March 2009 Archives

Sunday Elite 8 predictions

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Went 2-0 today, much to my dismay since the Pitt loss pretty much took me out of a high-money pool I was leading. Hopefully I'll go zero for two today if you catch my drift.

Midwest Regional Final
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Louisville
The Spartans pulled out their bag of tricks to get past defending-champion Kansas on Friday, as point guard Kalin Lucas made a tough and-1 leaner to break a 62-62 tie. If Michigan State hopes to pull the upset, Lucas will have to have a big game, as point guard is one of the few positions that the Spartans have a personnel advantage over the Cardinals.
MSU will also have to slow the Louisville press-and-run attack quite a bit. The Cardinals played their best game of the tournament - and perhaps the best game of any team in the tourney - in killing Arizona 103-64. They are deep, quick, talented and motivated. If they force MSU into turnovers - an occasional bugaboo for the Spartans - the Cards win this going away.
Pick: Louisville

South Regional Final
No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Just in case anyone was wondering if Blake Griffin was worthy of being the No. 1 pick in this summer's NBA Draft, Griffin has gone for roughly 30 points per game in his first three games. He's going to have to continue that type of production against the Tar Heels, who can score against and with anyone in the nation.
However, the key may be how the Griffins - Blake and older brother Taylor - deal with Hansbrough inside. They have the athletic advantage over the bullish Tar Heel senior and if they can frustrate him, they can keep UNC based on the perimeter. That, plus big performances from guards Willie Warren and Tony Crocker, would give the Sooners a chance. But I don't see it.
Pick: North Carolina

Saturday Elite 8 predictions

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Will we have four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four for the second straight year? The way this tourney has gone, I wouldn't doubt it. But let's see.

West Regional
No. 3 Missouri vs. No. 1 Connecticut
The Tigers opened some eyes Thursday, running and gunning past Memphis while putting up over 100 points in the process. After that performance, which saw Mizzou up by as many as 24 points in the second half, confidence should be high.
But Missouri has never played in a Final Four. And UConn might be playing the most consistent basketball in the tournament to date. Expect Missouri to try to get the Huskies out of their game through the full-court press, but the Tigers will be hard-pressed to contain 7-foot-3 UConn center Hasheem Thabeet. Their best bet would be to get Thabeet in foul trouble and even the odds. Otherwise, the Huskies should win this convincingly.
Pick: Connecticut

East Regional
No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh
Pitt may be the No. 1 seed, but the Wildcats seem to be gathering most of the buzz going into this game. That makes a lot of sense, as Villanova has just wasted Duke and UCLA while the Panthers seem to be ekeing out victories over everyone they play. If you go by how each team is playing, Villanova should be OK.
A couple things could factor in Pittsburgh's favor though. If DeJuan Blair can stay out of foul trouble, he provides a space-eating low-post scoring threat that Villanova has no real counter for. And perhaps like Louisville (which struggled at times in its first two games before destroying Arizona Friday), perhaps the Panthers have a big game in them. They've gotten big individual games from Blair (E. Tenn State), Sam Young (Okla. State) and Levance Fields (Xavier). They need a combo to win this game.
Pick: Villanova

South Region predictions

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Lots of intrigue in this region, between title favorite North Carolina, Blake Griffin and Oklahoma, the overtime-heavy squad of Syracuse and an experienced Gonzaga squad. Fun stuff if you ask me.

No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 North Carolina
The Bulldogs might be one of the more tournament-experienced teams in the field, but they needed Jeremy Pargo to do his best impersonation of Tyus Edney to survive Western Kentucky and make this round. However, Gonzaga is tough being long, athletic Austin Daye, sharpshooter Matt Bouldin and the speedy Pargo.
North Carolina's fortunes are based on how much defense it wants to play. The Tar Heels can score any day of the week, especially with Ty Lawson looking good, but their defensive intensity wanes and leaves them vulnerable during the course of 40 minutes. I'd expect Gonzaga to exploit this and even take a lead into the final 10 minutes before succumbing to UNC's abundance of talent.
Pick: North Carolina

No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
This might be the toughest game to call in the Sweet 16. On one hand you have a Syracuse team that can score in a variety of ways - off the drive (Jonny Flynn), on the catch and shoot (Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins) and inside (Paul Harris and Arinze Onuaku). Add in a tough matchup 2-3 zone and the Orange are tough.
Oklahoma, however, has the most dominant player of the tournament in sophomore Blake Griffin. Griffin is a physical specimen and can eat up the Orange down low. However, the Sooner guards have to hit 3s to loosen up the Syracuse zone so they can drive with Willie Warren and hook up Griffin in the post. That's easier said than done though. I like Syracuse's overall balance to win out here.
Pick: Syracuse

Midwest Region predictions

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I went three for four in my predictions on Thursday, which I'll take every day of the week. Let's see if we can't go perfect today.

No. 12 Arizona vs. No. 1 Louisville
The Wildcats qualify as a Cinderella this year, though its a pretty big stretch to call Arizona an underdog. This "Cinderella" has three potential NBA players in Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger and Nic Wise and have the longest streak of consecutive tournaments made at 25. Many people rued Arizona's inclusion into the field this year, but they seem to have risen to the challenge.
Can Arizona keep its roll on. The Cardinals have struggled a bit in the tournament, taking more than a half to break away from play-in game winner Morehead State and having to fend off Siena late. Louisville hasn't played its best, but its depth and athleticism will get it through to Sunday.
Pick: Louisville

No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 2 Michigan State
This is a rematch of a January matchup in East Lansing won convincingly by the Spartans. It might be harder for Michigan State this time around, as the defending champion Jayhawks looked impressive in outscoring North Dakota State and subduing Dayton. Sophomore center Cole Aldrich has been dominant thus far, though he'll be matched up with a Michigan State team with a lot of big men, though only Goran Suton is a scoring threat.
The big key to the game is how Kansas handles the penetration of Kalin Lucas and if Michigan State can get production from athletic wings Raymar Morgan, Durrell Summers and Chris Allen. That happens, the Spartans cruise. If not, MSU struggles like it did against USC. I think Sparty has enough to move on.
Pick: Michigan State

East Region predictions

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We'll move our focus along to the East Region, which went pretty much to form during the first two rounds. However, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a little seed variation here.

No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh
Xavier probably was the most overlooked No. 4 seed coming into the tournament, but the Musketeers proved their chops pretty nicely during the opening weekend, running past Portland State in the first round while toughing out Wisconsin in the second.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has looked vulnerable, as No. 16 seed East Tennessee State pushed them late, as did No. 8 Oklahoma State. The Panthers have also never beaten a team seeded higher than fourth in program history. Will the Panthers break that string? I'm going to go with yes.
Pick: Pittsburgh

No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 2 Duke
For a while there, it looked like my pick of Villanova as a team to watch out was going to go poof in the wind, as the Wildcats were down 14 points in the second half to No. 14-seeded American. However, Villanova righted the ship to cruise past the Eagles and added a rout over UCLA in the second round for good measure.
Duke also looked pretty decent in its two wins over Binghamton and Texas, holding off a charge from a talented Longhorn team. This should be an interesting matchup, as both teams are talented on the perimeter with a wide array of options. However, I think the game could come down to how the big men - Dante Cunningham of Villanova and Kyle Singler of Duke - match up. I kind of like the Wildcats to pull a mild upset here.
Pick: Villanova

West Regional predictions

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After a relatively successful first round of predictions, I'm going to make a stab at it again. It will be a little more conventional this time around, as I'll be going with straight-up predictions from here on out.

No. 5 Purdue at No. 1 Connecticut
You never know how motivated the Huskies will be from game to game, but if the first two games are any indication, UConn is taking the tournament seriously. Sportsmanship was a bit of an issue in the Chattanooga game, but the Huskies were impressive in trouncing Texas A&M.
Purdue, on the other hand, has won its two games in a variety of ways, subduing Northern Iowa in a half-court, possession game while outlasting Washington in a back-and-forth, fast-paced 76-74 donnybrook. Purdue will give the Huskies a game, but UConn is on a roll now.
Pick: Connecticut.

No. 3 Missouri at No. 2 Memphis
This game should be a fun one. Missouri's full-court press, "40 Minutes of Hell" offense can erupt at any time and the Tigers have a bevy of scoring threats led by forward DeMarre Carroll. Memphis, meanwhile, might have the most athletic team in college basketball.
The key to this game will be Memphis' outside shooting. The Tigers have been torrid from 3-point range in their first two games, with Roburt Sallie going for 10 3-pointers against Cal State Northridge and Doneal Mack leading the rout of Maryland. If that continues, then bye, bye Missouri.
Pick: Memphis

Rice joins Miller staff

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Former Eisenhower High School football coach John Rice, who resigned in December after three years coaching the Eagles, has found a home on Jeff Steinberg's staff at Miller, joining the staff as a defensive assistant.

"Jeff and I have talked in the past about being on the same staff together if the opportunity presented itself and it was something we were both interested in," Rice said. "He's done a great job of building that program and I'm happy to be a part of it."

Rice, who has served as a defensive coordinator in previous coaching stops, has worked with Steinberg before, albeit briefly. Rice assisted the Miller defensive staff when Steinberg coached the San Bernardino All-Stars in the 2008 Inland Empire All-Star football classic.

South Region Breakdown

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The best is saved for last - at least when I let bias leak into my opinion. Let's go down South.

Overall theme:
Is Ty Lawson healthy? All year North Carolina has been regarded as the odds-on favorite to win the national championship, with Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Deon Thompson expected to grab a title before (presumably) going to the NBA. Even when the the top-seeded Tar Heels stubbed their toe, it was generally theorized that they'd be the team to beat.

However, Lawson sprained the big toe on his right foot, keeping him out of the ACC tournament and almost assuredly making him less than full strength for the NCAA Tournament. Who wins this region, and perhaps the national title, might be decided on how Lawson's toe holds up.

Watch out for: Syracuse
Typically I'd see a team like the Orange - a team that played a combined seven overtimes in the Big East Tournament before losing in the final - and declare that they shot their wad emotionally and physically. I definitely would have said that if Syracuse had won the Big East tourney. But their loss to Louisville leaves some unfinished business.

And No. 3 Syracuse has the personnel and scheme to take care of business. Sophomore point guard Jonny Flynn is extremely explosive, Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf can fill it up from outside while Paul Harris and Arinze Onuaku can score in the paint. Add in their always tough matchup zone and the recent flakiness of No. 2 Oklahoma and the Orange could cruise to the elite 8.

Stay away from: Illinois
The No. 5 Illini were a pretty good story in the Big Ten this year, as they emerged from a rare losing season to finish in a second-place tie in the conference. Illinois plays a tough, matchup defense that yields very few points and a lot of confusion. But Illinois comes into the tournament hurting, as senior point guard and floor leader Chester Frazier is out with a wrist injury.

Frazier's defense will be missed, but his ability to find the open man in Illinois' sometimes stagnant offense might be missed more. With No. 12 Western Kentucky, which made it to the Sweet 16 with the exact same seed last year, appearing in the first round, odds are that the Illini's return to the tournament will be a short one.

High risk, high reward: Michigan
You knew I was going to throw these guys in here somewhere, as the No. 10 Wolverines are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998. But personal loyalties aside, the Wolverines have a style that could get them on a roll of upsets - or send them to a quick, painful defeat by No. 7 Clemson in the first round.

Michigan coach John Beilein has spun magic in the tourney before, taking a No. 7-seeded West Virginia team to the Elite 8 in 2005 and a No. 6-seed Mountaineer team to the Sweet 16 a year later. The Wolverines are predicated on a funky 1-3-1 zone and a propensity for the 3-point shot. When the 3 is falling, Michigan can assert its pace and beat anyone - as evidence by wins over Duke, UCLA, Purdue and Illinois. When its not, the Wolverines - even with star guard Manny Harris - can look ugly.

Upset special: No. 11 Temple over No. 6 Arizona State, first round
Both of these teams have players that can carry a team just through scoring in Dionte Christmas (Temple) and James Hardin (Arizona State). They both have master strategists as coaches in Fran Dunphy (Temple) and Herb Sendek (Arizona State). It should be an interesting chess match and one of the better first-round games to watch.

I'm picking Temple here because, quite frankly, Temple is playing better right now. The Owls surged at the end of the year to pick up their second straight Atlantic 10 title while the Sun Devils have been prone to lapses in concentration. If another one of those happens, ASU won't be in the tourney long.

Lead-pipe lock: Mid-major powers will have fun...till Carolina takes them out.
Two of the premier "mid-major" programs of the past decade are present in this region. No. 9 Butler plays a talented, but young and somewhat struggling, No. 8 LSU team in the first round. The Bulldogs' tournament savvy should rule the day in that matchup, but they don't have the guns to take down the Tar Heels in the second round.

No. 4 Gonzaga also has its program humming and got hot after a tough start to grab its usual spot as a high seed in the tournament. The Bulldogs should make quick work of No. 13 Akron - which is likely overseeded - and should have the advantage over the Western Kentucky-Illinois winner as well. But Carolina in the Sweet 16 will be the death of the Zags as well.

East Region breakdown

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Today's version of my bracket breakdown goes into the East and South. I wish I had more to introduce, but I don't. Sue me.

Overall theme:
Physicality vs. free-flowing offense. This region brings some teams that like to throw down. No. 1 seed Pittsburgh, with bruising forward DeJuan Blair, will elbow you in the face and smack you down with some brass knuckles. No. 12 Wisconsin is fortunate to get to the 60-point mark but has a tendency to hold its opponents below that number. No. 6 UCLA has been to three straight Final Fours thanks to lockdown defense and No. 7 Texas likes to bang with Damion James, Gary Johnson and 295-pound Dexter Pittman.

On the other end of the spectrum, No. 2 Duke shoots threes all day and has junior Gerald Henderson slash to the bucket, No. 3 Villanova has a bevy of guards named Corey and talented junior point Scottie Reynolds while No. 5 Florida State has a dynamic scorer in senior Toney Douglas. None of those teams have much of a post presence, so it will be interesting to see how they match up with the bruisers, and vice versa.

Watch out for: Villanova
The Wildcats have perhaps the best setup of any team in the tournament during the first two rounds, as they get to play in their hometown of Philadelphia in an arena (The Wachovia Center) where they host games from time to time. How Nova got that prime setup is beyond me, but it allows them a nice passage into the Sweet 16.

From that point on, the Wildcats will likely have a No. 2-seeded Duke that they match up with athletically and might even be superior to inside thanks to Dante Cunningham. Then they'd have a good shot at Big East rival Pittsburgh. Jay Wright has coached teams with less talent and less diversity to the Sweet 16, so there's no reason Villanova can't make a run.

Stay away from: UCLA
The Bruins have had a ton of success in the tournament recently, making it to the Final Four three years in a row. But No. 6 UCLA hasn't been able to turn it on for an extended period of time - either falling into shooting lapses or defensive lapses. It hasn't found a replacement for Kevin Love in the post and freshman guard Jrue Holiday hasn't been the scoring threat that the Bruins expected him to be.

Add that in with a tough No. 11 VCU team that knocked out Duke in the first round two years ago and a virtual road game with Villanova if it survives that and it's foolish to be taking UCLA anywhere.

High risk, high reward: Florida State
The No. 5 Seminoles have two things that typically make for good tournament teams - lots of athleticism and a go-to scorer in Douglas. Douglas averages over 20 points per game and has the complete offensive package - allowing him to take over games and giving the Seminoles an ability to take out any team in the bracket - even No. 1 Pittsburgh - who they'd meet in the Sweet 16 more than likely.

With that being said, No. 12 Wisconsin is a terrible matchup for them in the first round. The Badgers are very adept at taking away a team's best offensive option and forcing its opposition to play at a slow pace. If FSU is sucked into that, it could be bye, bye Noles.

Upset special: No. 12 Wisconsin over No. 5 Florida State, first round
Yes, its kind of a copout after the previous category, but it was either this or VCU over UCLA. Expounding on what I was saying about Florida State, if Wisconsin can take away Douglas, there's no other Seminole that averages double-figure points. Wisconsin has good guard play in Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon and several bigs that can come at the Seminoles in waves. The last time Florida State played a slow-paced Big Ten team it was whipped 73-59 to Northwestern in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. I wouldn't be shocked to see that happen again.

Lead-pipe lock: Some team is getting a monkey off its back
That team will likely be top-seeded Pittsburgh - which has fallen in the Sweet 16 four times since 2002 and has never beaten a team seeded No. 5 or higher in its history. The Panthers set up like Kansas did last year - a talented, well-rounded team with a good coach that has had issues getting over the hump. Don't be surprised if Pitt wins it all.

Of course, Duke might have something to say about it. Say what you will about Coach K and his three titles, but barring a 2004 run to the Final Four, Duke has been fairly ordinary in the tournament in the 2000s, crapping out in the Sweet 16 six times and losing in the first and second round, respectively, the last two seasons. The Blue Devils did win the ACC tourney title though, perhaps serving as a sign of better things to come.

West Regional breakdown

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Now to the West Region, which will have its regional finals held in Glendale, Arizona. It will also have some new faces near the top of the regional as well.

Overall theme:
This region will be about putting up or shutting up. The slotting of Connecticut as a top seed was pretty controversial, as the Huskies were the third Big East team to get a No. 1 seed. UConn lost in the first round of the Big East Tournament (albeit in six overtimes) and hasn't won a postseason game - conference tournament or NCAA tournament - since beating Washington in the Sweet 16 three years ago. The Huskies have something to prove.

No. 2 Memphis, who feels that it should have been the top seed, also has a chip on its shoulder. Not only do the Tigers have to deal with the stigma of being from the weak Conference USA, but they also have to deal with their collapse at the free-throw line late in last year's title game that cost them a ring. So if Memphis and UConn make it to the regional final, look out.

Watch out for: Purdue
The No. 5 Boilermakers have been up and down this season, as they were just as capable of losing to Northwestern at home as they were of whipping Big Ten champion Michigan State by 18 points - both things they "accomplished" this year. The volatility that Purdue showed was explained pretty simply - they just haven't been able to stay healthy. Until now.

The Boilermakers were finally at full strength during the Big Ten tournament, with star sophomore Robbie Hummel and defensive sparkplug Chris Kramer finally 100 percent. Not coincidentally, Purdue won the tournament. They have a manageable No. 12 seed in Northern Iowa and can match up physically with No. 4 Washington. They also have the discipline and shooting capability to mess with No. 1 UConn as well.

Stay away from: California
This category could go to a host of teams, No. 13 Mississippi State (the SEC tourney champion - unlikely tourney champions tend to flame out early in the tournament) and No. 4 Washington (struggled a bit down the stretch), or No. 6 Marquette (who I'll address later) but I went with the Golden Bears.

It's tempting to pick a No. 7 seed to win a couple rounds, but Cal is not the one to pick. While the Golden Bears were surprising under first-year coach Mike Montgomery, they faltered a bit down the stretch and are matched up with a No. 10 Maryland team and star guard Greivis Vasquez. Forget about picking Cal to the second round, much less anywhere further.

High risk, high reward: Missouri
I guess its a little weird to have a third seed in this position, but this category has to do with the Tigers' Final Four chances. While UConn and Memphis are getting all of the buzz, Missouri has a chance to sneak through the cracks and make it to Detroit. The Big 12 tourney champions employ a high-intensity, full-court pressing attack reminiscent of Arkansas' "40 Minutes of Hell" under Nolan Richardson.

Missouri also has the best assist-to-turnover ratio in the nation and two talented forward in DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons. So where's the risk? The risk is in Missouri's relative inexperience, as it hasn't been to the tourney since 2003, and picking them to the Final Four in a region with two No. 1-seed worthy teams. But a brassy pick here could pay off big time.

Upset special: No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette
Marquette has the scoring ability to hang with anyone in the nation with seniors Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews along with junior Lazar Hayward. But there's one key player missing in senior point guard Dominic James, who broke his foot late in the regular season.

The Eagles, ranked in the top 10 at one point, lost five out of six since James' injury and have been generally off. They had a similar situation two years ago when McNeal went down and fell meekly in the first round to Michigan State. With a Utah State team that has 29 wins staring them in the face, the Eagles look to be in trouble.

Lead-pipe lock: UCLA won't win the region
That might seem like a "No, duh!!" statement, considering that the Bruins aren't even one of the 16 teams in the region, but the West has been UCLA's playground the last three years - as the Bruins have run through on the way to the Final Four each season. But with no UCLA on the docket, teams like Connecticut, Memphis and Missouri can play a little bit more.

Midwest Region breakdown

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It's my favorite time of the year - March Madness. For once my alma mater (Michigan) is actually participating, so I'm even more giddy than ever. As some of you might know, I did a region-by-region breakdown where I point out several things to look for. These are for recreational use only, so if you lose thousands of dollars based on these picks, don't say I didn't warn ya.

Now to the Midwest

Overall theme:
This region is a who's who of college coaching. As you look through this bracket, a few names jump out - Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Bill Self. These three coaches have been to nine Final Fours and have won three championships - with Self getting one with Kansas last year. Two other coaches - West Virginia's Bob Huggins and Ohio State's Thad Matta - have also led teams to the Final Four. If Lute Olson hadn't resigned from Arizona at the beginning of the season, you could add four more Final Fours and one more national title to this group. So sit back and watch these guys in action.

Watch out for: West Virginia
The Mountaineers have consistently outplayed their seed during this decade, starting with their run to the Elite 8 under John Beilein in 2005 and continuing with last year, when the Huggins-led Mountaineers surprised No. 2-seeded Duke in the second round. Seeded sixth this year, West Virginia is in prime position to wreak havoc on brackets again.

The Mountaineers are strong in the frontcourt with DaSean Butler, Alex Ruoff and Devin Ebanks and are fresh off beating then-No. 1 Pittsburgh in the Big East Tournament. They should be able to pound No. 11 Dayton in the first round and have a good shot at No. 3 Kansas in round two. If point guard Joe Mazzulla shows up big like he did against Duke last year, a win in the Sweet 16 over Michigan State isn't that farfetched.

Stay away from: Kansas
Yes, I know the Jayhawks are the defending national championship. Yes, I realize they won the Big 12 regular-season crown. But Kansas, despite the heroics of point guard Sherron Collins and center Cole Aldrich, are a facsimile of what they were last year. They have overachieved quite a bit this year - which is a testament to Self - but they don't have the guns to make another run.

The last time Kansas overachieved was with a freshman-laden team was in 2006, when they lost to No. 13 seed Bradley and a No. 4 seed. I'm not saying that they'll lose to No. 14 North Dakota State in the first round (though it wouldn't shock me in the slightest - the Bison won at Wisconsin and have a star guard in Ben Woodside who averages 22 points per game), but I have West Virginia gobbling up the Jayhawks in round two.

High risk, high reward: Wake Forest
The fourth seed in this region, the Demon Deacons don't present much of a risk on the surface. Wake Forest has athleticism, talent, depth and can score in bunches. If it gets hot, it can run through the region, beating the Utah-Arizona winner in round two, No. 1 Louisville in the Sweet 16 and whoever comes out of the bottom of the bracket in the Elite 8.

However, Wake Forest is also young and untested in the tournament. The Demon Deacons haven't been to the tourney since Chris Paul was playing in Winston-Salem and doesn't have a player with tournament game experience. Add in a first-round matchup with No. 13 Cleveland State - which won at Syracuse in December - and Wake's run could be quite short if it isn't careful.

Upset special: No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah, first round
Arizona is wearing the title of the team that shouldn't be in the tournament, as the talking heads are killing the Wildcats for getting in the field with a 19-13 record, a non-winning Pac-10 record and five losses in their final six games, instead pining for a mid-major darling like St. Mary's or Creighton.

Teams in this situation tend to come into the tourney with a chip on their shoulder. Case it point was Villanova last year - which was criticized heavily and regarded as the last at-large team in. The Wildcats, a No. 12 seed, did work, upsetting Clemson in the first round and making it to the Sweet 16. Arizona has players with elite talent with recently-healthy Jordan Hill, junior swingman Chase Budinger and guard Nic Wise. If they can put it together, they have the raw talent to take out the Utes, and even the Wake-Cleveland State winner.

Lead-pipe lock: That one of the little guys is going to have big fun
This region may have some potential Hall of Fame coaches in the big seeds, but there are some plucky smaller schools here. North Dakota State, in its first year of tourney eligibility after transitioning from Division II, could easily beat Kansas and won't be intimidated by the Jayhawks. Cleveland State, besides beating Syracuse, has a coach with tourney experience, as Gary Waters led Kent State and future San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates to the Elite 8 in 2002.

That doesn't even mention No. 9 Siena, who toppled No. 4 Vanderbilt as a No. 13 seed last year and definitely has the guns to put away No. 8 Ohio State. The Saints could even annoy No. 1 Louisville in the second round if they beat the Buckeyes. Between the Bison, Vikings and Saints, expect one to be playing on the weekend - and perhaps beyond.

Poly wins 67-54

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Colony ran out of gas a bit in the fourth quarter of a physical matchup with Long Beach Poly, as Poly's bench helped it slowly expand the lead in the fourth. The Titans didn't do themselves any favors from the free-throw line, only hitting 7 of 14 foul shots in the final period. Colony also went 6:21 without a field goal at one point in the quarter.

6-0 run has Poly up 7, 5:08 left

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Long Beach Poly's full-court press defense, which forced 35 Colony turnovers during the first three periods, spurred a 6-0 run that has the Jackrabbits up 52-45 with just over 5 minutes left. Both teams have had issues holding the ball against the in-your-face pressure defense that the other employs.

Long Beach Poly ended the third period on a 6-0 run to take a slim 43-40 lead over Colony going into the fourth quarter. It's been a sloppy game filled with turnovers, but the Titans' physical defense has given them a good shot with a quarter to go.

Colony up 4 at half

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Colony continue the spirited play it showed at the end of the first quarter, holding Poly to 10 points in the second period to take a 25-21 lead at the half. Colony is using a similar formula to what Cajon used against the Jackrabbits in the CIF-SS Division I-AA title game last week, keep Poly's interior players from getting going and forcing the Jackrabbits to shoot from the perimeter.

Poly up 13-11 after 1

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After a slow start which saw Colony fall behind 11-4, the Titans have stabilized a bit and now are just down 13-11 going into the second quarter of their girls Division I regional title game.

Ike going to Sacramento

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Naz Richardson's two free throws with 8.1 seconds left started the part, as Eisenhower defeated Los Angeles Loyola 68-62 to become the first boys team from San Bernardino County to ever makde the state championship game. Pretty crazy stuff.

26.1 seconds away

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Eisenhower is up 66-58 and has the ball with 26.1 seconds left against Loyola, guaranteeing itself a berth in the state championship game in Sacramento next weekend barring an apocalyptic collapse. Loyola is in foul mode right now as it tries to keep hope alive.

The scoreboard goes kablooey

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A little delay in the game here, as the Pauley Pavilion scoreboard went out. Looks like they have fixed the problem, but the delay was long enough to allow this insightful writeup. 60-50 Eisenhower, 4:01 left.

And now, the CIF-State people blantantly refuse to run the clock in the correct manner.

Ike increases lead to 10, 4:37 left

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Ike scored the first seven points of the fourth quarter and holds a 60-50 lead with a little under five minutes left. Alex Varner provided a spark, scoring the first four points and assisting on a Bryan Bock 3-pointer that gave Ike the double-digit margin.

Ike up 5 through 3

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Eisenhower High School is eight minutes away from going to its first-ever state championship game, as it holds a 51-46 lead over Los Angeles Loyola. The Eagles led by as many as 11 points, holding the Cubs without a point for four and a half minutes, but two three-point plays by Carl Hoffman and Miles Cartwright brought Loyola within striking distance.

Ike up 40-37, 4:29 left in 3rd

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A layup from Devin Garner with 5:37 left gave the Eagles their current lead. Loyola came out quick, with Carl Hoffman scoring consecutive baskets to give them a 37-36 lead, but has been scoreless for three minutes now. Ike has also ratcheted up the defensive pressure, having now forced 15 Loyola turnovers.

Ike up one at half

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After a frenetic first quarter that saw Loyola take a 24-20 lead, the scoring slowed down quite a bit in period No. 2. The Eagles took the lead with 39 seconds left on a 3-pointer by Bryan Bock.

They also dealt with Carl Hoffman much better. The Loyola bruiser had 14 points and five rebounds in the first quarter alone but was less of a factor in the second, only scoring two points.

Andrew Bock leads a balanced Eagle attack with 8 points, while Keyon Sayles and Kirby Gardner came off the bench to score four points each in the second half and provide Ike with a shot in the arm.

Ike tied at 24, 6:18 left in 2nd

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The Eagles are matched with Los Angeles Loyola in a rematch of their CIF-SS Division II-A championship showdown last week at Honda Center, won by the Eagles 79-73. Ike has overcome a hot start from 6-foot-9 Loyola center Carl Hoffman, who scored 14 points in the first quarter.

Colony wins 76-57

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The Titans are happy. Final stats on Camille Buckley were mindboggling - 30 points and 19 rebounds.

Colony cruising

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No drama at Mater Dei tonight, as Colony has pulled away to a 69-52 lead with 1:24 left in the game. Camille Buckley is possessed, with 30 points and an unofficial 17 rebounds. Te'onna Campbell has 17 points while Jazmyne White has scored all 12 of hers in the second half.

The Titans have outscored the Cougars 34-18 in the second half and are on the verge of another CIF title.

Colony up 10 after 3

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The Titans defense did some work in the third period, holding Canyon Springs to seven points and forcing five Cougar turnovers to take a 51-41 lead. Camille Buckley and Te'onna Campbell continue to cook for Colony, with Buckley at 22 points and 12 rebounds while Campbell has 15 of her own.

Eight minutes separate Colony from a second straight CIF title.

Colony up 1 at half

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The Titans ended the second period on a 10-3 run, edging out to a 35-34 game in a frenetic, tight game. Camille Buckley and Te'onna Campbell are the big players for the Titans, with Buckley compiling 16 points and 11 rebounds and Campbell adding 11 points.

Amber Smith has 20 points to lead Canyon Springs while Tre'shonti Nottingham has six points and five steals. Nottingham also has three fouls, as each team compiled high foul counts in the first half.

15-13 Canyon Springs after 1

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Kind of a scattershot game thus far, with Canyon Springs taking the slight 15-13 lead into the second quarter. Tre'Shonti Nottingham has seven points and four steals to lead the way for the Cougars, while Camille Buckley is ruling the boards for Colony with nine rebounds to go with her eight points.

Canyon Springs takes early lead

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10-7 Canyon Springs with 2:18 left in the first. The Cougars have pestered Colony into four turnovers, including consecutive steals by Tre'shonti Nottingham that turned into baskets. Camille Buckley has four points and five rebounds already for Colony.

Game 2 in the heezy

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After watching Ike defeat Loyola early this afternoon, I killed some hours at the ESPNZone at Disneyland today before venturing back to Mater Dei High School - the scene of Cajon's triumph over Long Beach Poly.

At Mater Dei today is the Division I-A final, pitting No. 1 seed Colony against No. 3 Moreno Valley Canyon Springs. The last time these schools met in a CIF final was in football in 2007, when the Titans rolled in a game marred by multiple personal fouls and police cars on the field to break up brawls. Not good times.

Don't expect an unruly repeat though. Colony, the D3-A champions a year ago, boast 6-foot-2 center Camille Buckley and the White combination of 6-0 swingman Jazmyne White and 5-7 junior guard Haley White.

Canyon Springs has sophomore Sophia Ederaine. Ederaine looks out of place repping the Chris Sabo-like Rec-Specs, but is long and athletic and can cause problems in the post. Her matchup with Buckley is a key to watch.

Tipoff to come in less than three minutes.

Ike wins 79-73

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Eisenhower wins its first CIF title since 2003 with a 79-73 win over Loyola. It was a very well-played game that saw Andrew Bock score 27 of his 29 points in the second half for Ike while Nick Carter hit two clutch 3-pointers in the final minute and a half to swing the game in the Eagles' favor. Bernard Ireland also had 19 points for Ike.

Miles Cartwright scored 33 points in a losing effort for the Cubs, while Ryan Oliver and Carl Hoffman added 19 and 12 points, respectively.

Carter hits 2 quick treys

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Ike's Nick Carter has hit two 3-pointers from the left wing in a span of 30 seconds, giving Ike a 75-71 lead with 54.9 seconds left. Loyola ball.

Loyola 71-69, 1:38 left

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Miles Cartwright just drained two free throws to put the Cubs in the lead in a back-and-forth fourth quarter. Cartwright has a game-high 32 points for Loyola while Andrew Bock leads Ike with 26. Free-throw shooting has been Ike's flaw thus far, as they are 3 of 8 from the charity stripe.

Ike up 55-48 through 3

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And Andrew Bock continues to feel the flow, hitting another 3-pointer as the Eagles built their lead to as many as nine. Bock had 15 in the quarter and has 17 overall. Great quarter for the Eagles, who outscored Loyola 26-15 and neutralized the Cubs' size advantage inside.

Fourth quarter to start.

Bock feeling the flow

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Andrew Bock has awoken suddenly in the third quarter, scoring 12 points in the last four minutes and most recently, assisting Nicholas Carter on a transition layup that has Ike up 52-44 with 1:38 left in the third. The Eagles are on a 17-5 run, with two Bock 3-pointers helping that burst.

39-35 Loyola, 5:53 left in 3rd

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Bernard Ireland has continued his hot play, scoring six quick points for the Eagles. Loyola scored four points in the first 16 seconds of the period, but Ike seems to have weathered that storm. Coming back from a timeout after a nice hustle rebound by Ike's Alex Varner

Loyola up 4 at half

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Loyola's size has been a factor, as 6-9 senior Carl Hoffman scored 10 points and pulled down 4 rebounds against the much-smaller Eagles to help stake Loyola to the 33-29 lead. Ike star point guard Andrew Bock has been very quiet, scoring two points and adding three assists, but the Eagles have gotten a shot in the arm from Bernard Ireland - who has eight points - and Kirby Gardner, who has six points off the bench.

25-23 Loyola, 4:41 left in 2nd

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Right after Bernard Ireland hit a 3 in transition to tie the game for the Eagles, Loyola got a transition bucket of its own from Carl Hoffman on a layup. Ireland leads Ike with 8 points right now.

Loyola 21-16 after 1

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As advertised, the pace of the Loyola-Ike game has been frenetic. It was a quarter of runs, as the Cubs scored the first 5 points, Ike answered with a 12-3 run and Loyola countered with a 13-4 spurt. Miles Cartwright leads all scorers right now, with 11 for Loyola.

Second quarter starting now.

It's about to go down

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Ike and Loyola have just been introduced and we are ready to rumble. And yes, I just ripped off Michael Buffer.

The OC double dip

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Today I get a unique treat - two CIF title games, two genders, two arenas and one county. Yes I'm doing the double-dip of high school basketball fun today, as I am currently on press row of Honda Center waiting for the Division II-A final between Eisenhower and Los Angeles Loyola to start - which should be in about 15-20 minutes. I'll also be back at Mater Dei - site of Cajon's historic 52-44 win over Long Beach Poly last night - to see Colony face Moreno Valley Canyon Springs in the Division I-A girls final at 6:30 tonight.

What I'll do in between games is up for debate, but what is not is the roster contrasts between No. 1-seeded Ike and No. 3 seed Loyola. The Eagles, led by Creighton-bound point guard Andrew Bock, runs small, with their tallest player being 6-foot-4 and most players running in the 6-0 to 6-1 range. The Eagles like to play at a frenetic pace and average nearly 80 points per game.

Loyola, on the other hand, has a Twin Towers situation - boasting 6-10 junior Tony Wroblicky and 6-9 senior Carl Hoffman. Even junior guard Miles Cartwright - the Cubs' leading scorer - runs 6-3.

It'll be an interesting contrast of personnel. Warmups are going on and tipoff will be in roughly 12 minutes.

Cajon gamer with quotes

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The one in the paper is a quoteless, shorter version due to deadlines, but this one can be found at www.sbsun.com/sports as well as here.

Cajon wins

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Darshae Burnside wrapped up Cajon's second straight CIF title in fitting fashion, nailing two free throws and blocking her sixth shot of the game at the end of the 52-44 victory. The victory breaks Poly's 34-game playoff winning streak. Cajon was led by Layshia Clarendon's 28 points.

More to come.

Cajon up 39-27 after 3

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The Cowgirls are continuing to roll, forcing the Jackrabbits to shoot unsuccessfully from the outside en route to the 12-point lead. Layshia Clarendon has 23 points now, including a runner with 8.6 seconds left that put Cajon up 39-27.

Darshae Burnside now has 15 points and four blocked shots to go with her six points, but she committed her fourth foul late in the third. Poly, after starting the quarter strong, didn't score for the final 4:21 of the period.

The Jackrabbits have come out of halftime inspired, closing Cajon's lead to 30-25 with 5:37 left in the third. Thaddesia Southall has scored four of the points for Poly. Cajon called a timeout after Poly's last basket, got a 3-pointer from Maya Darby, which caused Poly to use its own 30-second timeout.

33-25 Cajon, 5:20 left in the third.

30-19 Cajon at the half

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The Cowboys played about as well in the first half as could have been expected, taking an 11-point lead at halftime despite playing all five of its starters for all but 11.9 seconds of the first half.
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Layshia Clarendon has 19 points and three rebounds unofficially while Darshae Burnside has four points, nine rebounds, three blocked shots and two steals. Poly's offense is coming from Ta'Nitra Byrd, who has 14 of Poly's 19 points. Turnovers have been an issue for the Jackrabbits, who have 11.

Stay tuned to see if this upset continues.

Cajon up 8, 2:37 till halftime

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The Cowboy defense has successfully harassed the Jackrabbits, forcing them into 10 turnovers at this juncture. Darshae Burnside also has three blocked shots.

Offensively, Clarendon has 14 points, including a gutty 3-point play at the 4:03 mark that gave Cajon its current 23-15 lead.

Clarendon nails 3 at buzzer

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The senior guard just drilled a 35-footer as the buzzer sounded to end the first quarter, giving Cajon a 16-11 lead. Clarendon has nine points to lead the Cowgirls while Darshae Burnside has two points, five rebounds and two blocked shots unofficially.

Second quarter about to start

11-9 Cajon, 1:12 left

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However, both Clarendon and Burnside have two fouls each at this point. Four Cowgirls have scored, with Clarendon leading the way with four and Maya Darby hitting a 3-pointer. Burnside

Junior Ta'Nitra Byrd has eight of Poly's nine points.

Two quick fouls for Clarendon

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however, Cajon is up 6-0 with 5:07 left in the first quarter and Poly has called timeout.

Clarendon has hit two early jumpers, Poly has two early turnovers and Darshae Burnside has two points, two rebounds and just stuffed Poly's McDonald's All-American forward Monique Oliver on Poly's previous possession.

And the opening tip

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almost kills my computer. Obviously the game has started.

Live from Mater Dei

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I'm here live at the Division I-AA final between Cajon and Long Beach Poly. It was a bit of a harrowing journey and I wouldn't be surprised if my car ends up towed, but I'm here.

6 minutes and counting until game time so I'll be brief. Basically, Poly is Goliath and Cajon is David - if David had two sweet Division I players in guard Layshia Clarendon and center Darshae Burnside in his arsenal. Poly has won three straight large-school state titles, four straight CIF titles (off the top of my head) and 34 playoff games in a row. They boast a McDonald's All-American in 6-foot-3 Monique Oliver.

However, Cajon has won its four playoff games by an average of 34.2 points per game and is playing as well as it has all season. And its no stranger to playoff pressure, having won the Division II-A CIF title a year ago.

I'll keep you updated as the game rolls on.

Telfer raking in the offers

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Rancho Cucamonga tight end Randal Telfer, who already sported offers from Stanford and Tennessee, received another offer tonight, as Michigan's Rivals.com site, TheWolverine.com, has reported that the Wolverines have offered Telfer. Telfer, a 6-foot-4, 215-pound incoming senior, is on the Rivals250 Players to Watch list and was a first-team all-County and all-CIF player for the CIF-SS Central Division champion Cougars last year.

About T.J.

T.J. Berka has been covering sports for The Sun since 2006. As a graduate of the University of Michigan, T.J. know good sports when he sees them - at least he thinks he does.

Email T.J. here

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