No respect for Mine That Bird
Hmmm, I guess I'm not the only one who thought Mine That's Bird's victory in this year's Kentucky Derby was a total fluke. I mean, it was a neat story and everyone roots for the underdog -- well most everyone, unless they didn't include him in their exactas -- but there was just no rhyme or reason for that horse winning. None whatsoever. Andrew Beyer of the Washington Post wrote that in more than 40 years of covering horse racing, Mine That Bird was one of the two most illogical winners of a big race that he'd ever witnessed.
So is it just me, is it just Andrew Beyer ... is it just many members of the media ... or does Mine That Bird have any sort of chance to win the Preakness and go on and do what Big Brown couldn't do last year -- win the Triple Crown? I know, I know. Stop laughing. Heck, even Larry Jones, trainer of Friesan Fire, says he wants to see Mine That Bird do it again before he dismisses the gelding as a total fluke.
Calvin Borel is going to become the first jockey in history to get off the Derby winner and ride a different horse in the Preakness. Other jockeys have gotten off Derby winners before, but they didn't ride a different horse in the Preakness trying to beat the horse that won the Derby two weeks earlier.
So I ask you ... can any of you remember a year when the Derby winner got such little respect heading into the Preakness? Giacomo in 2005 maybe?
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CHARISMATIC, TRAINED BY LUKAS, WON THE KENTUCKY DERBY, IN 1999, AND WAS LARGELY IGNORED BY THE BETTORS, WHEN HE WON THE PREEKNESS, TWO WEEKS LATER.
THIS YEAR, MINE THAT BIRD WAS ACTUALLY AN OVERLAY IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY, WHEN YOU CONSIDER ELEMENTS OF HIS PAST PERFORMANCE, BREEDING, TRAINER STATS, THE JOCKEY'S CREDENTIALS,AND THE COST OF THE HORSE.
THE HORSE COST AN IMPRESSIVE $400,000. HE WON HIS MAIDEN RACE, AND TWO OTHERS AT WOODBINE, ONE OF THE TOP SIX NORTH AMERICAN RACE TRACKS. HE WON SO IMPRESSIVELY AS A TWO YEAR OLD, THAT HE ENTERED THE BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE RACE. ALTHOUGH HE RAN POORLY, IN THAT RACE, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HORSES WHO WIN THE PRESTIGEOUS KENTUCKY DERBY, ARE THE THREE YEAR OLDS, WHO HAVE BEEN TRAINED AND CONDITIONED TO BE AT THEIR PEAK, ON THE FIRST SATURDAY IN THE MONTH OF MAY. MOST BREEDERS CUP WINNERS, DO NOT WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN RACES. MINE THAT BIRD'S J0CKEY, CALVIN BOREL WON WITH HIGHLY REGARDED CURLIN, JUST TWO YEARS AGO.
MINE THAT BIRD'S OVERALL HISTORY, DID NOT SUGGEST THAT HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE FAVORITE THIS YEAR, BUT HIS CREDENTIALS SUGGEST THAT HE WAS A BETTER CANDIDATE THAN MOST OF THE OTHER HORSES..
Robert, how do you explain the fact he couldn't even win at Sunland Park and his Beyer of 81 before the Derby was by far the lowest of any of the Derby starters? I mean, there are a lot of respected handicappers who think he was actually an underlay at 50-1, that he should have gone off at 70-1 or higher. Let's face it, he didn't beat much in Canada.
Mine That Bird ran a great race in the Derby, but a fluke race, the race of his life. He cannot and will not duplicate that. Any real handicapper who looked at his lines would never have bet that horse. Maybe even after seeing the race they wouldnt have bet him. Hes had his 15 minutes of fame. Hes done.
George,
Amen.
Mind that Bird was a total fluke KY Derby winner and no matter how you slice it not any professional handicapper in his right mind had the horse picked in the top three. But, that is why they run these races. It amazes me however that people can crawl out from under the woodwork after the fact and say how a winner "figured" after he has won but you'll never hear from these same people before hand. Robert, take off the 'caps lock!
Ing,
I know all about people crawling out from under the woodwork after the fact. I heard from quite a few of them, none of whom of course e-mailed with their picks or blogged here BEFORE the Derby.
Andrew Beyer has been so wrong for so long regarding his picks for major races, I don't know why anyone would look to him for "expertice."
Marc,
I don't think it's a case of people looking to him for "expertise" as much as it is using his speed ratings as a handicapping tool. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a Derby winner since he devised his ratings that had the worst Beyer figure in the race like Mine That Bird, let alone one as low as 81.