Box Office Buzz: McConaughey back on the big screen...

Believe it or not, this picture of a shirtless Matthew McConaughey is actually a movie still and not just another one of the countless paparazzi shots of him on the beach in Malibu. Either way, the man is gorgeous, AND, he has a new film out which is among the movies I write about in my weekly Box Office Buzz column.

Here it is:

Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson versus Martin Lawrence in showdown between comedies, opening today, that each will be trying to claim the number one spot in the box office derby.

But the winner could be...Miley Cyrus!

That’s right, little Hannah Montana herself. She has been filling theaters for the past seven days with the concert film “Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds” which more than doubled my projections last week with a debut just shy of $30 million.

“Hannah” has stayed strong in mid-week grosses so it’s tough to count it out as repeat champ. But the re-teaming of McConaughey and Hudson in the romantic comedy “Fool’s Gold” could open in the $20 million to $25 million range so holdover for “Hannah” will have to be strong to out-gross it.

FEBRUARY MAN: The month has been very good to McConaughey in years past - especially when he’s in a romantic comedy opposite a popular leading lady.
The last time he and Hudson teamed teamed up was five years ago in “How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days” which had a $23.8 million bow and went on to pass the $100 million mark domestically. Then in 2006, McConaughey teamed with Sarah-Jessica Parker in the romantic comedy “Failure to Launch” which had a $24.4 million debut.

WELCOME MARTIN: Lawrence in a comedy is more often than not a popular draw, especially with African-American audiences who have flexed plenty of box office muscle lately.
Last year, Lawrence co-starred in “Wild Hogs” which had am opening weekend just shy of $40 million and went on to gross $180 million-plus domestically. Two years ago, his comedy “Big Momma’s House 2” debuted at $27.7 million.

I’m confident that His newest comedy, “Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins,” will open with a gross of at least $20 million.

NOT A CHANCE: The weekend’s third wide release, “Vince Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show,” has flop-sweat written all over it. I don’t think this comedy concert film - opening in about 800 theaters - will even make the $5 million mark. But it will fare far better than “The Hottie and the Nottie,” Paris Hilton’s latest effort to be something other than a talent-challenged celebutante.

I think people feel they already get enough of Paris - to the point of over-saturation - so it doesn’t seem likely that very many will shell out good money to see her on the big-screen. It also does not help that “Hottie” is opening in only 111 theaters. Gee, I wonder why more theater owners didn’t want to bump say, “There Will Be Blood” or “Juno” to show something called “The Hottie and the Nottie.”

SLOW ROLL-OUT: The crime comedy“In Bruges” is getting the platform release strategy opening in just 28 locations today. The Focus Features film stars Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson and Ralph Fiennes and aims to capitalize on solid reviews and positive word of mouth.