Inside Horse Racing

It’s tough to remember a year when there weren’t at least two or three horses that appeared to be solid picks in the Kentucky Derby. This year it’s a total crapshoot, with virtually all prospective starters having a question mark or two.

Uncle Mo? In the Wood, he looked like a horse that wanted no part of the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance. Was it the G1 tract infection that he was diagnosed with this week or his pedigree? There’s a good chance he might not even be fit or healthy enough to run in the Derby. We’ll see.

The Factor? At one point earlier this year, trainer Bob Baffert thought about keeping the speedball in one-turn races. But he’s developed to the point where he can now go two turns and win. Whether he can win Saturday’s Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles or negotiate the Derby distance is still a question.

Our latest 2011 Kentucky Derby rankings:

1. Dialed In — Looked good closing to win the Florida Derby over speed-favoring surface
2. Santiva — Like Super Saver, he won Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill as a juvenile
3. The Factor — We’ll know more after Saturday’s Arkansas Derby
4. Uncle Mo — Don’t give up on him yet; Secretariat also finished third in the Wood
5. Jaycito — Derby distance and long stretch might be this guy’s cup of tea
6. Midnight Interlude — Don’t dismiss improving colt, especially when he’s trained by Baffert
7. Nehro — Louisiana Derby runner-up will get tested in Arkansas Derby
8. Toby’s Corner — Won Wood while rallying against a slow pace; intriguing
9. Astrology — Only one Derby prep works against him
10. Pants On Fire — Won Louisiana Derby, but what did he beat?

Here is some great news, courtesy of the Santa Anita publicity folks. I think John Shear deserves to be saluted by Santa Anita and the whole racing industry very soon, and I think he will be:

ARCADIA — John Shear, Santa Anita’s 90-year-old Paddock Guard who was gravely injured while protecting a 6-year-old girl from a runaway horse on March 12, will be released from Huntington Memorial Hospital on Saturday, according to his son, Michael.

Santa Anita’s winter/spring meet comes to a close this Sunday. Live racing will return to Santa Anita on Sept. 29.

I’ve bashed the California Horse Racing Board and the Thoroughbred Owners of California plenty of times, but when they do something that’s positive for the industry, they deserve kudos.

Santa Anita is suffering through a terrible meet handle-wise, and it’s due partly to the increase in takeout for exotic bets that went into effect this year.

Something had to be done, and although it should have been done earlier, the new early low-takeout pick five during the upcoming Hollywood Park meet is a step in the right direction.

Here’s hoping the CHRB and TOC continue to make similar moves for the bettors rather than alienating them with head-scratching decisions.

Here’s the press release Hollywood Park revealed earlier today:

REDUCED TAKEOUT PICK 5 ADDED TO WAGERING MENU
INGLEWOOD — After receiving approval from the California Horse Racing Board and the Thoroughbred Owners of California, Hollywood Park will offer a reduced takeout Pick 5 on its wagering menu when the Spring/Summer meet begins Thursday, April 21.

Formerly available on the first four races, the early Pick 4 will now cover races 2-5. The late Pick 4 remains on the final four races.

Raise your hand if you have a strong opinion on who will win the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 7.

I sure don’t.

There were a lot of skeptics concerning prohibitive Derby favorite Uncle Mo even before he faded in the stretch at Aqueduct on Saturday and finished third in the Wood Memorial. Now they’re coming out of the woodwork, wondering how there could have been such a fuss made over an Indian Charlie colt whose bloodlines cast a huge shadow over his ability to negotiate the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

At this point, if you like a horse, I wouldn’t let anyone talk you off it. This Derby, as we prepare to watch The Factor run in the Arkansas Derby and Santiva take part in the Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday, appears as wide open as any in recent memory.

But Bob Baffert, who has three legitimate Derby contenders in surprise Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, The Factor and Jaycito, cautions those who are ready to jump off the Uncle Mo bandwagon.

“Secretariat lost before the Kentucky Derby,” Baffert said Saturday after his Midnight Interlude rallied in the stretch to post a 13-1 upset in the 74th running of the Santa Anita Derby. “I still think (Uncle Mo’s) a very good horse and he’ll bounce back.”

Baffert will find out more about The Factor on Saturday when he contests 1 1/8 miles for the first time.

“If he runs well, we’ll send him on (to Churchill Downs),” he said. “If he doesn’t run well, we’ll bring him home.”

Midnight Interlude’s owner Arnold Zetcher wasn’t shocked by his colt’s victory despite the fact it was Baffert’s first Santa Anita Derby win with a horse that had just broken his maiden. Baffert’s won a record six Santa Anita Derbies.

“We thought we had a good shot,” Zetcher said. “He’d been training unbelievable, and he’d just won by nine in a race where he could have won by 14.”

At this stage, nothing would surprise me with regard to the Run for the Roses.

Trainer Peter Miller said last week that his talented 3-year-old, Comma to the Top, would get a break following Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby even if the gelding won the race by 10 lengths.

But Sunday, less than 24 hours after Comma to the Top lost by a head to the onrushing Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby, Miller said he and the gelding’s owners will huddle and decide whether to run in the Kentucky Derby. He said a final decision may not be made until the beginning of Derby week.

Enter the following web address in your browser for the entire Daily Racing Form story by Steve Andersen:

http://www.drf.com/news/comma-top-back-consideration-kentucky-derby

Three of the best distaffers in the country are set to line up against each other in Friday’s $500,000 Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park.

Havre de Grace, Switch and Blind Luck are all expected to go postward in the Grade I race, which is run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. Life At Ten was assigned co-high weight of 119 pounds for the race, along with Havre de Grace and Switch, but the Todd Pletcher trainee is not expected to run.

Of course, Zenyatta won the Apple Blossom two of the past three years. Last year’s running was supposed to pit the past two Horses of the Year, Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, until the latter was pulled out of the race after she lost her comeback in Louisiana.

I liked Premier Pegasus to win today’s Grade I Santa Anita Derby, but his defection because of a hairline fracture in the cannon bone of his left foreleg means this race is wide open.

Down to nine runners from the original field of 11 after Jaycito’s scratch Friday, I think five horses could find the winner’s circle today:

Mr. Commons — John Shirreffs wouldn’t have him in here if he didn’t think he had a shot.
Silver Medallion — Could be one of best 3-year-olds in the country if he takes to the dirt.
Comma to the Top — Is this guy regressing after five straight wins? We’ll see.
Anthony’s Cross — Shouldn’t be far off the lead and gets services of Joel Rosario.
Bench Points — Might be better in his second try around two turns.

I’m going to go with Mr. Commons in a mild surprise and key him top and bottom with the other four.

I like Caracortado in the Arcadia Stakes. He appears to have turned into one of the best grass horses in the country.

The Factor proved he can win going two turns Saturday, rolling to an impressive victory in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The next question is whether he can win going two turns while being pressured a bit more. If he goes in the Kentucky Derby, odds are he’s not going to have things his own way on the front end.

Next up for the Bob Baffert-trained colt will be the Santa Anita Derby on April 9 or the Arkansas Derby on April 16. Wherever he races next, it’s going to be interesting to see how The Factor fares. Right now, he’s taken the step from sprinter to viable Derby contender. Whether he can carry his amazing speed 1 1/4 miles is anyone’s guess, but last time I looked none of the contenders for the Run for the Roses had gone that far yet.

Our updated ratings for the 137th Kentucky Derby, which will be run May 7:

1. Uncle Mo — Todd Pletcher colt hasn’t done a thing wrong yet
2. Santiva — Looking at Blue Grass Stakes on April 16 as final Derby prep
3. To Honor And Serve — Bill Mott-trained colt will go next in Florida Derby on April 3
4. Stay Thirsty — Pletcher targeting talented colt for Florida or Arkansas Derby
5. Premier Pegasus — San Felipe score stamped him as legit Santa Anita Derby favorite on April 9
6. Jaycito — Needs to run big in Santa Anita Derby to warrant a look on May 7
7. The Factor — One of the most talented colts in America
8. Soldat — Will tune up for Derby with a start in the Florida Derby
9. Brethren — Disappointed badly in Tampa Bay Derby; needs to rebound in Arkansas Derby
10. Dialed In — Nick Zito’s best shot at third Derby victory; targeted for Florida Derby

The Santa Anita publicity office released an updated report on the condition of paddock guard John Shear this morning. Shear heroically saved a young girl from possible injuries last weekend when a horse broke free from his handler:

Santa Anita paddock guard John Shear, a Santa Anita employee for nearly half a century, continues to make progress after he suffered multiple injuries following an act of heroism at Santa Anita on March 13.

“I’m completely blown away and humbled by the response from fans at the track and from those on all the social media sites,” Shear’s 44-year-old son, Mike, told the Santa Anita Publicity Department earlier. “It’s amazing how many people who don’t even know my dad have expressed their well wishes.”

Here’s a press release the Santa Anita publicity department released Sunday on the condition of 90-year-old paddock guard John Shear, who put his own life in jeopardy Saturday in an effort to save a young girl from potential injuries:

ARCADIA — The condition of injured 90-year-old paddock guard John Shear has improved “one hundred eighty degrees” over what it was Saturday night at Huntington Memorial Hospital according to a family member.

John Shear has been employed at Santa Anita Park since Dec. 23, 1961.