Who are the real contenders for the 1st District seat?

In case you missed my column last week, the field of likely candidates for the 1st District City Council seat -- soon to become available when Councilwoman Bonnie Lowenthal takes office in the state Assembly next month -- has grown.

Now, five people have said they will run or are considering running for Lowenthal's position representing neighborhoods north and west of Downtown.

So, who should we be watching? Though it's early in the race -- heck, the race hasn't even started yet and the runners are still warming up -- a couple potential candidates stand out.

Just to be clear, I am by no means endorsing any candidate. This is just an objective analysis of the field so far.

• One obvious contender is Evan Braude, an attorney and president of the Long Beach Historical Society who represented the 1st District from 1986 to 1994. He has the political experience, local connections and of course, he is in a 20-year relationship with Lowenthal, which I would imagine ought to get him her endorsement. Because term limits were enacted during his second term, Braude can still serve out the remaining two years of Lowenthal's term and serve one more four-year term. Braude has only said he is considering running, not that he will for certain.
• Then there's Robert Garcia, the president of the North Pine Neighborhood Alliance who professionally has moved up through the Long Beach City College ranks. Formerly the college's director of media and public relations, Garcia recently was named the interim dean of student affairs. Garcia has been very visible in the community and seems well-positioned to build support, though like Braude, he hasn't officially announced his candidacy.

Three other candidates appear less politically connected and may have a harder time getting their campaigns off the ground, but each has his own advantages.

• Last week I reported that the Rev. Misi Tagaloa of the Second Samoan Congregational Church is running for 1st District as well, and though he hasn't been involved in local politics, I imagine having a sanctuary full of backers and possible campaign volunteers will give him the manpower to spread his message -- the political one, not the spiritual one.

Two other announced candidates have a clear disadvantage -- when they announced their intent to run, they weren't actually 1st District residents yet, though both said they intend to move there from their 2nd District homes.

• One is Bill Grisolia, a homeless advocate, musician, former restaurant owner who ran for the 37th Congressional District last year against about a dozen candidates in a race that went to now-Congresswoman Laura Richardson. Grisolia didn't fare particularly well in that race, but at least it gave him some campaign experience.
• The final candidate is Harvey Cochran, whose only real qualification for the 1st District seat is that the gadfly hasn't missed a council meeting in almost two years. He usually makes comments to the council on several issues, eating up anywhere from 20 to 30 minutes of meeting time, often belaboring the point and annoying both Mayor Bob Foster and members of the audience. But his comments also often exhibit a deep knowledge of Long Beach history and city policies. Of course, Cochran too must move into the 1st District, and his admitted mental disability -- he is bipolar and occasionally can be heard talking to himself at council meetings -- may turn off voters.

What do you think, my good blog readers? Who will be a frontrunner in this race? And do you know of anyone else out there considering a run for the 1st District?