Loktionov thriving

Impressive,
Hopefully, we can package up a few of these prospects and trade them away for an offensive sniper.
Loktionov is still a few tears away. This team needs scoring help NOW.
And I do mean NOW.
But with this GM, I'm not going to hold my breath.

OR keep Lokitonov for development and have him become an impressive player in the future.. We don't have to package him in a deal for Gaborik?

Great place for him. Windsor should go deep into the playoffs and may even get to the memorial cup. Great experience for Lok-T.

Ya lets keep him. This guy can be 5th round gold.. Can anyone say Detroit?

Absolutely anthony, let's not develop players at all, and just trade them for spare parts. That always works!

Good idea Anthony! Maybe we can trade him for Mark Parrish or Anson Carter.

No, I was referring to players like Thmoas Vanek, or an Ales Hemsky, or a Derek Roy, perhaps even a Kovulchuk.

Of course we would probably have to thrown in some draft picks, and a few other prospects. But we need a sniper.

Anthony wants him traded so that he can bash DL's draft record. Good try.

Anthony...reading your posts give me high blood pressure.

Loktinov is young, talented, motivated, and INEXPENSIVE. So trade him? Really?

I said it long ago...point per game players are very very hard to come by in the NHL. So when a guy is better than a point per game playing Jr., you hold on to him and hope he can take those numbers to the next level. Trading him now would be GM suicide. Imagine a rookie with the Kings who can post 80 points in his first year. Imagine from the GM's standpoint of having that asset being paid the league minimum. That leaves room for even more talent on the books. And guess what, thats exactly how Detroit, New Jersey, and Boston, got to where they are today.

So really? Trade him? Put the pipe down.

Anthony,

Now is practically yesterday. Today, for all intensive purposes, will most likely validify that with a loss.

Think about tomorrow....

anthony is actually Dave Taylor?

Seems possible.

Naw, let's trade him for Cliff Ronning.

No No No. Trade him for Martin Straka

Eklund- the biggest fake out there- has gaborik to LA. WTF? this guy is clueless

poor anthony...

but you always seem to set yrself up for these "friendly fires"...

i think training camp next season is going to be sensational...heck, we might have that valued sniper waiting in the wings and just don't know it yet...13 d.p.'s upcoming, too...

so happy to hear about loktionov and his success...
...and i know deep down inside, anthony and his "fans" are happy, too...

Hey anthony, your GM going to Russia to meet Loktinov in person and get a feel for whether or not he'd cooperate in america is the REASON he is the Kings' property.

Get a clue.

Jayrew..

why is that so clueless? Gaborik has been rumored to the Kings since the starting of the year.. It's very possible, especially if Gabby becomes a UFA..

Frolov-Kopitar-Gaborik
Moller-Stoll-Brown
O'Sullivan-Lewis-Simmonds
Richardson-Armstrong-Purcell

To LA: Gaborik

To Min: Brian Boyle, Kyle Calder/Michal Handzus, 2nd round

Or he can be a bust.
Do the names Alexander Daigle or Pavel Rosa ring a bell.
Duh.
I stand by on what I said.
We need scoring help now. Our offense is way below average.

Anthony -

I've been thinking a lot lately about the issue of "help," the mythological creature known as the top-line sniper, and what it means for the Kings to capture one. All this talk lately about the cap, running numbers for next season (on other threads), has really opened my eyes about the real world possibilities under the cap.

Teams are either capped-out or they have room under the cap. Some teams are doing well (relatively) despite having lots of cap room. Some teams are doing badly despite being capped-out. There is a very fine line between the floor and the ceiling. It's okay to be near the ceiling if you're San Jose or Detroit. Not so much if you're Anaheim or Ottawa.

Point #1 (I don't even know if there's a point #2): Acquiring the top-line 50-goal scoring sniper man instantly by definition puts us within a couple million of the ceiling. Getting one guy. There isn't room for any team to have two such guys and be able to afford reasonable support for them. Therefore, Pittsburgh's troubles, and Detroit's struggles (do they sign Hossa and forfeit the ability to sign supporting players, or forgo Hossa -- I think they'll let Hossa walk).

I previously hadn't looked hard enough at the numbers, to see that my fantasy of (for example) getting Heatley and Hossa was simply not possible...without giving up lots of salary in return. That's $15MM in salary, give or take. The Kings will be at $47MM (at least) before signing the last two pieces for next year. You can't add 15 and 47 add up to 62, which is at least $5MM over the cap, and the cap may go down. Just in terms of salary, you would have to get rid of (pick two of) Handzus, Stoll, Frolov or POS. Or you could just get rid of Kopitar.

So bringing in two such players can't happen. Bringing in just one? Say, Hossa, as a UFA this summer. Call it $7MM for three years. We're up to $54MM, which is just under the cap (forgetting for the moment that the cap is going to go down). Making a move like that, we are absolutely done with the dramatic upgrades and signings. Everything else will involve trading like-salaries, getting rid of our own big name players, such as they are. There wouldn't be any adding of big veteran goalies, or whatever. It would simply be over.

And...

Whoever we sign -- Hossa, in this example -- would have to be gone by the time the others come of age. Frolov, summer of '10, Doughty, Quincey, Quick, Bernier, Hickey, Simmonds, Moller, etc...

Four or five years from now, imagine what our defense is going to cost in terms of payroll if everything plays out according to our fantasy. I will be conservative (assuming, among other things, that the cap and the economy have a downward pressure on player salaries):

Doughty $6MM
Johnson $5MM
Quincey $3MM
Hickey $4MM
Teubert $3MM
Voynov $4MM
Campbell$2MM

That's $27MM in defensemen. Hmm. Could that ever happen? Considering we've got Kopitar at 7, POS at 3, Brown at 3, Frolov at 5 (guessing), Moller at (guess) 3, Simmonds at (guess) 3, Quick at (guess) 3...where are we now? That's another $27MM in forwards and one goalie.

$54MM total. Under the cap! Sadly, though, our imaginary roster is just 6 forwards, 7 defensemen and 1 goalie. We still have nine players to sign. So, even without some big Hossa guy in our future, it won't be long before big choices will have to be made. We won't be able to afford all of our defensive blue-chip prospects, and we won't be able to afford all of our "core" forwards, either.

Which is where the Loktionovs of the world come in. In "cap world," a team must have a steady rotation of youngsters on entry level contracts coming up through the ranks and playing significant minutes, or else you simply will not be able to ice a team and stay under the cap. This is why having a deep prospect pool is crucial to success in the future, because having the highest quality rookies and prospects in your lineup is becoming more and more crucial every day, just as important as having that one great sniper.

Think about the difference Doughty and Quincey and Quick have made to the Kings this year. And it's no different for Detroit (think Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen -- without them, where would the Wings have been the last three years?).

A team can have two or three superstars getting superstar money. And maybe five or six guys getting medium big money. And the rest are on a budget. Which means, either Armstrongs or Mollers, cheap vets or kids.

Thanks for being a gentleman in your comment Quisp.
Its hard to find that these days.

Geez Quisp, how do you have time to write those mini-novels??

My opinion is that timing is everything when it comes to trading for said-sniper! If he isn't already in your organization then he better get you the cup if you're giving up a bunch of prospects (that could turn out to be as valuable). Don't think the Kings are at that point, it's still "conservative time" for Mr Lombardi and he currently has "the league in his hands" option wise with cap space, deep prospect list & an emerging team etc.

Quisp...wow. Straight up to the point. Beautiful.

Anthony...Every team has their 'busts'. On both sides of the coin...that means busted picks and busted acquisitions. So its a never ending argument. It can go either way, and this discussion is happening because nobody can see the future. But everyone sees the dollar signs. That never goes out of focus. Loktionov is practically free. So why get rid of him?

Patience...the right player will be acquired before the start of next season.

Rich,
with Moller returning to the Kings, do you have the run down on the forward line combinations tonight.
Thanks.

Quisp.

Reading your post, I realized that many teams may not have room to bring in their "elite" prospects without going over the cap, too.

I'm not at all convinced a guy like Hossa wants to risk being in an Ottawa or Atlanta situation again, so I have doubts he'd sign here, but more great prospects won't put us too far out, monetarily.

Hodgson, Wilson, Van-R. These are they guys I'd like to see us pursue. And of course, you already know I like Mike Fisher.

I think we have the space to try and get some peices, maybe not the bait, i guess.

Cheers.

Cody Hodgson and Colin Wilson are two players I'd love to have on our team, but it's going to be tough to get high promising prospects like that. We'd have to give up Frolov..

We can just hold onto our 1st round pick and draft a guy like Jordan Schroeder.. He played on Colin Wilson's line during the WJC.. Very good player and I think he'd fit our system nicely..

Love Jordan Schroeder a lot. Not as much as Wilson, but a lot. Maybe he'll be the better of the two, eventually, however.

For starters, if there has been one thing Lombardi has done right it's the 2 through 5 rounds of the draft. Lets just maximize what he does right. Trades and signings have been way off the mark. So Conroy and Cammalleri are Flames and now we're going out of our way to find snipers and quality older players to guide the youngsters. This is dump and chase management. Lombardi with a draft pick is talented. With a trade not so much. I hope the deadline drifts away without incident.

How about this scenario???? Morrison and Satan (gotta love the evil one :) are on waivers. We trade nothing to claim them, just pick up the salaries, correct? They would be a huge upgrade at the end of the offensive list and we dump them at the end of the year. Costs us a few bucks, but might put us over the top!?!?!?

Thank you Quisp for another great analysis. Even when I don't agree with you on every point, you invariably make sense. Planning a future team with an uncertain cap brings risk, no matter who your GM is. I think even the last generations "geniuses" like Bill Torrey would have troubles in today's sysytem.
DL deserves kudos for his work in bringing Loktionov over here, and Lok should get a big organizational thank you for not playing the spoiled brat and demanding an assignment to Manchester instead of going to juniors.
Patience, all. I'll let Gaborik pull another muscle somewhere else.

I just reread my novel-length post above. I wanted to clarify that I'm not saying every one of our prospects is going to pan out. I'm really saying two things: if they do pan out, we can't afford them all, and, secondly, as it is now, we can only afford one more big salary.

(and, I guess I would add, if that's the way it is for the Kings, what must it be like for everyone else?)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCeaKSszYgQ&feature=related

CANADAA

Cristobal, maybe you want to change your mind on Colin Wilson after this..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8_KugCmGxk&feature=related

if you all remember...
the original story was loktionov having success...

just a lil' reminder that until some of these guys get a real nhl training camp, it's a bit harder to estimate exactly what that players nhl impact will be...

quisp...

liked a lot of what you had to say...

and i really think that 2010-11 salary cap is going to bring a lot of today's contenders to their knees in trying to fit what they would feel as their most prized assets under it...

absolutely correct...the way to build the success of a team in today's nhl is offering long-term entry level contracts to the prospects you feel have the best chance of making a nhl impact...

having said that...not everybody that d.l. has picked is going to pan out...that's just the sad truth...as much as the projected blueline you present sounds great, it's highly unlikely that all those names will be here come 10-11...here's hoping i'm wrong on that, but history does say otherwise...if d.l. is correct on all these guys (i would love to think so), he would be batting in bernie madoff company...

but maybe the bigger point is the detroit example...

datsyuk, zetterberg and hossa...are they snipers? sure...
but they are so much more than snipers...they are complete players that have very lil' issues, (if any) w/their games...

and i think that's what we should be looking for...a complete package-type of player that not only could score the "sniper" goals, but do the handzus things, as well...

how many players of that ilk will be available?

if the cap decreases in '10-11 like all gm's seem to think it will, that pool of players becomes much larger...

how do you do a cost/benfit, risk/reward analysis until yr sure of what that figure is? i think you can guesstimate and approximate until yr blue in the face as a gm...but until you have that hard figure, yr taking a big risk...and a million or two either way can make a huge difference in what is offered...

to your point, that chump change comes in handy when you are competing for the cup and need that space to go and pick up someone of influence on a short-term basis...

d.l. is going to have his hands full if all these guys pan out to be quality nhl'ers...that's a great problem to have...the even more difficult problem will be assessing what all this influx 'o' talent and d.p.'s is worth...and whom he will be able to fit under such difficult constraints...

thankfully, the nhl is not baseball...the same dilemma that d.l. will have is the same for all gm's...

and considering d.l.'s track record, i like him in our corner for these decisions...

Athony...how do you think guys like Tomas Vanek or Ales Hemsky came to be?????

They were drafted by their teams, and then their teams allowed them to develop.

Wow...what a wild concept!

i dont know if this qualifies as "breaking news" (the most overused t.v. term of today), but...

nik antropov has been asked to sit tonight out...on a much lesser scale, so has dominic moore...

i'm on the fence w/ antropov...such a big guy and sort of rather an underachiever...i'm not going to compare him w/frolov because alex (excuse me...alexander) is a much better player...but he has put up similar points this year on a terrible maple leaf team...

is he an advanced "brian boyle"?
can he bring his "A" game and passion to the ice every game?

not really sure...and i would venture to say no to him...just a thought

I'm a fan of Antropov, but I definately understand the knock on him. I think he is what we hope Boyle will become, so if we are giving up on Boyle he might be a good 2nd line center.

I would not give DL credit for drafting any of these prospects until they become bonafide NHL players. More prospects than most will either be busts or mediocre players than stars. Doing well in juniors is a long way away from starring in the NHL. Rookies coming into the NHL and getting 80 points a game does not happen very often in the new NHL. Having top prospects will mean absolutely nothing unless team can win the Cup.
Time will tell.

metalmaster...

I think you meant 80 points in a season, not game. And you're right. It very rarely happens. An average of about once every 2 years actually...Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Staal, wait...the list is growing, and its not ending...Selanne, Lecavalier, Robitaille, Hull, Kane (72), Stastny...I could keep going...but I think you see where I'm headed.

My point is, this caliber of talent does exist. It starts at the draft table, and sometimes it takes a while for guys to bloom. Example: Datsyuk only had 35 points his rookie year. Long story short, championship teams are built at the draft.

No, I think metalmaster seriously thinks you need 80 points a game.

mrbrett7 said:
Athony...how do you think guys like Tomas Vanek or Ales Hemsky came to be?????
They were drafted by their teams, and then their teams allowed them to develop.
Wow...what a wild concept!

Why isn't that your argument when Boyle is the subject? Is he supposed to exit the womb fully formed? I wonder if Vanek or Hemsky were ever asked to play defense for a 1/4 of their Minor league season?

Yeah anonymous and you are probably one of those delusionals who probably thought that the trio of Purcell, Moulson and Boyle would combine for 75 or so goals this year.
Yeah TB I did mean points and since scoring in the league has been steadily going down it is becoming rarer for rookies to average a point a game. This year is a prime example of that. I do agree with most of your points and drafting is important but I think player development is just as important.