Pasadena real estate market: going up or down?

I published an entry several days ago that suggested prices had a slight rise based on a theory of a local Realtor/blogger, Doug Willis. Much to my satisfaction, other Realtors got on the blog to comment and offer their own theories. What can I say, I like people reading my blog, and kicking around interesting theories, even if I am not expert enough to know which is correct.

In a related post, another Realtor/blogger, Sam Pritchard (apparently we have a few of those here in Pasadena) confirms Willis' observations about the slight uptick in Pasadena real estate in September, and suggests the market in Pasadena may have hit its bottom and will begin to rise.

Willis had suggested a different theory, the idea that local real estate agents raised the price on their unsold homes just to keep them under a listing category that gives priority to homes that have recently changed in price. Other real estate agents that commented on that post suggested that was unlikely.

Now, Willis is looking at some new data for this month, and believes that whatever caused the slight uptick last month is over, and the market is on its way back down:

If ask to bottom line the current situation in our real estate market, I believe it can be assessed with one word. UNCERTAINTY. Uncertainty is usually not a friend of someone looking to make a major investment. Very few of us have the nerve to take a contrarian point of view and buck the herd mentality. It was also brought to my attention that we just might be experiencing a normal October slowdown. To that I would have to reply, "Slowdown from what?" You have to experience an increase to have a slowdown.

Willis also suggests that the media has potential home buyers spooked about looking into getting a loan:

I also spoke to a lender with a major company in the home mortgage business. It was confirmed to me that money was available to lend, but no applications had been received in the last several days. Apparently, all of the recent news reports indicating a tightening credit policy have been felt in the mortgage industry. If you can meet the increasing standards to secure a home loan, money is available.

Nationally, from what I have been reading, it sounds like a lot more people are going to default on their mortgages before this mess is over.... assuming the local trend is like the national trend, I'd have to imagine that you will see more homes come on the market, and more price drops.

But I'm not the expert, and we apparently have a very active online Realtor community, so hopefully we see some more debate in the comment section. Maybe someone could also explain to me why the word "Realtor" is required to be capitalized.