the name says it all

We do not have tons of cap space. This year we had tons of cap space. Next year, the Kopitar contract and the Greene contract will kick in, Williams gets paid more than POS, we will likely sign JJ for around $3MM, and Purcell to a slight raise. Letting Calder, Gauthier and Armstrong go, buying out Preissing, we will have a cap hit of $44.688MM with four roster spots to fill (2 forwards and 2 defensemen). Assume that one of the D is a prospect (one of Hickey or Voynov, for example, or maybe Drewiske). If it’s Drewiske, he would be a cap hit of .525. If it’s Hickey, assume a Doughty-minus contract, cap hit plus bonus cushion of around $2.5MM (approx.). If it’s Voynov, he gets probably somewhere around .700, to pull a pretty reasonable number out of the air. I would say that DL has to leave room for Hickey to make the team in the fall. He can’t go into camp with a cap figure such that if Hickey makes it he has to trade someone away to stay under the cap. So I think we have to plug in the Hickey number. For the other D, I would assume it’s either a prospect or a cheap UFA (like SOD was this year). I’m going to guess it’s a UFA at what SOD got last year: $1.25MM. So that’s an additional $3.75MM. But could be done with Voynov and Drewiske (no UFA veteran, no Hickey) for 1.25ish (a savings of $2.5MM).

Total is now at $48.43MM. And we have two forwards to sign. More than two if we’re getting rid of Zeiler or Ivanans. Since both those guys are affordable, I’m going to assume that they either stick around (please, no) or are replaced by like-priced players (e.g. Clune, Cliche). So, for the sake of cap estimates, we’ll leave them alone. As for the two spots to fill, I’m going to say one goes to a prospect. I pick Trevor Lewis. Could be Boyle. Doesn’t matter. The cap hit would be .855 for Lewis. Will Boyle re-sign and get a raise? He’s at .835 now. I don’t see him getting more than $1MM. So let’s be conservative, and call it .855 (the Lewis figure).

Now we’re up to $49.293MM. And we have one forward left to sign.

If the last spot is a prospect, too, then the cap hit will be at almost exactly $50MM.

But if it’s a UFA? Hossa? How much? $8MM? Okay, now we’re over the cap by about a half-million. Maybe you get Hossa for a little less than 8MM (doubt it though), or maybe we go with a cheaper defense (no Hickey, no UFA d, etc.). Or maybe we shed some salary somewhere else. But where? Who are you going to deal? Handzus, Frolov, for picks? For a cheaper forward and a prospect? That could happen, I guess. Maybe Johnson has to take less than $3MM, maybe $2.75MM.

The point is, “tons of cap space” quickly becomes “over the cap” with just one signing. Everyone who is saying let’s sign Bouwmeester or whatever, keep that in mind. Even the Kings, with a relatively low cap figure compared to everyone else, can’t afford more than one big guy.

Quisp,

Jack Johnson has done nothing to warrant a raise. The ball is in Dean Lombardi’s court and if there’s anything to go by, we should expect a lowball offer. If Jack doesn’t like it, his *** could be on the way out.
Same goes for Teddy Purcell. He hasn’t even earned his current contract. Why should Dean give him a raise?

There’s definitely room to sign one big UFA for next season. Out of Jay Bouwmeester, Marian Hossa and Marian Gaborik, JayBo is the one you go for since he’s an elite defenseman and makes the entire team better, while a Gaborik only strengthens the 1st line.

Or we could go cheaper and sign a guy like Comrie, Zednik, Sykora, Cole, Weight, or Recchi etc.

Or we could get rid of Terry Murray and bring in a coach that likes a tiny bit of offense.

Dear Quisp,

you are so out of touch it’s scary…You should sit down with DL so he can show you the way….jeezz…your are so …entertaining.

Don’t forget Frolov’s cap space. I doubt that he’d stick around the way he’s being treated. I wouldn’t.

Richardson gives up a turnover and it goes right in the net and he doesn’t miss a shift. TM would have sat Frolov for that.

Williams is a turnover machine too and he’s rewarded by playing on the first line.

Go figure.

Regarding the loss to Nashville…
Wasn’t the head ref the same one who screwed us in Montreal???

Just sayin’, that penalty on Kopitar was weak! It cost us the game. Guess who called it…

Stephane Auger….

Somebody find out what this guy’s problem is and get him therapy…He’s cost us 3 POINTS THIS SEASON!!!

Why would bouwmeester sign with the Kings? He didn’t resign in Florida, yet, and has never played in the playoffs, NHL or in the WHL. Every team would love to sign him, offer a huge contract and in the end it will be where he wants to play with a chance to win.

We all keep harping on the players, but personally I’m looking behind the bench, Hapo is fine as is TM but the guy who is running the PP is out to lunch, the players only go with what they’ve been set up to do and all year it’s been pitiful. Yes there are some players who need to be moved, but also an assistant coach or two. Quisp, all you talked about was one side of the sheet, I suspect that there will be movement of a couple of big names on this club and possibly a prospect or rookie from this season so it’s not all money.

Al – I agree that there may well be some additional movement. Frankly, we are loaded with young talent / prospects in our “own end” so there has to be some balance between maintaining depth and cashing in on that value while we can.

JJ might not be the second coming of Lidstrom, but he’s clearly a damn good player who’s only going to improve. Yes, he needs to work on his angles and positioning. By contrast, how many years did we grossly overpay number 4 just because he occasionally laid out a hard check and would put up decent offensive stats some seasons? Btw, if I’m not mistaken, Blake is the only Norris winner to have a negative +/-.

After re-tooling our D so effectively via the draft and the acquisition of Quincy, why spend UFA money on another defenceman? With a cap it makes no sense to use it for anything other than our most pressing need, which is CLEARLY offense.

I’m a very patient person but I think we need an immediate impact player, something that we aren’t getting in the draft. It’s possible that a Kane or Duchenne (both’ll probably gone by the time we draft), Schenn, Schroder or the Swede (MPS) might light things up, but it’s HIGHLY unlikely in year one and this franchise can’t just sit and wait for another crop of draftees to develop. Our franchise is full of young talent… so bringing in one scorer is hardly the same thing as going “Glen Sather.”

I do know that I’m not going to shell out as much money for tickets next year unless they bring someone in.

Big A said:
After re-tooling our D so effectively via the draft and the acquisition of Quincy, why spend UFA money on another defenceman?

I’m a very patient person but I think we need an immediate impact player, something that we aren’t getting in the draft.

Yup. I couldn’t agree more. I think you’re spot on Big A. I also agree with everyone that next year something really needs to move forward. I certainly hope so. I have to confess though, I’ve seen bits and pieces of other teams. St. L. (Oshie looks amazing and Eric Johnson missed the whole season), CBJ getting stronger and stronger, who knows what’ll happen w Dallas and Edm next year. So it’s gonna take some major doing for the Kings to get into the post season.

I personally have no answers. On these blogs there are loads of comments about this player and that player…. of course the players make a difference (the personnel) but they Have to change some of these repeating patterns that have gone on for a long time. Inopportune penalties (clearly there are good ones and bad ones and the Kings have taken too many unnecessary and poorly timed ones -see last night in OT and other games where they have a lead and take a penalty that gives the momentum to the opposition) and poor decision making. Last night they have a 1-0 lead on the road, try to get too fancy getting the puck out and it’s in their net. 1-1 and they never had control of the game after that. TM was saying how great it is that they keep having these 3rd period comebacks. Is that putting a positive spin on it? Great to be resilient, and they are, but it hasn’t for the most part been winning them games, with maybe 3 or 4 exceptions this season. Maybe I’m just seeing the glass as half empty, but I think there is some reality in what I’m saying. In the West seems like everyone else keeps improving too, so I just don’t know how easy of a jump this is gonna be. If the Kings are to get into the post season they have to jump over some of the teams currently in front of them! Who will those teams be? Will the maturation of the players make the difference?

Okay, you’re probably right that I am over-estimating the Johnson contract. Let’s call it $2MM then. Adjust all numbers downward accordingly. The Purcell raise I’m talking about would be nominal, i.e. $100-200K. So we’re talking about a $49MM cap hit if the last forward is a prospect with a prospect contract.

Al/Big A — of course you’re right about “other movement.” It’s somewhere between probable and very likely that there will be some trades. But I was only addressing the cap situation, not what future trades will do to the cap (since there’s no way to know in advance).

Also, it’s not hard to make a list of the players we wouldn’t be surprised to see traded and the players who appear to be untouchable (at this point). I’ll give it a try, and you guys can edit/correct/adjust:

Will not be traded: Kopitar, Brown, Doughty.

Will not be traded but maybe they could be (as part of something big, I guess): Quincey, Simmonds, Greene, Stoll, Moller, Quick.

Probably won’t be traded, because of big contract and NTC: Handzus.

Probably won’t be traded, because what’s the point, he just signed here and he’s got a specific purpose: SOD.

Fair game: Frolov, Johnson, Boyle, Purcell, Richardson, Harrold, Zeiler, Ivanans, Ersberg.

The thing about trading prospects and kids is, it doesn’t affect the cap except upwardly, because they’re already affordable. The only players who will save you any money if you trade them (in a salary dump) would be Frolov, Johnson (since you would avoid having to sign him), Greene, Stoll and Handzus.

You could (if possible) swing a trade for Kovalchuk, but since you wouldn’t be able to give equal salary back (Frolov plus Johnson = $5MM next year, more the year after), you would still be pushing the cap figure into the low 50s, and you would then not have room for a Hossa signing (or whoever, pick your favorite UFA).

A lot depends on the internal cap AEG gives to DL for next season, and none of us knows what that will be. Based on their comments and DL’s comments about adding a piece to reward the kids (or whatever was said), I imagine the budget is higher than it was. But the Kings are already at $49MM for next year. It’s a big question whether AEG is willing to pay more than that.

Are you guys blind? How can you all want to get rid of Johnson? Look at his numbers this year and last year. He has 5 goals and 4 assists this year and missed a huge part of the season, playing only 34 games, right? Last year he put up 3 goals and 8 assists in 74 games. He’s improving and he’ll keep improving He needs to get used to playing with the new D corps and the new coach, and the more time he spends with doughty, o’donnell, greene and quincey, the better of a player he’ll become. He’s a stay home defenseman, so don’t expect his numbers to go up, but he’s staying in LA, no doubt. I can’t see Jacko getting traded, I just can’t, but then again I couldn’t see O’Sullivan leaving LA.

Quisp, nice breakdown brother. Trevor Lewis will be in LA next year, and so will either gaborik, hossa or havlat. Also, if we go after Kovalchuk, I’d expect us to include Frolov, Boyle and whoever we draft in the first rounder..

It’s somewhat complicated, but this is how I look at it…

If DL thinks that we can sign either Gaborik, Hossa or Havlat then he’ll just go ahead and draft an offensive player like Jordan Schroeder or Nazem Kadri. Now this is where it gets complicated.. If DL decides “ok, you know what? I don’t think any of the big UFA will sign in LA, I say we go after Kovalchuk..”, then he’ll call Don Wadell and offer him a package for Kovalchuk.. The package will include the player we pick in the first rounder, but it won’t be schroeder or kadri, it’ll be a defenseman like Cowen.

ATL gets:
Frolov
Boyle
Jared Cowen

LA gets:
Kovalchuk

Do you guys understand? It’s really either or.. Does DL want Gaborik or Hossa or Havlat? Or does he want to trade for Kovalchuk? Either way, We’re getting one of these guys, it’s a guarantee. We’ve had too many games this season where we were shutout, and that’s just unacceptable..

Kovalchuk-Kopitar-Williams
Purcell-Moller-Brown
Simmonds-Stoll-Lewis
Ivanans-Handzus-Richardson

Doughty-Johnson
Quincey-Greene
O’Donnell-Hickey/Voynov
Harrold

Quick
Ersberg

Now, if we decide to just sign a UFA like Hossa, Havlat or Gaborik, this would be the lineup

Frolov-Kopitar-Gaborik/Hossa/Havlat
Brown-Moller-Williams
Simmonds-Stoll-Purcell
Ivanans-Handzus-Lewis
Richardson-Harrold

Doughty-Johnson
Quincey-Greene
O’Donnell-Hickey/Voynov
Harrold

Quick
Ersberg

Solid lineups

LBlocal/AK47:

I’ll just add one wrinkle. AEG. The trade-up for Tavares/Hedman option would be more likely if AEG put an internal cap on DL that’s too low for him to go after Hossa/Kovalchuk etc.. If if if if if AEG will let him spend, I think DL will go for the proven topline sniper over the #1 prospect. But who knows. The worse situation would be for AEG to allow a little more spending, but not enough to get what we need, so we’re stuck between the Tavares/Hedman trade-up option and the Hossa/Kovi option, and we end up with another really great second line player, of which frankly we have too many already.

Quisp:

Does Frolov stay?
Does JMFJ stay?

Remember what happened to Marcel Dionne when he humbly asked the Kings organization for a “fair-value” contract? {Nobody is untouchable}.

It’s not a good feeling as a lifetime Kings fan, knowing that your beloved team traded away hockey icons like Marcel Dionne… and Wayne Gretzky.

As far as signing a sniper. 1. Kings already have a 7M dollar player signed for 6 years (and he’s only 21!). 2. Hossa has publicly stated that he wants to stay a Wing; resigned to accept less $$$ for a longer term deal. 3. Gaborik is a great talent, but brittle. Plus, the Kings haven’t had much recent luck with Czech/Slovak players. Pass. 4. Kovi and Havlat are legitimate, but at what cost? 5. Spezza – Ek loves him in LA. (ENOUGH SAID – PASS)

With DL’s & TM’s ‘east coast/crash the net’ flyer style, I see them looking at the Mule in his prime at a less inflated rate. At 6’3″ 230, he’s a beast in front of the net. Not a true number one. But on a second line of lets say Brown Boyle Franzen or Brown Stoll Franzen.

What Tavares and Hedman did in the WJC was awesome. They proved to everyone that knows hockey.. They are both the real deal. In 08 Tavares was projected equal to or higher that Stamkos in many scouts eyes. At 6’7″ 225, Hedman dominates the game much like a Chara or a young Pronger used to.

BTW.. ISN’T RICH OUT OF PURGATORY TODAY??? YIPPIE!!

GO KINGS! GO RICH HAMMOND!

LBlocal –

I agree with every single thing you just said, except the Hossa part. He has agreed to take less, but even the discount to around $6MM doesn’t add up for Detroit. Both sides have said they want to work out a deal, but Holland has also said it may not work out and he may not want it to, since it would mean dismantling the depth of the team. Holland absolutely has to make some painful choices.

There was an article in the Edmonton paper today in which he said the following incredibly pessimisitic thing:

The only press conferences Ill be having this summer are to tell people which players are leaving, said Holland, who could lose Mikael Samuelsson and Tomas Kopecky to unrestricted free agent offers. Im not into woe is me, though. Whos going to feel sorry for the Detroit Red Wings? Weve had a great run we want to keep it going so were always a playoff team.

I’m just going to cut-and-paste what I said about this earlier: One option Detroit has is to sign Hossa forI dont knowsay $5MM (cap hit), which is about a million less than the pay cut everything thinks hes going to get. But lets call it $5MM. Maybe Holland does some fancy footwork and front loads the contract so the cap hit is less than the salary. That would leave just under $3MM for six forwards. Which is under $500K per guy. Which means they would have to let go not only of Franzen, but Samuelsson, Hudler and Kopecky and replace them with dirt cheap prospects at, well, league minimum salary. And this would put them exactly at the cap, which give Holland no wiggle room at all. I think Hossa is going to cost more than a $5MM cap hit, but since the Zetterberg hit is $6MM, Im going to say its possible. I just dont think even at that price they can avoid dismantling the team. So, basically, that option sucks.

I really think Hossa will walk.

Yes, I know. But then:

Holland met with Hossas agent, Ritch Winter, over the weekend. Hossa signed a one-year, $7.45 million deal last July but realizes he must take less (perhaps in the neighborhood of $6 million per season) to stay. If were not able to find a way, you know what, we had a great player come here for one year, Holland said. Franzens price tag is expected to be in the $4 million-a-year range. While Holland said there is a chance he can sign both, he knows he would have to unload a few other players in the process. The decision we got to make is, do we want to be top-heavy and not have any depth? Holland said. Thats why Im not rushing into any (moves).

Underline: the “less” that Hossa is willing to take is thought to be in the neighborhood of $6MM, and I don’t see how they can make the numbers add up even at $5MM.

When Holland refers to unloading a “few” other players in order to make the Hossa thing work, he’s talking about, Franzen, Samuelsson, Hudler, Kopecky AND ALSO trading someone who’s signed (e.g. Cleary, Stuart) in a salary dump.

Otherwise, it just doesn’t matter what Hossa says. The numbers are the numbers are the numbers. And the cap is going to go DOWN after next season.

Do you think Holland is really going to twist himself into a pretzel and gut the depth of the team in order to sign a guy who wasn’t even on the team a year ago, who has been responsible for, so far, exactly zero cups?

As far as the Free Press writer goes, sure Hossa would be “the better choice” over Franzen if they were commanding equal salaries. If Hossa is willing to sign for $4MM, then Holland should do that. So far, nobody thinks that’s what Hossa means when he says “less.”

The guy was turning down nine million from EDM last summer.

You guys are a bit off on the cap #’s we have 20 players under contract next season already at just under 40mm, of 43.2mm with bonus included.

http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=LAK

LBlocal, re Moulson:

I forgot to mention, he’s UFA (VI) this summer, unless he’s re-signed.

Don’t forget Frolov’s cap space. I doubt that he’d stick around the way he’s being treated. I wouldn’t.

Richardson gives up a turnover and it goes right in the net and he doesn’t miss a shift. TM would have sat Frolov for that.

Williams is a turnover machine too and he’s rewarded by playing on the first line.

Go figure.

^^
Thanks, you beat me to it.

Guy is coming off an injury, playing with new linemates, and you’re burying him?

And btw, POS’s lack of production is being questioned by the media in Edmonton.

Players have different roles, expectations… the coach is working on improving various aspects of their games. For a fan to get bitter due to perceived differences in treatment by a coach towards players is usually short-sighted. No boss is going to treat everybody exactly the same… even in the army, and there are usually damn good reasons for that.

Wrt Hossa… the options are definitely limited as to where he’ll end up & I think Holland is going to roll the dice and go with Franzen. I personally doubt Hossa will end up in LA, but I’d sure rather see him than Gaborik. Either way, it’s certainly not going to “bring us the Cup” but if we had a pure scorer in the lineup I’d expect LA to at least start making the playoffs on an annual basis.

If I’m Don Waddell in Atlanta, I’d want a HECK of a lot more than Frolov, Boyle and the Kings #1 pick. Kovalchuck is their franchise player, so if he’s going to trade anything, he’s going to want A LOT more than that. He knows Thrashers fans would never return if he didn’t get a good return on trading the only player the fans can identify with.

And if I’m running the Islanders, I would ask for the Kings #1, my pick of either Drew Doughty or Jack Johnson, and my pick of either Frolov, Moller, Simmonds or Bernier. For what John Tavares is supposed to be, I wouldn’t give up that #1 pick for anything I didn’t know was a sure thing in return to make my team better. But yeah, I’d have to insist that either Doughty or Johnson be part of the package.

I’m just saying…

I’ll be honest, I didn’t read all of these posts, but I read the bulk of what’s being said here. All of these cap figures and us not having the space is based on us NOT trading any players. I highly doubt none of our guys get traded to aquire some key pieces. After seeing Sully traded, you guys should feel comfortable knowing NO player is safe from being traded for the right price/piece.

It is rumored DL will go after a UFA and a trade. I’m going out on a limb and saying the UFA will be the lesser of the two more valuable components to the team(monetarily speaking). This will most likely be the guy that “wants to be here”. I.e. Gabs.

The other will most likely be a hefty trade from our perspective. This is where we’ll free up considerable cap space to land this type of player. Dean knows we need to free up some room, so it’ll be something like Fro, Zus, a prospect, and a pick(or even more).

Ak-

I highly doubt Kovy is the target. I don’t see Kovy going anywhere until the deadline next year. Don’t look now, but there’s talk about Lecavalier possibly coming to town. How much of that is pure speculation and most likely B.S.? I’d say a pretty high percentage of it, but I’m sure there’s been conversations about it(not just fan sites). Another reason his name is coming up is because of our need, and the possibility of us having the cap space(which we could do).

Vinnie? That would be…uh…interesting, I guess. I would just say that he’s a number one center, and he’s a passer. He’s not what we need really. We’re deep up the middle; we have cast our lot with Kopitar, and secondarily Handzus, Stoll, Moller and Boyle down the middle. Of course it would be nice to have Vinne as number one, Kopitar #2, Stoll and Handzus as 3, 4 — move Moller to the wing for now, trade Boyle or just don’t resign him. But who are you going to give up and what holes would it make?

Also, he’s under contract until the year 2020 at a cap hit of 7.7MM. You don’t make that trade until you think he’s going to retire in your uniform, because he will be untradeable the last half-dozen years of his contract.

The Kings need help on the wings. Snipers on the wings.

Anon –

I agree Atlanta will a King’s ransom for Kovalchuk. For Kings fans to imagine that trade, you have to imagine something that’s going to hurt. Frolov, Boyle and a 1st is an example of something that wouldn’t hurt at all (come on, that’s basically Frolov for a 50-goal scorer, that’s not hurt). Hurt is: Frolov, Johnson, Hickey, Bernier and two 1sts. That might get it done.

As far as the Islanders thing goes, I don’t think Doughty and Johnson are equivalent. Nobody’s going to debate who to take if they’re given the choice between Johnson and Doughty.

Geak out on these lines…

Gaborik-Lecavalier-Brown
Gaborik-Lecavalier-Williams
Gaborik-Lecavalier-Purcell

Hmm…playoffs. Yep, those are all winners.

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