Big Cap on March 7 looks wide open
I was surprised Well Armed could not hold on to win Sunday's Santa Antonio Handicap at Santa Anita after setting turtle-like spits of :25.26, :49.54 and 1:13.92. He should have been gone, but Magnum caught him in the last sixteenth and posted a $35.80 surprise.
Not sure if that result will change the connection's mind about going to Dubai for the $6 million World Cup, but if Well Armed does bypass the Santa Anita Handicap on March 7, that leaves Tiago, who needs a good pace to fire his best race; Champs Elysees (see Tiago); Magnum; Colonel John; and Rail Trip, who is truly the unknown commodity in all this.
San Pasqual and Strub Stakes winner Cowboy Cal deserves Big 'Cap favoritism off his recent form but Colonel John, who had to skip the Strub with a minor ailment, appears ready to go for the Big Cap and certainly figures to be a factor. We just don't know about Rail Trip, who is unbeaten in three races, winning by a combined 12 1/2 lengths, because he really hasn't been tested by stakes-caliber horses.
Let's put it this way -- if Rail Trip can beat the likes of Cowboy Cal, Colonel John, Tiago and others like them in his stakes debut, well, folks we'd have an up-and-coming handicap star on our hands. It would be a truly remarkable feat, as lightly raced as Rail Trip is.
Well Armed hasn't been the same since the Breeders Cup. He needs a break.
You might be right, but the scary thing here is that I think the horse's connections are still thinking Dubai and the $6 million World Cup on March 28. As we all know, that's a demanding trip for a horse that's in top form, let alone one that may need a break. It will be interesting to see if they still head to Dubai with Well Armed.
This is a race I wasn't impressed with at all. Magnum hadn't won a race since 2006 and now all of a sudden he jumps up and runs a big one, ringing the bell at $35.80? I can't argue with the fact that Well Armed may not be the same horse but I think a stronger case can be made for who can handle the synthetic surface and those that can't. I'll tell you what, there seems to be a lot of horses just running up and down, not going anywhere. This could also explain all the Pick 6 carryovers we are having lately.
And, of course, track management loves those pick six carryovers .... which lead to bigger pools and consequently more revenue. I don't think the tracks care one iota that a lot of horses are just running up and down and it's tougher to handicap, thus creating more pick six carryovers. In fact, I think they love it.