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De Anza League playoff scenarios

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Its schools may be off the beaten path a bit, but there's been some very good football played in the De Anza League this year. Not coincidentally, there's quite a free-for-all for the league's two guaranteed playoff spots going on.

1. Twentynine Palms (7-2, 4-0): The Wildcats have clinched a playoff berth regardless of how they do Friday against Big Bear. A win seals up an undisputed title and the No. 1 seed out of the league while a loss puts Twentynine into the No. 2 spot by virtue of losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Bears.

2. Big Bear (7-2, 3-1): The Bears would clinch a playoff spot and the No. 1 seed from the league with a victory over Twentynine Palms by virtue of winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. They can also make it with a Desert Hot Springs loss to Desert Mirage. If Big Bear loses, Desert Hot Springs wins and Yucca Valley loses to Shadow Hills, Big Bear would lose out on the No. 2 spot to DSH because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss coupled with DSH and Yucca wins would cause a three-way flip for the No. 2 spot, as each team would be 1-1 against the other two. Either way, the Bears are a cinch to make it as an at-large if they don't snap up one of the two automatic slots.

3. Desert Hot Springs (6-3, 2-2): The Golden Eagles would qualify as the No. 2 team out of the De Anza with a win over Desert Mirage and losses by Big Bear and Yucca Valley by virtue of owning the head-to-head tiebreaker with Big Bear. A loss by Big Bear and a win by Yucca Valley would cause a three-way flip for the last automatic playoff spot. A loss of any kind would eliminate DSH from getting an automatic berth, but the Golden Eagles would be in good shape for an at-large with a 6-4 or 7-3 overall record.

4. Yucca Valley (4-4-1, 2-2): Yucca Valley needs a win, a Desert Hot Springs win and a loss by Big Bear to get into a three-way flip for the last automatic spot. Otherwise, Yucca Valley needs a win of any sort to keep any at-large hopes alive. A loss would certainly eliminate the Trojans from all playoff consideration.

5. Desert Mirage (1-8, 1-3): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

6. Shadow Hills (1-8, 0-4): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

Week 7 predictions

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Starting to get into a groove now, as I had my best week of the season to date.

Cajon at Colton
This has become the de facto championship game in the San Andreas League and for good reason, as the teams have split the last five league titles and have won seven total since 2000. Needless to say, they are at it again, as both are undefeated in league. It's been a weird season for both, as Colton has become almost pass-happy while Cajon has shown off the double-wing. I think this one will be relatively low scoring, with the home team prevailing.
Colton 20, Cajon 10

Redlands at Yucaipa
The Terriers have the unenviable task of having to recover from a devastating Smudge Pot rivalry loss to Redlands East Valley last week. The schedulemaker didn't do Redlands any favors, as they'll have to play a sneaky-good Yucaipa team with an elite playmaker in quarterback Dylan Malone. The Terriers might be ripe for an upset, but I think they'll pull this one out late.
Redlands 23, Yucaipa 19

Colony at Chino
How real is Chino? That's the million-dollar question heading into this one. The Cowboys have gone from a feeble 0-10 team to a 6-0 juggernaut that is straight pile-driving opponents. However, Chino's opponents haven't exactly been SEC caliber to date. Colony's five-game winning streak has flown under the radar a bit, but the defending champs have a chance to make a splash. And I think they will.
Colony 28, Chino 23

Etiwanda at Upland
If they had odds on this game in Vegas (or on bodog.com) I would take the over because this thing is going to be a track meet. The Eagles have an explosive offense led by the leading passer in the county in Larry Cutbirth, who averages 275 yards per game through the air. Problem is that Etiwanda doesn't really stop anyone on defense. That will prove fatal against the Highlanders, which has a balanced offense and a little more defense.
Upland 44, Etiwanda 36

Oak Hills at Victor Valley
Kind of a slow week in the High Desert, as all the league games pit the haves against the have-nots, but this nonleague tilt has some teeth. Oak Hills has won a lot in its first year-and-a-half, piling up 13 wins, but still doesn't have that signature win over a large-school program. Victor Valley started out firing at 5-0 but lost to Silverado last week and wants to avoid a second-half slide. I think Victor will stem the slide and Oak Hills will still be searching.
Victor Valley 34, Oak Hills 26

Damien at Chino Hills
This game is usually a doozy and should be again this year, as the Huskies come in needing a win pretty badly after falling in a tough league-opener to Claremont this week. Damien came into this year having to overcome some massive personnel losses due to graduation but has equipped itself well, matching Chino Hills' 4-2 record. No one backs Bub into a corner though, as I feel the Huskies will come out swinging.
Chino Hills 23, Damien 9

Kaiser at Patriot
The question this week isn't whether or not Kaiser - the No. 1 team in the Sun, the Daily Bulletin, the Eastern Division and city of Fontana polls - will be Patriot tomorrow. It will. The question, er questions, are how bad and will there be a fifth shutout. I'm answering very bad on the first one and yes on the second. Patriot didn't muster a point against Summit last week - no way its scoring on Kaiser unless the Cats get bored.
Kaiser 48, Patriot 0

Twentynine Palms at Desert Hot Springs
The Wildcats have ruled the De Anza League the last three years, taking the league title each and every year. But DSH has been on an uber roll this season, taking out Aquinas and Rim of the World in the nonleague and grabbing a big win at Big Bear this past weekend. Twentynine Palms is playing pretty well, but the Golden Eagles seem to have some mojo going. That's good enough for me.
Desert Hot Springs 28, Twentynine Palms 18

Rubidoux at Rim of the World
Last week saw the return of Rim of the World running back Dillon Pretzinger from a foot injury. Not coincidentally, it also saw the Fighting Scots look more like the juggernaut that I expected them to be before the season. The table is set for Rim to win the inaugural Mountain Valley League title and while Rubidoux is much improved, I see Rim rolling here.
Rim of the World 28, Rubidoux 13

Glendora at Los Osos
With all respect to the Dallas-Minnesota game this past Sunday I feel that this game is the true "Desperation Bowl". Both of these teams, which came into the season with high expectations, are 0-1 in a three-playoff-berth league and an 0-2 mark would be a sure death sentence in a brutal Baseline in a division with zero at-large berths. So who gets to play the role of a despondent Tony Romo? Unless it goes into overtime, I think Glendora will.
Los Osos 35, Glendora 27

Other games of note:
Rancho Cucamonga 56, Alta Loma 6
Aquinas 40, Calvary Murrieta 0
Linfield Christian 21, Ontario Christian 17
Western Christian 24, Arrowhead Christian 16
Redlands East Valley 61, Eisenhower 12
Miller 38, Fontana 6
Big Bear 27, Yucca Valley 25
Ridgecrest Burroughs 34, Barstow 0
Silverado 26, Granite Hills 10
Apple Valley 38, Hesperia 14
Serrano 38, Sultana 7
Banning 28, Citrus Valley 23
Riverside Notre Dame 50, Jurupa Hills 6
Garey 31, Don Lugo 12
Ontario 27, Montclair 16
Arroyo Valley 45, Pacific 0
Carter 21, Rialto 18
San Gorgonio 36, San Bernardino 13
Banning Twin Pines 26, Bloomington Christian 20
Summit 39, Bloomington 10

Last week: 26-5
Overall: 154-57-3

Week 6 picks

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While there have been a couple of leagues that have already started playing, league play will really get going this week. And this is when high school football gets good. I seem to finally be getting into some sort of groove, only dropping five games this week.

Redlands at Redlands East Valley
The battle of the Smudge Pot is always a battle and will be again. Both teams are smarting a bit, Redlands from three straight losses in this rivalry and REV from two consecutive losses where it was outscored 55-17. The Terriers are fresh off a bye week and confident after going 4-0-1 against a tough nonleague schedule and look to have the mojo going in. Which is why I'm going the other way. I think REV will circle the wagons and hoist the Smudge Pot again.
Redlands East Valley 17, Redlands 14

Silverado at Victor Valley
Another crosstown rivalry that should be a doozy, as the Jackrabbits have their best chance in a decade to knock off Silverado. Victor Valley has played well in going 5-0, winning The Bell over Apple Valley for the second straight year, but they haven't faced the schedule Silverado has to date. And the Jackrabbits don't have a win like Silverado's victory over Summit two weeks ago. This is when the Hawks start to turn it on and I think Silverado wins a thriller.
Silverado 30, Victor Valley 28

Rancho Cucamonga at Los Osos
This was the Grizzlies' coming-out party a year ago, as a struggling Los Osos team shocked Rancho, starting a seven-game winning streak that didn't end until the Grizzlies lost to Upland in the Central Division title game. Los Osos isn't struggling this year, sporting a solid 3-2 record, but they are the underdogs to a stout Rancho team led by senior RB Sateki Finau. The Cougars have had two weeks to overcome their loss to Redlands and will prevail tomorrow.
Rancho Cucamonga 26, Los Osos 20

Aquinas at Ontario Christian
The bellwether game of the Christian League is expected to be the same in the new Ambassador League, as this holy war is always one of the must-see games in the county. Aquinas has won the last three and comes in with momentum, having won four in a row after a season-opening loss to Desert Hot Springs. The Knights, meanwhile, have struggled, losing three in a row. They'll get back to winning, but after this week, as I'm going with the Falcons.
Aquinas 34, Ontario Christian 23

Chino Hills at Claremont
The Baseline League has gotten the hype as the toughest league west of the 15, but that title may actually go to the Sierra. And that reason is due in large part to the play of these two teams. A senior-laden Claremont squad has erupted to a 4-1 start behind QB Daniel Kessler, who has thrown for 302 yards per game. The Wolfpack haven't faced a defense nearly as stout or as talented as Chino Hills' though and will be slowed down enough by the Huskies.
Chino Hills 27, Claremont 17

Arroyo Valley at San Gorgonio
The Hawks have been in a holding pattern on offense this year with the travails of quarterback Michael Yearwood, who has missed all but one series due to transfer paperwork and a knee injury. The latter will have him out for this key game, putting the onus on an impressive Arroyo Valley defense to shut down a potent San G attack. The Spartans got a big win last week at Carter and are thirsting at the chance to go on a winning streak. And I think they will.
San Gorgonio 20, Arroyo Valley 14

Serrano at Apple Valley
The Diamondbacks are the king poobah of the Mojave River League and despite having issues in the passing game during the nonleague season, always seem to be ready to roll this time of the year. Apple Valley has done a good job of adjusting to its personnel, going from a power-running option attack to a more balanced attack that has featured senior WR Cavion Flournoy. Serrano has size and experience in the trenches, which will tell the tale in this one.
Serrano 28, Apple Valley 13

Chino at Garey
Two of the surprises of the Mt. Baldy League meet to see who is the most for real. The Cowboys have been devastating offensively under first-year coach Matt McCain, averaging 45 points per game. Garey will be Chino's toughest test to date, as the Vikings possess possibly the best player in the league in senior WR Dominique Williams. But I like the groove Chino is in and look for it to continue tonight.
Chino 35, Garey 24

Bloomington at Norte Vista
This league opener, which I'll be at in a couple hours, could eventually decide the third Sunkist League playoff spot behind Kaiser and Summit. The Bruins have already equaled their win total from last year at 3, though were defeated handily by Paloma Valley last week, while the Braves are looking to recapture the form that brought them 11 wins and a Eastern Division semifinal appearance a year ago. I look for the Braves to do that and win a crucial game.
Norte Vista 23, Bloomington 18

Desert Hot Springs at Big Bear
Saturday afternoon brings a big matchup in the mountains, as both of these teams have taken tremendous steps forward from a year ago. DSH has already knocked off some name county foes, beating Aquinas and Rim of the World, while the Bears have sparkled behind the nifty option work of junior quarterback Zak Planz. The winner here takes a huge step toward ending Twentynine Palms' reign atop the De Anza League and its basically a coin flip. So I'll go with the home team.
Big Bear 35, Desert Hot Springs 32

Other games of note:
Linfield Christian 38, Arrowhead Christian 9
Western Christian 20, Calvary Murrieta 10
Glendora 35, Etiwanda 30
Upland 49, Alta Loma 0
Miller 45, Eisenhower 13
Yucaipa 28, Fontana 12
Twentynine Palms 36, Shadow Hills 10
Yucca Valley 47, Desert Mirage 0
Barstow 16, Granite Hills 14
Oak Hills 30, Sultana 10
Rubidoux 42, Jurupa Hills 6
Rim of the World 35, Citrus Valley 14
Colony 42, Chaffey 10
Ontario 23, Don Lugo 21
Colton 38, San Bernardino 12
Cajon 27, Rialto 14
Carter 54, Pacific 12
Bloomington Christian 20, Fairmont Prep 10
Charter Oak 24, Ayala 17
Kaiser 59, Jurupa Valley 0
Summit 38, Patriot 16
Last week: 21-5
Overall: 128-52-3

De Anza/Freelance playoff breakdown

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This one is pretty much all subjective, as the top two spots in the De Anza League are sealed up, leaving Big Bear, Desert Hot Springs and a freelance upstart to fight for bids.

1) Twentynine Palms (6-4, 4-0): The Wildcats clinched the De Anza League championship and top seed with a victory over Big Bear Saturday.

2) Yucca Valley (2-7, 2-1): The Trojans have clinched the No. 2 spot in the De Anza League, as they own head-to-head tiebreakers over Big Bear and Desert Hot Springs.

3) Big Bear (3-6, 1-2): Have to defeat Desert Hot Springs Friday to have any shot at an at-large bid, as the Bears lose the head-to-head tiebreaker in event of a win and a Yucca Valley loss. Even then, 4-6 might not be good enough to get in.

4) Desert Hot Springs (3-6, 1-2): The Golden Eagles are in the same exact boat as Big Bear, as they need to win to have any shot at an at-large bid. And it still may not be enough.

5) Desert Mirage (3-6, 0-3): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

And the two freelance teams, which are eligible for the East Valley playoff if I'm not mistaken.

1) Oak Hills (7-2) - I really can't see any way the Bulldogs don't make the postseason. Not only do they have a lot of wins, but they have quality wins over teams like Aquinas and Laguna Beach. Can't imagine a scenario where they wouldn't be able to play in the playoffs.

2) Citrus Valley (2-7) - Eliminated from playoff consideration.


De Anza League playoff breakdown

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Mountains, deserts, a lake here and there. The De Anza League has it all, including a playoff breakdown now.

1. Twentynine Palms (7-3, 3-1): The Wildcats have already clinched a playoff spot. Would grab the No. 1 spot in the league with a Big Bear loss and holds the tiebreaker over Yucca Valley by virtue of a win over the Trojans a couple weeks ago. Should Big Bear and Yucca Valley win, a three-way flip to determine the seeding for all three spots would take place.

2. Yucca Valley (5-4, 2-1): Would clinch with a win over Desert Mirage and get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Big Bear loss. A win and a Big Bear win would cause a three-way tie at the top, therefore a coin flip would determine seeding. A loss and a Big Bear win would knock the Trojans down to fourth, where they'd have to sweat out an at-large bid. A loss and a Big Bear loss would cause a three-way flip between Yucca, Big Bear and Desert Mirage for two spots.

3. Big Bear (6-2-1, 2-1): The Bears would clinch a playoff spot with a win over Desert Hot Springs or a Desert Mirage loss. They would grab the No. 1 seed in the league with a win and a Yucca Valley loss by virtue of a victory over Twentynine Palms last week. A win and a Yucca Valley win would cause a three-way flip for seeding. A loss and a Desert Mirage win would cause a three-way flip for the final two spots behind Twentynine Palms, though Big Bear would be a cinch at-large pick if available.

4. Desert Mirage (4-5, 1-2): Desert Mirage would clinch a playoff spot with a win over Yucca Valley and a Big Bear win by virtue of its win over the Trojans. A win and a Big Bear loss would cause a three-way flip for two spots, with Desert Mirage having to sweat out an at-large bid should it come short on the flips. A loss spells elimination in any and all situations more than likely.

5. Desert Hot Springs (3-6, 0-3): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

About T.J.

T.J. Berka has been covering sports for The Sun since 2006. As a graduate of the University of Michigan, T.J. know good sports when he sees them - at least he thinks he does.

Email T.J. here

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