Keepin' it Real

I must say that my picks so far have been brutal. If you are using these for anything more than amusement, then stop. Please.

I will press on anyway, just because I'm contractually obligated at this point.

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Arizona
It's the classic matchup between the team on a late-season tear (Philly) against the team that is rallying due to a 'no respect' battle cry (Zona). I've picked against both in both of their games thus far, so I'm probably not the person to ask here. But honestly, can you really see the Cardinals in the Super Bowl? Seriously? I can't either. A Super Bowl victory would cement Donovan McNabb's legacy as a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback and while I'm not ready to call that, I'll take Philly to make it to Tampa.
Philadelphia 28, Arizona 23

Baltimore (+6) at Pittsburgh
To be honest, the best bet in this game is to take the under. The current over/under is 33.5, but with the two best defenses in the NFL, the only way that this game goes over is if the defenses score on their own. With that said, I think the Ravens are being sold short in this game. They are banged up, but the Ravens have been tooth-and-nail with the Steelers in their previous two meetings, losing the last one on a controversial touchdown by Santonio Holmes. I'm getting a 2000 feeling about the Ravens, so I'm calling the upset.
Baltimore 14, Pittsburgh 13

Overall: 149-107-1. Record against spread: 119-135-3.

Posted by TJ Berka at 6:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well, that was a crappy start to the playoffs for me, as I lost the Colts (who I had going to the AFC title game) along with two other games. Moving on and trying to avoid the doughnut.

Baltimore (+3) at Tennessee
The only winner I did get right, the Ravens are looking a lot like they did in 2000 - dominating, big-play defense with a punishing running game and a unspectacular quarterback who avoids the big mistake. I'm tempted to pick them to beat the Titans, as Kerry Collins doesn't quite breed confidence in me. However, I did pick Tennessee to make the Super Bowl, so I can't go back now. I'll hedge my bet and take the points.
Tennessee 16, Baltimore 14

Arizona (+10) at Carolina
The Cardinals looked good for the first time in a month, as their defense shut out Atlanta's running game and made Matt Ryan look like a rookie, which is pretty rare. But putting that type of effort out two weeks in a row - especially against a well-rested, playoff-tested team like the Panthers - is easier said than done. I'm taking the Panthers big here.
Carolina 28, Arizona 13

Philadelphia (+4) at N.Y. Giants
The weather outside could be pretty frightful, as the New York metro area is supposed to be buried in 6-8 inches of snow between now and gametime Sunday. That bodes much better for the Giants, who have a healthy Brandon Jacobs ready to pound. That rest, plus the revenge factor toward an Eagles win at New York in early December, should be enough.
N.Y. Giants 21, Philadelphia 14

San Diego (+6) at Pittsburgh
Ready or not, the Chargers are coming. They proved me wrong against Indy last week and could give the Steelers a hassle this week. Pittsburgh's D is top notch, but Ben Roethlisberger and the offense have struggled to string together touchdowns offensively. I'll take the home team again, with the road team covering.
Pittsburgh 17, San Diego 13

Overall: 148-104-1. Record against spread: 118-132-3.

Posted by TJ Berka at 9:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

I made a nice little comeback last week, but still am guaranteed to finish below .500 for the season. Those are the breaks. We'll see if I can't be somewhat unterrible during the playoffs.

Atlanta (-1) at Arizona
If you took either one of these teams, especially the Falcons, to make the playoffs before the season started you'd be paid off pretty handsomely right about now. However, the NFC West champion Cardinals have been sluggish since winning the NFC West and will be going against Atlanta's bruising rush offense of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. The first playoff game in Arizona (involving the Cardinals at least) will be the last until at least next year.
Atlanta 28, Arizona 21

Indianapolis (-2) at San Diego
The Colts might be the hottest team in the NFL right now, winning nine straight. However, the Chargers aren't that far behind, winning four straight to become the first team in NFL history to make up a three-game deficit to win a division in the final three weeks. In other words, this matchup is two locomotives ready to pulverize each other. The Chargers pulled the upset in Indy last year, but I still don't trust Norv Turner. Going with the Colts here.
Indianapolis 30, San Diego 26

Baltimore (-3.5) at Miami
The Ravens made it here with a rookie quarterback and a great defense, while Miami somehow went from a one-win team to the winners of the AFC East. These teams met in the regular season, with Baltimore romping, and I see much of the same happening in this matchup. Look out for the Ravens as a darkhorse Super Bowl team.
Baltimore 23, Miami 10

Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota
It's pretty unheard of to see all of the home teams as underdogs. It would be equally as unheard of for the road team to win all four wild card games. The home team will get one, and I believe this is the one. The Vikings run the ball and can stop the run, two prerequisties for playoff success. Plus, the Eagles have been up and down all season. After killing Dallas, they are due for a letdown in the Twin Cities.
Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 17

Here's a quickie forecast for the rest of the playoffs.

AFC
Divisional
Tennessee over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
Championship
Tennessee over Indianapolis

NFC
Divisional
N.Y. Giants over Atlanta
Carolina over Minnesota
Championship
Carolina over N.Y. Giants

Super Bowl
Carolina over Tennessee

Overall: 147-101-1. Record against spread: 117-129-3.

Posted by TJ Berka at 2:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)