Rachel will make run for history today

Rachel Alexandra, the brilliant filly who crushed her Kentucky Oaks foes by a record 20 1/4 lengths on May 1, will try to become only the fifth filly and first since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win the Preakness Stakes today at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

Let's face it, she didn't beat much in the Oaks, but the way she did it was truly outstanding and she deserves a shot at the boys in the 134th Preakness. If she wins today, it will trump her Oaks victory, even if she wins by only a nose. It might be every-day stuff for fillies to beat males in Europe, but it doesn't happen often in the U.S., especially in races like the second leg of the Triple Crown.

D. Wayne Lukas, who saddled the filly Winning Colors when she won the Kentucky Derby in 1988 and then watched her finish third in the Preakness, told TVG that a filly needs four factors in her favor in order to beat the boys:

(1) She has to have dominated members of her own sex, which she obviosuly did in the Oaks.
(2) She needs to have tactical, stalking-type speed. Rachel has won three of her past five starts in gate-to-wire fashion, winning the other two after stalking the leader from second.
(3) She must go into the race off soft preps. How much softer can you get than a 20 1/4-length victory during which jockey Calvin Borel never asked her in the stretch.
(4) She must have the breeding to be able to go a distance, which Rachel obviously does. She's by Medaglia d'Oro, who finished second in the 2002 Belmont Stakes and is proving to be a very nice stallion.

Looking at the Preakness field, I see two colts -- Big Drama and Tone It Down -- who might try to challenge Rachel early on. I wouldn't be surprised if Big Drama takes the lead out of the gate and Rachel sits second, much like she did in the Oaks before her big move turning for home. Of course, if they let her have the lead, Rachel can certainly set a reasonable pace and just keep right on going. She set realistic splits in the Grade II Fantasy Stakes on April 5 at Oaklawn Park, running the first quarter in 23.2 seconds and the half in 47.2 before drawing off to win by 8 3/4 lengths. She did the same the race before, the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks on March 14, over a sloppy race track. So if it rains today -- and there is only a 30 percent chance, according to the latest forecast -- she should have no problems handling it.

I'm picking her to win today, not only because I think with her speed that she's going to be tough to beat, but because I think it would be great for the sport. Mine That Bird made the cover of Sports Illustrated the week after the Derby, and you can bet Rachel Alexandra will be one of the best-looking cover girls since Christie Brinkley adorned the magazine's covers in the '70s if she takes the Preakness. Racing needs that type of positive exposure these days.