Recently in Point spread Category

It's late and I've been terrible in the NFL playoffs, so I'm not going to mince words.

Indianapolis (-5) over New Orleans. For those of you who want a score, let's say Indy 34, New Orleans 24.

I would take these picks with a grain of salt because, quite frankly, I've stunk during the playoffs thus far. That being said, I have a theory on picking Super Bowl participants which I call "The Middle Ground Theory."

I've noticed that in recent years that of the final four NFL teams, the Super Bowl matchup tends to not me the least desirable or most-desirable matchup according to ratings. For example, the ideal matchup last year would have been Pittsburgh-Philadelphia (battle of Pennsylvania, Steelers vs. McNabb, etc.) and the least-desirable matchup would have been Arizona-Baltimore. While Pittsburgh-Philly was the favored matchup according to point spreads, Pittsburgh-Arizona is what we got.

In 2007, New England-Green Bay was the most desirable matchup and the favored matchup according to point spreads, as it would have been the undefeated Patriots playing Brett Favre in perhaps Favre's final game (yeah right) in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI. The least desirable matchup would have been San Diego-N.Y. Giants more than likely, even though I guess you could hype the Rivers-Manning draft day trade drama. So what did we get? New England-New York Giants.

Wildcard week was unkind, as only Arizona's OT win prevented me from getting the goose-egg. I feel as if I'll be better this week. Or more accurately, hope I will be.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Arizona
Baltimore (+6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
Dallas (+2.5) over MINNESOTA
SAN DIEGO (-7.5) over N.Y. Jets

Last week: 1-3
Overall: 128-127-4

Nice final week got me before .500. Was going to write more on these picks, but it's late and I just want to get them in.

CINCINNATI (-2.5) over N.Y. Jets
Philadelphia (+3.5) over DALLAS
NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Baltimore
ARIZONA (even) over Green Bay

Week: 9-5-2
Overall: 127-124-4

So close to .500 I can feel it. And I also left these in the drafts folder.

BUFFALO (-8) over Indianapolis
CAROLINA (-9) over New Orleans
Jacksonville (+2) over CLEVELAND
DETROIT (+3) over Chicago
New England (+7) over HOUSTON
Pittsburgh (-3) over MIAMI
MINNESOTA (-8) over N.Y. Giants
San Francisco (-8) over ST. LOUIS
Atlanta (-2) over TAMPA BAY
Philadelphia (+3) over DALLAS
ARIZONA (-3) over Green Bay
Kansas City (+10) over DENVER
OAKLAND (+10) over Baltimore
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Washington
Tennessee (-6) over SEATTLE
Cincinnati (+10) over N.Y. JETS

Week: 9-7
Overall: 118-119-2

Taking time out of Christmas in Houston to do these up. Hopefully I get a little holiday luck going.

San Diego (+2) over TENNESSEEE
GREEN BAY (-14) over Seattle
Oakland (+3) over CLEVELAND
Kansas City (+13.5) over CINCINNATI
ATLANTA (-9) over Buffalo
MIAMI (-3) over Houston
Carolina (+7) over N.Y. GIANTS
NEW ORLEANS (-14) over Tampa Bay
Jacksonville (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) over Baltimore
PHILADELPHIA (-7) over Denver
ARIZONA (-14) over St. Louis
Detroit (+12.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
N.Y. Jets (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
WASHINGTON (+6.5) over Dallas
CHICAGO (+7) over Minnesota

Week: 6-9-1
Overall: 109-112-2

Back to .500 after a pretty good week. Let's get this done.

Indianapolis (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) over Dallas
Green Bay (+1.5) over PITTSBURGH
TENNESSEE (no line) over Miami
BUFFALO (+7) over New England
Arizona (-12) over DETROIT
PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) over San Francisco
N.Y. JETS (no line) over Atlanta
Chicago (+11) over BALTIMORE
KANSAS CITY (-2) over Cleveland
Houston (no line) over ST. LOUIS
SAN DIEGO (-6.5) over Cincinnati
DENVER (-14) over Oakland
SEATTLE (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
CAROLINA (+9) over Minnesota
WASHINGTON (+3) over N.Y. Giants

Week: 10-6
Overall: 103-103-1

Fell back a bit this week. Oh well.

Pittsburgh (-9.5) over CLEVELAND
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Denver
Cincinnati (+6.5) over MINNESOTA
N.Y. Jets (-3) over TAMPA BAY
KANSAS CITY (+1) over Buffalo
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO
ATLANTA (+10.5) over New Orleans
BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Detroit
Miami (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
Carolina (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND
HOUSTON (-6.5) over Seattle
TENNESSEE (-13) over St. Louis
OAKLAND (+1) over Washington
San Diego (+3) over DALLAS
N.Y. GIANTS (-1) over Philadelphia
Arizona (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Week: 7-9
Overall: 93-97-1

Continuing to roll, so no commentary this week either. I'm sure you guys are fine with that.

OREGON (-9) over Oregon State
USC (-7) over Arizona
WASHINGTON (+7) over California
Alabama (+5.5) over Florida
Nebraska (+14) over Texas
Georgia Tech (even) over Clemson
Central Michigan (-13.5) over Ohio
Houston (-2.5) over EAST CAROLINA
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Cincinnati
RUTGERS (-1.5) over West Virginia

Week: 6-3-1
Overall: 66-61-3

I stopped the slide for a week, as I actually went above .500. I credit the Thanksgiving turkey.

N.Y. Jets (-3) over BUFFALO
Denver (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY
PITTSBURGH (-14.5) over Oakland
Houston (even) over JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee (+6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
ATLANTA (+5.5) over Philadelphia
CINCINNATI (-13) over Detroit
New Orleans (-9.5) over WASHINGTON
Tampa Bay (+6.5) over CAROLINA
CHICAGO (-9) over St. Louis
San Diego (-13) over CLEVELAND
San Francisco (even) over SEATTLE
Minnesota (-5) over ARIZONA
N.Y. GIANTS (+2.5) over Dallas
MIAMI (+5.5) over New England
GREEN BAY (-3) over Baltimore

Week: 9-7
Overall: 86-88-1

For as bad as I've done in the NFL lately, I've been the opposite in college. Let's keep it up shall we?

USC (-13) over Ucla
Arizona (-3) over ARIZONA STATE
Washington State (+24.5) over WASHINGTON
Notre Dame (+10) over STANFORD
Texas (-21) over TEXAS A&M
WEST VIRGINIA (even) over Pittsburgh
AUBURN (+10) over Alabama
Utah (+7.5) over BYU
Oklahoma State (+8) over OKLAHOMA
FLORIDA (-24.5) over Florida State

Week: 6-4
Overall: 60-58-2

I really think that the Thursday games have messed up my mojo. Maybe more of them is what I need.

Green Bay (-11) over DETROIT
DALLAS (-13.5) over Oakland
DENVER (+6.5) over N.Y. Giants
HOUSTON (+3.5) over Indianapolis
CINCINNATI (-14) over Cleveland
MINNESOTA (-10.5) over Chicago
Washington (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO
Arizona (even) over TENNESSEE
Seattle (-3) over ST. LOUIS
ATLANTA (-11.5) over Tampa Bay
Carolina (+3) over N.Y. JETS
Jacksonville (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO
SAN DIEGO (-13.5) over Kansas City
BALTIMORE (even) over Pittsburgh
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over New England

Week: 6-10
Overall: 77-81-1

Well, no writeups worked well last week, so I'll try it again.

UCLA (-5) over Arizona State
ARIZONA (+6) over Oregon
STANFORD (-7.5) over California
Washington State (+31) over OREGON STATE
MICHIGAN (+12) over Ohio State
Oklahoma (-6.5) over TEXAS TECH
BOSTON COLLEGE (-3.5) over North Carolina
Connecticut (+6) over NOTRE DAME
TEXAS (-27.5) over Kansas
Penn State (-3) over MICHIGAN STATE

Last week: 8-2
Overall: 54-54-2

Bad week last week, as I'm at .500 for the first time since really early in the season. Time to turn this back up.

Carolina (-3) over MIAMI
DETROIT (-3.5) over Cleveland
Buffalo (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh (-10) over KANSAS CITY
BALTIMORE (+1) over Indianapolis
Atlanta (+6.5) over N.Y. GIANTS
GREEN BAY (-6.5) over San Francisco
MINNESOTA (-10.5) over Seattle
DALLAS (-11) over Washington
TAMPA BAY (+11) over New Orleans
Arizona (-9.5) over ST. LOUIS
N.Y. Jets (+10.5) over NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati (+9.5) over OAKLAND
San Diego (no line) over DENVER
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
Tennessee (+4.5) over HOUSTON

Week: 5-10
Overall: 71-71-1

In honor of going 3-7 last week, I'm just sticking to the picks and not doing any flowery writeups. They don't seem to be helping too much.

Stanford (+10.5) over USC
Ucla (-17.5) over WASHINGTON STATE
CALIFORNIA (-3) over Arizona
OREGON (-18) over Arizona State
Washington (+13) over OREGON STATE
CINCINNATI (-9.5) over West Virginia
Iowa (+16.5) over OHIO STATE
Notre Dame (+7) over PITTSBURGH
SOUTH CAROLINA (+17.5) over Florida
OKLAHOMA STATE (-4.5) over Texas Tech

Last week: 3-7
Overall: 46-52-2

With Thursday games starting this week and lasting the rest of the season, I'm moving up my NFL picks. Just in case you were having a "What the hell?" moment.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Chicago
N.Y. JETS (-7) over Jacksonville
Denver (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH
Buffalo (+6.5) over TENNESSEE
MINNESOTA (-16.5) over Detroit
New Orleans (-14) over ST. LOUIS
Atlanta (-1.5) over CAROLINA
Tampa Bay (+10) over MIAMI
OAKLAND (-2) over Kansas City
Seattle (+9) over ARIZONA
Philadelphia (+1.5) over SAN DIEGO
Dallas (-3) over GREEN BAY
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New England
Baltimore (-10.5) over CLEVELAND

Week: 7-6
Overall: 66-61-1

Another crappy week. Starting to slip guys.

Kansas City (+6.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Baltimore (-3) over CINCINNATI
INDIANAPOLIS (-8) over Houston
ATLANTA (-9) over Washington
Green Bay (-10) over TAMPA BAY
Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO
Miami (+10.5) over NEW ENGLAND
NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Carolina
SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit
SAN FRANCISCO (-5) over Tennessee
San Diego (+4.5) over N.Y. GIANTS
PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas
Pittsburgh (-3) over DENVER

Week: 5-8
Overall: 59-55-1

Why do I keeping picking college football games despite being bad at it? For the laughs of course, and to show you guys that I'm part human. Not a great week or season for me thus far. Thankfully I'm better at the high school picks.

USC (-10) at Arizona State
Will the Trojans slog around after their lopsided loss to Oregon? Or will they come out inspired and rough up a mediocre Arizona State team? This game is inexplicably the sixth road game already for the Trojans. Whoever made their schedule had a sick sense of humor in my opinion. I expect USC to go through the motions a bit but do enough to win.
Pick: Arizona State

Washington (+5.5) at UCLA
I'll be at this game tomorrow working on a story about the Huskies' REV triumvirate, especially RB Chris Polk. UCLA showed some spunk last week hanging with Oregon State in Corvallis and with Washington's struggles on the road, the Bruins may be able to break through and get that first Pac-10 win. I have a hard time picking them to cover though.
Pick: Washington

Oregon (-7) at Stanford
I see this as the classic letdown game. The Ducks have been the toast of the Pacific Northwest after their savage beatdown of USC last week and its going to be hard for them to rebound and come out hungry against a sneaky-good Stanford team. Ultimately, Oregon should win this, but don't be surprised if the Cardinal put some fear in them.
Pick: Stanford

Oregon State (+7) at California
This is the time of year where the Beavers start to roll. But then again, Cal seems to have overcome its late September troubles and is rolling. This is a huge game for Cal QB Kevin Riley, who had a huge brain fart in the final seconds two years ago which prevented the then-No. 1 Golden Bears from kicking a game-tying field goal in a 31-28 loss. Riley gets his revenge.
Pick: California

Washington State (+32) at Arizona
Another big spread for the Cougars to try to stay within. Honestly, anyone who has taken the Cougars and the ridiculous amounts of points they receive from Vegas every week is making a huge profit. Wazzu is bad, but not bad enough. It'll be the same type deal this week, as Arizona wins easily but the Cougars win money for everyone who bet them.
Pick: Washington State

LSU (+7.5) at Alabama
I'm conflicted on this one. On one hand, I feel that LSU is slightly overrated and not really that good. On the other hand, Alabama seems ripe to be messed with a bit, as evidenced by their near-miss against Tennessee. I think the Tide wins, but the LSU defense keeps this low-scoring and close.
Pick: LSU

Oklahoma (-4.5) at Nebraska
This used to be the marquee rivalry in the Big 8. However, the Big 12 for some reason decided to make this rivalry a two-years-on, two-years-off affair, pretty much ruining one of the best matchups. It also doesn't help that they haven't been good at the same time since the 1980s. Both of these teams are very good defensively, but only one is competent offensively. That will be the difference.
Pick: Oklahoma

Ohio State (+5.5) at Penn State
The Nittany Lions come into this game red-hot, having won their last five games since dropping their conference opener to Iowa. The Buckeyes have looked better on offense the last two weeks, but then again, that's not hard against Minnesota and New Mexico State. I have a hard time seeing this Ohio State group winning at Happy Valley.
Pick: Penn State

Connecticut (+17) at Cincinnati
It's been a brutal past few weeks for the Huskies. One of their starting safeties gets stabbed and dies in tragic fashion, UConn loses three games in a row, two in heartbreaking, last-minute fashion. And now they get a Bearcats team that's been killing everything in its path. I don't see this going well for UConn.
Pick: Cincinnati

Duke (+10) at North Carolina
No, this is not a mistake. And no, this is not a basketball game. In fact, this is a surprisingly competitive football game, as the Blue Devils are 3-1 in the ACC and actually tied for first in the loser's column in the ACC Coastal Division. UNC was disappointing under Butch Davis, but is fresh off an upset of Va. Tech last week. I see UNC's talent ultimately winning out, but Duke is going to make this a game.
Pick: Duke

Last week: 4-6
Overall: 43-45-2

Not a great week last week. Apparently picking from a hotel room in Tucson doesn't suit me too well.

Denver (+3.5) over BALTIMORE
Cleveland (+13.5) over CHICAGO
Houston (-3) over BUFFALO
GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota
San Francisco (+13) over INDIANAPOLIS
N.Y. JETS (-3.5) over Miami
DETROIT (off) over St. Louis
Seattle (+10) over DALLAS
SAN DIEGO (-17) over Oakland
Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE
Carolina (+10) over ARIZONA
PHILADELPHIA (+2) over N.Y. Giants
Atlanta (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Week: 5-7-1
Overall: 54-47-1

I'm nothing if not average as far as college football is concerned. If only I knew which five I'd get every week - I could be rich. But alas, I'm not.

USC (-3) at Oregon
The game of the Pac-10 season by far, as the Ducks have destroyed everything in their path lately while the Trojans have kept winning, albeit in heart-stopping fashion at times. The Trojans have already won in Columbus, Berkeley and South Bend, so there will be no intimidation here. This is a type of game that the Trojans just don't lose, and that's what I'm going with.
Pick: USC

UCLA (+9.5) at Oregon State
Having a chance to watch the Bruins live in Tucson last week was eye-opening. UCLA is really not good, as they couldn't cover despite Arizona giving them five turnovers. The Bruins' best hope is an Oregon State letdown after its close loss to USC, but I don't see it. Easy money for the Beavers here.
Pick: Oregon State

California (-6.5) at Arizona State
The Bears seem to have recovered from whatever swine-flu like disorder plagued it during the Oregon and USC games. But Cal does not do well on the road and while Arizona State is hardly a power this year, they have played pretty well at Sun Devil Stadium. I have a feeling ASU keeps it close.
Pick: Arizona State

Washington State (+28) vs. Notre Dame
This game is being played in San Antonio for some reason, with the Cougars expected to play the role of the sacrifical lamb to Notre Dame. However, Wazzu has been very good at covering obscene spreads. It still gets killed, but killed by less than the spread. Considering that ND revels in closer games, I expect the Cougars to stay within four touchdowns, if just barely.
Pick: Washington State

Texas (-9.5) at Oklahoma State
Good news, bad news scenario for the Cowboys. The good news is that star RB Kendall Hunter will be back from injury but WR Desmond Bryant has been ruled ineligble, which, obviously, is the bad news. Okie State finds creative ways to lose to Texas and likely will again, but they always seem to be heartbreaks. Translation: Take the points.
Pick: Oklahoma State

Georgia (+15) vs. Florida
The "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" is going a bit under the radar this year, with the Bulldogs meandering around .500 and the Gators somewhat struggling despite being No. 1. Florida has owned this series of late, but these Gators seem more like the 2006 champions than the 2008 ones, meaning take the points and watch Florida ugly out another win.
Pick: Georgia

Central Michigan (+5.5) at Boston College
Why am I picking this game? A couple reasons. The first is that its not a very good week for college football in the ACC or Big East. The second is that this is a sneaky-good matchup, as the Chippewas have won seven in a row while BC has been as pesky as it normally is. Central has won at Michigan State and I think they'll win in the Northeast.
Pick: Central Michigan

Penn State (-17.5) at Northwestern
Yeah, its a crappy week in the Big Ten too, with Iowa playing Indiana and Ohio State playing New Mexico State randomly. So I guess this game gets my pick. Penn State impressed by destroying Michigan and could be ripe for a letdown, but Northwestern, although 5-3, just isn't that good. I'll take Penn State to cover and continue its surge.
Pick: Penn State

South Carolina (+6) at Tennessee
The Volunteers lead the nation in moral victories, as the Vols have given Florida and Alabama tough tussles on the road, coming within a blocked field goal of shocking the Crimson Tide. But they are still 3-4 and South Carolina is a pretty darn good team. I think you have to take the points, especially with Tennessee on letdown alert.
Pick: South Carolina

Kansas (+6.5) at Texas Tech
Reason this game is included is because of this awesome press conference rant by Texas Tech coach Mike Leach, which I've added below.

That being said, I expect Texas Tech to be a little more focused this week, which is bad news for Kansas.
Pick: Texas Tech

Last week: 5-5
Overall: 39-39-2

Back above .500 last week. Don't know why it happened, but I'm happy it did.

San Diego (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis (-14.5) over ST. LOUIS
Chicago (even) over CINCINNATI
CLEVELAND (+9) over Green Bay
Minnesota (+6) over PITTSBURGH
TAMPA BAY (+15.5) over New England
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
N.Y. Jets (-6) over OAKLAND
Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA
MIAMI (+6.5) over New Orleans
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS
N.Y. GIANTS (-7) over Arizona
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON

Last week: 8-6
Overall: 49-40

Back at .500, which feels pretty darn good. Let's get above .500 and make some money - figuratively and not literally of course.

Oregon State (+20.5) at USC
It's safe to say that the Trojans have had this game circled on the calendar for a while, as it was a loss at Oregon State last year that effectively eliminated USC from national title contention. Circumstances have USC is good position despite the Washington loss and this game won't do anything to hurt the Trojan cause.
Pick: USC

UCLA (+7.5) at Arizona
I'll actually be in the house for this game, as the newspaper group is using me this week as a pinch-hitter for UCLA beat writer Jon Gold. Anyway, this will be a tough task for a Bruins defense that's been fleeced by Stanford and Cal the last two games. Arizona's offense has blossomed since Nick Foles has been made the starting QB and will flourish again.
Pick: Arizona

Oregon (-10) at Washington
The Huskies are literally the hardest team to figure out from week to week. Last week it looked like they were a cinch for a cover against Arizona State, tying the game late in the fourth, only to allow a touchdown pass in the final seconds. Cost me by a half-point. Either way, Washington has been tough at home and while Oregon is surging, I'm putting my pick on the gang in purple again.
Pick: Washington

Washington State (+35.5) at California
The bye week apparently cured whatever ills Cal had offensively, as they fleeced UCLA for 45 points at the Rose Bowl last week. That's not a good sign for a Washington State team that's, quite frankly, years away from being competitive. However, Wazzu has covered these large spreads so far, so I'll go with them to stay within, say, 31 points.
Pick: Washington State

Arizona State (+6.5) at Stanford
The Sun Devils and Cardinal represent a pack of 6-7 teams in the Pac-10 that are pretty much equal. It seems like these teams take care of business at home but fall short on the road. It held up last week, as Stanford lost at Arizona in OT and Arizona State pulled out a home win late against U-Dub. I see no reason to pick the road team here.
Pick: Stanford

TCU (-2) at BYU
The battle of the Mountain West season to date will take place in Provo, as the Horned Frogs get a chance to make a national statement with a road victory over a team that's beaten Oklahoma. However, BYU is a tough place to play, the weather could be cold and the Cougars have a potent offense. You can see where I'm going with this.
Pick: BYU

Oklahoma (-8) at Kansas
This is a weird game. Oklahoma is 3-3 but its hard to find five defenses in the country that are better than what the Sooners have. Bad luck and injuries have derailed what should be a BCS-level team in a way that hasn't been seen in college football in quite a while. Kansas, despite losing to Colorado, is no slouch and can score. Not saying that OU will lose, but they seem too snakebit to cover this on the road.
Pick: Kansas

Iowa (+1.5) at Michigan State
Couple of trends colliding with each other in this one. One is Iowa's success as a road dog, as they have won outright as road dogs at Penn State and Wisconsin. The other is a line that's moving quickly in MSU's direction. Last time that happened against Michigan, they covered. However, Iowa seems to win and shouldn't be the underdog in this one.
Pick: Iowa

South Florida (+6) at Pittsburgh
While Cincinnati appears to be the class of the Big East, these two teams - along with West Virginia - are definitely fighting for the No. 2 spot. South Florida missed its shot at Cincy last week, while Pittsburgh came off of a nice win at Rutgers. I sense a bit of a letdown from the Bulls in this game, which should benefit Pitt nicely.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Tennessee (+14.5) at Alabama
The traditional "Third Saturday of October" rivalry games is taking place on the fourth Saturday for whatever reason. Not that it seems to matter. Tennessee, despite a nice win over Georgia two weeks ago, is an inconsistent work in progress and the Crimson Tide have been surgical in winning their first seven games. I expect no less in game 8.
Pick: Alabama

Last week: 5-4-1
Overall: 34-34-2

Back to .500 this week, which I'll take after getting smacked around in week 4.

Kansas City (+6) over WASHINGTON
Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland
Baltimore (+3) over MINNESOTA
JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) over St. Louis
N.Y. Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY
GREEN BAY (-14) over Detroit
Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND
SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona
N.Y. JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Tennessee
ATLANTA (-3) over Chicago
Denver (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO

Week: 7-7
Overall: 41-34

Another 5-5. I'm consistent if nothing else.

USC (-10) at Notre Dame
On the surface, it seems pretty high, as USC takes a true freshman on the road in a rivalry game against a halfway-decent team. But Matt Barkley has already won at Ohio State and at Cal and quite frankly, Notre Dame's defense is awful. The Irish are a middle of the pack team and USC seems to excel in this matchup.
Pick: USC

California (-3.5) at UCLA
It's hard to believe that Cal is favored in this, as they have been unspeakably awful their last two games. Then again, UCLA isn't very good either, as evidenced by its 0-2 Pac-10 record. I'll grudgingly go with a more experienced Cal team to cover here.
Pick: California

Stanford (+4) at Arizona
Both of these teams seem just on the cusp of great things. However, they are just a little too young or a little too lacking in key areas to really jump up and bite someone of consequence, especially on the road. That last statement should tell you which way I'm leaning.
Pick: Arizona

Washington (+6.5) at Arizona State
On the surface Washington has been an enigma, but their formula is simple - great at home, not so much on the road. Arizona State is generally mediocre and their near-miss at Georgia isn't as cool as it looked originally. I think Washington, even on the road, keeps this tight and maybe wins.
Pick: Washington

Oklahoma (+3) vs. Texas
The Red River Shootout is an interesting predicament, as the No. 3-ranked Longhorns are only a field-goal favorite despite the Sooners having two losses. Makes me wonder if Oklahoma is ripe for a hostile takeover in this series. But I can't see it. I'm going with the Horns to win by a touchdown.
Pick: Texas

Virginia Tech (-3) at Georgia Tech
The Hokies have been straight ballin since losing their opener to Alabama, taking out Nebraska and Miami (Fla) en route to the No. 4 ranking. They get a tough test this week, as Ga. Tech's triple option is tough to stop. I think the Hokies will stand up enough on defense and get some big plays against Ga. Tech's questionable defense.
Pick: Virginia Tech

South Carolina (+18) at Alabama
This could be a bit of a letdown game for Alabama. With a big win over Mississippi last week and a rivalry game with Tennessee next week, South Carolina might be catching Alabama at the right time. Don't think the Gamecocks win, but I think they make the Crimson Tide uncomfortable for a while.
Pick: South Carolina

Iowa (+2.5) at Wisconsin
Iowa has had some close shaves in going 6-0, most recently against Michigan. Wisconsin has gone 5-1, but are coming off a loss to Ohio State where they shot themselves in the foot by throwing two pick-6s. Iowa seems ripe for a loss, but I think they are one of those teams that just finds a way.
Pick: Iowa

Texas Tech (+11) at Nebraska
The best offense in the Big 12 goes against the best defense. The Cornhuskers seem to be back to being "The Blackshirts" as their defense throttled Missouri last week and is giving up less than 10 points per game. Texas Tech scored 66 against Kansas State last week. Both teams will deviate closer to the mean in a competitive game.
Pick: Texas Tech

Arkansas (+24.5) at Florida
Gotta head out to Lake Arrowhead so I'll keep this brief. Tebow goes off and goes off for a lot in this game.
Pick: Florida

Week: 5-5
Season: 29-30-1

I got cocky last week and paid the price. I've learned my lesson and hope to get back above .500 again this week.

Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS
KANSAS CITY (+8) over Dallas
Washington (+4) over CAROLINA
PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay
Oakland (+15.5) over N.Y. GIANTS
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
BALTIMORE (-9) over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
New England (-3) over DENVER
Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA
Jacksonville (+1) over SEATTLE
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE
MIAMI (+2) over N.Y. Jets

Week: 5-9
Overall: 34-27

Another break-even week leaves me a game short of .500. We'll try to be humble and finally get over the hump this week.

Oregon (-3.5) at UCLA
This game has been another textbook example of a reverse line movement (see Michigan-Michigan State last week) where the majority of the bettors pick one side but the line moves the other way because it gets the big money. The line has gone 2.5 points toward UCLA's direction, mostly because of concerns about Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli's health I'd guess. Still, I have a hard time believing that Kevin Craft is capable of this win.
Pick: Oregon

Arizona (-4) at Washington
Which Washington team will show up? The one that beat USC, lost to Notre Dame in overtime in a game it should have won and the one that gave LSU a run for its money? Or the one that was beat down by Stanford? It's hard to tell how good or bad Arizona is. If the Huskies don't have a hangover from Notre Dame, they should win.
Pick: Washington

Stanford (even) at Oregon State
This game started out with Stanford being favored and even though the majority of bettors are picking the Cardinal, the spread has moved two points in the Beavers' direction. October is typically a good month for Oregon State and while Stanford has impressed, it isn't ready for this win yet.
Pick: Oregon State

Arizona State (-21) at Washington State
Oregon State gave the Sun Devils a bit of a reality check last week, blasting ASU in Tempe. Washington State doesn't need a reality check - it's well aware of how bad it is. It won't get much better for the Cougars this week.
Pick: Arizona State

Florida (-7.5) at LSU
Will Tim Tebow play? That's the huge question coming into this game, as Florida's all-everything quarterback/missionary got a concussion two weeks ago, putting his status up in the air. Either way, this is a lot of change for the Gators to cover, considering LSU hasn't lost in 32 consecutive home night games.
Pick: LSU

Alabama (-5) at Mississippi
The money is going to the Rebels in this one and quite frankly, its time for Ole Miss to put up or shut up. After all the hype it got before the season, it needs to win against what has probably been the nation's most complete team to date to validate it. I don't think the Rebels will win, but they'll go down trying.
Pick: Mississippi

Wisconsin (+16) at Ohio State
A pretty big line considering that the Badgers are undefeated right now. Wisconsin's schedule hasn't been the greatest, but it got a nice win last week at Minnesota. Ohio State has rolled since losing to USC, but I'm not sure it's worthy of getting more than two touchdowns here. I look for the Badgers to stay somewhat close.
Pick: Wisconsin

Michigan (+8) at Iowa
The Wolverines' overtime loss at Michigan State took a little luster off this matchup, even though Gameday will be in Iowa City for it. Weird game, as Iowa won at Penn State but had to escape against Northern Iowa (17-16) and Arkansas State (24-21). I'd expect more of the Penn State effort from the Hawkeyes, though I'm not sure they are potent enough on offense to win this by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Michigan

Boston College (+13.5) at Virginia Tech
Boston College is an enigma to me. They don't exactly have a lot of talent, they don't really recruit that well but somehow, some way, they win games. These teams have been frequent battlers, with BC winning the last two games in the regular season while VT has won the ACC title game battles. I say VT wins this, but its close.
Pick: Boston College

Connecticut (+7) at Pittsburgh
Yes, I know this game isn't good. But I didn't want to pick another SEC or Big Ten game and all the Big 12 games this week were more blah than this one. I don't expect much scoring in this one, as UConn is good at playing ugly while Pitt isn't great at playing offense. Think low score and competitive, which favors the underdog.
Pick: UConn

Last week: 5-5
Season 24-25-1

So far so good in the pros, with another 10-win week making me feel cocky. We'll see if cockiness turns into covers. If not, I'll just pretend I stink again.

Oakland (+8.5) over HOUSTON
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore
Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND
N.Y. Giants (-9) over KANSAS CITY
Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO
WASHINGTON (-7.5) over Tampa Bay
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle
N.Y. Jets (+7.5) over NEW ORLEANS
MIAMI (even) over Buffalo
St. Louis (+9.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas (-3) over DENVER
San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
MINNESOTA (-4) over Green Bay

Last week: 10-6
Overall: 29-18

For as good as the high school and pro picks have gone this year, college hasn't been so great, as I fell below .500 with my latest performance. We'll get above that mark this week I hope.

USC (-4.5) at California
A tough game to get a read on. USC has hardly set the world on fire since beating Ohio State, but the Bears are coming off a humiliating 39-point loss at Oregon. Will Cal bounce back, or fold at the first sign of trouble? USC doesn't lose many "big" games and I don't see that trend changing.
Pick: USC

UCLA (+5.5) at Stanford
The Bruins are 3-0, but its kind of an uneasy 3-0 after a ho-hum win over a bad Kansas State team two weeks ago. Stanford just pasted Washington and seems to have it dialed in under Jim Harbaugh. This UCLA team did win at Tennessee, but Kevin Craft on the road gives me the willies.
Pick: Stanford

Oregon State (+5) at Arizona State
The Beavers have done their normal September thing, that is, finish .500 or below. The Sun Devils gave Georgia a run in Athens and almost pulled off a pretty decent upset. So pick Arizona State right? Not so fast. Oregon State picks it up midseason, and we are basically at that point.
Pick: Oregon State

Washington State (+35.5) at Oregon
The Ducks came up huge last week, completely throttling California in an unexpected 42-3 ambush. Washington State actually somewhat hung with USC, only losing 27-0. Oregon will win and win handily, but the inevitable letdown keeps the Cougars in covering range.
Pick: Washington State

Washington (+12) at Notre Dame
This line has moved down from an opening of 14, meaning that there's some serious money being thrown at the Huskies. That seems to be for good reason, as Notre Dame has injury issues on offense and Washington has played well against good competition.
Pick: Washington

LSU (+4) at Georgia
The Tigers may be ranked No. 4, but they aren't getting the respect that normally comes from that ranking from the bettors. Probably because LSU has come close to losing to Washington and Mississippi State. I expect Georgia to hold serve at home.
Pick: Georgia

Oklahoma (-7.5) at Miami (Fla)
Apparently Sam Bradford isn't going to play for the Sooners. It hasn't mattered the last two games, as Landry Jones has led Oklahoma to consecutive blowout shutout victories. Miami won't be shut out, and a packed house will ensure a cover in Jones' first-ever road game.
Pick: Miami

Michigan (+4) at Michigan State
This is one of the more drastic line movements I've seen over the span of a week. The undefeated Wolverines started as a 1-point favorite, moved to 2.5 point favorite and have backslid to 4-point dogs to the 1-3 Spartans. The big money feels it knows something, but I have a hard time bending my noodle around this.
Pick: Michigan

Florida State (-3.5) at Boston College
The Seminoles are definitely the schizo team of college football. They lose a classic to Miami, have to come back to beat I-AA Jacksonville State, kill BYU at BYU then throw up a stinkbomb at home against South Florida. BC is pretty nondescript, so I guess I'll go with the Seminoles to alternate to a good performance.
Pick: Florida State

Auburn (+2.5) at Tennessee
The classic matchup of the flashy offense (Auburn) against the hard-hitting defense (Tennessee). The Tigers have been pretty prolific under new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, but they haven't been tested like the Vols will test them. Tennessee can barely complete a forward pass, but they might not need to.
Pick: Tennessee

Another winning week for me, putting up nine wins after getting 10 in week one. I hope this is a trend and not an aberration.

N.Y. JETS (-2) over Tennessee
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville
Kansas City (+8) over PHILADELPHIA
BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Cleveland
N.Y. Giants (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY
DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington
Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS
San Francisco (+7) over MINNESOTA
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Atlanta
SEATTLE (+2.5) over Chicago
BUFFALO (+6) over New Orleans
Miami (+6) over SAN DIEGO
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCINNATI
Denver (-2) over OAKLAND
Indianapolis (+2.5) over ARIZONA
DALLAS (-8.5) over Carolina

Week: 9-7
Overall: 19-12

Definitely some backsliding this week, putting me with one great week and two terrible weeks. Of course, that has me back at square one. Guess it could be worse.

Washington State (+45.5) at USC
One of these teams is coming off a big victory and the other is coming off a disappointing loss. It's not how you'd think it would go down though, as the Trojans are looking to kill someone after their annual Pacific Northwest nose dive. Wazzu, despite beating SMU in OT last week, will be victimized here.
Pick: USC

California (-5.5) at Oregon
Last time these two teams played here, Oregon fumbled the ball out of the end zone late to lose a heartbreaker. Cal may be as hot as any team in the nation, but Autzen is never easy - especially now that the Ducks seem recovered from the Boise fiasco. The Bears will win, but it'll be rough.
Pick: Oregon

Arizona (+2.5) at Oregon State
Both teams suffered disappointing losses last week, with the Wildcats losing at Iowa and Cincy beating Oregon State in Corvallis. But this about the time when Oregon State starts to put it together. That should be enough against an Arizona team without star TE Rob Gronkowski.
Pick: Oregon State

Washington (+8.5) at Stanford
I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole. But I'm picking it anyway. The Huskies seem ripe for a letdown after the USC victory, but getting 8.5 points to an average team like Stanford seems a bit much. I have to think that a Washington team that beat USC and hung with LSU can stay within that spread.
Pick: Washington

Arizona State (+12) at Georgia
Whatever you do, prepare for fireworks. Georgia has played some PlayStation-esque games since losing its opener, winning 41-36 over South Carolina and 49-38 over Arkansas. The Sun Devils are a nondescript 2-0, as they've pasted cupcakes. Georgia is no cupcake.
Pick: Georgia

Miami (Fla.) (-3) at Virginia Tech
The Hurricanes, after beating Florida State and Georgia Tech, are the newest (or most retro) hip team in college football, as the 'U' has been declared to be back. If the Hurricanes are back, they have to win at Lane Stadium - one of the roughest environments in college football. Va. Tech will keep it ugly, but the 'U' will continue its surge.
Pick: Miami

TCU (+2.5) at Clemson
With Utah and BYU going down this past weekend, the Horned Frogs are now the sole "BCS Buster" in the Mountain West. A win at Clemson would do wonders for their prospects and its something that TCU, which won at Oklahoma in 2005, is capable of. I'll pick them to pull it off.
Pick: TCU

Iowa (+9.5) at Penn State
If you want some hard-hitting, bloody-nose, old-school football, this is the game to watch. These two teams have wars that aren't exactly aesthetically pleasing (case in point, Iowa's 6-2 win in 2004). The Hawkeyes ruined Penn State's shot at the BCS title game with an upset last year. PSU will get revenge, though not enough to cover.
Pick: Iowa

Arkansas (+17.5) at Alabama
The Razorbacks, with rocket-armed quarterback Ryan Mallett, can pass and score at will it seems. However, their defense is leakier than an 150-year-old ship, getting flossed for 49 points by Georgia last week. Alabama probably won't put up 49, but won't give up nearly as many points as Arkansas needs.
Pick: Alabama

Texas Tech (+1) at Houston
This game should be fun, as the Red Raiders and Cougars score as much as most high school boys basketball teams. Can Houston pull off another win against the Big 12, or can Texas Tech shrug off an emotional loss to Texas and grab this one. I'll pick Houston to represent at home.
Pick: Houston

Week: 4-6
Overall: 15-15

Got off to an awesome start, hitting two-thirds of my picks last week. Let's not jinx this.

Oakland (+3) over KANSAS CITY
Houston (+7) over TENNESSEE
New England (-3.5) over N.Y. JETS
GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati
Minnesota (-10) over DETROIT
PHILADELPHIA (+1) over New Orleans
ATLANTA (-6) over Carolina
St. Louis (+10) over WASHINGTON
Arizona (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
Seattle (+1) over SAN FRANCISCO
BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tampa Bay
DENVER (-3) over Cleveland
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Baltimore
Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO
N.Y. Giants (+3) over DALLAS
MIAMI (+3) over Indianapolis

Last week: 10-5
Overall: 10-5

Great week last week, going 8-2 to put me above .500. Looking to keep it up and keep it quick this week.

WASHINGTON (-19.5) over Usc
UCLA (-12) over Kansas State
MINNESOTA (+13.5) over California
IOWA (-4) over Arizona
Utah (+5) over OREGON
OREGON STATE (-1) over Cincinnati
STANFORD (-18) over San Jose State
VIRGINIA TECH (-5) over Nebraska
BYU (-8) over Florida State
NOTRE DAME (-10) over Michigan State

Last week: 8-2
Overall: 11-9

Doing these a bit early because I'm catching a flight to Ann Arbor right after I cover Vista Murrieta-Colton tonight. Considering how bad my high school and college first week predictions were, I'd take these with a grain of salt. In other words, don't put your car note up as collateral on any of these.

ATLANTA (-4) over Miami
Kansas City (+13) over BALTIMORE
CAROLINA (+2.5) over Philadelphia
Denver (+4.5) over CINCINNATI
Minnesota (-4.5) over CLEVELAND
HOUSTON (-4.5) over N.Y. Jets
Jacksonville (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS
NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Detroit
Dallas (-5) over TAMPA BAY
San Francisco (+6.5) over ARIZONA
N.Y. GIANTS (-6.5) over Washington
SEATTLE (-8) over St. Louis
GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Chicago
NEW ENGLAND (-11) over Buffalo
San Diego (-9.5) over OAKLAND

Like with my high school picks, I pretty much stunk in my first shot at the college picks, going 3-7 against the spread. Let's nip that in the bud before whatever credibility I have left gets flushed.

USC (-7) at Ohio State
Everyone knows that the Trojans romped the Buckeyes last season at the Coliseum. Everyone knows that USC kills Big Ten teams with impunity. Most know that Ohio State struggled with Navy last week. However, a true freshman making his first road start at the Horseshoe makes me take the home team here.
Pick: Ohio State

UCLA (+10) at Tennessee
This spread has grown two points since it was originally released, with the betting community being pretty impressed with the Vols' destruction of Western Kentucky. Not sure how good Tennessee really is, but they have a score to settle from last year at the Rose Bowl.
Pick: Tennessee

Purdue (+12.5) at Oregon
It will be interesting to see how the Ducks respond after the LaGarrette Blount-Boise State fiasco. With the Ducks laying an egg, no pun intended, and Blount laying out a Boise defensive player with a straight right, along with a Purdue team that scored 52 coming in, I have to go with the Boilers to cover.
Pick: Purdue

Stanford (+3) at Wake Forest
Got one thing to say about this game - noon Eastern start. That means Stanford will be playing at 9 a.m. Pacific time according to its internal clocks. Cal did that once last year at Maryland and was in a funk, getting down big before losing close late. I see the same thing happening here.
Pick: Wake Forest

Oregon State (-7) at UNLV
Could be a big of a tricky game for the Beavers, who are notoriously slow starters. The Rebels have talented and can nab unsuspecting Pac-10 teams, winning at Arizona State last year. I'll go with UNLV to give Oregon State a headache.
Pick: UNLV

Idaho (+20) at Washington
The Huskies, despite losing their 13th straight game, impressed against LSU, moving the ball at will at times against the Tigers. Steve Sarkisian has U-Dub going in the right direction and they'll break the streak in style.
Pick: Washington

Hawaii (-2.5) at Washington State
This game is not for the faint of heart. Hawaii struggled mightily with I-AA Central Arkansas before winning its opener, while Washington State was beat down by Stanford. I refuse to think that Hawaii is bad enough to actually lose to Wazzu, so I'll go with the Warriors here.
Pick: Hawaii

Notre Dame (-3) at Michigan
Being a Michigan graduate, I'll try my best to take off the homer goggles here. Both of these teams were surprisingly impressive against decent non-BCS conference competition last year, combining to beat their opponents 66-7. This series tends to favor the underdog historically, which is why I'm going with the Wolverines in a coin-flip game.
Pick: Michigan

South Carolina (+7) at Georgia
Whatever you bet in this game, take the under as one of your wagers. This game is always low scoring and hard hitting, as Georgia won 14-7 last year. Both offenses struggled mightily in their openers while the defenses looked good. With Georgia QB Joe Cox gimpy, I'll go with the Gamecocks here.
Pick: South Carolina

North Carolina (-4.5) at Connecticut
This would be an awesome basketball game, as these two programs have combined for four national championships on the hardwood since 1999. Its not a bad football game either, with Butch Davis bringing some talent to the Tar Heels and Randy Edsall making UConn a tough out. I'll go with the better basketball team here.
Pick: North Carolina

Back by demand (at least my demand) are my college picks. I'll take 10 games, pick against the spread, and hopefully make myself and all of you a hefty profit.

San Jose State (+34) at USC - With true freshman Matt Barkley making his first-ever start in his first-ever game, 34 points seems to be a little much. Expect USC to keep it simple. Pick: San Jose State

San Diego State (+19.5) at UCLA - Another kind of hefty spread, but I like Neuheisel in year two to roll over Brady Hoke and the mess at San Diego State in year one.
Pick: UCLA

Maryland (+21) at California - After being forced to play at 9 a.m. Pacific time in Maryland last year and losing, Cal is having the Terps play at 10 p.m. Eastern time. Turnabout is fair play.
Pick: California

Stanford (-17) at Washington State - Stanford seems to have things building toward a bowl bid this year. Washington State is basically a dumpster fire at this point.
Pick: Stanford

LSU (-17.5) at Washington - After finishing 0-12 last year, the last thing the Huskies needed was to face a national-title contender in week one. The losing streak continues.
Pick: LSU

Virginia Tech (+6.5) vs. Alabama (Atlanta) - The Tide established themselves as a BCS level team at this site last year, blowing out Clemson. I don't expect a blowout, or much scoring, in this one.
Pick: Virginia Tech

Georgia (+4.5) at Oklahoma State - Apparently Joe Cox, Georgia's starting quarterback, has swine flu. I'm not making that up. That gives the Bulldogs little margin of error against an Okie State team hungry to prove its worth.
Pick: Oklahoma State

BYU (+22) vs. Oklahoma, Dallas - The Cougars and Sooners get to play the first-ever non-exhibition football game in the posh Cowboys Stadium. At least the BYU fans will get big-screen, HD replays of Sam Bradford's five touchdown passes.
Pick: Oklahoma

Missouri (+6.5) vs. Illinois, St. Louis - Ever since these neighbor-state schools started battling each other, the wins have gone toward Missouri. But with no Chase Daniel or Jeremy Maclin, the Illini have too much Juice (Williams that is).
Pick: Illinois

Miami (Fla) (+6) at Florida State, Mon - These teams are moving back to Labor Day after a two-year absence, apparently forgetting the two visually displeasing season-opening matchups in 2005 and 2006. This one won't be pretty either.
Pick: Florida State

With as fantastically horrible as I have been in the postseason, I almost didn't pick this game. But I figure a season of comic relief (or shaking of the head) needs to be ended well. So here we go.

Pittsburgh (-7) vs. Arizona
Well, I picked Carolina over Tennessee in this game, which shows how incredibly stupid I was this postseason. I'm 0 for 3 on the Cardinals, so one would expect me to go with Arizona here out of pure desperation. But I refuse to do it. If history has taught us anything, it's to bet big on defense. Last year's Super Bowl, where the Giants blitzed and battered the 18-0, NFL-record setting Patriot offense, was another in a long line in examples of this.

The Cardinals have the best wide receiver in the game right now in Larry Fitzgerald, who fittingly went to the University of Pittsburgh. It would be easy to go with Kurt Warner to Larry Fitz in the upset special. But the Steelers have the No. 1 defense in the league for a reason and I think it will be on full display. With James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley providing pass rush, Larry Foote and James Farrior hitting everything in sight and Troy Polamalu cleaning up the mess in the secondary, the Steelers will be unlike anything the Cardinals have seen. Santonio Holmes has emerged as a big-play threat in the playoffs, giving the Steeler offense enough juice to generate some points.

The Steelers, who were the first to win four Vince Lombardi Trophies, will be the first to hoist a sixth later today.

Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 14

I must say that my picks so far have been brutal. If you are using these for anything more than amusement, then stop. Please.

I will press on anyway, just because I'm contractually obligated at this point.

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Arizona
It's the classic matchup between the team on a late-season tear (Philly) against the team that is rallying due to a 'no respect' battle cry (Zona). I've picked against both in both of their games thus far, so I'm probably not the person to ask here. But honestly, can you really see the Cardinals in the Super Bowl? Seriously? I can't either. A Super Bowl victory would cement Donovan McNabb's legacy as a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback and while I'm not ready to call that, I'll take Philly to make it to Tampa.
Philadelphia 28, Arizona 23

Baltimore (+6) at Pittsburgh
To be honest, the best bet in this game is to take the under. The current over/under is 33.5, but with the two best defenses in the NFL, the only way that this game goes over is if the defenses score on their own. With that said, I think the Ravens are being sold short in this game. They are banged up, but the Ravens have been tooth-and-nail with the Steelers in their previous two meetings, losing the last one on a controversial touchdown by Santonio Holmes. I'm getting a 2000 feeling about the Ravens, so I'm calling the upset.
Baltimore 14, Pittsburgh 13

Overall: 149-107-1. Record against spread: 119-135-3.

Well, that was a crappy start to the playoffs for me, as I lost the Colts (who I had going to the AFC title game) along with two other games. Moving on and trying to avoid the doughnut.

Baltimore (+3) at Tennessee
The only winner I did get right, the Ravens are looking a lot like they did in 2000 - dominating, big-play defense with a punishing running game and a unspectacular quarterback who avoids the big mistake. I'm tempted to pick them to beat the Titans, as Kerry Collins doesn't quite breed confidence in me. However, I did pick Tennessee to make the Super Bowl, so I can't go back now. I'll hedge my bet and take the points.
Tennessee 16, Baltimore 14

Arizona (+10) at Carolina
The Cardinals looked good for the first time in a month, as their defense shut out Atlanta's running game and made Matt Ryan look like a rookie, which is pretty rare. But putting that type of effort out two weeks in a row - especially against a well-rested, playoff-tested team like the Panthers - is easier said than done. I'm taking the Panthers big here.
Carolina 28, Arizona 13

Philadelphia (+4) at N.Y. Giants
The weather outside could be pretty frightful, as the New York metro area is supposed to be buried in 6-8 inches of snow between now and gametime Sunday. That bodes much better for the Giants, who have a healthy Brandon Jacobs ready to pound. That rest, plus the revenge factor toward an Eagles win at New York in early December, should be enough.
N.Y. Giants 21, Philadelphia 14

San Diego (+6) at Pittsburgh
Ready or not, the Chargers are coming. They proved me wrong against Indy last week and could give the Steelers a hassle this week. Pittsburgh's D is top notch, but Ben Roethlisberger and the offense have struggled to string together touchdowns offensively. I'll take the home team again, with the road team covering.
Pittsburgh 17, San Diego 13

Overall: 148-104-1. Record against spread: 118-132-3.

I made a nice little comeback last week, but still am guaranteed to finish below .500 for the season. Those are the breaks. We'll see if I can't be somewhat unterrible during the playoffs.

Atlanta (-1) at Arizona
If you took either one of these teams, especially the Falcons, to make the playoffs before the season started you'd be paid off pretty handsomely right about now. However, the NFC West champion Cardinals have been sluggish since winning the NFC West and will be going against Atlanta's bruising rush offense of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. The first playoff game in Arizona (involving the Cardinals at least) will be the last until at least next year.
Atlanta 28, Arizona 21

Indianapolis (-2) at San Diego
The Colts might be the hottest team in the NFL right now, winning nine straight. However, the Chargers aren't that far behind, winning four straight to become the first team in NFL history to make up a three-game deficit to win a division in the final three weeks. In other words, this matchup is two locomotives ready to pulverize each other. The Chargers pulled the upset in Indy last year, but I still don't trust Norv Turner. Going with the Colts here.
Indianapolis 30, San Diego 26

Baltimore (-3.5) at Miami
The Ravens made it here with a rookie quarterback and a great defense, while Miami somehow went from a one-win team to the winners of the AFC East. These teams met in the regular season, with Baltimore romping, and I see much of the same happening in this matchup. Look out for the Ravens as a darkhorse Super Bowl team.
Baltimore 23, Miami 10

Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota
It's pretty unheard of to see all of the home teams as underdogs. It would be equally as unheard of for the road team to win all four wild card games. The home team will get one, and I believe this is the one. The Vikings run the ball and can stop the run, two prerequisties for playoff success. Plus, the Eagles have been up and down all season. After killing Dallas, they are due for a letdown in the Twin Cities.
Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 17

Here's a quickie forecast for the rest of the playoffs.

AFC
Divisional
Tennessee over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
Championship
Tennessee over Indianapolis

NFC
Divisional
N.Y. Giants over Atlanta
Carolina over Minnesota
Championship
Carolina over N.Y. Giants

Super Bowl
Carolina over Tennessee

Overall: 147-101-1. Record against spread: 117-129-3.

I forgot there was a game tonight. I'm heading out of town for a few days for the holidays, so everyone have a great one.

Pittsburgh (-2) at Tennessee: Tennessee 17, Pittsburgh 13
Miami (-4) at Kansas City: Miami 24, Kansas City 16
Arizona (+7.5) at New England: New England 28, Arizona 20
Cincinnati (+3) at Cleveland: Cincinnati 16, Cleveland 12
Philadelphia (-5) at Washington: Philadelphia 23, Washington 17
San Francisco (-5) at St. Louis: San Francisco 27, St. Louis 16
Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota: Atlanta 21, Minnesota 20
New Orleans (-7) at Detroit: Detroit 27, New Orleans 24 (yeah, I'm an idiot)
N.Y. Jets (-3.5) at Seattle: N.Y. Jets 27, Seattle 21
Houston (-7) at Oakland: Houston 31, Oakland 13
Buffalo (+6) at Denver: Denver 24, Buffalo 20
San Diego (+3.5) at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay 24, San Diego 17
Carolina (+3.5) at N.Y. Giants: N.Y. Giants 20, Carolina 17
Green Bay (+4) at Chicago: Chicago 16, Green Bay 7

Overall: 126-92-1. Record against spread: 100-116-3.

Likely going to Vegas after covering the Barstow game tonight, so hopefully I have a 10-5 week like I did last week instead of the crap that I've had in virtually every other week.

Green Bay (-2) at Jacksonville: Green Bay 27, Jacksonville 23
Detroit (+17) at Indianapolis: Indianapolis 31, Detroit 16
Washington (-6.5) at Cincinnati: Washington 27, Cincinnati 9
Tampa Bay (+3) at Atlanta: Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 20
San Francisco (+6) at Miami: Miami 21, San Francisco 17
Seattle (-2.5) at St. Louis: Seattle 17, St. Louis 13
Buffalo (+7.5) at N.Y. Jets: N.Y. Jets 23, Buffalo 16
Tennessee (-3) at Houston: Tennessee 28, Houston 10
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Baltimore: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 17
Denver (+7.5) at Carolina: Carolina 31, Denver 26
San Diego (-6) at Kansas City: San Diego 27, Kansas City 23
Minnesota (+3) at Arizona: Arizona 28, Minnesota 17
New England (-7) at Oakland: New England 30, Oakland 17
N.Y. Giants (+3) at Dallas: N.Y. Giants 28, Dallas 21
Cleveland (+14) at Philadelphia: Philadelphia 24, Cleveland 6

Overall: 116-87-1. Record against spread: 92-110-2.

Take these with a grain of salt as always. Or get a good laugh from them.

Cincinnati (+13.5) at Indianapolis: Indianapolis 28, Cincinnati 10
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Chicago: Chicago 27, Jacksonville 17
Houston (+6) at Green Bay: Green Bay 28, Houston 23
Cleveland (+14) at Tennessee: Tennessee 31, Cleveland 6
Minnesota (-10) at Detroit: Minnesota 30, Detroit 10
Philadelphia (+6.5) at N.Y. Giants: N.Y. Giants 28, Philadelphia 14
Atlanta (+3) at New Orleans: Atlanta 31, New Orleans 24
N.Y. Jets (-4) at San Francisco: San Francisco 21, N.Y. Jets 17
Miami (even) vs. Buffalo (at Toronto): Miami 24, Buffalo 16
Kansas City (+9) at Denver: Denver 30, Kansas City 23
St. Louis (+14) at Arizona: Arizona 31, St. Louis 20
Dallas (+3) at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh 26, Dallas 17
New England (-7) at Seattle: New England 27, Seattle 13
Washington (+5.5) at Baltimore: Baltimore 21, Washington 13
Tampa Bay (+3) at Carolina: Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 23

Overall: 104-84-1. Record against spread: 82-105-2.

Last regular season slate, as I try to get above .500 prior to bowl season. Here's to it.

USC (-32) at UCLA
Two years ago, UCLA pulled a shocker over a heavily-favored USC team in the Rose Bowl, denying the Trojans a shot at a BCS title game with a 13-9 win. While USC's title chances are pretty slim, you know UCLA will want to mess with the Trojans again. USC, as you would expect, is coming in confident, even willing to forgo a timeout just so it can wear its home uniforms on the road. The Trojans want to make a statement against the Bruins and they will.
USC 42, UCLA 7

Arizona State (+10.5) at Arizona
This game very rarely means much of anything besides pride, as one team is usually very good while the other plays spoiler. Typically, the spoiler is Arizona, but the Wildcats have a chance to sew up their first winning season since 1998 with a win over the Sun Devils, who are playing for their bowl lives. ASU has won three in a row, but those were against the Washington schools and UCLA. I like Arizona big in this one.
Arizona 34, Arizona State 13

Washington (+35.5) at California
Is there any logical reason for this game to be played this week? Why not end the Washington season (which needs to end badly) by playing the Apple Cup and why not end Cal's season with Stanford? This just upsets me. Anyway, as for the game, Washington is trying not to end winless. Whatever.
California 45, Washington 6

Buffalo (+16) vs. Ball State
The Battle for the MAC in the D should be a pretty solid one, as you have a Cardinals team looking for its first-ever undefeated season against a Buffalo team that has been resurrected from the dead, or wherever you consider San Diego State right now. As one would expect, the coaches for these teams (Turner Gill at Buffalo and Brady Hoke at Ball State) will be getting attention from bigger schools with coaching vacancies. I say Ball State wins, but Buffalo makes it uncomfortable for a while.
Ball State 41, Buffalo 30

Boston College (even) vs. Virginia Tech
The ACC title game is a rematch of last year, which Virginia Tech won in front of an embarrassing dearth of fans. With the game in Jacksonville and both schools separated by at least a day's worth of driving, expect a bunch of empty seats for this one. It will be a pretty defensive game, as both of these teams have stout defenses and relatively feeble offenses. BC's offense seems a little more competent, so I'll pick the Eagles.
Boston College 19, Virginia Tech 14

Florida (-10) vs. Alabama
When was the last time an undefeated No. 1-ranked team was a double-digit dog against a team with a loss? I have no idea, and quite frankly, this could be the first. Alabama, despite going through the SEC unscathed, has been left for dead in this game, as the Tim Tebow-led Florida offense is expected to wreak havoc on the Tide, just as it has in every other game since losing to Ole Miss in September. While this screams a Crimson Tide cover, I think Florida is too hot for conventional wisdom.
Florida 38, Alabama 21

Missouri (+16.5) vs. Oklahoma
My views on Oklahoma's place in this game have already been made, so I will step off of that. On the surface, this title game rematch looks like a mismatch, as the Sooners have rolled off at least 60 points in their last four games and Missouri is fresh off giving up 40 to Kansas. But I think the Sooners are due for a bit of a letdown. They rode the momentum of the Texas Tech win against Okie State, but will face a bit of a challenge. I'm not insane enough to pick a Missouri win, but a close loss that will get people complaining.
Oklahoma 39, Missouri 35

East Carolina (+12.5) at Tulsa
I keep going back and forth on this game. That probably makes me kind of lame, as most people don't devote much brain power to the Conference USA championship game, but I could see Tulsa's pass-happy spread going nuts and killing the Pirates by 30-something points. I could also see Skip Holtz and East Carolina keeping this game pretty close. I'll go Tulsa because I don't feel like writing about this anymore.
Tulsa 48, East Carolina 23

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Connecticut
This would be an awesome men's basketball game, as both the Panthers and Huskies are in the top 5 of the polls. It's not a bad football game either, as Pittsburgh boasts one of the best running backs in LeSean McCoy while UConn has quietly built a solid, if not spectacular, football program. It will be cold and windy in Connecticut, so expect the Panthers to ride McCoy to victory.
Pittsburgh 21, Connecticut 16

Cincinnati (-7) at Hawaii
This game will have the opposite weather of the Pitt-UConn showdown, and quite frankly, the Bearcats deserve a day in paradise after winning a Big East title and Orange Bowl berth. This could be a tricky game for Cincy, as it could be tempted to luau and party, but Hawaii only beat Washington State by 14 last week. That result alone has me picking the Bearcats.
Cincinnati 34, Hawaii 17

Overall record: 101-39. Against the spread: 69-70-1

Went 2-1 on Thanksgiving. Sweet. Let's keep it up.

Denver (+8) at N.Y. Jets - N.Y. Jets 31, Denver 17
San Francisco (+6.5) at Buffalo - Buffalo 30, San Francisco 21
New Orleans (+4) at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay 28, New Orleans 20
Carolina (+3) at Green Bay - Carolina 24, Green Bay 23
N.Y. Giants (-3.5) at Washington - N.Y. Giants 27, Washington 17
Miami (-8) at St. Louis - Miami 24, St. Louis 17
Baltimore (-7) at Cincinnati - Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 9
Indianapolis (-5) at Cleveland - Indianapolis 34, Cleveland 21
Atlanta (+5) at San Diego - San Diego 27, Atlanta 23
Pittsburgh (+1) at New England - New England 28, Pittsburgh 17
Kansas City (+3) at Oakland - Oakland 24, Kansas City 16
Chicago (+3.5) at Minnesota - Minnesota 23, Chicago 20
Jacksonville (+3) at Houston - Houston 28, Jacksonville 23

Here are six more. Kind of disheveled this week, but its OK.

Notre Dame (+31.5) at USC: USC 38, Notre Dame 14
Oregon (+3) at Oregon State: Oregon State 28, Oregon 23
Washington State (+28.5) at Hawaii: Hawaii 51, Washington State 16
Oklahoma (-7.5) at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma 42, Oklahoma State 27
Auburn (+14.5) at Alabama: Alabama 28, Auburn 9
Florida (-16.5) at Florida State: Florida 38, Florida State 17

I'm being somewhat deficient with my picking. It'll get better this weekend.

UCLA (+10) at Arizona State - Arizona State 23, UCLA 17
West Virginia (-3) at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh 24, West Virginia 20
LSU (-4.5) at Arkansas - LSU 30, Arkansas 19

Don't really got time to do the whole slate now, so here's the quickie. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

College
Texas A&M (+35) at Texas: Texas 40, Texas A&M 13

Pro
Tennessee (-10.5) at Detroit: Tennessee 34, Detroit 13
Seattle (+12) at Dallas: Dallas 31, Seattle 10
Arizona (+3) at Philadelphia: Arizona 27, Philadelphia 21

I really should stop publishing my record against the spread. It sucks. But I'm pretty much obligated at this point.

Houston (+3) at Cleveland
Well, Brady Quinn was rolling along, then he gets hurt against the Bills. Houston is scrappy, but I think Cleveland takes this and keeps its playoff hopes barely alive.
Cleveland 27, Houston 23

Buffalo (-3) at Kansas City
I took a shot for the Chiefs last week and fell short. Against a Buffalo team that's lost four straight, I'm taking another one for KC.
Kansas City 24, Buffalo 17

N.Y. Jets (+5.5) at Tennessee
Huge win for the Jets last week in New England and at 7-3, they are red hot. But Tennessee still is unscathed and you know what they say - don't mess with a streak.
Tennessee 20, N.Y. Jets 13

New England (even) at Miami
The winner here remains in good position for a wild-card spot or a divison title - the loser goes into scramble mode a bit. After being shellacked the last time, you know the Patriots have been studying up on the "Wildcat" formation quite a bit. Give Belichick 10 days and good things usually happen.
New England 21, Miami 17

San Francisco (+9.5) at Dallas
Uh, oh TO is starting to get a little anxious. Dallas' offense wasn't great against Washington, but it got the job done. The Cowboys will win this, but it won't be a pretty win.
Dallas 24, San Francisco 16

Tampa Bay (-8) at Detroit
Lions had their shot at Carolina, but a muffed 2-point conversion and a bad interception sealed their fate. I think they'll give Tampa a run, but there's no way you can actually pick Detroit to win straight up.
Tampa Bay 28, Detroit 21

Philadelphia (+1.5) at Baltimore
Well, at least Donovan McNabb knows that NFL games can end in a tie. If there's anything positive that comes out of the 2008 NFL season, its that. Eagles are struggling and I can't see McNabb finding his rhythm against the Ravens.
Baltimore 21, Philadelphia 16

Chicago (-7.5) at St. Louis
The Rams, after a few good performances under Jim Haslett, have gone back to being the Rams of September. That's exactly what the Bears need after a rough trip to Green Bay last week.
Chicago 31, St. Louis 14

Minnesota (+2.5) at Jacksonville
I finally got a Vikings game right last week. So of course they play the Jaguars in a virtual coin-flip scenario this week. I think Jacksonville is a bit more desperate and pulls out the win.
Jacksonville 23, Minnesota 20

Carolina (+1) at Atlanta
Finally I join the Falcons' bandwagon. Finally, the Falcons lose. It's funny how that happens. Well, I'm back off, which means the Falcons have a better shot of winning than they did before I wrote this.
Carolina 27, Atlanta 20

Oakland (+9) at Denver
The Raiders actually gave the Dolphins a tussle last week. However, Denver seems to be getting its mojo back on offense, which is a horrible sign for Oakland.
Denver 30, Oakland 14

Washington (-3.5) at Seattle
The Redskins sure could use a break after two straight home losses. So they go to Seattle and face the feckless Seahawks. I'm all about using the word feckless.
Washington 27, Seattle 17

N.Y. Giants (-3) at Arizona
Brandon Jacobs may be a bit gimpy and Arizona may be a pretty solid team, but its hard to go against the defending champs in this spot - especially in the stadium where they shocked the world and defeated the unbeaten Patriots.
N.Y. Giants 28, Arizona 20

Indianapolis (+3) at San Diego
Well, its officially desperation time for the Chargers. They are at home against a Colts team who they've had great success again, so San Diego will tease its fans one more time.
San Diego 31, Indianapolis 24

Green Bay (+2.5) at New Orleans
Neither of these teams have been able to put a real streak of above-average play together. They both won last week, but I think the Packers are slightly more solid.
Green Bay 28, New Orleans 26

Overall: 87-70-1. Record against spread: 68-88-2.

Kind of a small Pac-10 slate this week, which might not be a bad thing, as I was a gross 3-7 against the spread. Disgusting I know.

Oregon State (+2.5) at Arizona
The Beavers' unlikely road to a Rose Bowl continues against an improved Arizona squad that should be bowling for the first time in 10 years. I'm pretty sure the Rose Bowl committee is crossing fingers, making voodoo hexes and doing whatever it can to prevent Oregon State from winning out. However, the Beavers are going to continue to make them nervous.
Oregon State 31, Arizona 26

Stanford (+8.5) at California
The Cardinal broke through in this game last year, putting the finishing touches on a regular season-ending 1-6 stretch for Cal. Well, Cal has lost two in a row and Stanford is playing for its bowl life. I don't think Stanford will win per se, but I think a cover is definitely in the works.
California 28, Stanford 21

Washington (-7) at Washington State
Besides watching REV graduate Ronnie Fouch trying to pilot U-Dub to its first win, there's no real reason to watch this game. Please, find something else to do. Do some work around the house. Go to the gym. Netflix "Facts of Life: Season 3" and watch that. This game could be the worst in-state rivalry game in the history of the United States. I love hyperbole.
Washington 30, Washington State 20

Texas Tech (+6.5) at Oklahoma
The lastest game of the year in the Big 12 is in Norman this week, as Oklahoma has a prime opportunity to really throw a monkey wrench in the BCS. Texas Tech is a legitimate title contender, but hardly anyone gets out of Norman alive. I see the Sooners pulling away late for the cover.
Oklahoma 38, Texas Tech 27

Michigan (+20.5) at Ohio State
The best rivalry in college football is a footnote this week, as the Wolverines have struggled big-time under first-year head coach Rich Rodriguez. A 3-8 Michigan team has to go to Columbus and play a team it's lost four in a row to and six of the last seven. And they have to do that with a backup, former walk-on QB. I'd like to see this game be close, but its not going to happen.
Ohio State 35, Michigan 13

Michigan State (+15.5) at Penn State
The Spartans still have a chance at the Rose Bowl with an upset win and a Michigan win. Not sure who the Rose Bowl committee would root for here, as Michigan State doesn't have much national panache and Penn State, while more of a national program, has already destroyed Oregon State already this year. It won't matter. MSU doesn't have the panache to take this game on the road.
Penn State 34, Michigan State 17

Florida State (-1.5) at Maryland
The Terps aren't that hard to figure out for most people, having a great record at home and losing to teams such as Middle Tennessee on the road. Of course, I picked against Maryland at home last week, so I'm an idiot. I'm not making that mistake twice, especially against an inconsistent FSU squad.
Maryland 17, Florida State 13

BYU (+7) at Utah
The battle for the Beehive State has huge BCS complications, as Utah is one win away from qualifying for a major bowl. However, that win is going to be a tough one against bitter rival and two-time defending conference champion BYU. The Cougars played very well last week against Air Force and will carry it over for the upset win.
BYU 21, Utah 20

Pittsburgh (+6) at Cincinnati
This game should be more competitive, as least from the Cincinnati perspective, than the NFL matchup between the two cities yesterday. The Bearcats, despite losing their top two QBs for the year with injuries, continue to roll. The Panthers, despite breaking through this year, have Dave Wannstedt as coach. That's enough to make me go with Cincy.
Cincinnati 28, Pittsburgh 17

Mississippi (+3.5) at LSU
LSU was down 28 to Troy last week before coming back to win. There are a couple of ways to look at it. a) LSU is a team with some crazy resilience or b) LSU has some issues. I'm going with B this week against a Rebels team that actually somehow beat Florida. That alone has me whistling Dixie, or whatever comes closest to that without actually whistling.
Mississippi 28, LSU 24

Overall record: 86-34. Against the spread: 59-60-1

Not a great week last week, but what else is new? At least I'm safely above .500 straight up at this point.

Denver (+6.5) at Atlanta
I've resisted the Falcons all year and have paid for it in my crappy record. So I'm on board Atlanta. Plus, Denver's porous run D + Atlanta's running game equals a big day in the Dirty South.
Atlanta 30, Denver 20

Oakland (+10) at Miami
The Raiders pick off four passes last week and still lose by double-digits? Yikes. Against a good Miami team, this could get ugly quick.
Miami 27, Oakland 6

Baltimore (+7) at N.Y. Giants
It's amazing how well Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan have played as rookie quarterbacks. Playing the defending champs will be tough on Flacco, but I think the Ravens hang around enough to cover.
N.Y. Giants 23, Baltimore 17

Houston (+8) at Indianapolis
Are the Colts truly back to being the Colts? Well, wins over the Patriots and Steelers aren't to be taken lightly. I can't see Houston being much of a road threat.
Indianapolis 31, Houston 16

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
I realize the Jags killed the Lions, but I don't think they are still all the way back. Tennessee tends to play well against Jacksonville even when they aren't unbeaten.
Tennessee 20, Jacksonville 14

Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay
The Packers have got to be pretty desperate at this point. However, desperation doesn't matter when you can't stop the run. With Miller grad Nick Barnett out for the season, a thin Green Bay D gets thinner.
Chicago 24, Green Bay 21

Philadelphia (-9) at Cincinnati
The Eagles beat the crap out of bad teams, lose to good teams. Cincinnati is definitely a bad team.
Philadelphia 33, Cincinnati 17

New Orleans (-5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs have shown some spunk lately, taking the Bucs to OT and coming a 2-point conversion short of shocking the Chargers. I'm taking the upset here.
Kansas City 24, New Orleans 20

Detroit (+14) at Carolina
The Lions very well could go 0-16. I'm not kidding, I don't see a win on their schedule from here on out. Carolina certainly isn't going to be the win.
Carolina 35, Detroit 13

Minnesota (+4) at Tampa Bay
I don't think its possible for the Vikings to go on a winning streak. Therefore, I don't see this win happening.
Tampa Bay 21, Minnesota 14

St. Louis (+6.5) at San Francisco
I don't trust either team at this point. How can you? I'll go with the underdog to cover just cause.
San Francisco 20, St. Louis 17

Arizona (-3) at Seattle
The good news for the Seahawks is that Matt Hasselbeck is back. The bad news is that Seattle is still lacking good wide receiver play.
Arizona 24, Seattle 14

San Diego (+5) at Pittsburgh
The Chargers have to come on sometime right? This is way too talented to be an 4-5 team. However, I don't see the Steelers losing two in a row at home. So we'll go with Pittsburgh to win, the Diego to cover.
Pittsburgh 26, San Diego 24

Dallas (-1.5) at Washington
Tony Romo is back. Clinton Portis is not playing. But are the Cowboys really capable mentally of making a run? There's no questioning the talent. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
Dallas 27, Washington 19

Cleveland (+5) at Buffalo
Two teams that need a win bad. I was impressed with Brady Quinn in his first start - the Cleveland D, not so much. I think this battle of Lake Erie could be entertaining.
Buffalo 24, Cleveland 21

Overall: 77-66. Record against spread: 62-79-2.

More party on the bloggy, where we don't ask for trouble and don't bother nobody. It's been a party in the college ranks lately, where a second straight winning week against the spread (6-4 this time) has me a few games over .500. Hip hop hooray.

USC (-24) at Stanford
I can see the Trojan fans getting the shakes already from the memory. 41-point favorites. John David Booty playing with a broken thumb and throw picks up for grabs. Stanford making a fourth-and-goal from the 10 to go ahead 23-21. Yeah, if I were a USC fan, I'd punch myself in the face for bringing those memories up. Just imagine how the players feel. You know USC will be balls to the wall in this one.
USC 41, Stanford 13

UCLA (-7) at Washington
If you have insomnia, this might be the game to watch this weekend, if it's even on (haven't checked the TV listings yet). In UCLA, you have a team that just hasn't figured it out on offense - not having an offensive line will do that to ya - while Washington is the only team in Division I-A not to have a win. They can blame North Texas, which had the temerity to beat Western Kentucky two weeks ago. Anyway, I picked U-Dub against the spread last week and looked dumb. Not doing it again.
UCLA 21, Washington 10

California (+3) at Oregon State
Did you know the Beavers control their Rose Bowl destiny? I'm sure I mentioned it last week but it definitely deserves to be said again. How terrible would a Michigan State-Oregon State Rose Bowl be for the networks? It could happen. This was the game last year that sent Cal's season into a downward spiral, as QB Kevin Riley had a brain fart and ran out time deep in Oregon State territory when a FG would have caused OT. It won't be that dramatic this time.
Oregon State 28, California 20

Arizona (+6) at Oregon
While we are talking about seasons that were destroyed suddenly, this marks the one-year anniversary (give or take a couple days) of when Dennis Dixon's knee exploded when the No. 2 Ducks were in Arizona. Oregon, likely on its way to a BCS title game, never recovered until the Sun Bowl, which is in El Paso. FYI, El Paso is not cool. Arizona is improved and will cover, though after two straight wins over the Ducks, won't make it three in a row.
Oregon 31, Arizona 27

Washington State (+36.5) at Arizona State
It was a big week at Washington State. First of all, the men's basketball team season is starting up. Second of all, the Cougars covered. Yeah, they still gave up over 50 points, but progress is progress. Arizona State broke a six-game losing streak and has offensive talent, so this is going to be ugly. Oh well.
Arizona State 54, Washington State 14

South Carolina (+22.5) at Florida
This is the only matchup of two ranked teams this week, which pretty much stinks, because there's a good possibility this game won't be very competitive. However, Steve Spurrier has done decent against his alma mater, beating them in 2005, almost beating them in 2006 and getting smacked last year. He'll probably get somewhat smacked, as Florida is rolling, but the Gators could fall prey to Ole Miss disease.
Florida 38, South Carolina 17

Texas (-13.5) at Kansas
The Longhorns are actually sitting pretty, as they are No. 3 in the BCS right now despite losing two weeks ago. However, they should be somewhat annoyed with Kansas, who killed any sort of quality-win bump Texas could have gotten here by losing to Nebraska. I'm guessing the 'Horns won't show much sympathy towards the Jayhawks, whose defense has been absolutely shelled over the last month.
Texas 41, Kansas 23

North Carolina (-3) at Maryland
I would have picked Boston College-Florida State for the ACC game, but it was taken off the board because a bunch of Florida State players were suspended after taking part in a fight on campus. So you get this game, which isn't a bad one. Maryland is tough at home (ask Cal) and will be a nice test for a Tar Heel team coming off a couple of big home wins. However, I think Butch Davis and Carolina prevail.
North Carolina 24, Maryland 19

Ohio State (-9.5) at Illinois
The Buckeyes still have Rose Bowl and at-large BCS hopes, but they face their nemesis this week. Illinois has always been a thorn in Ohio State's side, as evidenced by its win at Columbus last year. The Fighting Illini have been extremely up-and-down this year, capable of putting up 50 points one week and losing to Western Michigan the next. I feel Illinois will be up and will pull the upset against a Buckeye team that's inconsistent offensively.
Illinois 27, Ohio State 21

BYU (-4) at Air Force
The Mountain West should really get a BCS berth this year and it would be an absolute tragedy if it doesn't, as the MWC is better than the Big Ten, Pac-10 and Big East this year and not that far behind the ACC. Air Force has emerged as a really good No. 4 team in this league, as Troy Calhoun might be the best coach you've never heard of. BYU has a huge rivalry game with Utah next week, so it'll be caught looking ahead.
Air Force 26, BYU 23

Overall record: 79-31. Against the spread: 56-53-1

Internet in the Berka household is flighty tonight. So here are quickie picks.

Jacksonville (-6.5) at Detroit: Detroit 23, Jacksonville 20
Baltimore (-1) at Houston: Houston 21, Baltimore 17
Tennessee (-3) at Chicago: Tennessee 24, Chicago 14
Buffalo (+4) at New England: New England 21, Buffalo 13
New Orleans (+1.5) at Atlanta: New Orleans 24, Atlanta 21
St. Louis (+9) at N.Y. Jets: N.Y. Jets 28, St. Louis 20
Seattle (+7.5) at Miami: Miami 24, Seattle 17
Green Bay (+2.5) at Minnesota: Green Bay 23, Minnesota 21
Carolina (-9.5) at Oakland: Carolina 30, Oakland 10
Kansas City (+15) at San Diego: San Diego 38, Kansas City 20
Indianapolis (+4.5) at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh 26, Indianapolis 20
N.Y. Giants (+3) at Philadelphia: Philadelphia 24, N.Y. Giants 20
San Francisco (+9.5) at Arizona: Arizona 31, San Francisco 14

Overall: 70-60. Record against spread: 57-71-2.

I rocked it out last week, as my 7-3 record against the spread put me above. 500. Time to party, but after I make these picks of course.

California (+22) at USC
I've been pretty high on Cal this year, ranking them higher in my poll than the regular polls do. But this game sets up to be a butt-kicking. USC is angry about a perceived BCS slight and will be looking to do whatever they can to turn heads. Since Cal is the only ranked team left on the Trojans' schedule, they'll suffer for that.
USC 38, California 10

Oregon State (-7.5) at UCLA
This game may be dependent on who gets most of the time at QB for the Beavers. If its Lyle Moevao, Oregon State wins and likely covers. If its Sean Canfield, UCLA probably wins. So I will compromise a bit on this. I'll predict Oregon State to win, but I'll predict the Bruins to give them a battle.
Oregon State 23, UCLA 20

Stanford (+14) at Oregon
The Oregon passing game has pretty much gone to hell over the past few weeks. They can run the ball well, probably better than any team in the Pac-10, but without that passing threat and without a lockdown defense, I don't see them blowing out Stanford. Oregon wins, Cardinal cover.
Oregon 34, Stanford 23

Arizona (-41) at Washington State
Seriously, I really don't know what to say about Washington State anymore. They are so unbelievably bad that I can't even raise an eyebrow at this point spread. They should just forfeit the rest of this season.
Arizona 59, Washington State 3

Arizona State (-14.5) at Washington
It's very rare that a team can be on a six-game losing streak and still be favored on the road by over two touchdowns. If that statement alone doesn't tell you how bad Washington football is, then I really don't know what to say. Still, this game is goofy. I shouldn't take points with the Huskies, but I'm going to. Ugh.
Arizona State 20, Washington 7

Oklahoma State (+3) at Texas Tech
A couple weeks back, Texas had a big win against Oklahoma and had Missouri at home the week after. I predicted the Longhorns to be flat and lose. I was way wrong, as UT murdered Mizzou. Well, Texas Tech is coming off a huge win against Texas and has Oklahoma State, who is also a top 10 team, coming in. Not making the mistake with Tech that I did with Texas.
Texas Tech 42, Oklahoma State 30

Alabama (-3.5) at LSU
Apparently the LSU people are upset with Nick Saban for coaching Alabama. They should be more upset with a defense that has given up over 50 points in a game twice this year, including two weeks ago at home against Georgia. Alabama is better than Georgia. Emotion will lift LSU early, but Alabama just has too many horses.
Alabama 35, LSU 20

Penn State (-7.5) at Iowa
With Ohio State vanquished a couple of weeks ago, it seems like Penn State has a free ride to a possible national championship game. However, this game could be a tricky one. Iowa plays good defense, runs the ball well, is tough to beat at home and traditionally gives Penn State fits. The Nittany Lions will have to sweat this one out, but will prevail.
Penn State 21, Iowa 16

Georgia Tech (+4) at North Carolina
The ACC has been one big massive jumble of whatever, with 6 or 7 teams having two losses in the conference. A couple of those will take the field in this game. It's weird seeing these two schools play in a big game on the gridiron instead of the hardwood, but it should be a good one. I'll take the Heels hitting free throws down the stretch.
North Carolina 24, Georgia Tech 17

Georgia (+12) at Kentucky
Kind of a random last game but hey, I needed to pick 10. The Bulldogs will do one of two things after getting destroyed by Florida last week - just kick the living daylights out of Kentucky or tank it and maybe lose. I'm picking the latter to happen, even going out on a limb and taking the Wildcats.
Kentucky 20, Georgia 17

Overall record: 71-29. Against the spread: 50-49-1

Terrible week against the spread, but better overall. I don't know, I still stink at this. We'll try harder this week.

Houston (+4.5) at Minnesota
If you are a Texans fan, you have to be just sick about the loss to the Colts where Sage Rosenfels turned into Santa Claus. Without that, you'd have a Houston team with a four-game win streak. Now they have three, but I don't see them getting a fourth in the dome.
Minnesota 24, Houston 17

Jacksonville (-7.5) at Cincinnati
The Jags have been one of the most maddeningly inconsistent teams in the NFL. Winless Cincinnati, not so much. With Ryan Fitzpatrick still captaining the Bengals and Jacksonville desperate, you know how I'm calling this.
Jacksonville 26, Cincinnati 10

Tampa Bay (-9) at Kansas City
The Chiefs showed some spunk last week. Of course, it helped to have Brett Favre gift-wrap a pick six. I don't see the Buccaneers gunslinging that much in this game, therefore, I don't see KC managing much of anything.
Tampa Bay 24, Kansas City 13

Baltimore (+1.5) at Cleveland
I must admit, Joe Flacco's diving catch against the Raiders last week was pretty sweet. Cleveland has quietly played much better lately and could be in line to get back in the wild-card hunt. The Browns will have to beat the Ravens to do that, something I think they can handle.
Cleveland 17, Baltimore 14

N.Y, Jets (+5) at Buffalo
This is a huge game for the Jets, who have struggled since coming back from their bye week. Buffalo dropped a division game to Miami as well and might be reeling a little bit. I'll go with the home team here in a close, but no cover, situation.
Buffalo 21, N.Y. Jets 19

Arizona (-3) at St. Louis
This was a no-brainer Cardinals pick a couple weeks ago, but the resurgent Rams are 2-1 since Jim Haslett took over despite playing three quality teams in the Redskins, Cowboys and Patriots. However, I like Kurt Warner to have a big game against his old team.
Arizona 28, St. Louis 21

Detroit (+12.5) at Chicago
Yes, the Lions are winless and most likely hopeless. But Detroit has been more competitive of late, almost beating Minnesota and Houston on the road and giving Washington a decent game at home. I'm not picking a Lions win, but they'll cover.
Chicago 23, Detroit 14

Green Bay (+4) at Tennessee
Is it me, or are the Titans the most anonymous 7-0 team in recent memory? Tennessee isn't flashy at all - it just wins by running the ball and playing outstanding defense. The Packers have been good under Aaron Rodgers, but its hard to pick against the Titans here. I'm learning my lesson from last week.
Tennessee 24, Green Bay 14

Miami (+3.5) at Denver
I've had a hard time getting a handle on the Dolphins. They have some great wins against AFC contenders, but they are just as likely to stink up the joint. The bloom is off the Denver rose a bit and the Broncos' defense is a walking disaster area. I think the Wildcat offense leads the Dolphins to the road upset.
Miami 28, Denver 20

Atlanta (-3) at Oakland
The Falcons are the type of team that should annoy a Raiders fan. They looked hopeless coming in, but thanks to a few good draft picks and a solid coaching hire in Mike Smith, look like players in the NFC. The Raiders aren't players, haven't been players for a while and probably won't be until Al Davis ceases to have his hands on the franchise.
Atlanta 21, Oakland 10

Dallas (+8.5) at N.Y. Giants
You got to hand it to the Cowboys defense, which gutted out a victory over Tampa Bay despite getting no help from the offense. With Brooks Bollinger possibly starting and injured TE Jason Witten possibly sitting, it'll be more of the same. I think the Cowboys keep it close but fall.
N.Y. Giants 23, Dallas 16

Philadelphia (-7) at Seattle
I just hope Andy Reid doesn't feel the need to drop his pants at any time during this game, like Mike Singletary did last week. Would be bad times for everyone. Even with a win last week, this season has been bad times for the Seahawks and Philly won't help it get any better.
Philadelphia 31, Seattle 19

New England (+6) at Indianapolis
What was thought to be a battle of elite Super Bowl contenders has Matt Cassel playing against a Colts team that can't stop the run and can't quite get untracked. Joseph Addai comes back for Indy though, giving them a much-needed win over their archrivals.
Indianapolis 27, New England 17

Pittsburgh (+2) at Washington
Apparently Chris Berman is going to interview Barack Obama and John McCain at halftime of this game. The only thing I can think of that would be worse than that is Stuart Scott interviewing Sarah Palin. I get the shakes just thinking about it. Oh yeah, the game. I like the home team in what should be an entertaining one.
Washington 24, Pittsburgh 21

Overall record: 60-56. Against the spread: 50-64-2