NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: March 2010 Archives

The last region is the South, which could go a million ways. Lots of name teams in this region.

Overall theme:
Is Duke back to being Duke? The Blue Devils' name has taken a hit in recent years, as Duke hasn't been to the Final Four since 2004 and has been knocked out as a higher seed in every year since. The Blue Devils haven't had the athletic, NBA-bound 6-8 wing player in recent years like they did in their power years with Grant Hill, Corey Maggette and Luol Deng and seem to be lacking that player this year. However, Duke does have capable veteran guards and more size than its had in the recent past. Will be interesting to see if that helps.

Watch out for: No. 3 Baylor
Baylor is everyone's sleeper final four pick and for good reason, as the Bears have NBA talent and can flat out put the ball in the hoop. LaceDarius Dunn is a big guard that goes for about 20 points per game while Tweety Carter is a lightning-quick point guard. But the biggest key to Baylor's success may be 6-10 forward Ekpe Udoh, a transfer from Michigan that has added an elite defensive presence along with 13 points per game. Don't be surprised if the Bears are in Indianapolis in a couple weeks.

Stay away from: No. 4 Purdue
The Boilermakers have been dead team walking since star forward Robbie Hummel blew out his knee in late February. Prior to that, Purdue looked like a No. 1 seed and the class of the Big Ten, but since then the Boilers have lost at home to Michigan State and were bombed in the Big Ten tourney by Minnesota. They play a No. 13 seed in Siena that has pulled upsets the last two years, so there's a good chance the Boilers go down there. If not, the Texas A&M-Utah State winner should finish the job.

High risk, high reward: No. 5 Texas A&M
The Aggies have one of the better guards in the region in senior Donald Sloan and several interchangeable, physical post players that can rebound and defend. They are also tournament savvy, as A&M has won its first-round game four years in a row. Texas A&M has all the tools necessary to make a long run to the Elite 8 or even the Final Four. So why are the Aggies in this category? Because they are facing one of the more proficient 3-point shooting teams in the country in Utah State. If the USU Aggies are hot, the A&M Aggies will go home early.

Upset special: No. 9 Louisville over No. 1 Duke, second round
Obviously I'm skeptical about Duke being back to being Duke. Louisville seems woefully underseeded as a No. 9, as they defeated West Regional No. 1 Syracuse twice and won 11 games in a tough Big East. While the Cardinals are ugly at times, they have two elements that have given Duke fits in the past - height on the perimeter and athleticism everywhere. Duke is a skilled team, but not a team of greyhounds. If Louisville can dictate pace and fluster Duke with its size, its bye-bye Blue Devils.

Lead-pipe lock: The guard play will be outstanding
It's been said that the NCAA Tournament is a guard's tournament. If that's true, then the South Regional is ground zero. All the key players, Duke (Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith), Villanova (Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes), Baylor (Dunn and Carter), A&M (Sloan) have elite-level guards, while teams like Notre Dame (Tory Jackson) and California (Jerome Randle) have little guys that can play huge. Should be fun to watch.

Now to the East, where the youngest team in the tournament is the region's No. 1 seed.

Overall theme: Well-renowned coaches looking to get over "the hump"
The coaches of the top two seeds, Kentucky's John Calipari and West Virginia's Bob Huggins, are two of the more respected coaches in the game. They've combined to win 1,090 games and have combined for three Final Four appearances. However, neither coach has won a national title and only one (Calipari) has even been in the championship game. This year could either boost their legacies or cement them as guys who couldn't quite win the big one. Wisconsin's Bo Ryan, who has never been to a Final Four, is in a similar boat as well.

Watch out for: No. 2 West Virginia
While Huggins' teams have underachieved in the tournament in the past - last year's first-round flameout being the latest - the stars seem aligned for a long Mountaineer run this year. They are the No. 2 seed in a region where the No. 1 seed (Kentucky) has star players barely able to vote and a No. 3 seed (New Mexico) that plays in a mid-major conference. The Mountaineers have length, size, and athleticism in the forward and wing guard spots and can play a variety of styles. There's no reason for WVU not to at least make the Elite 8.

Stay away from: No. 12 Cornell
This seems kind of a copout, but the chic "12-over-5" upset pick has involved the Big Red beating No. 5 Temple. I get a bit wary when everyone jumps on an upset pick - makes me think twice about its validity. Cornell is getting its props for almost beating Kansas in December but it couldn't make it through the Ivy League unscathed, losing to conference doormat Penn at one point. Temple has 29 wins in an underrated Atlantic 10 and has plenty of athleticism on the perimeter. Don't see the Ivy League kids winning this one.

High risk, high reward: The Washington-Marquette winner
Another kind of goofy pick, but the winner of the 11-6 matchup between the Huskies and the Golden Eagles are set up for a run into the second weekend. Marquette is guard heavy with an elite scorer in forward Lazar Hayward - two things that tend to work in the favor of teams in the tourney. Washington also has an elite scoring forward in Quincy Pondexter and a point guard that pushes tempo well in Isaiah Thomas. Whoever wins this game can beat New Mexico in round two and give West Virginia a run, but picking the winner is a crapshoot to say the least.

Upset special: No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Clemson
Another weak 10-7 call, but there aren't any other upsets that I think are compelling. Not into Wofford over Wisconsin in the 13-4, already have discussed the 12-5 and 11-6 games, etc. Mizzou coach Mike Anderson's up-tempo, "40 Minutes of Hell" approach has yielded dividends in the past, getting UAB to the Sweet 16 as a nine-seed in 2004 and getting the Tigers to the Elite 8 a year ago. Oliver Purnell, on the other hand, as seen Clemson lose in the first round as a higher seed two years in a row, as a 5 to Villanova in '08 and as a 7 to Michigan last year. I'm feeling a hat trick.

Lead-pipe lock: There will be some fun basketball played in games not involving Wisconsin.
Between the up-tempo teams that I've mentioned early in this thread to the spectacle that Kentucky freshmen John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins create with their soon-to-be-NBA-lottery-picks skill, this will be fun. Kentucky has the most talent in the region, but their youth could hold them back from getting to the Final 4. As for the Badgers, watch at your own risk.

Now we are off to the West. While the Midwest is filled with giants and the prohibitive championship favorite, the West could be, as the cliche' goes, wild.

Overall theme:
This region is pretty much a free-for-all, as the higher-seeded teams come in slumping. No. 1 Syracuse has lost its last two games, at Louisville and against Georgetown in the Big East tourney, and might be without center Arinze Onuaku. No. 2 Kansas State struggled a bit down the stretch, losing to Kansas twice and at home to Iowa State. No. 3 Pittsburgh lost its Big East tourney opener to Notre Dame while Vanderbilt was eliminated early in the SEC tourney. You get the picture.

Watch out for: No. 7 BYU
The Cougars have suffered their share of heartbreak in the tourney over the years, as Danny Ainge's miracle shot against Notre Dame in 1981 is the last time they went to the Sweet 16 - until this year perhaps. BYU has perhaps the best pure scorer in the field in Jimmer Fredette and a first-round game against a questionable Florida team. With shaky Kansas State in the second round, BYU has a good chance to make it to the Sweet 16 in its backyard of Salt Lake City. Should the Cougars make it there, they could be a Cinderella Final Four squad.

Stay away from: No. 4 Vanderbilt
The last time the Commodores were a No. 4 seed was just two years ago, when they were embarrassed by Siena in the first round. Vanderbilt comes into this tournament limping a bit, and a 30-4 Murray State team is hardly the pushover that it was hoping for in a No. 13 seed. Vandy could lose right away and if it doesn't, it will have its hands full with the Butler-UTEP winner. I wouldn't put too many sawbucks on the 'Dores right now.

High risk, high reward: No. 9 Florida State
The Seminoles haven't won a tournament game since 1998 and their first-round game is no picnic, as they draw tournament veteran Gonzaga. However, the Seminoles have a lot of size, especially in the interior, and play defense more like a Big Ten team than an ACC one. With a Syracuse team of questionable health looming if it beats Gonzaga, don't be shocked if FSU is still standing in the Round of 16.

Upset special: No. 12 UTEP over No. 5 Butler, first round
I could have gone a million ways with this one. I've hinted at a couple of the other possibilites (Murray State over Vanderbilt, FSU over Syracuse, BYU over Kansas State), leaving this upset as the winner. UTEP boatraced Conference USA this year, going 15-1 in the conference behind guard Randy Culpepper, who averaged nearly 20 points per game. Butler did the same in the lesser Horizon League, but mid-majors with major seeds tend to have uneven results (see Drake, 2008). Add that to the 12-5 upset phenomenon that tends to happen and there ya go.

Lead-pipe lock: Pittsburgh will make it to the Sweet 16
The No. 3-seeded Panthers are a steady force in this wildly unpredictable bracket, as they have made it to the tournament's second week five times since 2002. Pitt is physical down low, has athletically erratic guard play and a wing player that can jump out of the gym. It's pretty much the same every year. They don't make it past the Sweet 16 often, as last year was the first in their current run, but they are good until then. You can pick Pitt a couple rounds and feel pretty secure about it.

As some of you know, every March I go absolutely crazy when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Kind of a weird field this year without defending champion North Carolina, UCLA, Arizona (first miss since 1984) and UConn. However, it's literally my favorite time of the year and I'll do my annual region-by-region breakdown. These are for recreational use only, but if you are tempted, I make a profit on my tourney pools a year ago.
Now to the Midwest Region:

Overall theme:
Coaching heavyweights everywhere. In this region alone, there are four coaches - Bill Self (No. 1 Kansas), Gary Williams (No. 4 Maryland), Tom Izzo (No. 5 Michigan State) and Steve Fisher (No. 11 San Diego State) that have won national titles while four others - Thad Matta (No. 2 Ohio State), John Thompson III (No. 3 Georgetown), Lon Kruger (No. 8 UNLV) and Paul Hewitt (No. 10 Georgia Tech) - have led their teams to the Final Four. Half of these coaches have coached on the sport's biggest stage, so don't expect much in the way of jitters.