Will a new shooter win Saturday’s Preakness?

So you think you like Astrology in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes? How about Concealed Identity or Flashpoint?

Well, before you start picking any of the non-Derby starters to win the 1 3/16-mile race, you might want to consider this tidbit of info — according to statistics provided by the Daily Racing Form, only three horses in the past 25 years that didn’t run in the Derby have shown up at Pimlico Race Course and won the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

That’s not a very good percentage, although two of the past five Preakness winners — Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and Bernardini in ’06 — didn’t run in the Derby.

Here’s the complete list of non-Derby starters since 1919 who won the Preakness Stakes:

2009 Rachel Alexandra
2006 Bernardini
2000 Red Bullet
1983 Deputed Testamony
1982 Aloma’s Ruler
1980 Codex
1972 Bee Bee Bee
1962 Greek Money
1951 Bold
1945 Polynesian
1942 Alsab
1934 High Quest
1929 Dr. Freeland
1928 Victorian
1925 Coventry
1924 Nellie Morse
1922 Pillory
1921 Broomspun
1920 Man o’ War

As of this morning, 10 of the 16 horses listed as possible for the Preakness did not run in the Derby, including the intriguing Mr. Commons, a colt trained by John Shirreffs who finished third in the Santa Anita Derby on April 9.

Astrology is another colt who deserves a look, seeing as though he was on most experts’ Derby rankings early in the year and will go off at a healthy price in the Preakness. The fact that Steve Asmussen is his trainer only adds to his resume.

Also, Concealed Identity is an interesting long shot after he won the Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on Derby Day. We know he likes the track and he won from off the pace, which may be an advantage in Saturday’s race.

Take a look at Astrology’s effort in the Jerome Handicap on April 23 at Aqueduct over a sloppy track. It was only his second race of the year and he might be sitting on a huge effort:

Or how about Mr. Commons’ effort in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top? He’s a lightly-raced colt who was rallying nicely along the rail in the Arcadia race and may be rounding into form:

So tell us what you think:

8 thoughts on “Will a new shooter win Saturday’s Preakness?

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