Forum answers III
The third set of open forum answers follows...
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Questions: 1) Did Dean Lombardi almost attack you when you asked about fighting in the NHL ? What is your take on fighting ? 2) What was the practice ice like when news broke Patrick O'Sullivan was traded ? 3) On the trade deadline day, any idea why Jim Fox speculated the Kings could make a big trade for Kovalchuk ? I don't think he meant that day but eventually. 4) Any chance we can do a Q&A with Jim Fox ? 5) Any kind of update on Jack Johnson negotiations ? 6) Who is the most vocal guy in the locker room ? 7) Do you get the sense that Terry Murray is supposed to be the goalie that leads us to the Stanley Cup ? Or is he just an interim coach that will teach the kids defense ? 8) What issue are you most interested in during the GM's meeting ? What issue would you have them talk about ?
Answers: 1) Yes, and he would have received an instigator penalty. I think my opinion is pretty close to what Brian Burke expressed today. Don't limit fighting, but if you're going to have an instigator rule, enforce it. Beyond that, it's too difficult to judge what a ``staged'' fight is. It's just going to lead to more off-ice drama. 2) It was a very odd scene. I was standing by the rink right when the trade got announced, and it was very, very quiet. The players walked onto the ice in silence and there was very little chatter. It was obvious that something significant had happened. 3) Well, because there's a good chance the Kings might try to make a deal like that. They know they need one more ``impact'' forward, and there's probably roughly a 50-50 chance that the forward will come via trade or free agency? 4) Definitely. Jim has been very gracious to do his lengthy Q&A in July, when I'm on vacation, for the past two years. I'll probably wait until then. Maybe Bob Miller? 5) Not really, other than that I learned recently that Johnson doesn't have arbitration rights this summer. I thought he did. So that's one more reason why Lombardi isn't stressed out it right now. 6) Derek Armstrong. 7) If Terry Murray is the goalie to lead the Kings to the Stanley Cup, they've got big, big problems. Just joking. I certainly think Lombardi hired Murray with the intention of taking the Kings deep into the playoffs. He did it with Philadelphia, so I'm sure in Lombardi's mind, he can do it with the Kings. 8) I'd like to hear more about performance-enhancing drugs in the NHL. There seems to be this perception that hockey players don't take them. Why is that?
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Question: On a semi-related note, do you think Dean Lombardi takes the whole, "Kings' tattoo on the ass" thing too far? He seems to require unfettered loyalty to the organization at slightly-below market prices; if the player wants to be paid at a reasonable level, he's automatically "not a team guy." But then he'll trade players like Lubomir Visnovsky, who clearly did have a Kings' tattoo on the rear. I understand players signing less for Detroit (for a Cup run), or near their hometowns (Canada or the East Coast), but LA probably isn't tops on list, especially given the travel throughout the season. If anything, should DL be willing to overpay folks to stay (or sign on as a FA), instead of demanding that they take less than market value to demonstrate their loyalty to the team?
Answer: Perhaps I'm misunderstanding what Lombardi says on this subject, but I have never had the impression that he's asking players to take ``hometown discounts.'' In the cases of Cammalleri and O'Sullivan, he went to the wall because they were young players who were asking for more money than he thought they deserved. I think you'd have to go back and show me stuff that indicated players weren't ``team guys'' if they didn't sign for less than market value. The stuff about having the ``tattoo'' was more in terms of what kind of players he wants to have on the team. Cammalleri is gone because he wanted $6 million a year, not because Lombardi wouldn't pay market value.
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Question: My question has to deal with Kopitar. This year Murray has talked a lot about Kopitar digging in and playing a better two-way game than before, however he still is worst on the team with a negative 16. I realize there are many other factors that tie in with plus minus but why has his "new" defensive mind not changed that number at all from last year where he ended a negative 15?
Answer: I'm guilty of using plus-minus, but it really is a pretty useless stat. The honest answer to your question is, I don't know. I can theorize, however, that because Kopitar is regularly drawing the toughest defensive assignments on the team -- against the opponents' top players -- his chances of being on the ice for goals against has been increased. That, coupled with the fact that Kopiar's personal offensive numbers have been down slightlly, can help explain it.
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Question: 1. Could you give your opinion on the chances of Gauthier, Army and Calder returning next year? They are all UFA's. My guess is Calder is 50/50. The rest will move on. 2. JJ's game seems to have regressed in the past few weeks. He was almost non-existent on the ice last night. Are the Kings taking a wait and see attitude w/ JJ on the new contract due to performance? 3. Preissing. Trade him this summer? And with his contract and declining stock, will it be tough for DL to unload him? 4. What do you think in your opinion the Kings need to address in the FA market (or via trade) this summer? Sniper? One more solid D man? Or does Williams fill the sniper role now that he's here?
Answer: 1) Just personal opinions... Calder: 60 percent; Armstrong: 60 percent; Calder; Gauthier: 25 percent. 2) The only wait-and-see aspect of it might be, how many years do they want to commit to? It's not as though they're going to say, ``He had a bad two weeks in March so we're not going to re-sign him.'' But if they see things that they think might be long-term issues, it might impact their willingness so sign him to a Kopitar-type deal (in terms of length). 3) I think you pretty much answered your own question there, to be honest. 4) The Kings definitely need another top-six forward. That's the biggest hole that needs to be filled. Williams fills a hole, but there's another hole that needs to be filled. On defense, with O'Donnell and Greene back, there might be a need for another ``bridge'' defenseman next season, but not a huge name.
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Question: What do you see happening with Harrold in the future? The Kings clearly have a lot of D options, but he really seems to have played great as a fourth liner. And has Boyle finally shown any grit in Manch? It seems like it's easy to give up on him as a fan but I think everyone would love to see him do what it takes.
Answer: Harrold really did himself a favor by showing he can play on the wing. Given the depth of defensive prospects in the organization, Harrold might be hard-pressed to crack that lineup. The Kings love his competitiveness, though, and there's a good chance he can earn himself a spot as a fourth-line winger. The fact that he can play defense only enhances his attractiveness as a player. If it's a choice between two borderline NHL wingers, you're definitely going to keep the guy who has some versatility. I haven't seen any Manchester games, so I really can't speak to Boyle. I haven't heard about any dramatic improvement he has made in Manchester. He's scoring goals down there, but that's not necessarily all that the Kings are looking for.
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Question: Since the Williams move was clearly for next season and not for the stretch run don't you think that greatly reduces Dean making a big move around the draft? If he makes a "franchise forward" type deal everyone but me is counting on. ... With that said, and with Williams' knee clearly still not 100%, is Murray obligated to put him in the line up? What if the team is red hot and in 8th place when his finger heals?
Answer: ``Greatly reduces''? No, not even close. I wouldn't even say ``slightly'' reduces. Williams is not the final piece of the puzzle, in terms of the top-six forwards. Lombardi knows he needs another big piece up there. The question is, which piece? And how do you get him? As far as Williams' knee ``clearly still not 100%,'' I'm not sure where that comes from, since his knee surgery was in Dec. 2007. I don't think Murray would change anything if he felt like he had the perfect combination of 12 forwards, but given what we've seen from Murray this season, I don't think he ever feels like he has the perfect combination of 12 forwards.
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Question: Since the rest of the season is one long 16 game road trip (no more than one game at home at a time) how many points or wins is realistic?
Answer: Well, if you play the averages, the Kings are 13-15-1 on the road this season and slightly over .500 at home. There's really no basis to predict some huge swing in either of those statistics, so if the Kings go .500 the rest of the way, they would finish with 83 points.
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Question: If the kings miss the playoffs this year and next, is Dean Lombardi gone?
Answer: It's more about progress than it is about making the playoffs. This season is a clear step forward over last season. I don't think any reasonable person would say that missing the playoffs this season is cause for firing. If, next season, the Kings don't continue to move forward, Lombardi is going to have a problem. He already burned his ``coach'' card by firing Crawford and hiring Murray. I've felt, since last summer, that Lombardi won't get to hire another coach (unless Murray should leave on his own). If things go sour, Lombardi would go down with the ship. He bought himself some time last summer, when ownership went all-in with the youth movement, but there must be continued progress. ``Progress'' will ultimately be judged by ownership.
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Questions: 1) Were Dean Lombardi and Patrick O'Sullivan on bad terms before the deal was done? 2) How are the contract negotiations going with Jack Johnson.. 3) Contract talks with Frolov? 4) Where does Dean Lombardi stand on signing restricted free agents to offer sheets? Ryan Clowe could be an option, Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, David Booth.. 5) What's Dean Lombardi think of Bernier's play of late, and Trevor Lewis' above average year in Manchester.. 6) Do you think DL would sign a guy like Gaborik or trade for a guy like Filppula..?
Answers: 1) No. 2) I think I pretty much answered this on an earlier question, talking about his arbitration rights, etc. 3) They can't even start until July 1. 4) This was sort of asked and answered before as well. I don't think he wants to get into those wars, not with the number of RFAs he might have coming up in the next few years. 5) After trade-deadline day, Lombardi talked about Bernier ``starting to figure it out,'' so I think he's pleased there. I haven't asked about Lewis. 6) Gaborik was asked and answered earlier as well, and I haven't heard any serious talk about Detroit trading Filppula.

J.P. Hoornstra writes about NHL and IHL hockey for the Los Angeles Newspaper Group. He welcomes any and all dialogue on the finer points of hockey.
E-mail J.P. at
Jill Painter joined the Daily News in 2000 and during the last eight years she's covered the Dodgers, Cal State Northridge, UCLA, Kings, golf and everything in between. Even though she's from Colorado, she still freezes in the Staples Center press box but always manages to thaw her fingers in time to make deadline. E-mail Jill at 

Rich, re Kopitar playing against the other teams best players -
Statistically, Frolov plays against the toughest competition, followed by SOD, Simmonds, Doughty, Handzus and then Kopitar.
Question: If the kings miss the playoffs this year and next, is Dean Lombardi gone?
Answer: It's more about progress than it is about making the playoffs. This season is a clear step forward over last season. I don't think any reasonable person would say that missing the playoffs this season is cause for firing. If, next season, the Kings don't continue to move forward, Lombardi is going to have a problem. He already burned his ``coach'' card by firing Crawford and hiring Murray. I've felt, since last summer, that Lombardi won't get to hire another coach (unless Murray should leave on his own). If things go sour, Lombardi would go down with the ship. He bought himself some time last summer, when ownership went all-in with the youth movement, but there must be continued progress. ``Progress'' will ultimately be judged by ownership.
-Thanks for the response. If we don't make the playoffs next year and yet we are still considered "progressing" I'm going to have to submit a new definition to Webster's. I love what DL has been doing with the team, but it is what it is right. AEG however, is probably viewing progess as a function of Revenue - COGS.
Rich or anyone who know the answer..How many people keep tract of the stats...The toi seems to be really hard to do..Is there a system on how that is done??Thanks for any input..its very interesting to me..
But anyone who actually watches the games can see the HUGE improvement in Kopi's defensive play. I don't know how many times last year I said to my wife (sitting next to me), after we had been scored against, "Kopi lost his man". Last year Kopi was a lost soul in the defensive zone. His board work was weak. He was often out of position - trying to cheat to the blue line, hoping one of his teammates would get the puck & feed him. He often lost the guy he was supposed to be defending.
It's been a complete turn around this season. Kopi is one of the better forward in the defensive zone. He backchecks hard. He fights along the boards, knows his defensive responsibilities. He's become very good at coming back fast and deep into his own zone to support his defensemen.
I'm not going to hand him the Selke trophy - but compared to last season, I can't think of any other forward on the team who's improved as much defensively.
Sybil -
Agreed, completely.
Question4. What do you think in your opinion the Kings need to address in the FA market (or via trade) this summer? Sniper? One more solid D man? Or does Williams fill the sniper role now that he's here?
Answer:On defense, with O'Donnell and Greene back, there might be a need for another ``bridge'' defenseman next season, but not a huge name.
You really think they'll get another bridge D'man or will the Kings give a long look to a guy like Hickey or Voinov?
Rich
I too check in close to 10 times a day to find a good read. I love this blog. The work you do for us kings fans is invaluable. If the paper had to cut you maybe we could just pay you for your work. I mean come on I pay for my hockey on TV. I pay for my internet so I can visit this site. I pay for my Iphone so I can check throughout my work day. whats one more bill. Thats it if the time comes just send me a bill and I will gladly pay it.
thanks for all you do.
On performance enhancing drugs:
1) If you know what to look for, you can often see whether folks are using steroids or not just by looking at their builds. Folks using enough steriods bulk out beyond what any normal person can do lifting wieghts. Their veins bulge, for example. Size seems unreal. (now, its still a lot of work). Smart cheaters try to hide with long sleeve shirts, etc. (Some baseball players are examples. Compare their before and after photos. Or our Governor Terminator A. For track, maybe FloJo (now dead) or the greek couple who were caught). In general, hockey players lack the builds one would associate with steroid use. Ergo, they probably are not using.
Having seen a bunch of NHL players fairly close up in street clothes, there was only one I suspected of using. (Since I do not know for sure, I shall not say who I suspected except to say he does not play for the Kings.) Out of their pads, the NHL players look like normal folk. (They are not, but they are not like say, USC football players, who look like giants out of their pads--and at least in the late 80's, did not have steroid looks. They are just giants.)
Steriods give a 10-20% edge, which would move Gauthier above Phaneuf. So competition being what it is, they are a big temptation.
2) My old Professor Harry Edwards at Cal (84-85) thought that hockey players were the only professional atheletes not using PE drugs. He made a joke that they were simpler folks whose idea of fun was going to the pub for a pitcher of brew. Anyway, Edwards pointed out the the PE drugs were kind of like an arms race. Once the players knew others were using, they had to use to keep pace. In the end, all suffered. This was awhile back of course but the idea holds true.
On testing, I beieve it was actually the NFL PLAYERS who wanted the PE testing. This after they realized the damage steroids would do. They knew if the guys across the ball were using, they needed to use to keep up. Better no one did. Edwards might have had some input on that one.
In terms of performance enhancing drugs and the NHL, It's my opinion it's considered a non-issue because most of the players participate in the Olympics every two years and the testing that takes place is serious. People probably think since no players have been called out for failing those drug tests, that most are playing legit. One can question the "bubble" NHLer, since he is a looong shot from playing in the winter games. But, by definition those players are still "bubble" nhlers and the PED's are not having a great affect. JMHO
Two questions:
Rich, would you please explain your reasoning behind +/- being a "pretty useless stat"?
Quisp, where did you get the statistics for your first post above? I'm not disagreeing with you, just curious to know how one tracks that, or find information that has tracked it.
Datacloud, re useless plus/minus:
I know what the consensus reasoning is re the flaws of plus/minus. Generally, the complaint is that it doesn't take into account a player's role on the team (i.e. checkers/stoppers are going to be on the ice for more goals), the quality of opposition (some players routinely skate against the best of the other team, some only against the weakest opponents), the ability of your linemates, the overall quality of your team (great players on bad teams will have worse plus/minus; mediocre players on great teams will have inflated numbers, e.g. Preissing on Ottawa) or ice-time (players who play a lot will be on the ice for more goals both ways -- some argue that this evens out, but it's deceptive that two players can have the same plus/minus and yet one might be on the ice for a hundred goals for and against and the other just for five or ten).
However.
This is why people have started tracking "advanced" plus/minus stats. There are some pretty good sites for such numbers, which I will cut-and-paste at the end. Instead of just one number for +/-, they calculate goals, assists and points scored per 60 minutes of ice time; goals-for per 60 minutes; goals-against per 60 minutes (p.s. on the Kings, the player with the worst GA/60 is Brian Boyle); off-ice plus/minus (which tells you how well the team does when a player is sitting on the bench -- Kings with best off-ice plus/minus: Boyle and Preissing); quality of competition (which averages the skill levels of everyone on the other team skating at the same time as a given player -- Kings who get the easiest competition: Zeiler, Gauthier, Preissing); quality of teammates (which averages the skill level of the players skating with you)...and a billion other such stats. For goalies, there's a great breakdown of SV% for (basically) easy, medium and hard shots. There's stats for shots blocked (p.s. Greene is gold in this department); penalties drawn (Brown leads the league in this, and POS is in the top ten).
http://www.behindthenet.ca/ and http://hockeystats.no-ip.org:81/ are the best sources for these numbers.
On hockey players using PED's
I would hope that our game is pure, but to think it's 100% pure is silly.
It doesn't make much sense for hockey players to bulk up using roids but that doesn't mean that they aren't using other types of PED's.
Example is sport of cycling. They're loaded with cheats....most of them taking EPO...another form of a PED...its not to bulk you up, but allows you to go further, faster.
Nobody knows what these athletes are taking. I'm sure there are drugs out there being taken that the drug testers don't even know about..
Because +/- is a pretty useless stat.
Wayne Gretzky was once a +127 in a season. Are you going to say he was a defensive God?
Marty McSorely once led the league in +/- with a plus 56 (tied with Theo Fluery that year). NEITHER were God's defensively.
Tom Preissing, his last year in Ottawa was somewhere around a +35...it's a horrific statistic.
``clearly still not 100%,'' I'm not sure where that comes from, since his knee surgery was in Dec. 2007."
Handzus suffered his torn ACL in October of 2006 and pretty much took until training camp 2008 to look 100%. That coupled with the fact Williams has scored 3 goals in 32 games since his injury and I pretty much assumed his knee won't be 100% until training camp.
As far as +/- goes, there is nothing wrong with Kopitar's two play. And Preissing is the poster boy against the stat. Ottawa had the leagues best line and Preissing got a ton of 5on5 ice time with them. A majority of teams put checking lines out there vs the Alfie line so Preissing never had to face top end talent. Then in the Finals the Pahlsson, Neidermayer and Moen line ATE HIM ALIVE and Mr +40 was reduced to 8-12 minutes a night.
PS-
Thanks a million for doing this Rich. We Kings fans truely are (finally) spoiled by a media outlet in LA.
Speaking of which, Kopitar is seventh in the league among forwards in blocked shots. pretty good indicator, no?