Recently in Michigan State Category

As some of you know, every March I go absolutely crazy when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Kind of a weird field this year without defending champion North Carolina, UCLA, Arizona (first miss since 1984) and UConn. However, it's literally my favorite time of the year and I'll do my annual region-by-region breakdown. These are for recreational use only, but if you are tempted, I make a profit on my tourney pools a year ago.
Now to the Midwest Region:

Overall theme:
Coaching heavyweights everywhere. In this region alone, there are four coaches - Bill Self (No. 1 Kansas), Gary Williams (No. 4 Maryland), Tom Izzo (No. 5 Michigan State) and Steve Fisher (No. 11 San Diego State) that have won national titles while four others - Thad Matta (No. 2 Ohio State), John Thompson III (No. 3 Georgetown), Lon Kruger (No. 8 UNLV) and Paul Hewitt (No. 10 Georgia Tech) - have led their teams to the Final Four. Half of these coaches have coached on the sport's biggest stage, so don't expect much in the way of jitters.

Might as well get this over with now. I'm definitely torn though. As a Michigan graduate, the thought of Michigan State winning and talking copious amounts of crap (which Spartans do even when they lose to U of M, there's some chromosomal defect among Spartans that make them immune to humility or rational thought, but I digress) annoys me, but it would also net me $600. Not being independently wealthy, I could use that chunk of change. So there's my moral dilemma. On that note, here we go...

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina
On the surface, this should be an easy win for the Tar Heels. Carolina has boatraced through this tourney, winning each and every game by double digits. They embarrassed the Spartans by 35 points in December in Detroit and there's no real indication that they've gotten worse. They can run all day, shoot from the perimeter with Wayne Ellington and Danny Green, have one of the best point guards in the nation in Ty Lawson and have a brawler who can score inside in Tyler Hansbrough - who wasn't at full strength in December.
However, the Spartans will have a lot more of a home court advantage in Detroit this time than they did in December. They'll have Goran Suton back and a deeper bench. And they'll also have confidence, as they've already upset Louisville and UConn in their previous two games. Along with the cliche', tired 'win one for the struggling state of Michigan' storyline that the media is thrusting down everyone's throat and voila, MSU should be a team to be reckoned with.
The Spartans need to win how they did against Louisville, with a slower, half-court tough defensive outlook. If they push the tempo, which they did against UConn, they'll be run right out of Detroit by the Tar Heels. But Tom Izzo already knows that I'm sure.
So can Michigan State win? Sure, if it controls the glass, keeps the pace deliberate and the Tar Heels allow the Detroit green and white frenzy to get into their heads. But will they win? I say no. Roy Williams is no stranger at winning titles in hostile arenas - he beat Illinois in 2005 in front of a decidedly pro-Illini crowd in St. Louis - and I can't imagine that UNC will be intimdated by the surroundings. UNC has the most talented team in the field and they won't be overlooking a Spartan team, despite the earlier blowout, in a game of this magnitude. MSU will keep it relatively close, but too much Carolina in my opinion.
Pick: North Carolina

Well, the Throwdown in Motown is hours away and it should be an interesting duo of battles between two favorites and two upstarts, one of which will hold a pretty serious homecourt advantage. But enough of that.

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Connecticut
And here is the home team. The Spartans will have much of the crowd at Ford Field in their corner, with East Lansing just over an hour from downtown Detroit. That fan support is very necessary, as Michigan State finds itself playing a UConn team that has been extremely consistent and effective throughout the tournament. Missouri took a lead early in the second half against the Huskies, which is the only time that UConn has really been pressured in this tournament.
The best hope that Sparty has (besides the crowd support) is to get Hasheem Thabeet in foul trouble. I feel like a broken record mentioning that, as I'm pretty sure I have for every UConn game, but without Thabeet's 7-foot-3-inch presence, UConn is different inside and Michigan State has the depth in bigs to exploit it. It'll need to, as the Spartans will have a tough matchup on the perimeter against UConn point guard A.J. Price and freshman shooting guard Kemba Walker. I see MSU hanging tough but the Huskies will be too much.
Pick: UConn

No. 3 Villanova at No. 1 North Carolina
When the Tar Heels won the title four years ago, Villanova was the team that came the closest to knocking them off. In fact, a questionable traveling call on Allan Ray in the final minute was the kill shot to the Wildcats as North Carolina escaped with a 67-66 victory. There's no question that Villanova coach Jay Wright has been replaying that final minute, and that near-miss, in his head all week.
As far as this matchup is concerned, Villanova has the guard play to hang with UNC's Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson. The Coreys (Stokes and Fisher) and Scottie Reynolds should be a good matchup for UNC. However, the problem teams face with the Tar Heels is that their scoring can come from anywhere. Oklahoma was able to neutralize Tyler Hansbrough's offense in the regional final, only to be bombarded by Ellington, Lawson and Danny Green. The Tar Heels bring offense from all points and its almost impossible to neutralize it all.
Pick: North Carolina

Went 2-0 today, much to my dismay since the Pitt loss pretty much took me out of a high-money pool I was leading. Hopefully I'll go zero for two today if you catch my drift.

Midwest Regional Final
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Louisville
The Spartans pulled out their bag of tricks to get past defending-champion Kansas on Friday, as point guard Kalin Lucas made a tough and-1 leaner to break a 62-62 tie. If Michigan State hopes to pull the upset, Lucas will have to have a big game, as point guard is one of the few positions that the Spartans have a personnel advantage over the Cardinals.
MSU will also have to slow the Louisville press-and-run attack quite a bit. The Cardinals played their best game of the tournament - and perhaps the best game of any team in the tourney - in killing Arizona 103-64. They are deep, quick, talented and motivated. If they force MSU into turnovers - an occasional bugaboo for the Spartans - the Cards win this going away.
Pick: Louisville

South Regional Final
No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Just in case anyone was wondering if Blake Griffin was worthy of being the No. 1 pick in this summer's NBA Draft, Griffin has gone for roughly 30 points per game in his first three games. He's going to have to continue that type of production against the Tar Heels, who can score against and with anyone in the nation.
However, the key may be how the Griffins - Blake and older brother Taylor - deal with Hansbrough inside. They have the athletic advantage over the bullish Tar Heel senior and if they can frustrate him, they can keep UNC based on the perimeter. That, plus big performances from guards Willie Warren and Tony Crocker, would give the Sooners a chance. But I don't see it.
Pick: North Carolina

I went three for four in my predictions on Thursday, which I'll take every day of the week. Let's see if we can't go perfect today.

No. 12 Arizona vs. No. 1 Louisville
The Wildcats qualify as a Cinderella this year, though its a pretty big stretch to call Arizona an underdog. This "Cinderella" has three potential NBA players in Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger and Nic Wise and have the longest streak of consecutive tournaments made at 25. Many people rued Arizona's inclusion into the field this year, but they seem to have risen to the challenge.
Can Arizona keep its roll on. The Cardinals have struggled a bit in the tournament, taking more than a half to break away from play-in game winner Morehead State and having to fend off Siena late. Louisville hasn't played its best, but its depth and athleticism will get it through to Sunday.
Pick: Louisville

No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 2 Michigan State
This is a rematch of a January matchup in East Lansing won convincingly by the Spartans. It might be harder for Michigan State this time around, as the defending champion Jayhawks looked impressive in outscoring North Dakota State and subduing Dayton. Sophomore center Cole Aldrich has been dominant thus far, though he'll be matched up with a Michigan State team with a lot of big men, though only Goran Suton is a scoring threat.
The big key to the game is how Kansas handles the penetration of Kalin Lucas and if Michigan State can get production from athletic wings Raymar Morgan, Durrell Summers and Chris Allen. That happens, the Spartans cruise. If not, MSU struggles like it did against USC. I think Sparty has enough to move on.
Pick: Michigan State