Slim pickings at Hollywood Park on Sunday
There are only a few horses I like today. Here they are:
2nd -- Ramsgate should have his way with this group and there's a good chance trainer Bobby Frankel will sweep the early double, also winning with Ksar Ghilane in the opener. Ballistic Heat is a live long shot in the second. He should be closing strongly in the stretch and gets a five-pound weight break with apprentice Pedro Arambula.
3rd -- Abstract Fact is going up in class, from $25,000 to $40,000 maidens, but she raced wide into the stretch in her last and I think she's a good long-shot play here under Chantal Sutherland.
Good luck today!
Definitely not in love with the first third of the card (though I do agree with your assessment of Abstrach Fact a bit in Race 3), but I do like the rest of the card.
Race 4: #4 Kapalua Bay is working LIGHTS OUT for Ellis off a year layoff and should fire big. Ellis had another one like this two weeks ago (SIXCESS) and that one won in near track record time.
Race 5: Ellis again - this time with the #6 Navigator. I'm going to part-wheel him in exotics with the #2 Air Fair, #4 Silent Stalk and the #8 Successful Friend
Race 6: Canani re-claimed #2 No Ka Oi on closing day at Oak Tree and he's done well with this 5YO mare. Gotta think she's feeling good since exiting the woeful Knapp operation. Going to make a Win/Place bet on her and also use the #8 Carrie With a C and #9 Brendolyn in the late Pick 4.
Race 7: Throw out the the turf start for #7 Grey Storm (10/1) and you get a 4YO that's run well over the Tapeta up north and a decent 3rd at Fairplex at this 25K restricted level. Not in love with the majority of his rivals that have been stuck at this n2l level. Going to single this Moger trainee in the Pick Four.
Race 8: Obviously, #1 Mi Chiamano Mimi (8/5) is the business in the Moccasin and speed has dominated here the past 2 days. If it continues to play that way on the card, she's going to be tough. I'm going to utilize 4 horses in the exacta/trifecta with her: #3 Will O Way, ## Wind Caper (20/1 and working well for Ellis), #6 Pasar Silbano (interesting shipper from Ireland) and #10 Wyoming Ride (first start for Baffert).
Race 10: Either the #1 Loyal Son (drops from MSW for underrated Matlow barn) or recent Mitchell claim #2 Uncle Jeep look to be the two in the nightcap.
I don't think you can ever go wrong betting Ron Ellis, particularly when he uses his top jockey Jose Valdivia Jr., like he is on Kapalua Bay. Interesting that he's riding Victor Espinoza on Navigator in the fifth. Espinoza has ridden only three times for Ellis in the past year. He's using Valdivia on Wind Caper in the feature. Could be a profitable afternoon for Ron.
Tough beat with Kapalua Bay in the fourth today. He looked like a winner for a while at 3-1. Navigator delivered in the next race, returning $3.80. First time Trainer Ron Ellis and jockey Victor Espinoza have hooked up for a win in at least a year. They were 0 for 3 going into the race.