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De Anza League playoff scenarios

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Its schools may be off the beaten path a bit, but there's been some very good football played in the De Anza League this year. Not coincidentally, there's quite a free-for-all for the league's two guaranteed playoff spots going on.

1. Twentynine Palms (7-2, 4-0): The Wildcats have clinched a playoff berth regardless of how they do Friday against Big Bear. A win seals up an undisputed title and the No. 1 seed out of the league while a loss puts Twentynine into the No. 2 spot by virtue of losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Bears.

2. Big Bear (7-2, 3-1): The Bears would clinch a playoff spot and the No. 1 seed from the league with a victory over Twentynine Palms by virtue of winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. They can also make it with a Desert Hot Springs loss to Desert Mirage. If Big Bear loses, Desert Hot Springs wins and Yucca Valley loses to Shadow Hills, Big Bear would lose out on the No. 2 spot to DSH because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss coupled with DSH and Yucca wins would cause a three-way flip for the No. 2 spot, as each team would be 1-1 against the other two. Either way, the Bears are a cinch to make it as an at-large if they don't snap up one of the two automatic slots.

3. Desert Hot Springs (6-3, 2-2): The Golden Eagles would qualify as the No. 2 team out of the De Anza with a win over Desert Mirage and losses by Big Bear and Yucca Valley by virtue of owning the head-to-head tiebreaker with Big Bear. A loss by Big Bear and a win by Yucca Valley would cause a three-way flip for the last automatic playoff spot. A loss of any kind would eliminate DSH from getting an automatic berth, but the Golden Eagles would be in good shape for an at-large with a 6-4 or 7-3 overall record.

4. Yucca Valley (4-4-1, 2-2): Yucca Valley needs a win, a Desert Hot Springs win and a loss by Big Bear to get into a three-way flip for the last automatic spot. Otherwise, Yucca Valley needs a win of any sort to keep any at-large hopes alive. A loss would certainly eliminate the Trojans from all playoff consideration.

5. Desert Mirage (1-8, 1-3): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

6. Shadow Hills (1-8, 0-4): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

De Anza/Freelance playoff breakdown

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This one is pretty much all subjective, as the top two spots in the De Anza League are sealed up, leaving Big Bear, Desert Hot Springs and a freelance upstart to fight for bids.

1) Twentynine Palms (6-4, 4-0): The Wildcats clinched the De Anza League championship and top seed with a victory over Big Bear Saturday.

2) Yucca Valley (2-7, 2-1): The Trojans have clinched the No. 2 spot in the De Anza League, as they own head-to-head tiebreakers over Big Bear and Desert Hot Springs.

3) Big Bear (3-6, 1-2): Have to defeat Desert Hot Springs Friday to have any shot at an at-large bid, as the Bears lose the head-to-head tiebreaker in event of a win and a Yucca Valley loss. Even then, 4-6 might not be good enough to get in.

4) Desert Hot Springs (3-6, 1-2): The Golden Eagles are in the same exact boat as Big Bear, as they need to win to have any shot at an at-large bid. And it still may not be enough.

5) Desert Mirage (3-6, 0-3): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

And the two freelance teams, which are eligible for the East Valley playoff if I'm not mistaken.

1) Oak Hills (7-2) - I really can't see any way the Bulldogs don't make the postseason. Not only do they have a lot of wins, but they have quality wins over teams like Aquinas and Laguna Beach. Can't imagine a scenario where they wouldn't be able to play in the playoffs.

2) Citrus Valley (2-7) - Eliminated from playoff consideration.


Week 7 high school picks

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Dropped four last week, a slight move in the wrong direction from the week before. But I'm feeling a perfect week coming this week. Or I'm coming down with swine flu. Either way, good times for all.

Silverado at Barstow
The Desert Sky League is ballin' this year and this should be the marquee matchup of the league slate. The Hawks and Aztecs played two great games last year in Victorville, with Silverado taking the regular season meeting and Barstow winning in the Eastern semifinals. I like what the Hawks have done during their five-game win streak, but I'm feeling Barstow at home.
Barstow 28, Silverado 24

Miller at Carter
The Rebels have made everyone forget about their 0-3 start (at least everyone but me) by putting the hurt on CBL foes Fontana, Rialto and Yucaipa. Of course, I picked Yucaipa last week, so I looked really dumb. I won't make the same mistake this week, although Carter is much improved from a year ago. Going with Miller to bump its CBL win streak to 12.
Miller 38, Carter 27

Rancho Cucamonga at Los Osos
The Grizzlies may be the best 2-4 team out there, as Los Osos has lost to Vista Murrieta (No. 3, Inland), Upland (No. 2 Central), Redlands (No. 7 Inland) and Riverside North. Unfortunately for Los Osos, it'll be the best 2-5 team out there when all is said and done, as they won't be able to take Rancho, the No. 1 team in the Central Division.
Rancho Cucamonga 34, Los Osos 17

Riverside Norte Vista at Kaiser
Typically the Sunkist is Kaiser, a few other teams, and some other teams thrown in for fun. Norte Vista is usually one of the teams thrown in for fun, but not this year, as the Braves have a perfect 6-0 record and the No. 8 record in the Eastern Division. But they aren't ready to sit at the big-boy table with Kaiser just yet. The battle-tested Cats will overpower Norte Vista.
Kaiser 22, Norte Vista 13

Cajon at San Gorgonio
We know that Cajon can go off on completely overmatched teams and can get throttled by very good teams. San G is somewhere in between, which makes for an interesting matchup. The 2-4 Spartans would love to get a signature victory under first-year coach Ron Gueringer, while the Cowboys want to prove that they can beat a team with a pulse. I'll pick the latter in a high-scoring affair.
Cajon 38, San Gorgonio 28

Garey at Colony
It's really hard to find a game worth picking from the Mt. Baldy League, so I went with this one. The Vikings aren't that bad, beating a decent Pomona team and fending off Montclair last week. But Colony is a darn good team with some pretty good pelts (Chino Hills, Kaiser) mounted on its wall. Garey is intriguing, but not intriguing enough to make me think about this prediction.
Colony 35, Garey 10

Serrano at Apple Valley
The Diamondbacks impressed the heck out of me last week, making Rim of the World tap out due to a physical, unrelenting defense. Apple Valley presents a few more looks than Rim did, as they've expanded their offense a bit past star running back Daryon Mosley. But Serrano has some elite talent to go with its traditional brawn, both of which will be too much for the Sun Devils to handle.
Serrano 28, Apple Valley 14

Chino Hills at Chino
Yeah, the Sierra League slate is that bad this week. It was either this or the Diamond Bar-Ayala game, another 0-6 vs. 5-1 matchup, so I went with the two county teams. I guess I could have gone without a Sierra game at all, but I'm not that mean. I'm not talking about this game much because there's not much to talk about. Chino Hills will win and it will likely be ugly.
Chino Hills 48, Chino 0

Twentynine Palms at Desert Mirage
Left for dead by some after an 0-4 start, the Wildcats have roared back by winning three straight games and not only look like the class of the De Anza League, but a contender in the East Valley playoffs as well. Desert Mirage runs the ball well and could be a sleeper, but I can't see them making this kind of leap just yet.
Twentynine Palms 27, Desert Mirage 11

Yucaipa at Redlands
Yucaipa is in week 3 of the CBL gauntlet, having dropped games to Redlands East Valley and Miller the last two weeks. While its not necessary for the Thunderbirds to beat Redlands to make the playoffs, it would make life a lot easier for Yucaipa. I wouldn't count on it happening though, as Redlands has consistently stepped up its game with each passing week.
Redlands 26, Yucaipa 13

Other games of interest:

Upland 36, Alta Loma 0
Etiwanda 48, Claremont 24
Ontario Christian 27, Western Christian 17
Fontana 41, Eisenhower 30
Redlands East Valley 63, Rialto 6
Yucca Valley 18, Desert Hot Springs 14
Ridgecrest Burroughs 27, Granite Hills 21
Rim of the World 42, Sultana 7
Chaffey 36, Montclair 12
Don Lugo 31, Ontario 6
Arroyo Valley 54, Pacific 7
Colton 58, San Bernardino 6
Ayala 38, Diamond Bar 13
Riverside Patriot 24, Bloomington 10
Summit 45, Jurupa Valley 3
Arrowhead Christian 20, Huntington Beach Brethren Christian 16
Victor Valley 21, Hesperia 17
Oak Hills 30, Palm Desert Xavier Prep 10
Big Bear 42, Citrus Valley 6

Week: 23-4
Overall: 153-46

De Anza League playoff breakdown

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Mountains, deserts, a lake here and there. The De Anza League has it all, including a playoff breakdown now.

1. Twentynine Palms (7-3, 3-1): The Wildcats have already clinched a playoff spot. Would grab the No. 1 spot in the league with a Big Bear loss and holds the tiebreaker over Yucca Valley by virtue of a win over the Trojans a couple weeks ago. Should Big Bear and Yucca Valley win, a three-way flip to determine the seeding for all three spots would take place.

2. Yucca Valley (5-4, 2-1): Would clinch with a win over Desert Mirage and get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Big Bear loss. A win and a Big Bear win would cause a three-way tie at the top, therefore a coin flip would determine seeding. A loss and a Big Bear win would knock the Trojans down to fourth, where they'd have to sweat out an at-large bid. A loss and a Big Bear loss would cause a three-way flip between Yucca, Big Bear and Desert Mirage for two spots.

3. Big Bear (6-2-1, 2-1): The Bears would clinch a playoff spot with a win over Desert Hot Springs or a Desert Mirage loss. They would grab the No. 1 seed in the league with a win and a Yucca Valley loss by virtue of a victory over Twentynine Palms last week. A win and a Yucca Valley win would cause a three-way flip for seeding. A loss and a Desert Mirage win would cause a three-way flip for the final two spots behind Twentynine Palms, though Big Bear would be a cinch at-large pick if available.

4. Desert Mirage (4-5, 1-2): Desert Mirage would clinch a playoff spot with a win over Yucca Valley and a Big Bear win by virtue of its win over the Trojans. A win and a Big Bear loss would cause a three-way flip for two spots, with Desert Mirage having to sweat out an at-large bid should it come short on the flips. A loss spells elimination in any and all situations more than likely.

5. Desert Hot Springs (3-6, 0-3): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

Week 10 high school picks

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Another mediocre week for my picking, as I only went 19-7 in my picks. I'll blame Chino Hills for that...no, actually Chino Hills should blame me for jumping on their bandwagon and causing a flat tire.

Upland at Rancho Cucamonga
Another big Baseline battle, as the team with 3-4 senior Division I prospects this year (Upland) plays the team that will have that many next year (Rancho Cucamonga). Expect lots of passing, lots of scoring and lots of fun. Yeah, it sounds like I'm advertising an afternoon at Knotts Berry Farm, but this one should be a good one. I'm going with the home team because I can't think of any other way to seperate these stud teams.
Rancho Cucamonga 38, Upland 31

Kaiser at Riverside Patriot
It's only fitting that Dick Bruich's last game will be for the Sunkist League championship, something that has been almost taken for granted by Kaiser fans and sportswriters. Like Kaiser, Patriot employs a hard-nosed, downhill running game and a physical defense. But no one plays sock-your-mouth football better than the Cats, at least in the Sunkist League.
Kaiser 23, Patriot 10

Colton at Arroyo Valley
For all intents and purposes, this game is for the final playoff spot in the San Andreas League. Sure, there are some weird coinflips that could happen with upsets and things of the like, but barring a San Berdoo High shocker, this is the game. Colton seems to have a little more momentum coming in and seriously, can you imagine the playoffs without Harold Strauss? Neither can I.
Colton 28, Arroyo Valley 14

Glendora at Ayala
Pop quiz hotshot. You've just beaten your crosstown rival in an upset. What are you going to do? What are you going to do? Host another game with league-championship implications of course. It might be tough for Tom Inglima to get his Bulldogs down from the high of the Chino Hills win but he'll have to, as defending Sierra champion Glendora is no slouch. However, it seems to be a rule in the Sierra League that allows for equal title time in football. So Ayala wins this year and Diamond Bar is the favorite in 2009.
Ayala 31, Glendora 25

Eisenhower at Redlands East Valley
The Eagles played their hearts out last week against Miller, giving the favored Rebels all they could handle before falling 28-21. Unfortunately for Ike, their playoff hopes might have fallen with that game. If Ike can pull an upset on a REV team due for a letdown after the big win over Redlands, then they'll be the biggest Rialto High fans ever - as the Knights have to beat Yucaipa. Unfortunately, it will be too hard to get the first phase of the job done.
Redlands East Valley 23, Eisenhower 9

Colony at Ontario
The Jaguars are a good story this year, as the heroics of quarterback/defensive back Herman Huezo have Ontario in the playoffs for the first time since 2003. Colony was in its infancy as a school back then, but has two CIF titles since the Jags last touched the postseason. The point of all this is even though Colony won't get a Mt. Baldy title, they won't lose to the spunky Jaguars either.
Colony 24, Ontario 6

Victor Valley at Ridgecrest Burroughs
It's pretty amazing that the Jackrabbits, who were winless the previous two seasons before this one, are in a win-and-in situation in this game. It's also amazing that the Burros could either win the league and get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs or miss them entirely based on this game. Such is the life in the Desert Sky League, not usually a bastion for parity. Victor Valley will give it a run, but Burroughs is too tough at home.
Ridgecrest Burroughs 30, Victor Valley 17

Apple Valley at Hesperia
We'll keep it up in the High Desert and take a journey to Hesperia, where the Scorpions can notch their first-ever Mojave River League outright title and set a school record for wins if they beat the Sun Devils. It's been a close-but-no-cigar year for Apple Valley, just to throw a cliche' out there. The Sun Devils have to still be kicking themselves about the second half against Rim of the World, which won't help them upset Hesperia.
Hesperia 35, Apple Valley 20

Arrowhead Christian at Aquinas
The Eagles have been a pleasant surprise, rolling up six wins and setting themselves up for an at-large bid in the East Valley Division playoffs should they lose this game. Unfortunately, should could be replaced by probably, which would ruin the sentence structure but bring up the main point, which is that Aquinas is scary good. QB Tyler Stirewalt put over 300 yards passing on Ontario Christian last week, something he can replicate tomorrow if he chooses.
Aquinas 42, Arrowhead Christian 14

Yucca Valley at Desert Mirage
This is historic, as this is the first time I've ever mentioned Desert Mirage in the main body of this predictions entry. So after I open up a few bottles of champagne, I'll mention how both of these teams are greatly improved and fighting for the last automatic playoff spot out of the De Anza League. Then I'll predict Yucca Valley to win a close one.
Yucca Valley 24, Desert Mirage 22

Other games of note:
Los Osos 31, Etiwanda 21
Alta Loma 21, Claremont 12
Miller 38, Fontana 7
Yucaipa 30, Rialto 14
Redlands 28, Carter 17
Ontario Christian 33, Western Christian 20
Big Bear 28, Desert Hot Springs 10
Barstow 34, Granite Hills 13
Serrano 42, Sultana 0
Rim of the World 45, Lynwood Firebaugh 6
Chaffey 35, Don Lugo 10
Cajon 51, San Bernardino 3
San Gorgonio 34, Pacific 8
Chino Hills 41, Diamond Bar 10
Damien 27, Chino 12
Summit 28, Bloomington 13

Overall record: 183-45-4

About T.J.

T.J. Berka has been covering sports for The Sun since 2006. As a graduate of the University of Michigan, T.J. know good sports when he sees them - at least he thinks he does.

Email T.J. here

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