Let's do the math: Last year on opening Friday of Breeders' Cup XXV, 31,275 fans showed up on track during a day when Zenyatta was running in the Ladies' Classic. This year, on a day when there were no draws close to a Zenyatta, Oak Tree drew an on-track crowd of 37,651 -- a 20 percent hike -- for the Friday card.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. While Zenyatta was a big draw last year, she's probably an even bigger attraction this year, what with her winning streak even larger and her taking on boys for the first time in the Classic. If 51,321 showed up on the second day last year without the lure of a Zenyatta going for a 14th consecutive victory and trying to become the first female to win the Classic, how many more will show up today?

Let's say, for starters, Oak Tree and Breeders' Cup officials are fortunate enough to get a 20 percent spike in attendance today like they did Friday. Well, that's an on-track crowd of more than 60,000, and it's been 21 years -- when Alysheba won the 1988 Big 'Cap in front of 70,432 -- since Santa Aniat drew an on-track crowd of more than 60,000.

Breeders' Cup and Oak Tree officials had to be smiling all night because of Friday's on-track turnout. Let's face it, Oak Tree's numbers have been sagging badly the past few weeks and there was much uneasiness over what the numbers would be this weekend.

One high-ranking Santa Anita official told me on Breeders' Cup draw day that they'd be happy with a two-day total matching last year's 82,578. Well, to match last year's on-track attendance, Santa Anita has to draw only 44,927 today. After that crowd Friday, I'd be very surprised if at least 50,000 aren't on hand today, and I'm expecting a crowd of between 55,000 and 60,000.

That isn't close to Santa Anita's all-time record 85,527 that turned out when Lord At War won the 1985 Big 'Cap, but in this economy and the way the horse-racing industry has struggled the past few years, well, a two-day Breeders' Cup crowd of more than 92,651 would be mighty impressive.

Apparently, Rachel Alexandra's connections felt more compelled to face older males than race against Zenyatta this past summer. Jess Jackson and Co. had every opportunity to meet Zenyatta on dirt and in a 1 1/8-mile one-turn race, which would have been advantageous to the fabulous 3-year-old filly, but opted to go in the Woodward.

Zenyatta's trainer, John Shirreffs, says they nominated the 5-year-old daughter of Street Cry to the $600,000 Grade 1 Beldame States at Belmont Park, which was run on Oct. 3, in hopes that Rachel Alexandra would bypass the Woodward at Saratoga on Sept. 5 and instead wait and run against Zenyatta.

"That was the whole reason for nominating her to the Beldame," Shirreffs said. "It was probably the one realistic opportunity that we both had. Because up until then, obviously she was running in 3-year-old races and we were out here."

Zenyatta's veteran exercise rider, Steve Willard, who's worked with Alysheba, Afternoon Deelite, Dare And Go, Gate Dancer and Gentlemen during his career, says it's better for Rachel Alexandra that the two distaffers didn't meet.

"I know everybody brags on Rachel, but I believe we could run her down," he said.
"But the reason I know we could run Rachel down ... yeah, she runs fast for a mile, but look at the finish. They are average times. Very average. And (Zenyatta) has never failed to catch her target."

The heaviest favorite?

Mastercraftsman, at 6-5 in the $1 million Dirt Mile on Saturday. He's won seven of 11 lifetime and won by five lengths in his only try on a synthetic in his last start.

Other heavy favorites included Zensational (7-5) in the Sprint, Conduit (7-5) in the Turf, Goldikova (8-5) in the Mile, Ventura (8-5) in the Filly & Mare Sprint, and Lookin at Lucky in the Juvenile.

If you're looking to make a play in the new wager that challenges bettors to pick the jockey with the most wins during the Breeders' Cup's two days, Garrett Gomez is aboard two of the six heavy favorites.

"That was absolutely her most impressive race," Shirreffs said. "She just blew by them."

But Shirreffs was also greatly impressed by Zenyatta's effort in the 2008 Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park, a race in which the Brian Koriner-trained filly Silver Z opened an early 15-length lead before tiring.

"Everything was against her that day," Shirreffs said. "She washed out in the paddock, it was like 160 degrees on the race track and she was just really upset. (Then) that horse of Brian Koriner's, that gray horse, opened up 15 on the field, so everybody was sitting there watching, waiting to see what Zenyatta is going to do and nobody's going after Brian's horse.

"Before the five-eighths pole, Mike (Smith) had to start moving Zenyatta to go after Brian's horse, so that was like a five-eighths of a mile sustained run under really bad conditions for her because she got so upset in the paddock ... I thought that was a great race because she had everything go against her."

Yet she still won by a half-length, the second-slimmest margin of victory in her carreer behind only her victory by a head in this summer's Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar, and she's won seven more times since.

Shirreffs' favorite victory with Zenyatta was her 1 1/2-length score in last fall's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, when an adoring crowd welcomed her back with applause as Smith galloped her back to the winner's circle.

"It was the Breeders' Cup stage and everything," Shirreffs said. "It's when the East and West get together, and Cocoa Beach was coming in with a big reputation."

Shirreffs also liked the crowd reaction before this year's Hirsch at Del Mar.

"I thought it was absolutely spectacular, because in the paddock they were yelling and clapping and everything for her," he said. "And then going through the tunnel, you couldn't believe how it was in the tunnel, the yelling and screaming. It reminded me of the Derby. Everybody was so excited, and there was so much positive energy. It was great."

The world "great" and Zenyatta seem to go hand in hand.

Yet Bailey is not ready to throw co-owner Jess Jackson under the bus because of his controversial decision to skip the Breeders' Cup after two-time Horse of the Year Curlin finished fourth in last year's Classic over Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface.

"He did step out last year and he brought Curlin against the desires of (trainer) Steve Asmussen, who didn't think it was in his best interests at that time of the year to run him on the synthetic," Bailey said on an ESPN conference call today. "But he did it anyway, so I got to tip my hat for him.

"Jess did put up a lot of money to buy this filly (a reported $10 million) and immediately took her outside of her division and ran against the boys in the Preakness and eventually in the Haskell, which it's very unlikely the previous owners would have done. So he did contribute something to the game that I don't think we would have seen had he not purchased this filly.

"But yeah, I wish she was here, because there would be nothing better than to see her against Zenyatta or both of them against the males. I am disappointed, but I am glad that (Jackson) wants to bring her back next year. So I am looking at the positive on that."

The bet will likely include 14 entries -- 13 individual jockeys and a field bet that will include all other riders. If this bet had been available in 2008, Garret Gomez would have been the winning selection after the New Mexico native won a record four races over the two days, including three on the second day.

A tie will be treated like a dead heat, and wagering will be offered beginning Nov. 5 after riding assignments have been announced.

In addition, bettors will be able to wager on a Ladies' Classic-Classic daily double for the first time.

Hey, both these bets may flop, but I applaud the Breeders' Cup folks for at least trying something new. You never know if something is going to catch on unless you try it.

After all, there were horsemen who believed the Breeders' Cup would never catch on as a big-time event when it debuted at Hollywood Park in 1984, and look at it now.

I mean, c'mon, this is one race that would stand on its own merit even without the added bonus of Zenyatta, the unbeaten super mare who appears ready to tackle the boys for the first time in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 7 at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meet.

Just give us the other high-caliber stakes stars and this is a great betting race. Factor in the intrigue of Zenyatta trying to become the first distaffer to win the Classic, and this is high drama folks. And you thought last year's Ladies' Classic at Santa Anita rocked, wait until you hear the ovation for Zenyatta if Mike Smith gallops her back in front of the clubhouse after she's won the Classic.

And this is not even considering the two European stars (Mastercraftsman is likely to opt for the Dirt Mile) -- Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over -- who will try to duplicate the upset victory by Raven's Pass in last year's Classic when two-time Horse of the Year Curlin finished fourth.

"It's one of the great fields for the Classic, top to bottom," Breeders' Cup president Greg Avioli said on a Wednesday conference call set up to announce pre-entries for this year's event.

Amen to that.

* Trainer John Gosden, a former Southern California fixture who saddled two Breeders' Cup winners in 2008, including Raven's Pass in the Classic, has a 2-year-old filly who could give him his third victory in two years. Rainbow Quest, Europe's 2008 champion 2-year-old filly, jogged over Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface on Saturday and is being pointed toward the $2 million Filly and Mare Turf at 1 1/4 miles on Nov. 6.

* Former jockey Joe Steiner, who works horses regularly for trainer Bob Baffert, is extremely high on Baffert's latest 2-year-old talent, Lookin at Lucky, who is the favorite for the $2 million Juvenile on Nov. 7. Steiner was aboard the Unbridled's Song colt when he worked six furlongs in a bullet 1:11.80 last Wednesday at Santa Anita. "He went real easy," Steiner said of the colt who is 4-0. "I let him just kind of stretch his legs. That's all he did. He's doing things in a good way all the time. He's really got a terrific attitude." Lookin at Lucky worked again this morning, going six furlongs in 1:12.40. Baffert says Lookin at Lucky is the best 2-year-old he's had in at least the past five years.

* Five other Breeders' Cup hopefuls -- Always a Princess (Juvenile Fillies), Zensational (Sprint), Careless Jewel (Ladies' Classic), Colonel John (Classic) and Richard's Kid (Classic) also worked this morning. Always a Princess went five furlongs in 1:01.20, the speedy Zensational traveled four furlongs in 46.40, Careless Jewel went six furlongs in a bullet 1:11.20 for trainer Josie Carroll, Colonel John breezed five furlongs in 1:02.40, and Richard's Kid drilled six furlongs in 1:12.80.

Baffert is not happy with the way Indian Blessing, a 4-year-old Indian Charlie filly, has been handling Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface. She worked six furlongs over the track in 1:12.80 Sunday morning, prompting Baffert's decision.

"I think I'm going to pass," he told the Daily Racing Form. "She just doesn't like the track. What can you do? She looks good. It's frustrating. I'm not going to pre-enter because I don't want the temptation to change my mind."

Indian Blessing, who has won 10 of 16 starts for earnings of $2.9 million, won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Monmouth Park in 2007, leading to an Eclipse Award as top 2-year-old filly that year. She was voted top female sprinter in 2008.

Scheduled to be bred next year, Baffert said he did not know if Indian Blessing would race again in 2009.

Baffert has never been a supporter of artificial tracks, speaking out in support of the new trainers group called California Horsemen for Change recently. One of the new group's main beefs with management is synthetic race tracks.

Third in Breeders' Cup victories with seven, trailing only D. Wayne Lukas (18) and Shug McGaughey (nine), Baffert could still enjoy a big Breeders' Cup weekend despite Indian Blessing's defection. His top hopefuls appear to be Lookin at Lucky in the Juvenile, Always a Princess in the Juvenile fillies, Zensational in the Sprint, and Richard's Kid in the Classic.

Baffert could tie Lukas' record of winning the same Breeders' Cup race three years running if Zensational wins the Sprint. He saddled Midnight Lute for victories in the race the past two years.

Lukas saddled the winner of the Juvenile three consecutive years, beginning with Capote in 1986 and following up with Success Express and Is It True the following two years.

The winner of the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup is a top candidate to win an Eclipse Award as top 3-year-old male, and trainer Tim Ice believes he should receive Horse of the Year support if he wins the Classic.

Kent Desormeaux, Summer Bird's regular rider, flew in from New York for the workout and guided the colt through splits of 24.42 and 48.56. Summer Bird galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.03 and Desormeanx was pleased with the work.

"He enjoyed it and he galloped out super," he said.

"The work was great," Ice said. "This was exactly what we wanted. He looked super getting over the track and he's been getting over it very well ever since we got here.

"Kent had a ton of horse under him and he just let him work on his own, within himself. I'm super-happy with how he's trained here and how he's handled everything. We'll walk tomorrow and he'll go back to the track Tuesday morning."

Ice said Summer Bird will have one more work before the Breeders' Cup.

"He'll work five-eighths next Saturday," he said.

But Tim Ice, trainer of Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Summer Bird, believes his 3-year-old son of Birdstone should receive strong consideration for the award if he can win the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 7 at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meet.

Summer Bird, who lost by six lengths to Rachel Alexandra in the two 3-year-olds' only meeting in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on Aug. 2, arrived at Santa Anita this week to begin preparations for the Breeders' Cup and will work between the third and fourth races Sunday over the artificial Pro-Ride surface.

Kent Desormeaux, who won Oak Tree riding titles from 1990 through 1992 and has been aboard Summer Bird for the Haskell and the colt's three big victories, will fly in from Keeneland Race Track in Lexington, Ky. for the workout.

"Even when I ran him in the Haskell, Kent came in once before the race to work him," Ice said. "Basically, I just want Kent to get a feel for him over the track. Not that Kent doesn't know the track, but I want him and the horse to be in sync when they're over it together. It's always a plus, I think, to have the rider work him over the track."

One thing is for certain -- Summer Bird will clinch top 3-year-old male honors, if he hasn't already, with a victory in the Classic.

In 2007, the Breeders' Cup reached an agreement with Hong Kong, and on Thursday they took another major international step by agreeing to a deal with Great Britain-based Betfair, which adds a potential 3 million customers that are now allowed to participate in a common Breeders' Cup mutuel pool.

"This is a very big deal for us in the expanding internationalization of the Breeders' Cup," said Breeders' Cup official Jim Gluckson in an e-mail.

The Breeders' Cup will receive a percentage of the revenue from exchange bets placed by Betfair customers. Betfair will also video stream the Breeders' Cup, scheduled Nov. 6-7 at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meet.

In exchange betting, customers lay odds and others place bets on those odds. Betfair takes a percentage of the handle before the payoffs.

Last year, international handle for the Breeders' Cup was $17.6 million.

Let's face it, the Breeders' Cup DEFINITELY does now want a Freeway Series between the Dodgers and Angels, and they'd really prefer if neither team was in the World Series.

Think about it for a minute -- there's never been a Freeway Series, and if it did occur, the front pages of every sports section in Southern California would be full of World Series stories, relegating pre-Breeders' Cup coverage to second-tier status.

Even if only one of the two teams makes it, Games 4, 5, 6 and 7 are scheduled to be played the week leading up to Breeders' Cup XXVI, with Games 6 and 7 -- if necessary -- slated the same days as post-position draw day and Breeders' Cup eve.

Nope, there are probably no bigger anti-Dodgers and Angels fans right now than the folks who run the Breeders' Cup.

* This will be the final Breeders' Cup run over a synthetic race track. The backlash Breeders' Cup officials have felt over holding the event at Santa Anita and its synthetic Pro-Ride surface for an unprecedented second consecutive year -- not to mention the number of horsemen who continue to jump off the artificial surface bandwagon by the day -- are too strong for event organizers to ignore.

* This will also be the final year where the Breeders' Cup will include 14 races. In these tough economic times when horse racing numbers -- both in attendance and betting handle -- are in decline, officials just can't afford to continue to offer as many races. Look for the less-popular races like the Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf and/or Juvenile Fillies Turf to perhaps fall by the wayside. The Marathon may survive only because it has a purse of only $500,000.

* This could also be the final year of the two-day format, although this is more up in the air than the two aforementioned items.

I had an interview with Breeders' Cup president Greg Avioli recently and he said a decision on the two-day setup, the number of races and any potential purse cuts will be coming soon.

"What we've always said internally and publicly is that we're going to evaluate the two-day format and the 14-race program card following this year," Avioli said. "This will be the third year that we've had a two-day format and the second year that we will have had 14 championship races. Some of the criteria that we're going to use in evaluating it are going to be the graded stakes races, the graded quality, it's going to be the level of participation that we have in these races from the top horses in the world.

"Each race in the world gets a ranking from the International Federation of Horse Racing Authority, and last year for example the Classic was the No. 1 race in the entire world. And we had a handful of other races in the top 10 in the world. So we want to make sure the races that we're putting on are quality races with quality fields. We're also going to take a look at the total amount of wagering that we receive on these races because that's relevant to our bottom line.

"Last year was the first time we had a two-day format with a full Breeders' Cup card on Friday and I don't think this gets noted enough, but we set a North American record of over fifty million dollars for the most money ever wagered on a weekday in North America on horse racing. So from our one-year experience, the two-day format and the 14-race card worked very well, but we're going to take a wait-and-see attitude and see how it goes this year and then make any changes for next year that need to be made following that evaluation.

"We had approximately 30,000 people in New Jersey at Monmouth (Park) for the first Breeders' Cup Friday (2007), and that was in an absolute torrential downpour. What we have to constantly remind people is that this is something new. This is only the second year of this and if this is going to succeed, which I believe it will, it's going to take three, five, 10 years for it to reach its full potential."