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Super Bowl prediction

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With as fantastically horrible as I have been in the postseason, I almost didn't pick this game. But I figure a season of comic relief (or shaking of the head) needs to be ended well. So here we go.

Pittsburgh (-7) vs. Arizona
Well, I picked Carolina over Tennessee in this game, which shows how incredibly stupid I was this postseason. I'm 0 for 3 on the Cardinals, so one would expect me to go with Arizona here out of pure desperation. But I refuse to do it. If history has taught us anything, it's to bet big on defense. Last year's Super Bowl, where the Giants blitzed and battered the 18-0, NFL-record setting Patriot offense, was another in a long line in examples of this.

The Cardinals have the best wide receiver in the game right now in Larry Fitzgerald, who fittingly went to the University of Pittsburgh. It would be easy to go with Kurt Warner to Larry Fitz in the upset special. But the Steelers have the No. 1 defense in the league for a reason and I think it will be on full display. With James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley providing pass rush, Larry Foote and James Farrior hitting everything in sight and Troy Polamalu cleaning up the mess in the secondary, the Steelers will be unlike anything the Cardinals have seen. Santonio Holmes has emerged as a big-play threat in the playoffs, giving the Steeler offense enough juice to generate some points.

The Steelers, who were the first to win four Vince Lombardi Trophies, will be the first to hoist a sixth later today.

Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 14

Championship picks

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I must say that my picks so far have been brutal. If you are using these for anything more than amusement, then stop. Please.

I will press on anyway, just because I'm contractually obligated at this point.

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Arizona
It's the classic matchup between the team on a late-season tear (Philly) against the team that is rallying due to a 'no respect' battle cry (Zona). I've picked against both in both of their games thus far, so I'm probably not the person to ask here. But honestly, can you really see the Cardinals in the Super Bowl? Seriously? I can't either. A Super Bowl victory would cement Donovan McNabb's legacy as a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback and while I'm not ready to call that, I'll take Philly to make it to Tampa.
Philadelphia 28, Arizona 23

Baltimore (+6) at Pittsburgh
To be honest, the best bet in this game is to take the under. The current over/under is 33.5, but with the two best defenses in the NFL, the only way that this game goes over is if the defenses score on their own. With that said, I think the Ravens are being sold short in this game. They are banged up, but the Ravens have been tooth-and-nail with the Steelers in their previous two meetings, losing the last one on a controversial touchdown by Santonio Holmes. I'm getting a 2000 feeling about the Ravens, so I'm calling the upset.
Baltimore 14, Pittsburgh 13

Overall: 149-107-1. Record against spread: 119-135-3.

Divisional playoff picks

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Well, that was a crappy start to the playoffs for me, as I lost the Colts (who I had going to the AFC title game) along with two other games. Moving on and trying to avoid the doughnut.

Baltimore (+3) at Tennessee
The only winner I did get right, the Ravens are looking a lot like they did in 2000 - dominating, big-play defense with a punishing running game and a unspectacular quarterback who avoids the big mistake. I'm tempted to pick them to beat the Titans, as Kerry Collins doesn't quite breed confidence in me. However, I did pick Tennessee to make the Super Bowl, so I can't go back now. I'll hedge my bet and take the points.
Tennessee 16, Baltimore 14

Arizona (+10) at Carolina
The Cardinals looked good for the first time in a month, as their defense shut out Atlanta's running game and made Matt Ryan look like a rookie, which is pretty rare. But putting that type of effort out two weeks in a row - especially against a well-rested, playoff-tested team like the Panthers - is easier said than done. I'm taking the Panthers big here.
Carolina 28, Arizona 13

Philadelphia (+4) at N.Y. Giants
The weather outside could be pretty frightful, as the New York metro area is supposed to be buried in 6-8 inches of snow between now and gametime Sunday. That bodes much better for the Giants, who have a healthy Brandon Jacobs ready to pound. That rest, plus the revenge factor toward an Eagles win at New York in early December, should be enough.
N.Y. Giants 21, Philadelphia 14

San Diego (+6) at Pittsburgh
Ready or not, the Chargers are coming. They proved me wrong against Indy last week and could give the Steelers a hassle this week. Pittsburgh's D is top notch, but Ben Roethlisberger and the offense have struggled to string together touchdowns offensively. I'll take the home team again, with the road team covering.
Pittsburgh 17, San Diego 13

Overall: 148-104-1. Record against spread: 118-132-3.

About T.J.

T.J. Berka has been covering sports for The Sun since 2006. As a graduate of the University of Michigan, T.J. know good sports when he sees them - at least he thinks he does.

Email T.J. here

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