FINAL: Kings 5, Stars 4 (OT)

how's sully looking tonight? oh, wait...i forgot.

He looked pretty invisible in the Edmonton game

So I can't watch the game on the Yahoo NHL site. Says I'm not in the area ... or something like that.

Hey Rich, did you ever get a chance to speak with Williams?

Whoa that's a weird lineup, no? Handzus playing the wing? Well let's see the turn out of these lineups.. Why not just call Trevor Lewis up, make Denis Gauthier a healthy scratch and put Harrold on D with JMFJ..

So less than a day after DL says Simmonds-Handzus and Brown-Stoll work really well together, the duos aren't together? Genius!

So I'm watching Purcell play, and I'm wondering why he wasn't traded.

what did Stoll do to get dumped down to the third line?
do they just want to see what Moller can do at center?

Purcell does not fit in the top 2 lines. Moller however has something to offer in the top 2 lines. With Williams in the lineup-Moller with Stoll and Brownie.......where do you put Purcell??? Just dont see a fit.

ps-where is the energy, are we depressed with the loss of POS...........hope not.

because Johnny, no one wanted Purcell...duh! by the way, I like the Chili Peppers reference in your handle...nice one man!

2 things i have noticed this game, the stars commentators are stupid and gauthier sucks a big one

2 possible scenarios to Kings games lately.
a) Outplay other team throughout first period, but don't score on any of their good scoring opportunities. Then, allow other team to score on their first scoring opportunity. Collapse.
b) Allow a goal (or a couple) in the first few minutes in the game. Stay competitive trying to play catch up, but ultimately fail to score the tying goal, finish by giving up a empty netter.

Guess which scenario we have tonight?

So do we like to play hockey or..?

Gauthier sure looks good tonight, huh?

better draft pick at least right?

Wow, did you hear the Dallas announcers laughing like little girls at the Kings. What homers!

I am so sick of this team, what happened to our defense? And our offense still sucks. Man the rest of the league went playoff hockey and we went to the crapper. I am not sure this team is any better than the one who finished last year when we finally had ersberg?

That 4-1 road trip seems like a loooong time ago. Wait til next year...again...

It's sad when the only thing we have left to root for is for the Ducks to miss the playoffs too.

I wouldn't say the Dallas announcers are stupid; it just sound like the rodeo is their primary sport.

I say we drop all these guyz to the AHL and really kick some ASS!

what happen to our team?
this is horrible team work...
we did so good and we lost it?
i just dont understand it

Kings are dusted, they know they have no chance of making the playoffs.. I just hope Frolov reaches 35 goals, to be honest.. 1-6 on the Powerplay is just astonishing, let's keep up the good PP boys, good word, well done..

jeez

Booooooooooooo!

The Dallas announcers are more annoying than the Ducks announcers...I was not sure that was possible. Those guys are horrible! Thank god for Foxy and Miller.

Yaaaaaaaaaaaay!

TURCO....TURCO....TURCO..... OT baby!!

4-4 Baby!!!!
About the Dallas announcers, read my post on the game preview thread.

Handzus the STAR killer!!!!!!!!!!!! 2 points baby!!!

(Hatzeus)

holy crap!

Now that is what I am talking about. Started sluggish, bounced back, and got the 2 points. I liked their play after they woke up.

These are the Kings ...no doubt!!!!

Makes note to always go to the game when Dallas is in town.

what a game!!!! 5-4 in OT!!!

Wow, Yahoo! Sports just posted the game as a 4-3 Final Dallas victory. OOPS! I am sure they will get that changed shortly...

AK47......do you have anything to add?

Thats right boys. you got it done tonight

Man, the Kings did not deserve to win this game. Stupid penalties and bad luck beat the Stars tonight.

See, never mind, they already changed it!

i take my Boo back.

but they still seemed listless and Turco lost that game

Zeus rocks!

what a game that was an amazing comeback!

Man, oh, man, what a comeback!!! It seems every great comeback is against Dallas. I love it! Go Kings.

Poor Rich needs to rewrite his game story. Don't run AP Rich...give us the rewrite!

I wonder how Helene Elliott is feeling right now after todays article. Pretty rough stuff.

Hats off to Zus. He was the best King tonight by far. He was making Turco's life miserable all night.

We didn't really deserve this win, but then, Montreal didn't deserve a single point against the Kings.

All you Kings fans that like to bash on your team sure got quiet on this comment board.

Do you really want to stop rooting for this team that did not stop working?

Let the trade pan out, until then....

I want to put it out there: sully who???

So we lose the games we fight so hard at and deserve to win....

And we win the games we suck so bad and deserve to lose...

This team is so frikkin backwards, I could swear it's backed by the government!

I love how the posts sounded and how many after the game...

why didn't we deserve to win? Because we outworked Dallas and forced them to take penalties against us?...man I'm so sick of some of these comments on here...

Wow.. I'm stunned.. As much as I love this, I did not see it coming.. Shows how much heart we have as a team.. Thank God Dallas took all those penalties at the end of the game, and what a game by Handzus on the WING! Haha, maybe we found a new position for him..

I LOVE ITTTTTT

Sorry for being so negative boys, my apologies..

If it's still up, you've GOT to see the front page of hockey.yahoo.com!

The lead story is "Star Power", and the lead is "The Stars held off the struggling Kings 4-3 to continue a last-ditch run at playoff contention."

HAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who got the assists on Handzus' OT winner? Sorry, I live in Canada so it's kind of tough since every NHL website says that both these teams are still in O.T. with 3:29 minutes left..

You know I've pretty much kept my mouth shut, but... Please.... guys look what happened here . yeah some of you were pissed at the sully trade (I thought it was a good one) and from the start of this game the bashing started. This is a kings fan site, being a fan means through thick and thin. you want a beeees get the #@$% out. we are going to be a force in the near future, better then we have ever been. some of you guys (sorry Rich) really suck @ss with your constant bashing. Look where we are and look at where were going. sit back and enjoy the ride. DL knows what he's doing you don't. we are a much better team and have a plan for the future. Seriously get a life!!!

Sully WHO??? HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA We didn't miss him this game... Besides, Moller plays alot like Sully and not too far behind him (Maybe a year or 2 away)??
Zues is my hero!! He had a whole different gear he shifted into. I like how aggressive Zues was in front of Turco in the third...Much improved. I couldn't stop laughing how the puck kept finding Dallas' d-men and going into their own net...That whole coaching staff were so pissed, they had veins exploding on their foreheads....I am loving when it finally goes our way!!!!! Thanks again Rich...Fantastic job!!!You really are #1...

Nice day at the office for Quick.

1) Make 4 saves, check.

2) Get the win, check.

3) Go home.

Well let me start with that was crazy...Nice to get to watch that on a TV and not on a computer here in Ft Worth. Now I KNOW I hate the Dallas announcers more then I hate the Ducks announcers, at the begining of the broadcast they guy with the fairy hair started to call the Kings the Queens. Well look who is laughing now you fruit.
I hope I see that fruit loop at the game in Dallas on the 26th then we will see him shut up when I start to clown him.
And I feel Brownies goal should have counted....in the 3rd.
Great Game.....

Anthony, Anhony, where for art thou Anthony?

Funny...Yahoo reported that we lost the game...

Eighteen games left. There's a fifty-fifty chance that 88 points will be good enough. 12-5-1. That's the worst we can do. 14-4 would be a virtual lock on a spot. Tell you what: let's shoot for 7-2 over the next nine. Then we'll need to go 5-3-1 over the last nine. Oh, and I picked that break (two weeks from now) because that's about when we're supposed to get Williams into the line-up.

But you already knew I was an optimist, right?

Too bad we didn't win a couple more of those last 7 games. But hey, it's a streaky team.

What number is Williams going to wear?

Great comeback for the boys and Dallas better not act like that in the third period in the playoffs or they're one and done.

Zues was a beast and he deserved the goals. He takes beatings all year long and has had more success this year that he deserves.

I still don't like the trade but we can only hope that next year Williams rebounds like Handzus did this year.

The Kings got some nice bounces for a change tonight. A few of those during the season and we'd have won a few games.

@Quisp

looks like your target numbers are getting flexible. 88 points?

optimism vs. delusion ;)

we've lost 6 of the last 8 in regulation.

if i plug these results into your current projection of 12-5-1 eight games ago, we could have gone 14-11-1 and still be in the playoff hunt?

a little more than optimistic.

so what's the true figure? or do i have to go hunting through old posts since the search feature is worthless.

wavesinair, re flexible:

Here's the deal. Traditionally, 93 points is the threshold. Just looking at any season from day one, you have to target 93 points. But as the season progresses, that threshold changes, as the real numbers play out. Since about two months ago, I have been referencing a site that runs a computer simulation (actually millions of simulations) of the remainder of the NHL season, using a coin-toss to determine the outcome of each individual game given the current standings as a starting point. Using those numbers, the simulation shows the number of times a given team ended up at x points and where that got them in terms of the final standings. This season is so tight, with so many teams battling each other for spots, that the threshold number has dropped a bit. How much it will drop ultimately is still a question. But here are the odds of each final point total being good enough for the Kings, as of today:

94 - 100%
93 - 99.9%
92 - 99.3%
91 - 96.5%
90 - 88.6%
89 - 71.9%
88 - 47.5%
87 - 24.5%
86 - 8.8%
85 - 2.3%

Which is why I said that 88 points gives us a fifty-fifty chance of making the playoffs. Now, regarding optimism/delusion, I would just say that, three weeks ago, I would never have been happy to get to 88 points and have it come down to 50/50 odds that that's good enough. Because, obviously, it's just as likely not to be good enough. I want a sure thing, and a sure thing is no longer reasonable to hope for. Even though the sure thing number has dropped from the traditional 93 down to roughly 91.

How I read these numbers is this: if the Kings get to 87 points, they have a LOOOOOONG shot of getting in. 88 points, it's a coin toss. 89 points: we're probably in. 90 points, almost certainly in. 91 points, for sure.

It will be semi-miraculous (but it's possible) to get to the coin toss, 88 points. There's no way getting around it: the Kings have to get hot now, or they're done. They can lose 4 or 5 more times. Period.

wavesinair followup --

The thing you're saying about going 14-11-1 is this: the Kings just went 1-6 or whatever they did. Let's say it's 2-6 after last night's game. So adding 12-5-1 to it, that's 14-11-1 over the last 26 games. They went 1-6; they could have gone 0-11-1, but then obviously they would have to go 14-0 the last fourteen games. It depends on your definition of "still in the playoff hunt." Most people would say the Kings are out of it as of now. I think not.

Really it comes down to your comfort level. Previously, I was talking about the number we would need to be guaranteed to be in. That's better than being "in the hunt." Guaranteed means there is no hunt: you're in. Now, because of the 1-6 run, it's all but impossible to get to any guarantee. Now the best we can hope for is to get to 88-ish and hope that other teams help us out.

Obviously it's much better to have your fate in your own hands, but they flushed that option down the toilet with the 1-6 run.

I hope that clarifies my optimism, which I see as kind of pessimistic, since I am now just hoping for a chance at the coin toss.

i appreciate your efforts to put down all the particulars on 'paper'. as always it's fun to read. i was just ribbing you a bit but all your points are well taken. it's tough to take that 1-6 run and think there's any hope, even after last nights heroics. but, as the numbers point out, there is a chance, however slim, that we can squeak in. i'd say 89 should be our 'grasping at straws' number instead of 88. there's a huge difference in % between the two.

my other question: do the simulations account for ties? i would think it does, but i'm fuzzy on tie breakers with all these teams so close. but i can't help but think we will get the short end of the stick on most of them...

AK...just an FYI...2-10 on the PP is 20%...in case you did not know, that's right around the league average, and that's pretty good.

I'm so sick of reading and hearing complaints about a PP that is ranked in the top 15 of the league, and even when not scoring, is dangerous on most PP's.

1. You cannot shoot through people. You must move the puck around to find a shooting lane. STOP YELLING SHOOT ALL THE TIME.

2. If the PP was easy, everyone would score 50% of the time. Killing a penalty is actually easier than scoring on one, thus why the best PP team in the NHL only scores on 1 of 4 opportunities.

I guess I only had two points, but I had to get those off my chest. If I remember correctly, the Kings are around 21% on the PP, and that is pretty damn good.

Sully had one shot last night in edmonton. I cant beleive we won this game

wavesinair -

There is a random (even) chance of any of the four possible outcomes (W, L, OTW, OTL).

As to your other point -- which I will paraphrase as "it seems insane to say we can still make the playoffs since we've managed to win only twice in our last eight games" -- I would say, absolutely, it is a fact that if we continue playing like that, it's over. The least likely aspect of all of this is the idea that the Kings will go from stone cold (1-6), to red hot (15-4) on a dime.

"There is a random (even) chance of any of the four possible outcomes (W, L, OTW, OTL)."

i don't think i was clear. by ties, i meant if we are tied in points with another team at the end of the season say at 89.

i'm thinking our record vs. that team would be the tie breaker and i'm guessing we don't have a winning record with many of the teams we are chasing.

The simulation takes into account the NHL tie-breaker, which is, in order: (1) wins, (2) points earned in games played among the tied teams (this is straight-forward when it's just two teams, but it could easily be three or more teams, in which case it gets complicated pretty quickly), (3) goal-differential, (4) preference to Canadian teams, (5) kidding about (4).

Season series head-to-head so far:

ANA -- Kings won head to head
NSH -- we're 0-2 so far with 2 games left
VAN -- 0-1 so far with 3 games left
DAL -- we're up 3-1 with two games left
EDM -- down 1-2 with one game left
PHX -- down 1-3 with 2 games left
CBJ -- even
MIN -- Kings win season series, no matter what (3-0 so far)

so we're in pretty good shape, if we're lucky enough to get into a five way tie for 8th!!

ahhh! nice! very cool breakdown.

"The least likely aspect of all of this is the idea that the Kings will go from stone cold (1-6), to red hot (15-4) on a dime."

especially since we haven't had anything close to a 15-4 run all year... i think the best we've done is 11 wins out of 19...

wonder when it happened last? before 2003? we finished that season with no wins in the last 11 games. ouch.

In 2001, after 59 games, the Kings were at 25-26-8. They finished the season 38-28-13, for 89 points. During that final stretch, they went 13-2-5 (within which there was a 9-1-2 stretch).

The last Andy Murray we had a couple of good streaks, the best being a 16-7-1 opening to the season and a 10-3-1 run a few weeks later. But not quite the 14-4 we need now.

in 01-02, there was a 13-3-3 stretch.
in, um, 90-91, we went 14-4-3 to close the season.

but really, the best such run ever (that I can recall or find thru haphazard digging) is the 00-01 stretch run, with potvin, deadmarsh and reinprecht. that's the gold standard, going from basically where we are now to where we need to be...