Finally, some political commentary: Larry McMurtry, winning Best Adapted Screenplay for “Brokeback Mountain,” championed “the culture of the book, which we mustn’t lose.” Like they’re California condors or something.

Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco won the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay for “Crash.” A nervous speech about hammers and mirrors, which I took as a concession that the film lacks what some might call subtlety.

So Best Picture, if what the prognosticators earlier in the evening weren’t just blowing smoke out their backsides, is still a tossup.