came back and won his next start. Trainer Neil Drysdale has already won three times at the meet and figures strong in this spot. Tevez the Tiger also deserves a look.

Good luck today!

There's a $62,000 pick-six carryover at Hollywood Park tonight, and I believe I have a super single to use in the opening leg.

Exotic Story, trained by Matthew Chew, is sitting on a win after a big effort in a sprint on the turf on Oct. 23 at Oak Tree. Aaron Gryder stays aboard the 3-year-old gelding, who broke his maiden by three lengths at Del Mar three races back. Gryder rode him that day. He's 2-1 on the morning line, but I think you'll get at least that price or maybe 5-2 or 3-1.

Some other horses I like tonight:

2nd -- Kissy's Chaos is 6-1 on the morning line and looks good in this maiden special weight. Martin Garcia stays aboard, which is a good sign since he rides a lot of trainer Vladimir Cerin's live horses. He had a wide trip in his last on Sept. 13 at Fairplex Park and he's going to come out running tonight.

4th -- Trainer Danny Montes (5 for 30, 13 percent) doesn't have a huge stable, but he's got a big shot in this $25,000 maiden claimer. Jockey Kayla Stra figures to help the 6-1 morning line, and this 3-year-old filly drew the advantageous outside post in the eight-horse field.

6th -- Cubs Molina is 4-1 on the morning line and the 3-year-old maiden drops from $40,000 to $25,000. He lost by three-quarters of a length the last time he was in with this kind, and Gryder should have lots of horse in the stretch.

8th -- On paper, Afleet Bud is going to have a lot of pace to run at in the night's finale. If Garcia gets a clean trip, this race sets up well for the 3-year-old son of Northern Afleet.

Good luck tonight!

Some horses to consider in the last three races on the Friday-night card at Hollywood Park:

6th -- Outlaw Yodeler (No. 7), 6-1 on the morning line. He has been working as if he means to open a lead he can hold this time. Trainer Peter Eurton switches to jockey Michael Baze, who's off to a great start at the meet.

7th -- Forest Miss (5), 4-1. Jerry Hollendorfer's filly has a style that might work even better on the turf than it did on the main track in her win at Santa Anita.

8th -- Premier Issue (7), 4-1. Now that he has gotten used to passing horses, he has to learn to pass the leader.

No jockey in the past 35 years has taken the Southland by storm like Rafael Bejarano, who is on the verge of becoming the third rider and first since Patrick Valenzuela in 2003 to sweep the five major Southern California meets in one year. Chris McCarron also accomplished the feat in 1983.

Going into tonight's card at Hollywood Park, Bejarano is winning at a 27 percent clip and holds a commanding 19-10 lead over Garrett Gomez in the jockey standings. Michael Baze is third with eight wins.

Yes, Gomez is the man most trainers go to nationally when they are looking for a rider. Currently, Gomez leads the nation's jockeys with $21.8 million in earnings, but Bejarano sits third, right behind Kent Desormeaux ($14.8 million), with $14.7 million.

If the 26-year-old Bejarano continues to make California his home, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with for quite a while. He's the real deal. Polished, patient and a joy to work with, from what we hear.

Sheikh Mohammed's plan to prepare Midshipman in Dubai for next year's Kentucky Derby has prompted some free advice from Bill Christine, now an on-line columnist. As Bill notes:

It is not hard to predict that Sheik Mohammed will win the Derby one day, but because he is his own man, has fierce national pride and is walking proof that royalty is not exempt from bullheadedness, he's determined to pick up the roses with a horse who's prepped for the race in Dubai.

Read Bill's historical perspective on the sheikh's plan for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner by clicking here.

Not a lot of prices that I like today, but there are some solid plays if you don't mind low odds:

1st --Sister Lucy and jockey Aaron Gryder could be long gone in this spot. He's 2-1 on the morning line, though, so bet judiciously.

2nd -- Bobby Frankel holds the ace in this race -- 9-5 morning-line favorite Oceanography. The early price is not attractive, but it's better than any interest rate you'll get at the bank today. How about a Sister Lucy-Oceanography daily double?

7th -- Mean Heat and Powerofvoodoo are nice price plays in this $25,000 optional claimer on the turf. Mean Heat, with Joe Talamo aboard, is 6-1 on the morning line after racing five-wide into the stretch. Powerofvoodoo will be flying in the stretch with Chantal Sutherland. If the pace is swift, this 10-1 morning-line outsider can win.

8th -- Pink Polkadots has had 16 chances, but she's never raced this cheaply. Talamo rides and he's got a big shot to sweep the late double. Halo's Clean Sheet will be tough in this $25,000 maiden claimer and she's an attractive 8-1 on the morning line.

Good luck today!

I wonder if that 5-2 morning line will stand up for Rush Rush in today's seventh race at Hollywood Park. Rush Rush is second on the line to Dilemma (2-1) but looks like the pick to me, and he could make a pick-three or pick-four single in the middle of cheaper races.

Draw a line through Rush Rush's race before the layoff, and he has the best recent performance. The gelding switches back to Victor Espinoza, who has been great on the Hollywood Park turf, and he has been working well for trainer Mike Machowski, who is good with comebackers.

Lang Field has a chance to lead all the way but should be caught by Rush Rush and Dilemma, hopefully more the former than the latter.

There's no pick-six carryover today at Hollywood Park, but if you're still going to play it and are looking for a way to keep the price of your ticket down, here are two possible singles for you to consider:

4th -- Trainer Lewis Cenicola doesn't have many horses and he's won only once in 44 tries in 2008, but Sweet October looks good enough to give him his second victory of the year. Jon Court sticks with the Bertrando filly, who held her speed to the stretch for the first time in her last race over the lawn at Santa Anita on Oct. 17. She figures to be tough here. She's 2-1 on the morning line and is a perfect single in early pick fours and the pick six.

6th -- Casual Encounter is another 2-1 morning-line choice who appears to be sitting on a score with Victor Espinoza aboard. The 2-year-old filly had a really wide trip last out on Oct. 3 from the No. 10 hole and is drawn in closer (No. 4) today. She's live and she'll win with a clean trip.

Good luck today!

As Hollywood Park starts its third week today, which jockeys are doing best and worst?

Rafael Bejarano leads the official standings with 14 wins, ahead of Garrett Gomez's 8 and Michael Baze's 7.

But I have my own way to rate jockeys. I come up with a number for each rider by adding up the good things he does -- wins, long-shot wins, photo-finish wins, stakes wins -- and subtracting the bad things -- losses aboard betting favorites.

By this system, Michael Baze is off to the best start at Hollywood Park with +9 (just to show you how it works: M. Baze has 7 wins, 2 long-shot wins, 1 photo-finish win, 1 stakes win minus 2 beaten favorites), followed by Bejarano at +8 and Victor Espinoza and Martin Pedroza each at +6.

Gomez is at 0, and the rider who's really struggling is Joel Rosario at -4. Rosario is 0 for 6 aboard favorites on the main track.

Looking closer:

- Best in main-track sprints so far: M. Baze.
- Best in main-track routes: Bejarano.
- Best on turf: Espinoza.
- Biggest difference: Gomez has been good in two-turn races and turf races, bad in sprints.
- Perfect record: Pedro Arambula has 3 wins, no losing favorites.
- Best speed rider: Pedroza has 3 wire-to-wire wins.
- Best come-from-behinder: Bejarano has rallied 4 winners from the back half of the field.
- Best long-shot rider: Jose Valdivia has 3 winners paying 10-1 or more.

We'll try to update this stuff every week.

Jockey Julien Leparoux, familiar to Southern California racing fans, made history at Churchill Downs today. Here are highlights of the news release from Louisville:

Leparoux rode seven winners on the Veterans Day card Tuesday at Churchill Downs to match the single-day record of Hall of Famer Pat Day, who initially set the mark on June 20, 1984.

Leparoux, a 25-year-old native of Senlis, France, also rode six winners from nine mounts at Churchill Downs on June 27, 2007.

Leparoux, who has won three riding titles at Churchill Downs and holds a commanding lead during the 26-day meet that concludes Nov. 29, won on the first seven mounts of his nine rides on the card.

Leparoux's winning mounts were Diva's Gold ($6.40) in the first, Yikes ($7.80) in the second, Troutdale ($8.40) in the third, Gerivello ($10.40) in the fourth, Variant ($11) in the fifth, Majestic Feline ($4.40) in the seventh and Runway West ($12) in the eighth.

"I got a little lucky picking up the one mount for Calvin (Borel)," said Leparoux, who took over for Borel on Troutdale because Borel's mother died Monday night and the rider took off his mounts. "I really wanted to win it for Calvin.

"This was just my lucky day."

Leparoux, who now has 285 career victories at Churchill Downs where he first rode in the 2005 Fall Meet, finished eighth aboard Rocketinthegate, an 8-1 shot, in the ninth race and came home second aboard 3-1 second choice Sinister in the 10th.

At the conclusion of Tuesday's card, Leparoux had a 31-19 lead over Robby Albarado in the jockey standings.

In the featured $48,000 Veteran's Day Purse, Gulf Coast Farms' Distorted Passion rallied from off the pace under Shaun Bridgmohan to score a 2 ½-length victory over Silent Street.

Distorted Passion, a 3-year-old Kentucky-bred daughter of Distorted Humor, covered the seven furlongs over a fast track in 1:23.87 in winning for the second time in 10 career starts.

Distorted Passion returned mutuels of $5.80, $3.60 and $2.60 as the favorite in the field of nine. Silent Street, ridden by E.T. Baird, paid $4 and $3, while Sheltered, ridden by Robby Albarado, returned $3.60 to show.

When I have nights like Friday, when, borrowing a quote from Tommy Lasorda, "I couldn't hit water if I fell out of a (bleepin) boat," I need help with my wagers.

Hit us up with some of your best bets and why you like your picks. This is your chance to shine as a handicapper in a public forum.

Here's a few horses I like today on a day when Hollywood Park has a $112,000 pick-six carryover. I hope you cashed on Green Lyons yesterday, our best bet that paid $15.20 for trainer Neil Drysdale.

1st -- Black Magic Mama, coming out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, is a good single in early exotics. If you want to go one deeper, throw in Vikkilee and jockey Rafael Bejarano.

2nd -- Short Sentence and Cherie's Dream, but they are both long-shot plays, so get a good price before you go to the window.

3rd -- Angelonmyshoulder could give Drysdale another win in this turf race, and Great Siege is live here as well.

4th -- In the pick-six opener, I like Beauteous Maximus to break on top and possibly go gate to wire. Leavethegateopen will also be tough in this maiden special weight.

5th -- If you're going to single a horse in the pick six, Pocosin's Game Boy is the choice. He's got the speed to wire this group of turf sprinters with Bejarano aboard for trainer Doug O'Neill. Candy Pull will be closing.

6th -- I'd feel confident going with two horses in this spot -- Kickin' Kongo and Floating On Air.

7th -- Another two-horse play in the pick six, North Fork and One Chin Again.

8th -- Talk about a wide-open feature race, all nine fillies and mares have the numbers to win this thing. But I think High Heel Sneakers is the class of the race and Caprice could also prove tough.

9th -- Another wide-open affair, where I think five horses -- Steamy Story, Hebesmallbutmighty, Axiom, Moonlit Habit and Common Trust are live. If you're playing a huge pick-six ticket with friends, throw them all in. Looking for one price play? Steamy Story, at 12-1 on the morning line, has the speed to control this race.

Good luck today!

Wow, we got hammered with our long shots Friday night at Hollywood Park. But the beauty of playing horses at nice odds is that you have to connect on only 2 of every 20 bets at 20-1 to make money. If you continually bet 2-1 shots, you have to hit 2 of every 4 wagers to come out ahead. The trick is playing 20-1 shots that are live and have a chance as opposed to 20-1 shots that have no chance. Come up with a system of picking long shots that works for you and stick with it. I've had a system for more than 25 years that works and has produced horses that won at 104-1, 82-1, 60-1, etc. Of course, when you experience success, it leads to confidence and gives you that determination to stick with the system you've devised.

Now, I'm not saying I don't play any horses that are less than 20-1. No, if a horse I like fits my system and it's trained by a guy like Bobby Frankel, Richard Mandella, Neil Drysdale, John Sadler, Doug O'Neill, etc., I'll lower my sights because these are proven successful conditioners. I also like certain trainer-jockey combinations. If you look hard enough, you'll find trainers who use certain riders on live horses. Jump on those no matter what the odds, but I generally don't like anything less than 5-2.

So with all that said, here are some plays I like today, most of which fit into the non-long shot category:

1st -- Linda Lou is part of a Mandella entry that might go off at too low a price. I would play here at 5-2 or higher.

2nd -- Superfecta is 2-1 on the morning line and most likely won't fetch that 5-2 price we're looking for, but I think he's a good single in doubles, triples and early pick fours.

3rd -- Green Lyons is my best bet of the afternoon. He comes out of the Grade I E.P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine Park in Toronto for Drysdale. He's 4-1 on the morning line so I think I'll get my 5-2.

5th -- Makor's Love is one of the few long shots today that fits my criteria. I'm certain I'll get 20-1 or more. Alex's Wish and Jody's Included are safer plays that should go postward at decent odds.

6th -- Young Joe is the speed of the race and trainer David Hofmans is taking off the blinkers. If David Flores can ration the speed on the 3-year-old gelded son of Roar, he could be tough in this 1 1/16-mile claiming event. Dixie Meister, for trainer Julio Canani, also looks good here.

8th -- Held Up, for trainer Ted H. West, is my play here. I should get 5-2 or better. Colonel Courtney is a gate-to-wire threat in this spot and should also be considered. West has three wins this week, including two Friday night, and might be on his way to a big Hollypark meet.

10th -- Bonita Birdie, O Firefly and Plaza Queen caught my eye here. They are all coming out of the same $40,000 maiden claimer on Oct. 18 at Oak Tree. Now, you can't make money betting $20 on three horses in the same race that go postward at 3-1 or 7-2. Not a good risk. But if one goes off at 10-1 or higher and the other two at 3-1, why not use the 10-1 shot as a key horse in exactas with the other two?

Good luck today!

While this dispute between the Thoroughbred Owners of California and the account-wagering companies over out-of-state revenue continues, there appears to be no end in sight.

Prominent trainer/owner Bruce Headley took out an ad in today's Daily Racing Form voicing his displeasure with the deal owners are currently getting, and he says he will not run any more of his horses until this impasse ends.

It's not the disagreement per se, but the timing of it that makes no sense. Just when the industry and racing fans are feeling good about a tremendous Breeders' Cup, this dispute over money crops up while a good number of racing fans are living paycheck to paycheck.

Bob Reeves, president of the newly formed national Thoroughbred Horsemen's Group, of which the TOC has aligned itself with, claims owners nationwide are losing a collective $1 billion per year. He says it costs about $2 billion for the owners to maintain their stables yearly and that national purses add up to a little more than $1 billion.

There is a pretty significant gap between the amount of money that goes to support live racing, i.e. horsemen, when a bet is made through account wagering as opposed to a bet physically made at the racetrack. Reeves says the THG's goal is to narrow that gap.

No one disputes the fact that account wagering is the fastest-growing segment of the industry. Last I heard, companies like TVG and Youbet.com were not hurting financially. By the same token, is the increase the THG is seeking from these companies out of whack at a time when on-track attendance and overall handle is down throughout the country?

Joe Blow from Lincoln, Neb. doesn't care about how much money TVG or the horsemen are making or losing. He just wants to bet the races at Hollywood Park this month, and right now he can't. How much longer will he care about California racing while this dispute lingers?

At a time when this sport should be pulling on the same end of the rope and trying to lure new fans to its product, two factions are doing their best to drive the old fan base away.

It's time to sit down and hammer out an agreement that is fair to both horsemen and the account-wagering companies. Stubborness at this point in the game is only hurting the industry.

Hollywood Park runs the meet's first stakes for 2-year-old males today, and it will be interesting to see if the better young horses come out of that race or the maiden sprint an hour earlier.

The stakes is The Real Quiet, a 1 1/16-mile race that finds Gateway to Glory winner Charlie's Moment in the outside post and the excuse-ridden maiden Mark S the Cooler starting from the rail. When We Met goes for two in a row, and Escalon tries to bounce back from finishing third as the Cal Cup Juvenile favorite.

The straight-maiden race I refered to, the seventh race today, has a bunch of classy-looking colts: Keep Thinking, a $2.4 million son of A.P. Indy making his second start for Sheikh Mohammed; Position A, a $675,000 first-timer for B. Wayne Hughes; Molten Lava, a first-timer for Juddmonte Farms; and fast-working Flat Bold and The Pamplemousse. All could get beaten this time by Jeff Mullins' swift Gato Go Win, but watch out down the road.

I'm going to pass on tonight's pick-six carryover of more than $232,000 and concentrate on some long shots. Here are a few I like:

2nd -- Who You and Fortunate Victory, the latter of whom is 12-1 on the morning line and has a big shot.
4th -- Dry Man's Gulch is 8-1 on the morning line, but figures to get bet because he's trained by John Sadler. If he goes off anywhere close to 8-1, I'd bet him.
6th -- I think four horses, all at 20-1 or better on the morning line, have a shot in this $12,500 claimer for 3-year-old fillies. Fabulous Moolah, Applaud Dubai, Soorahguska, and Concettina are my plays here, but I'm only going to bet them at 20-1 or more.
7th -- Take a good look at Shadow of Illinois if he goes postward at anywhere close to his early 8-1 odds.
8th -- If you're losing and looking to get out, try a four-horse exacta box including Nightnightnight, Ideal Story, Miss Caper and Warrensgoodwarrior. I'd also bet any that go off at 20-1 or higher straight.

Good luck tonight!

Ray Nelson had a $24.60 winner in today's L.A. Newspaper Group consensus, more evidence of the power of the "lone wolf" picks we wrote about this morning.

Ray made Miguel's Mascot his top pick in the fifth race at Hollywood Park. Our other handicappers left Miguel's Mascot out of their top threes. The 2-year-old colt won at 11-1 odds on the drop from stakes to the claiming level.

Ray now has hit with two of his 11 lone-wolf picks at the Hollywood Park meet for a $44.40 total return on $2 win bets and a profit of more than 100 percent.

Terry Turrell also is ahead on this kind of selection -- when he has a horse on top, and none of the other guys in the LANG consensus has the horse 1-2-3.

Ray's other such pick today finished off the board. That was Affirminator in the fourth race.

Of Terry's two, Atka finished third at 13-1 in the fifth and D. Double You was off the board in the seventh.

Let's see, I've got 34 cents in my pocket. What can you put in?

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -- A sale to buy a minority interest in Horse of the Year Curlin failed to produce an acceptable offer.

The sale was by sealed bid, and the next step is a private sale of the 20 percent stake in North America's career money winner.

A state judge had ordered the minority share of Curlin be sold to help satisfy a $42 million judgment against the horse's minority owners, William Gallion and Shirley Cunningham. Prospective buyers had until Wednesday to submit the bid.

The 80 percent majority interest held by winemaker Jess Jackson isn't affected by the sale.

There are two good ways to use consensus boxes like the one that appears in L.A. Newspaper Group sports sections. One is to look for a horse that's picked by all of the handicappers (a true "consensus" selection). Another is to look for a horse that's picked by one handicapper but not mentioned in the top three by anybody else.

You get the reasoning behind the second approach if you've ever worked on a committee, where the brightest ideas always come from one member with a mind of his or her own, while the group as a whole tends to get bogged down in conventional wisdom.

Basically, if one handicapper picks a horse everyone else ignores, it could be because the lone wolf sees something the others overlook.

In our consensus, Terry Turrell and Ray Nelson tend to take unique stands more than Bob Ike and Jerry Antonucci do. And so far at the Hollywood Park meet, both Terry and Ray have done very well with these horses. If you'd bet on the lone-wolf picks of either man, you'd be making a profit.

For obvious reasons, lone-wolf horses win less often than consensus picks. But they can more than make up for the low percentage with high payoffs. Here are Terry's and Ray's totals so far.

Turrell: 12 top selections that didn't appear in anybody else's top three; 2 winners, paying $22.60 (Rivergrade Boy, Oct. 30) and $21.60 (Friendly Half, Nov. 1). Total: a $20.20 profit (84 percent!) on $2 win bets.

Nelson: 9 top selections that didn't appear in anybody else's top three; 1 winner, paying $19.80 (Catastaire, Nov. 5). Total: a $1.80 profit (10 percent) on $2 win bets.

Nelson and Turrell have two lone-wolf picks each on today's Hollywood Park card:

- Nelson likes Affirminator (No. 4) in the fourth race; Affirminator is 8-1 on the morning line. He also likes Miguel's Mascot (8) in the fifth; Miguel's Mascot is 12-1.

- Turrell likes Atka (7) in the fifth; Atka is 6-1. And he likes D. Double You (5) in the seventh, following the scratch of his original top pick Sassou. D. Double You is 5-1.

These might be good horses to, at the very least, throw into your combination bets.

He's no sure thing, but I like Carson's Copper (No. 1) in today's third race at Hollywood Park. He looks set to return to his summer form, and early speed and inside posts were strong on the main track last week.

Carson's Copper is 7-2 on the morning line, and he can be the middle of a modest pick-three. In the second race, I'd use Sognatore (2), Double Mount (3), Blasterman (4), Champagne Squall (6), Job Boss (8) and Lake Meza (9). In the fourth, I'd go with Rochelle's Jimmy (2), Beach House Luis (5) and Echo West (6).

Good luck today.

With the Breeders' Cup over with, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association has released its final top 10 for 2008, based on media voting, with scoring on the 10-9-8 .... system. Look who's No. 1, and look how many horses jumped into the top 10 with Breeders' Cup wins.

1. Zenyatta, 4-year-old filly (11 votes for No. 1), 170 points, 2nd in last poll
2. Curlin, 4-year-old colt (7), 158, 1st
3. Big Brown, 3-year-old colt, 104, 3rd
4. Raven's Pass, 3-year-old colt, 103, unranked
5. Goldikova, 3-year-old filly, 72, unranked
6. Midnight Lute, 5-year-old horse, 69, unranked
7. Commentator, 7-year-old gelding, 46, 4th
8. Stardom Bound, 2-year-old filly, 36, unranked
9. Conduit, 3-year-old colt, 34, unranked
10. Midshipman, 2-year-old colt, 27, unranked

Others receiving votes: Forever Together 26, Ventura 23, Proud Spell 21, Tiago 18, Cocoa Beach 14, Henrythenavigator 14, Music Note 12, Ginger Punch 11, Indian Blessing 8, Vineyard Haven 8, Go Between 6, Eight Belles 5, Albertus Maximus 2, Kip Deville 2, Square Eddie 1.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A juror who vanished during Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens' corruption trial told the judge Monday she lied about her father dying and flew to California to see horse races.

Here's some news about California's best racing mare not named Zenyatta. She's Hystericalady, who was running second in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic before fading to fifth. Remember, she was so well thought of a month earlier that Hystericalady (9-10 odds) was a close second choice to Zenyatta (7-10) in the Lady's Secret at Santa Anita.

LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) -- Hystericalady has earned nearly $2.4 million on the racetrack. On Monday, she fetched $3 million in the sales ring.

Vineyard Haven, the 2-year-old who won a pair of Grade I stakes in New York, has been bought by the Maktoum family's Godolphin Racing, the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse report. Vineyard Haven had been owned by trainer Bobby Frankel in a partnership that included Dodgers manager Joe Torre.

This comes on the heels of Midshipman winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile a month after being purchased by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum's Darley Stable. Bob Baffert has been training Midshipman, but the three-time Kentucky Derby-winner said at the Breeders' Cup that the colt might be taken away and prepared in Dubai for the Triple Crown races.

You thought the Maktoums couldn't get any more powerful in horse racing? In their attempt to win a Kentucky Derby, now they have aquired the two most prominent 2-year-old males in the United States.

The lure of a $126,284 pick six carryover at Hollywood Park today led me to the Racing Form and I came up with some horses you might want to consider throwing in:

I love Thelma Rose in the second race, a horse that can maybe help you win more for your pick six ticket. Thelma Rose's Beyer figures are gradually going up and the 2-year-old Rio Verde filly gets the services of Rafael Bejarano. I think she's going to be very tough in this $40,000 maiden claimer.

In the pick six, here are some horses to consider:

4th -- Ashton Girl and Schill are tough to separate. I like them both. Ashton Girl has the inticing tandem of Paddy Gallagher and Alex Solis, and Schill was claimed in her last by Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins 29 percent of the time off first claim. A dark horse? Saucey Officer has the speed to go gate to wire in this allowance if she takes to the turf and can fire first out after an 11-month layoff.

5th -- Ann's Plan likes Hollywood Park, finishing first and second in two starts on Cushion Track. She drops from $16,000 to $8,000 today and figures to be live. Persian Honey takes a drastic drop from $25,000 to $8,000 and is the speed of the speed here. She figures to be on top early and might be difficult to catch.

6th -- Century Park has gone postward as the favorite in three of four lifetime starts. The Bob Baffert-trained filly, who retains the services of Bejarano, deserves one more shot. Vindictive Cat, part of the Tim Yakteen-trained entry, is live here too.

7th -- Moves Liike a Cat is part of the John Sadler barn, which has been on a year-long roll in Southern California. After flashing early speed in a Cal Cup sprint and fading to seventh, he moves back in with claimers today and is a real threat to go gate to wire. Make Mine Vodka will be one of the threats from behind and should be considered.

9th -- Fili's Regent has had nine chances, but his last shows he's on the verge of finding the winner's circle for trainer Mel Stute. Salah Pick Six is aptly named for a day like today and figures to improve with a race under his belt. He gets a five-pound weight break with a switch to apprentice jockey Pedro Arambula.

Good luck today!

I wonder how many horses have achieved what Flashing Forward will try to do in Hollywood Park's fourth race today when the 4-year-old filly seeks her third consecutive victory on a third kind of surface.

Sept. 6, Fairplex Park: Flashing Forward breaks her maiden in a 6-furlong race on dirt.

Oct. 2, Santa Anita: Flashing Forward wins a starter-allowance sprint on the synthetic main track and pays $20.60.

Today, Hollywood: Trainer Gary Sherlock has entered Flashing Forward in a first-level allowance sprint on turf, the first grass race for the Florida-bred by Outflanker out of Flashy Bold.

Lava Man was the first horse to win Grade I stakes on dirt, turf and synthetic surfaces. He didn't do it in consecutive starts.

I wonder, too, how many horses have won on all three surfaces in their first seven starts, as Flashing Forward can boast if she wins today.

Yes, it's exactly one-half year until the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2, 2009.

Our friend Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form (and formerly of the Daily News) makes fun of people who ask him in the weeks before the race, "Who's your Derby horse?" Jay always says he'll make his pick once all the prep races and training are complete. He says until then it's nuts to lock in on one 3-year-old just for the sake of securing bragging rights if he wins.

While recognizing the wisdom of Jay's view and the fact many good young horses have yet to race, I have a question for everyone today: Who's your Derby horse? Or, more seriously, which 2-year-olds have impressed you the most so far?

Maybe we'll come up with a prize -- beyond bragging rights -- for the reader who's first to name the eventual Kentucky Derby winner in a comment on this blog.

Here's a loose Top Twelve, based on main-track performances this season, that I jotted down right after Midshipman won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last week:

Midshipman
Square Eddie
Run Away and Hide
Street Hero
Charitable Man
Terrain
Vineyard Haven
Cribnote
Pioneer of the Nile
West Side Bernie
Gallant Son
Elusive Bluff

Not long after I wrote the item about the front-running horses moving up at Aqueduct, I bought a copy of today's New York Post to read over lunch. I scanned Post handicapper John DaSilva's selections for the Aqueduct's Saturday card to see if any horses sounded like they fit the angle. That is, they had faded in the previous start but might hold on longer at the new Aqueduct meet.

I found five such horses among DaSilva's top three picks for main-track races. Here's how they did.

Race 1: True Rebel, DaSilva's third choice ("had the lead and tired to second as favorite"), never got close to the lead today and finished third at 6-1 odds.

Race 2: Raffies Deer, DaSilva's second choice ("drops in class after tiring while going longer"), challenged for the lead from the start and won to pay $5.80.

Race 3: Phobia, DaSilva's top choice ("switches to bug after setting the pace and tiring to third as the favorite"), dueled for the lead and won to pay $5.60.

Race 5: Pygmalion, DaSilva's second choice ("had the lead and tired to second in first start since February"), led from gate to wire and paid $4.40.

And finally, best of all:

Race 8: Be Bullish, DaSilva's second choice ("cuts back in distance after chasing the pace and tiring"), sat just behind the front-runners today, won and paid $18.60.

Five examples, four winners, one of them pricey. At least for one afternoon, that's what I call a nice fundamental handicapping angle.

Like betting long shots? Well, I got one for you to consider in today's eighth race at Hollywood Park, a maiden special weight for 2-year-olds on the grass. I think Preemo, a 2-year-old Vindication colt, is going to show big improvement over his debut at Oak Tree on Oct. 4. He ran evenly in his first start, finishing seventh in a 14-horse field, and has two mediocre works since. Joel Rosario, who has established himself as one of the top riders in Southern California in the past year, retains the mount for trainer Jenine Sahadi, who has won only four races in 2008 but is a capable conditioner. I think this guy is going to be closing in the stretch in the six-furlong event and, at 15-1 on the morning line, he's an across-the-board play in this spot.

Fans who play New York races might enjoy some free advice from Nick Kling of the Troy (N.Y.) Record about the differences between the main (dirt) tracks at Belmont Park and Aqueduct, whose winter meet just began. Click here to read it.

One thing that jumps out is that front-runners do better at Aqueduct. This suggests you should look for speed horses who ran out of gas at Belmont to keep going at the Big A.

By the way, I found the Troy Record analysis at equidaily.com, the excellent racing news aggregator.

From National Thoroughbred Racing Association Communications' weekly news release:

Nov. 1, 1938 -- Before a crowd of 40,000 spectators, Seabiscuit, under jockey George Woolf, defeated odds-on favorite War Admiral in the Pimlico Special, run as a winner-take-all match race with a purse of $15,000.