More oddsmaking for the Reign.

In today’s editions of the Sun and Daily Bulletin, I explained that the Reign’s chances of finishing their three-game series in Las Vegas with a better point total than the Wranglers is five in 20, or 25 percent. Click here for the full story.

Here’s how each secnario breaks down:

W

OW

L

OL

Reign pts

Vegas pts

3

0

0

0

>76

72

2

1

0

0

>76

75

2

0

1

0

74

>74

2

0

0

1

>75

74

1

1

1

0

74

>75

1

0

1

1

73

>76

1

1

0

1

75

>75

1

2

0

0

>76

74

1

0

2

0

72

>76

1

0

0

2

74

>74

0

1

1

1

73

>77

0

2

0

1

75

>76

0

0

2

1

71

>78

0

0

1

2

72

>78

0

1

2

0

72

>77

0

1

0

2

74

>77

0

2

1

0

74

>76

0

3

0

0

>76

75

0

0

3

0

70

>78

0

0

0

3

75

>78

 

 

The four columns on the left represent all the possible outcomes for the Reign: regulation win, overtime/shootout win, regulation loss, overtime/shootout loss. The two columns on the right represent the resulting standings points for the Reign and the Wranglers. The > points to which team earns the playoff berth.

Because the Utah Grizzlies beat the Victoria Salmon Kings in regulation last night, the Salmon Kings are tied in the National Conference standings with Las Vegas at 72 points. That means no matter what happens tonight, the Reign cannot be eliminated from the playoffs (nor can they clinch a playoff berth).

The Salmon Kings have played 70 games, one more than the Reign and Wranglers. Like Las Vegas, they hold any tiebreaker with the Reign, meaning that the Reign will need more points than either Las Vegas or Victoria in order to clinch a playoff berth. Also like Las Vegas, they probably only need two points to clinch, but three would be nice.

The top five teams in the conference have (finally) clinched. Four teams (Bakersfield, Utah, Stockton and Alaksa) clinched yesterday, which has to be a record of some sort. Now just the Reign, Wranglers and Salmon Kings are left fighting for two playoff berths.

These are the odds. After tonight, you’ll be able to eliminate some possibilities from the equation (and you’ll be able to double-check my math … corrections welcome here!)

This entry was posted in Ontario Reign/ECHL and tagged , by J.P. Hoornstra. Bookmark the permalink.

About J.P. Hoornstra

J.P. Hoornstra covers the Dodgers, Angels and Major League Baseball for the Los Angeles Daily News, Long Beach Press-Telegram, Torrance Daily Breeze, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, Pasadena Star-News, San Bernardino Sun, Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, Whittier Daily News and Redlands Daily Facts. Before taking the beat in 2012, J.P. covered the NHL for four years. UCLA gave him a degree once upon a time; when he graduated on schedule, he missed getting Arnold Schwarzenegger's autograph on his diploma by five months.