Public Eye

Because there will be a runoff it's going to cost $200,000 to win the next mayoral race. That fact drives the decision making.

My view is Bogaard will not step aside and trust Pasadena to anyone else unless he has 1) a candidate he supports that 2) has the ability to raise $200,000 and 3) can't be beat with city employee union money.

Madison has the money but the Mayor isn't a fan. Holden's only role will be as a spoiler and he has no chance ever to win. The Mayor likes McAustin but like Madison (and unlike Holden) McAustin would have to give up her council seat to run. Gordo also wouldn't have to give up his seat to run and could probably raise a bunch of union money but he is very limited in his time and can't really do the job.

Who does the Mayor like who also doesn't have to give up his seat to run and can raise the $200,000? Who already beat the City unions who shoveled money and support to his opponent?

Terry Tornek.

Larry, you should consider running for Mayor.

You have name recognition.

Due to all of your socializing with the movers and shakers in town, you inevitably have numerous connections whom could assist you in fundraising.

All of your theories about solving problems which fit neatly into your 700 word columns---well, you could put them to use in the real world.

You could make improving Pasadena's public schools your number one priority.
And the fact that you didn't want your daughter attending Pasadena's public schools could be used in your favor---it is evidence that you recognize how awful the schools are.

Holden - doesn't have to give up seat to run, union supported but weakened in his ability to raise funds with his father out of office in Los Angeles. With Pasadena's Black population declining Holden won't even make the runoff unless the white vote gets split three ways. Spoiler with no chance at ultimate victory.

Robinson - who?

Gordo - Doesn't have to give up seat to run. Ambitious, increasingly polished but he has young children. Eye on the Assembly post-Portantino...would not be good for his reputation to run for Mayor and lose. He won't risk his chance for an Assembly seat. He won't run.

McAustin - has to give up seat to run with no guarantee of victory. Appears to like her council seat just fine. She won't run.

Haderlein - done with city politics and will not run for re-election in 2011.

Madison - would have to give up his council seat to run. Looks in the mirror and sees a Senator but time and circumstances have gotten away from him. Friend of Adam Schiff and eyes that congressional seat. If elected Pasadena Mayor he would be in a great spot to take it if Schiff runs for higher office however Schiff's young children live in D.C. and it seems Schiff is perfectly happy being a congressman and isn't doing anything to increase his statewide profile. Schiff won't move which means Madison has no higher office incentive to be Mayor...plus he would still have to beat multiple strong candidates (Carol Liu and/or Portantino) in aDemocratic primary...hard to do. Madison makes too much money to give it up to become a lowly Assembly member. However, Madison knows he will have the money advantage in a Mayoral race because of hs own money and the money he can raise from unions (Madison is the biggest union toady on the council)...Ego involved...unpredictable...Madison might think "why not"...if he runs he will run a serious campaign using serious professionals...he will make the runoff.

Tornek - doesn't have to give up his seat to run. As an ardent neighborhood protectionist Tornek has strong support in Madison's own District 6 so he can cut into Madison's base. Essentially only Tornek could beat Madison at this point.

Madison and Tornek go into a runoff and they fight to a draw everywhere other than the Northwest.

The race is won or lost in the Northwest...and in the end the Northwest will go for Tornek.

I'll give you 2 darkhorse longshots who are not on the council. Robin Salzer. He almost pulled off the biggest political upset in 30+ years in the 2007 District 1 council race and though he lost came out of it better than he was going into it. He is now very well known and liked and has a reputation for inclusiveness and getting things done. He would do very well in District 4, his restaurants district, would come in 2nd or 3rd in District 6, his district, because Ann-Marie Villicana still has many friends and connections in the district despite the WPRA and he would take the entire Northwest where he is like a rock star if Holden doesn't run. I've seen him walk into the Jackie Robinson Center and it's like Bill Clinton just walked in. He has the money, Holden's union ties, the charisma and is a proven vote getter to make a runoff. His key would be coming in 1st in 4, 1st in 1 & 3 and 5 if Gordo sits it out and 3rd in 6. Long shot, Yes. Possible, Yes. Nobody will out work him and nobody is better at the door than Robin. He is also semi-retired, a registered Independent and would have a strong grassroots machine behind him.

Marilyn Buchanan is my other darkhorse for a few different reasons. Like Robin she is extremely wealthly and has strong name recognition. She knows all of the ins and outs of City Hall especially the Planning Commission and Department. Marilyn has been a strong leader in the development of Old Pasadena and like Robin would get money and incredible support from the business community. She is a repected longtime board member of the Pasadena Chamber of Commerce. Marilyn would also garner support from womens groups such as the 50/50 Coalition. What Marilyn brings to the table first and foremost is her work ethic and considerable outreach to friends, donors and like Robin, the ability to put together a strong grass roots effort.

Richard Riordon in LA, Bob Lanier in Houston, Mike Bloomberg in NY, Kevin Johnson in Sacramento and Dave Bing in Detroit. None of the above had any political experience before they were elected to the Mayorships of their respective cities. They had money and well known names, spoke of common sense and were real. That is what I see in Robin Salzer and Marilyn Buchanan. Bill Bogaard has set the bar high for the next Mayor. None of the sitting council members has the time to spend being an effective Mayor as do Robin and Marilyn. Tornek? It's possible but there would be a runoff and he would only have about 2 yrs of council experience over Robin and Marilyn. It is about time that the city has a leader with a business background to work us through these difficult economic times using experience and common sense. This may all sound a bit radical but it also seems to make a lot of sense. Both of these names have come up favorably in future council and Mayor election discussions.

What "Pasadena of the Future" failed to consider was the Bill Thomson factor. I've been a District 6 voter since the days of Kicker McKinney and have heard from some who should know that Bill Thomson is considering a run if Bill Bogaard retires. That throws the entire election into a different scenario. Thomson would get more votes in 6 than both Tornek and Madison combined because of his tenure in the city. And Salzer would be a spoiler if he ran but I doubt he will. After his last election he is better suited for District 6 and seems to have a good amount of support there. Talk is that he may even run against Madison if Steve runs again. I can also see Marilyn Buchanan looking at 6 as well. In my view neither is ready for a mayors run but could without question rock the boat and end up as strong spoilers. Gene Masuda in 4?
There has to be someone else to look at. Same goes for District 1. I'd like to see Salzer run against Robinson again. The was a hell of a race. I don't think it would a blood bath again and Salzer could probably run away with it if he's still in the district. Back to Thomson. If he runs he wins in a Thomson v/s Holden contest. If Holden sits out while waiting for the Assembly seat to open then it's Thomson v/s anybody. 2011 will be hotter than 2007 if all the above mentioned players are in it.